General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)

[Ryu In My House]

Will the Jays do anything in the new year? Perhaps. Santander? JD Martinez? 

 

...discuss

[Laika]

They will do something, yes.

Max Scherzer

[Carlos Danger]

Those older vets who have made their money and make decisions based on convenience to home etc and winning a WS etc are not going to pick TO this year. 

[Ryu In My House]

Honestly, if they sign Santander and a couple of other relievers for the bullpen, they should stay around .500 - which excites me because I want to see both Bichette and Vladdy traded at the deadline and start rebuilding this lame team and a ~  .500 record is likely good for last place in the AL East which will force their hand and make changes necessary.

[Laika]

On the Fangraphs depth chart it says Toronto projects for 39.4 WAR, which would presently make them a team with a mid 80s win a count. I don't remember if the theoretical zero WAR team wins 45 or 47 games off the top of my head but either way it's like 84 to 87 wins. 

However, Fangraphs has the Jays 18th in WAR which doesn't line up with a mid 80s win count. The 18th best team in the league tends to be below .500 and win like 79 games, eyeballing it. Sometimes they win 81 games sometimes less than 79 games. This is probably where Toronto presently projects if you account for quality of competition and schedule imbalances. 

The spread between team projections is tight. The 12th team, Padres, are at 41 WAR and the 22nd team, Brewers, are at 38 WAR. Toronto is in the middle of this and with some bigger additions they could end the offseason as the 11th best projected team or something like that. The 11th best team in MLB seems to win 87 games or more most of the time. Sometimes 90 wins. 

Obviously, actual win totals get skewed by in-season moves. You can project for 85 wins pre-season then have a tough couple months to begin, end up as a seller, and win way less which is what Toronto did last year. 

The only point of this post is that it's hard to say what kind of impact the eventual moves will have. Adding Tony Taters to a 79 win team is stupid. Adding Tony Taters and two good relievers to an 85 win team is important and wise. Who f***ing knows? 

[JaysfaninFL]

Toronto fans continue to be bewildered by the Jays lack of action as they view the Front Office actions through the lens of an organization trying to build a winning baseball team.  But Rogers' approach belies their true intent, which is simply to run this team as a profitable business venture.  As the second richest team in MLB, the excuses of not being able to entice players to come north of the border rings hollow if they were truly invested in building a World Series contender.  Fans would best be advised to expect a league average team for the foreseeable future that is just another revenue producing asset in massive corporate conglomerate.

[saskjayfan]

11 minutes ago, Laika said:

On the Fangraphs depth chart it says Toronto projects for 39.4 WAR, which would presently make them a team with a mid 80s win a count. I don't remember if the theoretical zero WAR team wins 45 or 47 games off the top of my head but either way it's like 84 to 87 wins. 

However, Fangraphs has the Jays 18th in WAR which doesn't line up with a mid 80s win count. The 18th best team in the league tends to be below .500 and win like 79 games, eyeballing it. Sometimes they win 81 games sometimes less than 79 games. This is probably where Toronto presently projects if you account for quality of competition and schedule imbalances. 

The spread between team projections is tight. The 12th team, Padres, are at 41 WAR and the 22nd team, Brewers, are at 38 WAR. Toronto is in the middle of this and with some bigger additions they could end the offseason as the 11th best projected team or something like that. The 11th best team in MLB seems to win 87 games or more most of the time. Sometimes 90 wins. 

Obviously, actual win totals get skewed by in-season moves. You can project for 85 wins pre-season then have a tough couple months to begin, end up as a seller, and win way less which is what Toronto did last year. 

The only point of this post is that it's hard to say what kind of impact the eventual moves will have. Adding Tony Taters to a 79 win team is stupid. Adding Tony Taters and two good relievers to an 85 win team is important and wise. Who f***ing knows? 

The FWAR leaderboard!  The top 10 FWAR teams always make the playoffs.  Can't wait for the Jays to sign Kim.  I don't understand why we didn't make the playoffs.  We projected to win 85 games.  How did we only win 68 games?   We scored 612 runs and our bullpen was garbage.

[jaysblue]

13 hours ago, Laika said:

They will do something, yes.

Max Scherzer

More like Martin Perez or Jose Quintana.

[saskjayfan]

Can we talk about getting some freaking offense.  At this point I'd be happy with JD Martinez or even Grichuk.  If we need another starter just sign Turnbull on the cheap for a 1 year deal.

[jaysblue]

21 minutes ago, Laika said:

On the Fangraphs depth chart it says Toronto projects for 39.4 WAR, which would presently make them a team with a mid 80s win a count. I don't remember if the theoretical zero WAR team wins 45 or 47 games off the top of my head but either way it's like 84 to 87 wins. 

However, Fangraphs has the Jays 18th in WAR which doesn't line up with a mid 80s win count. The 18th best team in the league tends to be below .500 and win like 79 games, eyeballing it. Sometimes they win 81 games sometimes less than 79 games. This is probably where Toronto presently projects if you account for quality of competition and schedule imbalances. 

The spread between team projections is tight. The 12th team, Padres, are at 41 WAR and the 22nd team, Brewers, are at 38 WAR. Toronto is in the middle of this and with some bigger additions they could end the offseason as the 11th best projected team or something like that. The 11th best team in MLB seems to win 87 games or more most of the time. Sometimes 90 wins. 

Obviously, actual win totals get skewed by in-season moves. You can project for 85 wins pre-season then have a tough couple months to begin, end up as a seller, and win way less which is what Toronto did last year. 

The only point of this post is that it's hard to say what kind of impact the eventual moves will have. Adding Tony Taters to a 79 win team is stupid. Adding Tony Taters and two good relievers to an 85 win team is important and wise. Who f***ing knows? 

This team as it stands now is likely a 78-80 win team. 

Like you said, can't just add Anthony Santander. If they go out and spend the $80 or so million to sign Tony, need other moves to compliment that signing and get the team to around 85-86 wins. Not sure they do that and/or have the payroll to do all that. 

[jaysblue]

Just now, saskjayfan said:

Can we talk about getting some freaking offense.  At this point I'd be happy with JD Martinez or even Grichuk.  If we need another starter just sign Turnbull on the cheap for a 1 year deal.

Yeah given the payroll constraints, I think they can target a cheap starter instead. Someone like Turnbull or maybe Michael Lorenzen, who could flip between the rotation and BP if need be. Adding an extra arm for depth and allows the Jays to push Y-Rod to the BP. Can fill two needs with one move. 

[saskjayfan]

6 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

Yeah given the payroll constraints, I think they can target a cheap starter instead. Someone like Turnbull or maybe Michael Lorenzen, who could flip between the rotation and BP if need be. Adding an extra arm for depth and allows the Jays to push Y-Rod to the BP. Can fill two needs with one move. 

Yeah, Ok fine.  We scored 671 runs last year.  We are worse offensively than we were last year and our payroll is about 10 to 12 mil shy of where we were last year.  If we don't add some offense we're cooked.  Turnbull is 6 to 7 mil.   That gives us 5 mil to improve the offense.  We need to outspend last year by 40 mil to even have a chance.

[jaysblue]

2 minutes ago, saskjayfan said:

Yeah, Ok fine.  We scored 671 runs last year.  We are worse offensively than we were last year and our payroll is about 10 to 12 mil shy of where we were last year.  If we don't add some offense we're cooked.  Turnbull is 6 to 7 mil.   That gives us 5 mil to improve the offense.  We need to outspend last year by 40 mil to even have a chance.

Yeah exactly. 

If they were willing to stretch the payroll for someone like Ohtani or Soto, they shouldn't be worried about spending a bit more, even if it means going over the tax threshold for one season. 

[saskjayfan]

Just now, jaysblue said:

Yeah exactly. 

If they were willing to stretch the payroll for someone like Ohtani or Soto, they shouldn't be worried about spending a bit more, even if it means going over the tax threshold for one season. 

Getting under last year was key, but they need to get into the 2nd tax bracket to have a shot.  I'm not sure what the budget is.  If they are willing to do this there's no reason they haven't extended Vlad.  Vlad should have been the first move of the offseason.  Extending him should be the first move of 2025.  

[max silver]

14 minutes ago, saskjayfan said:

Yeah, Ok fine.  We scored 671 runs last year.  We are worse offensively than we were last year and our payroll is about 10 to 12 mil shy of where we were last year.  If we don't add some offense we're cooked.  Turnbull is 6 to 7 mil.   That gives us 5 mil to improve the offense.  We need to outspend last year by 40 mil to even have a chance.

I believe that payroll is 10 to 12 million shy of where the team ended last season, not where they started. I do think there was extra payroll available as the team took a shot at signing Matt Chapman late in the offseason as spring training was approaching. It feels increasingly unlikely anyone of note will be added as the best targets are rapidly dropping off of the board.

[Laika]

CBT Payroll is at like 228M if I remember correctly from the articles after the Gimenez/Garcia additions. 

So $13M to the luxury tax line but another $20M past that to the second threshold. 

I think they probably are willing to throw around another $23M or so. Maybe a bit more, maybe less. End up somewhere between the first two luxury tax lines but not so close to the second line that any in-season addition would put them over that. 

Also possible they care more about actual payroll than CBT payroll since they reset the penalties and got under the line last season. Gimenez' 2025 salary is like $9M under his CBT payroll allocation for example. So maybe they have a bit more in the 2025 budget than the above guess... ? 

[saskjayfan]

2 minutes ago, Laika said:

CBT Payroll is at like 228M if I remember correctly from the articles after the Gimenez/Garcia additions. 

So $13M to the luxury tax line but another $20M past that to the second threshold. 

I think they probably are willing to throw around another $23M or so. Maybe a bit more, maybe less. End up somewhere between the first two luxury tax lines but not so close to the second line that any in-season addition would put them over that. 

Also possible they care more about actual payroll than CBT payroll since they reset the penalties and got under the line last season. Gimenez' 2025 salary is like $9M under his CBT payroll allocation for example. So maybe they have a bit more in the 2025 budget than the above guess... ? 

The first CBT threshold is 241.  It includes player benefits and pension obligations which is a lot.  With that and arb projections the bluejays have 21 mil in cap space according to Spotrac.  This is actually a bit more than I thought it was. 

[Laika]

20 minutes ago, saskjayfan said:

The first CBT threshold is 241.  It includes player benefits and pension obligations which is a lot.  With that and arb projections the bluejays have 21 mil in cap space according to Spotrac.  This is actually a bit more than I thought it was. 

228M is what I read as the Jays' CBT payroll. 

So $13M more to spend right to the first line, $33M to spend right to the second line. 

I don't think the Spotrac numbers are accurate but they might still actually have $21M to spend if they want to end up past the first line but a healthy distance from line #2. If they even care about the CBT payroll lines this year, who knows. 

[saskjayfan]

37 minutes ago, Laika said:

228M is what I read as the Jays' CBT payroll. 

So $13M more to spend right to the first line, $33M to spend right to the second line. 

I don't think the Spotrac numbers are accurate but they might still actually have $21M to spend if they want to end up past the first line but a healthy distance from line #2. If they even care about the CBT payroll lines this year, who knows. 

The first actual luxury tax threshold is 241.  It doesn't matter what you read.  The Jays have the same luxury tax threshold as the rest of the league.  Spotrac numbers are actually pretty reliable and they break things down really well.  Player benefits, minor league salaries and pre arb bonus pool is over 22 mil.  They include pre-arb, arb projections and payroll.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/toronto-blue-jays/overview/_/year/2025

[Jimcanuck]

The threshold is based on end of season payroll.  They can go over and if the bed is shitted on, the firesale will get them back under

[Carlos Danger]

This is correct. All that matters is end of season totals.

 

Time to change your profile pic Jimbo. New Year, new board and new results.

[saskjayfan]

25 minutes ago, Jimcanuck said:

The threshold is based on end of season payroll.  They can go over and if the bed is shitted on, the firesale will get them back under

Yeah, we were over to start the year last year and ended up under.  I was kind of hoping to be over at the beginning of the season and at the end of the year this year....lol

[Laika]

49 minutes ago, Jimcanuck said:

The threshold is based on end of season payroll.  They can go over and if the bed is shitted on, the firesale will get them back under

Teams still position themselves in relation to the thresholds. Toronto may try to be slightly above the first threshold for example then they can go either way in season depending on how s*** goes 

[Jimcanuck]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

Teams still position themselves in relation to the thresholds. Toronto may try to be slightly above the first threshold for example then they can go either way in season depending on how s*** goes 

No need to repeat what I said

[Abomination]

5 hours ago, JaysfaninFL said:

Toronto fans continue to be bewildered by the Jays lack of action as they view the Front Office actions through the lens of an organization trying to build a winning baseball team.  But Rogers' approach belies their true intent, which is simply to run this team as a profitable business venture.  As the second richest team in MLB, the excuses of not being able to entice players to come north of the border rings hollow if they were truly invested in building a World Series contender.  Fans would best be advised to expect a league average team for the foreseeable future that is just another revenue producing asset in massive corporate conglomerate.

As frustrating as it's been, we're 18th in offseason FA spending this year. That means there's 12 teams that have spent less than we have.

But yes, the front office definitely needs to have a fire lit under their asses. It feels like they're going down a list one at a time and losing out on lots of good options in the process.

[WryNGinger]

I think they are more than likely in pursuit of trades like the Gimenez one. Target a good player a small market team can't afford anymore and try to give up as little as they can to do it. The best value seems to be in the glove side of attaining WAR. Same crap they tried last year. 

[wilko]

On 1/1/2025 at 8:14 AM, Ryu In My House said:

Honestly, if they sign Santander and a couple of other relievers for the bullpen, they should stay around .500 - which excites me because I want to see both Bichette and Vladdy traded at the deadline and start rebuilding this lame team and a ~  .500 record is likely good for last place in the AL East which will force their hand and make changes necessary.

Last year's performance should have forced their hand. 

[max silver]

22 hours ago, saskjayfan said:

The first actual luxury tax threshold is 241.  It doesn't matter what you read.  The Jays have the same luxury tax threshold as the rest of the league.  Spotrac numbers are actually pretty reliable and they break things down really well.  Player benefits, minor league salaries and pre arb bonus pool is over 22 mil.  They include pre-arb, arb projections and payroll.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/toronto-blue-jays/overview/_/year/2025

I think you misread what was written. Laika never said that the Blue Jays lower threshold was $241 million, he stated that their CBT payroll at present was sitting around $228 million at present.

[204Jays]

Wouldn't be surprised if a weak dollar has cut down our payroll.

2025 looks less hopeful than 2024 and that's saying something.

[glory]

Diego Cartaya was DFA by the Dodgers. His numbers have tanked the last two seasons but he’s a former top prospect and would probably be the 2nd best catcher in the org if he came here (sadly), so might be worth a shot to see if something clicks with him. A team that has trouble drafting and developing needs to get lucky,