General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)

[Laika]

9 hours ago, Gen.Disarray said:

So for the Jays to make the playoffs and do some damage when they get there, a lot of things need to go right, or at least not go horribly wrong. Vladdy keeps it up, Bo bounces back, Rotation health, big step up from the pen, possible surprise season from someone, etc.

Question - Other than Vlad or Bo, who do you think is the most likely candidate to put up a 5+ win season and what would it look like? 

Varsho or Gimenez? Defense as usual and they hit better than expected.

Kirk? Maintains defense with a big offensive season.

Springer? Huge bounce back despite the batspeed.

Someone else, one of the kids maybe? I feel like last season is probably Santander's ceiling, maybe Orelvis comes up and just mashes like crazy?

Whatchu got, people?

Kirk or Gimenez. Two way season built on elite D.

I don't think Varsho or Springer can get there. Varsho has too many holes in the swing. 

Could also be Gausman 

[BB17]

Wonder if the Jays have approached Kirk about an extension and what that would look like. You kind of worry about the body long term but he’s actually going to hit FA at a pretty young age of 28. Catchers don’t age that well but if you buy him out of let’s say 4 FA years it might be worth it, especially with how tough it is to get a good C and the Jays having nothing in the farm system at the position.

Buying 3/4 FA years out at 20-25M per season seems like a smart deal given how good his defence is and there is upside with the bat to be a 4 Win player.

[max silver]

2 minutes ago, BB17 said:

Wonder if the Jays have approached Kirk about an extension and what that would look like. You kind of worry about the body long term but he’s actually going to hit FA at a pretty young age of 28. Catchers don’t age that well but if you buy him out of let’s say 4 FA years it might be worth it, especially with how tough it is to get a good C and the Jays having nothing in the farm system at the position.

Buying 3/4 FA years out at 20-25M per season seems like a smart deal given how good his defence is and there is upside with the bat to be a 4 Win player.

I don't think it would likely take anywhere approaching $20-25 million per season to extend Kirk. Other than a few exceptions catchers generally aren't paid that well in free agency or extensions. I'd wager something closer to $12-15 million AAV would likely get things done.

[Rusty_Savage]

Yah $20-$25 million per year seems too dear for Kirk.  There's only two catchers who make over 20M a season...Realmuto and Perez.

[BB17]

1 hour ago, max silver said:

I don't think it would likely take anywhere approaching $20-25 million per season to extend Kirk. Other than a few exceptions catchers generally aren't paid that well in free agency or extensions. I'd wager something closer to $12-15 million AAV would likely get things done.

Usually Catchers don't reach FA until much later in their careers as well though. And now that teams seem to really be paying for younger FA that's why I said 20M.

I don't think Kirk would sign for 12M and just tests FA if that's the offer. Contreras got 5/87.5 starting in his age 31 year while Kirk is going to be a FA starting at 28. I'd still be weary of paying Kirk into his early 30s thats why I think if you get 3 FA years at 20M per season its still a pretty good deal considering you are getting his prime without the risk at the end of the deal.

[Perfect Game]

No official news yet but I've seen a few people talking about it as if it's a done deal.

 

[Gen.Disarray]

13 hours ago, Carlos Danger said:

If this were a trade deadline I would agree.  From Vlad’s side, the only thing that happens is that they go to FA or waive their self imposed deadline later in the season. Where is the pressure for Vlad’s side to budge…???? 

The pressure is that he under performs or gets hurt. If the Jay are offering him $450mil he should probably just take it. It's not a given he'll get $500mil in free agency. What if he puts up a 2 WAR season or gets hurt and plays like 50 games? You think he's even getting $400mil from some team? Maybe, probably not. 

[Pendleton]

30 minutes ago, Perfect Game said:

No official news yet but I've seen a few people talking about it as if it's a done deal.

 

Well that's just not a good friend move

[max silver]

48 minutes ago, BB17 said:

Usually Catchers don't reach FA until much later in their careers as well though. And now that teams seem to really be paying for younger FA that's why I said 20M.

I don't think Kirk would sign for 12M and just tests FA if that's the offer. Contreras got 5/87.5 starting in his age 31 year while Kirk is going to be a FA starting at 28. I'd still be weary of paying Kirk into his early 30s thats why I think if you get 3 FA years at 20M per season its still a pretty good deal considering you are getting his prime without the risk at the end of the deal.

Sean Murphy signed a 6 year $73 million extension with the Braves starting in his age 28 season. That is an AAV at just over $12 million. He's produced several seasons better than Kirk's peak season up to this point and doesn't carry the same type of long term bad body concerns.

[BB17]

23 minutes ago, max silver said:

Sean Murphy signed a 6 year $73 million extension with the Braves starting in his age 28 season. That is an AAV at just over $12 million. He's produced several seasons better than Kirk's peak season up to this point and doesn't carry the same type of long term bad body concerns.

AA also signed tons of other young stars so maybe he just is a really good negotiator and can get these guys to sign below average deals. I'm of the opinion Id rather pay a little bit more now and get a deal that still can provide surplus value and fill a hole/position. The closer a player gets to FA the likely chance he tests the market, look no further than Bo/Vladdy.

If Kirk says I'll sign for the following right now, but the other option is him testing FA after next season are you signing him or letting it ride out?

2026 $8M

2027 18M

2028 20M

2029 20M

2030 and 2031 25M club options with a 2M buyout 

[max silver]

1 hour ago, BB17 said:

AA also signed tons of other young stars so maybe he just is a really good negotiator and can get these guys to sign below average deals. I'm of the opinion Id rather pay a little bit more now and get a deal that still can provide surplus value and fill a hole/position. The closer a player gets to FA the likely chance he tests the market, look no further than Bo/Vladdy.

If Kirk says I'll sign for the following right now, but the other option is him testing FA after next season are you signing him or letting it ride out?

2026 $8M

2027 18M

2028 20M

2029 20M

2030 and 2031 25M club options with a 2M buyout 

If the choice were between signing Kirk to that type of deal or letting him reach free agency I'd let him reach free agency every single time. That just feels like a massive overpay relative to what he's accomplished up to this point. That type of AAV is limited to the elite catchers of the sport, and Kirk just isn't there yet. If he were to find a way to resurrect the bat to peak 2022 levels in combination with the elite defense he's been offering in recent seasons then *maybe* this type of deal looks a little more palatable, but as of right now that's far too much AAV for a guy who has maxed out as a 4 win player in his career season up to this point. He's never started more than 89 games behind the plate so it's a giant unknown how he will hold up with the increase in workload. With the mediocre backup options the team possesses at present  the team will need to be very careful to monitor his overall workload to avoid burning him out and increasing the likelihood of an injured list stint.

[Carlos Danger]

4 hours ago, Gen.Disarray said:

The pressure is that he under performs or gets hurt. If the Jay are offering him $450mil he should probably just take it. It's not a given he'll get $500mil in free agency. What if he puts up a 2 WAR season or gets hurt and plays like 50 games? You think he's even getting $400mil from some team? Maybe, probably not. 

Vlad is already from a rich family and made/is making a lot of money. He is only 26, so even if he had a season ending injury, he comes back in his 27/28 year. Additionally, he can always break his own rule and take a deal from the Jays in March, May etc. 

I just don't think guys like Vlad and Bichette are thinking like poor kids from the island who need to strike while the iron is hot. 

IMO the pressure is solely on the Jays for Monday. From Vlad's camp's point of view, I would suspect it is meet our number or we will take our chances.

The only caveat would be if the Alonzo and Bregman market spooked them a bit. However, again, I think Vlad is a different case...

[Perfect Game]

It' official. Minor league deal.

 

[Gen.Disarray]

15 minutes ago, Carlos Danger said:

Vlad is already from a rich family and made/is making a lot of money. He is only 26, so even if he had a season ending injury, he comes back in his 27/28 year. Additionally, he can always break his own rule and take a deal from the Jays in March, May etc. 

I just don't think guys like Vlad and Bichette are thinking like poor kids from the island who need to strike while the iron is hot. 

IMO the pressure is solely on the Jays for Monday. From Vlad's camp's point of view, I would suspect it is meet our number or we will take our chances.

The only caveat would be if the Alonzo and Bregman market spooked them a bit. However, again, I think Vlad is a different case...

I agree with lot of that.  But also being from a rich family doesn't make these guys want the money any less. If anything they want the big numbers more. It's often about ego and precedent. 

And yeah, he can always just come back and sign at 27/28, but it makes it a bit less likely he gets the quadrillion dollars he's looking for. Or he "settles" for a big number, one year prove it deal and possibly blows it again. 

[BB17]

7 hours ago, max silver said:

If the choice were between signing Kirk to that type of deal or letting him reach free agency I'd let him reach free agency every single time. That just feels like a massive overpay relative to what he's accomplished up to this point. That type of AAV is limited to the elite catchers of the sport, and Kirk just isn't there yet. If he were to find a way to resurrect the bat to peak 2022 levels in combination with the elite defense he's been offering in recent seasons then *maybe* this type of deal looks a little more palatable, but as of right now that's far too much AAV for a guy who has maxed out as a 4 win player in his career season up to this point. He's never started more than 89 games behind the plate so it's a giant unknown how he will hold up with the increase in workload. With the mediocre backup options the team possesses at present  the team will need to be very careful to monitor his overall workload to avoid burning him out and increasing the likelihood of an injured list stint.

I dunno 20M really isn't that much anymore, the Jays have been paying that for a number 3/4 SP on the FA market. Considering they really have no catching options in the pipeline and Kirk is a FA pretty soon I think its not a bad idea to try to get out in front on one of these deals for once. I understand trying to get him for cheaper but guaranteeing him 60M really isn't much, especially for those prime 28-30 age seasons. If he performs well you get his age 31 and 32 years for 25M which 6 years from now is likely what 20M is now in relative dollars. And catchers tend to decline pretty quickly at 32-34 so you aren't committed to paying for any decline years

Giminez isn't that much different of a player from him and you just gave up an asset to buy those same 3 FA years (same age) at 23.6M with only 1 club option. What the Jays really need is star players at the very least solid above average talent so I think locking up Kirk who is 3 Win player with potential for 4/5 would be a solid move.

[Brownie19]

I don't hate the idea of extending Kirk.

[Jonn]

Kirk is very important to extend. But he will be more in the 12-15 M range. On a 3-4 year deal. He would have to put up a monster offensive Season to go as high as 20m which I still think would be excessive. He looks like he’s in better shape thus far. And he’s getting an early start to Spring. I remember him getting off to late starts to Spring in previous years. I could see him having his best offensive Season. He knows he’s very much the guy now.

[jerb]

 

[june.june]

Now that Devers has refused to move out of 3rd base, can we trade Bichette to Boston for him?

they can convince Story to move to second and Bichette to SS while Bergman can play 3rd.

 

[Spanky99]

4 hours ago, jerb said:

 

That shouldn't keep him out too long and it isn't his arm, but still FAAAAAck!

[jaysblue]

Kirk ain't getting $20-25M per season lol. 

Maybe $10-12M max. 

[Orgfiller]

2 hours ago, Spanky99 said:

That shouldn't keep him out too long and it isn't his arm, but still FAAAAAck!

Meniscus tear would be a couple of months out at least no? At least if it requires surgery.

[Brownie19]

2 hours ago, jaysblue said:

Kirk ain't getting $20-25M per season lol. 

Maybe $10-12M max. 

Perfect. He's an easy 4 year extension at $10M - $12M AAV

[Spanky99]

24 minutes ago, Orgfiller said:

Meniscus tear would be a couple of months out at least no? At least if it requires surgery.

Yeah, back by Juneish I'd imagine.

[Spanky99]

5 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Perfect. He's an easy 4 year extension at $10M - $12M AAV

4 years 50M, sign me up.

[Spanky99]

Jacob Barnes signed a minor league deal with us today.

[Stangstag]

On 2/16/2025 at 4:45 PM, Perfect Game said:

It' official. Minor league deal.

 

Oh lawd. Incoming Yankees brawl at some point this season

[Jonn]

Clock is about to strike midnight Cinderella.

[Spanky99]

Camp starts tomorrow morning at the PDA in Dunedin... 😎

First game on the 22nd is televised. So like 4 damn days man... Woohoo!

[jerb]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/watch-live-blue-jays-vladimir-guerrero-jr-speaks-to-the-media/