General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)

[Terminator]

13 minutes ago, glory said:

Yeah Bregman doesn't want a short-term pillow deal apparently, so as much as I think he will be an albatross by the end of whatever deal he signs, he still probably makes the most sense if you're going to lose a draft pick for it. Alonso will almost certainly want an opt out after year 1 so you have to weigh that into the equation. I'd probably just overpay Scherzer for a year before I give up a pick for Pivetta. 

I think that's exactly right if you have to give up a 2nd and 500k in international money for Pivetta. Teams will be baking that into their contract offers.

But now that we signed Santander, I believe we'd only have to give up a 3rd rounder. If we signed Alonso too, I don't think there's any penalty for signing Pivetta at that point. 

So we might be able to get Pivetta for cheaper than you think. If it was 3 years and 50 mil or something that would be a steal compared to Manaea and Eovaldi who got 3 years, 75 mil.

[BatFlip]

1 minute ago, Terminator said:

I think that's exactly right if you have to give up a 2nd and 500k in international money for Pivetta.

But now that we signed Santander, I believe we'd only have to give up a 3rd rounder. If we signed Alonso too, I don't think there's any penalty for signing Pivetta at that point. Whereas a lot of teams would have to give up a 2nd and international money to sign him so it could surpress his market.

In an offseason where Manaea and Eovaldi are getting 3 years, 75 mil, 3 years and 50 mil or something for Pivetta would look pretty darn good IMO.

Yeah, I agree, we might end up with some reasonable value there relative to what the other arms have been signing for.

[Laika]

The Alonso will be easy to sign 

[Ryu In My House]

Vladdy signed a $28.5M deal, avoiding arbitration. If the Jays do extend him to a 10-year, 12-year, whatever, would they still have the option to defer some of that 2025 salary, like pay him $5-10M for 2025 instead of the $28.5 and backend that f***er? I mean, that would be an amazing way to free up CBT space, extend Vladdy, etc. Assuming Vladdy would be in agreement, to have a better team around him, would MLB allow this?

[John_Havok]

5 hours ago, Ryu In My House said:

Vladdy signed a $28.5M deal, avoiding arbitration. If the Jays do extend him to a 10-year, 12-year, whatever, would they still have the option to defer some of that 2025 salary, like pay him $5-10M for 2025 instead of the $28.5 and backend that f***er? I mean, that would be an amazing way to free up CBT space, extend Vladdy, etc. Assuming Vladdy would be in agreement, to have a better team around him, would MLB allow this?

Doubtful. Both MLB and the PA would be against it. 

[Abomination]

6 hours ago, Ryu In My House said:

Vladdy signed a $28.5M deal, avoiding arbitration. If the Jays do extend him to a 10-year, 12-year, whatever, would they still have the option to defer some of that 2025 salary, like pay him $5-10M for 2025 instead of the $28.5 and backend that f***er? I mean, that would be an amazing way to free up CBT space, extend Vladdy, etc. Assuming Vladdy would be in agreement, to have a better team around him, would MLB allow this?

I don't think the team would have front loaded Santander if they were worried about the CBT this year.

[Jays24]

2 minutes ago, Abomination said:

I don't think the team would have front loaded Santander if they were worried about the CBT this year.

I doubt they would have traded for Straw if CBT was an issue... right? Lol

[Brownie19]

2 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

I doubt they would have traded for Straw if CBT was an issue... right? Lol

The CBT won't matter one bit to start the year.  The question will be where we're at by the end of the year...

[Laika]

A decent chunk of these fringe bats and depth bats project as solid contributors. Wonder if it's all a mirage. 

 

NAME	PROJ. PA	PROJ. WAR	PROJ. WAR/600 PA	Projection system
Leo Jimenez	77	0.3	2.34	FGDC
Davis Schneider	217	0.4	1.11	FGDC
Ernie Clement	343	1.4	2.45	FGDC
Will Wagner	336	1.2	2.14	FGDC
Orelvis Martinez	210	0.5	1.43	FGDC
Addison Barger	196	0.6	1.84	FGDC
Joey Loperfido	331	-0.1	-0.18	ATC
Jonatan Clase	113	0.1	0.53	ATC
Alan Roden	123	0.5	2.44	ATC
Josh Kasevich	85 wRC+, not bad			Steamer

[Orgfiller]

6 minutes ago, Laika said:

A decent chunk of these fringe bats and depth bats project as solid contributors. Wonder if it's all a mirage. 

 

NAME	PROJ. PA	PROJ. WAR	PROJ. WAR/600 PA	Projection system
Leo Jimenez	77	0.3	2.34	FGDC
Davis Schneider	217	0.4	1.11	FGDC
Ernie Clement	343	1.4	2.45	FGDC
Will Wagner	336	1.2	2.14	FGDC
Orelvis Martinez	210	0.5	1.43	FGDC
Addison Barger	196	0.6	1.84	FGDC
Joey Loperfido	331	-0.1	-0.18	ATC
Jonatan Clase	113	0.1	0.53	ATC
Alan Roden	123	0.5	2.44	ATC
Josh Kasevich	85 wRC+, not bad			Steamer

I mean this is essentially what decent depth looks like right? Bunch of young guys, most with options, who can play multiple positions and have shown success at the highest levels of MiLB. Of course they won't all be this good, but all you need is 3 hits from this group. We can group them even further:

Can play SS:

• Jimenez
• Kasevich
• Clement

Can play 2B/3B:

• Barger (3B only, badly)
• Schneider (2B only)
• Wagner (2B only?)
• Orelvis
• Clement
• Jimenez
• Kasevich

Can play corner OF:

• Barger (badly, probably)
• Schneider (badly?)
• Roden

Can play CF:

• Loperfido
• Clase

The CF depth is rather weak, which isn't to excuse the Straw deal, but it does explain it a bit. Ernie is also currently slotted in at 3B, but at least there's options to take over SS and have others cover at 3B if Bo were to get injured (or traded).

[Laika]

Yes and it illustrates why guys like JDM, Justin Turner, Rizzo, Grichuk, Hays, Canha, Pham, Verdugo, maybe Ha-Seong Kim / Profar even make little to no sense since they just don't even upgrade a roster spot in any obvious way. 

Alonso/Bregman or nothing. 

[Orgfiller]

Seeing we're connected to Profar still, and my question is...how would he fit? Don't get me wrong, I'd take him all day at a bargain contract, but it's a bit of an awkward fit after the recent transaction. Both he and Santander are bad OF defenders, with Profar rating even more unfavourably than the former. The obvious answer of course would be to split OF/DH duties with each other, but both players are starting calibre, so does it make sense to tie up the DH spot like this to not allow certain guys from getting days off the field?

With all of that said, the fit from an offensive point of view would be fantastic. Profar projects well offensively, takes lots of walks, and like Santander is a switch hitter. Profar offsets Tony Tater's low OBP, trading some power for it. He strikes out little which we've seen this FO target more and more recently. Would really round out our top ~5 hitter core. Probably go something like Profar-Bo-Vlad-Santander-Springer/Kirk.

[Terminator]

It will be interesting to see what they do with them all. If we don't sign anymore bats you could just keep them all and try to platoon them at 3B and DH/LF and keep the rest as depth on the bench or in AAA.

But if we sign someone like Alonso then we need to trade some as that will take up the DH spot and entrench Taters in LF.

Surely some of them could fetch an interesting bullpen arm or AAA starting pitcher.

 

[Orgfiller]

Edit: accidentally quoted myself instead of editing the previous post and now I don't know how to delete this one.

[glory]

9 minutes ago, Laika said:

Yes and it illustrates why guys like JDM, Justin Turner, Rizzo, Grichuk, Hays, Canha, Pham, Verdugo, maybe Ha-Seong Kim / Profar even make little to no sense since they just don't even upgrade a roster spot in any obvious way. 

Alonso/Bregman or nothing. 

If you believe Profar's 2024 is somewhat sustainable, then I think he's a clear upgrade, but with his track record that's a huge risk. His Statcast page for 2024 looks great though, no sign of a mirage. Whether he can keep that going in 2025-beyond is the question, and that's a legitimate risk. 

I tend to agree that the team is trying for one of Alonso or Bregman, probably more so Alonso since his deal should be shorter. They just have to be prepared for a Bellinger/Hoskins/Montgomery situation where Alonso doesn't opt out after the season because no team would give him more than what the Jays gave him. A Vladdy extension + Alonso opting out after 2025 because he kicked ass would be the obvious best case in that scenario. 

[Terminator]

6 minutes ago, Orgfiller said:

Seeing we're connected to Profar still, and my question is...how would he fit? Don't get me wrong, I'd take him all day at a bargain contract, but how would he fit on the roster? Both he and Santander are bad OF defenders, with Profar rating even more unfavourably than the former. The obvious answer of course would be to split OF/DH duties with each other, but both players are starting calibre, so does it make sense to tie up the DH spot like this to not allow certain guys from getting days off the field?

With all of that said, the fit from an offensive point of view would be fantastic. Profar projects well offensively, takes lots of walks, and like Santander is a switch hitter. Profar offsets Tony Tater's low OBP, trading some power for it. He strikes out little which we've seen this FO target more and more recently. Would really round out our top ~5 hitter core. Probably go something like Profar-Bo-Vlad-Santander-Springer/Kirk.

Yeah Profar in the leadoff spot is nice. And if you think his breakout is real (and it very well might be) you can get a really good hitter at a relatively decent price.

[Brownie19]

Report: Astros, Blue Jays showing interest in Profar
https://thescore.com/mlb/news/3196506

If you think the adjustments he made last year are sustainable, he may come at a very reasonable price.  He might be the type of upside flyer you need to take a chance on.

He isn't the power guy that Robert is, but he may provide the same "upside" without having to give up any prospects.

[Terminator]

The prices are dropping! We might be able to get Profar for a lot cheaper than we think.

I didn't expect us to get Taters for 5/70. Factor in deferrals and maybe we can get Profar for 3/36 which would be a steal compared to Joc Pederson (2/37), Teoscar (3/60), Tyler O'Neil (3/49), etc.  

[glory]

No team is going to pay Profar like 3-4 WAR player, so if 2024 was a late career breakout, then I agree there is very real surplus value potential there. Still pretty risky though. He could easily slither back to something closer to replacement level given his history. If the deal is something like 3/36 or 3/40, then it might be worth the gamble either way depending on the alternatives. 

[Angrioter]

Profar is 32

[Terminator]

6 minutes ago, Angrioter said:

Profar is 32

Maybe we could get him on a 2 year deal

[wilko]

3 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Maybe we could get him on a 2 year deal

2 year 14 million. 

[Eat My Shatkins]

Let's do Bregman with deferred money now.

Biggest hole left now is 3B, Bregman would be a pretty large upgrade on Clement.

Then maybe you look to trade Clement for a solid reliever?

[Terminator]

9 minutes ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

Let's do Bregman with deferred money now.

Biggest hole left now is 3B, Bregman would be a pretty large upgrade on Clement.

Then maybe you look to trade Clement for a solid reliever?

I'd be all for Bregman. Add him, a starting pitcher, and tinker with the bullpen and I think the team could compete for the AL East.

But I'm not sure the Jays are willing to pony up for him. Seems like Alonso and Profar are doable but I'm not sure about Bregman.

[Angrioter]

10 minutes ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

Let's do Bregman with deferred money now.

Biggest hole left now is 3B, Bregman would be a pretty large upgrade on Clement.

Then maybe you look to trade Clement for a solid reliever?

 Clement is a GG caliber defender and he can put 2 fWAR season. 

Low obp, but he's a decent cheap player.

 

[Laika]

What is Bregman's market at this point? 

Mariners? Yankees? Tigers? 

[max silver]

17 minutes ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

Let's do Bregman with deferred money now.

Biggest hole left now is 3B, Bregman would be a pretty large upgrade on Clement.

Then maybe you look to trade Clement for a solid reliever?

Perhaps if Clement were traded then Jiminez could fill the same type of role. I don't know if Jimenez offers the same level of defensive value but I believe he offers a little more offensive upside vs Clement.

[Terminator]

7 minutes ago, Laika said:

What is Bregman's market at this point? 

Mariners? Yankees? Tigers? 

Good question. The Tigers definitely seem like they are in on him. Maybe the Yankees? Mariners are too cheap.

 

[glory]

Bregman's market seems to involve more teams, and he's not looking for a pillow contract from the sounds of it. Probably just asking for too much in general. He's probably the best positional fit for the Jays but will almost certainly involve the most years and dollars, and there's real "Years 3-6 George Springer" potential with whatever deal he signs. 

Alonso's market is probably the Mets and the Jays. I don't see any other obvious fit. On a pillow contract he makes way more sense for the Mets since they won't lose a comp pick + international money to get him like the Jays would. 

Have no clue on Profar's market. Recent report had the Jays and Astros involved. Profar willingly signed with the Rockies at one point so I don't think he gives a damn where he goes, it will be about the contract. 

[wilko]

23 minutes ago, Terminator said:

I'd be all for Bregman. Add him, a starting pitcher, and tinker with the bullpen and I think the team could compete for the AL East.

But I'm not sure the Jays are willing to pony up for him. Seems like Alonso and Profar are doable but I'm not sure about Bregman.

He's still looking for a long term deal.. That might change in a few weeks.