Vlad sets extension talk deadline of opening day of spring training

[Dagagad]

It is absolutely imperative that the front office that trades Vlad and Bo is not this front office.

 

They have shown no talent at picking prospects or being able to develop them.

[max silver]

And I'm saying it's rarely an issue to that particular injury, my surgeon told me the resulting factors are wear and tear in like 90% of his clients, Dr. Michael Ford at Sunnybrook Hospital best surgeon in Canada. I agree that fatties don't age well, I just find it hardly likely that Prince's career ended because of his weight, it's a serious injury dude. David Wright's career ended short because of the same injury, was his because of weight? Nope.

 

Yeah I'd tend to think the thousands upon thousands of swings these guys take year in and year out is a huge determining factor in developing cervical issues.

[saskjayfan]

Yea, I have always thought about Big Papi is these discussions. I would say he is more an outlier. If you are making an investment decision, weight/body type is a huge risk factor. Just the fact of the most likely outcome for a pro hitter.

 

Big Papi's strike out percentage his age 40 season was 13.7%. Vlad's was 13.8% last year. Vlad was 100th percentile in expected batting Average. Bat to ball skills and power with the ability to take walks. You'll find more similarities with Papi the deeper you look.

 

Vlad had 2 ho hum seasons, but his hard contact rate was always there. He was always close. You hear that he may have been dealing with some personal stuff and maybe the hitting philosophies were not quite matched with his talents. He's righted the ship. His bat to ball skills with his power is exceedingly rare. I wouldn't hesitate to give vlad 37 times 14 years. I feel pretty good about getting 10 good years. The last 4 I think he'll still be decent. The market dynamics changed with the Soto signing. We have to deal with that reality. They should do everything they can to sign Vlad.

[Spanky99]

Big Papi's strike out percentage his age 40 season was 13.7%. Vlad's was 13.8% last year. Vlad was 100th percentile in expected batting Average. Bat to ball skills and power with the ability to take walks. You'll find more similarities with Papi the deeper you look.

 

Vlad had 2 ho hum seasons, but his hard contact rate was always there. He was always close. You hear that he may have been dealing with some personal stuff and maybe the hitting philosophies were not quite matched with his talents. He's righted the ship. His bat to ball skills with his power is exceedingly rare. I wouldn't hesitate to give vlad 37 times 14 years. I feel pretty good about getting 10 good years. The last 4 I think he'll still be decent. The market dynamics changed with the Soto signing. We have to deal with that reality. They should do everything they can to sign Vlad.

 

518M... that's really high??? Yikes!

[saskjayfan]

518M... that's really high??? Yikes!

 

More than a third less Soto. I don't think Soto's that much better. 37 AAV vs 51 which turns to 55 after 5 years. I like the Vlad deal personally.

[Spanky99]

More than a third less Soto. I don't think Soto's that much better. 37 AAV vs 51 which turns to 55 after 5 years. I like the Vlad deal personally.

 

Well that's your problem right there. He's overpaid as well.

[saskjayfan]

Well that's your problem right there. He's overpaid as well.

 

Yeah, but Vlad's going to put up a similar season to last year and get overpaid as well..lol. Lock him up now. The market has changed and not for the better for the cheap at heart! Vlad could exceed those numbers I suggested if he puts an OPS north of 1.000 next eyar.

[Spanky99]

Yeah, but Vlad's going to put up a similar season to last year and get overpaid as well..lol. Lock him up now. The market has changed and not for the better for the cheap at heart! Vlad could exceed those numbers I suggested if he puts an OPS north of 1.000 next eyar.

 

Or he has an ordinary 2 Win year and you've now overpaid by a wide margin, it's a very risky game of chicken and there's no easy answer, but they need to figure it out by the time he goes to Arb. Or sell the guy. Idk.

[Brownie19]

I also agree the Jays need to just bite the bullet and keep Vlad. As a fan, I have never liked him, but I think you need to lock up a hitting talent like him (despite all the other ****ty things he does and the potential risks).

 

I'd be fine with anything in the $400-$450M range. This is obviously a lot more than the Jays (and fans) likely wanted to pay, but I do agree with the cautious approach the FO took to date (given all the immaturity and inconsistencies). I think it's time to commit.

[Spanky99]

I also agree the Jays need to just bite the bullet and keep Vlad. As a fan, I have never liked him, but I think you need to lock up a hitting talent like him (despite all the other ****ty things he does and the potential risks).

 

I'd be fine with anything in the $400-$450M range. This is obviously a lot more than the Jays (and fans) likely wanted to pay, but I do agree with the cautious approach the FO took to date (given all the immaturity and inconsistencies). I think it's time to commit.

 

I think 10/400 is max, but with deferrals they can go to 450

[Nexii]

You want to lock Vlad in until he is 41!??? This is a guy who has weight/conditioning issues in his early 20s.

 

Prince Fielder was out of baseball at like 32…

 

Yes by 2034 33m/year won't cripple a team. Payrolls will be around 400m. Jays have had good aging DHs before, Molitor and Winfield. Yea it's a gamble but free agency is always an overpay to begin with

[Sorrow]

With Guerrero if he wants to sign long term and you want to keep the yearly cost down a bit something like 14/495-500 is probably something that might work. My feeling is Guerrero wants more like 600.

[Angrioter]

Chochito Sports (@chochitosports) • Instagram reel

WWW.INSTAGRAM.COM

---

739 likes, 29 comments - chochitosports on December 26, 2024: "Quien fue el Boricua que dijo que le ofrecieron 340 millones a Guerrero JR y ustedes en RD 🇩🇴 le creyeron al embustero 🤦🏻‍♂️🫡 #MuchaMentira #PapaGalloBory".

 

 

Atkins is a joke.

[Laika]

Chochito Sports (@chochitosports) • Instagram reel

WWW.INSTAGRAM.COM

---

739 likes, 29 comments - chochitosports on December 26, 2024: "Quien fue el Boricua que dijo que le ofrecieron 340 millones a Guerrero JR y ustedes en RD 🇩🇴 le creyeron al embustero 🤦🏻‍♂️🫡 #MuchaMentira #PapaGalloBory".

 

 

Atkins is a joke.

 

What it say I don't speak Mexican or have Instagram

[Carlos Danger]

What it say I don't speak Mexican or have Instagram

 

It’s the same interview that was transcribed here earlier in the thread. Gives you some context of how Vladdy answered the questions about any offers from the Jays. The part he gets animated is him talking about the Jays offers/or lack of.

[Spanky99]

This is the most in-depth summary I've seen of the recent Vladdy interview so far. A lot of interesting points:

 

 

What it say I don't speak Mexican or have Instagram

 

...

[The Cats Ass]

I have a feeling Vlad is asking for a contract that matches Soto’s. Could explain why there haven’t been much contract negotiations from the Jays side. If his ask is outrageous, and he’s not willing to budge, there’s nothing really for the Jays to discuss with him.

[Jays24]

I have a feeling Vlad is asking for a contract that matches Soto’s. Could explain why there haven’t been much contract negotiations from the Jays side. If his ask is outrageous, and he’s not willing to budge, there’s nothing really for the Jays to discuss with him.

 

The Jays could have started contract negotiations well before Soto's free agency. The fact they didn't try to keep open communication on trying to lock up their best player says everything about these idiots. Their history of re-signing players also shows how they like to operate, which only works if you maintain a great farm system.

 

It's in Rogers best interest to fire these guys ASAP and let the new person make decisions on the future on this franchise. It will also give an excuse when we try to negotiate with Vlad/Bo and other free agents going forward.

 

Vladdy holds ALL the leverage at this point and you can't fault him for using it now... just like the Jays front office held all the leverage prior to this off-season and didn't try hard enough to get anything done based on Vladdy's words.

[max silver]

The Jays could have started contract negotiations well before Soto's free agency. The fact they didn't try to keep open communication on trying to lock up their best player says everything about these idiots. Their history of re-signing players also shows how they like to operate, which only works if you maintain a great farm system.

 

It's in Rogers best interest to fire these guys ASAP and let the new person make decisions on the future on this franchise. It will also give an excuse when we try to negotiate with Vlad/Bo and other free agents going forward.

 

Vladdy holds ALL the leverage at this point and you can't fault him for using it now... just like the Jays front office held all the leverage prior to this off-season and didn't try hard enough to get anything done based on Vladdy's words.

 

Vlad has held all of the leverage the entire time he's been employed by the Blue Jays. He comes from an extremely wealthy family and has likely lived like a king for his entire existence. He had absolutely zero reasons to ever agree to a team friendly contract or even one that felt fair for both sides. It appears as though it was always going to take a contract that felt like a gross overpayment to get him signed long term as he's been remarkably inconsistent in his career, ranging all the way from barely above replacement level to near MVP level seasons even in a two year span. The only thing that's changed is the amount of money it's going to take to sign him long term based on the changing economics of the sport.

 

Vlad is among the riskiest players in the sport to sign long term as a direct result of the inconsistencies and body type and it's not exaggerating to suggest that signing him long term could easily become one of the worst contracts in the history of the sport. It's not remotely fair to pin all of the blame on the front office for not getting him signed because this is a special situation in which there is plenty of blame to spread around to all parties. The smart thing to do could very well be trading the guy if the two sides can't come to some sort of agreement.

[Jays24]

Vlad has held all of the leverage the entire time he's been employed by the Blue Jays. He comes from an extremely wealthy family and has likely lived like a king for his entire existence. He had absolutely zero reasons to ever agree to a team friendly contract or even one that felt fair for both sides. It appears as though it was always going to take a contract that felt like a gross overpayment to get him signed long term as he's been remarkably inconsistent in his career, ranging all the way from barely above replacement level to near MVP level seasons even in a two year span. The only thing that's changed is the amount of money it's going to take to sign him long term based on the changing economics of the sport.

 

Vlad is among the riskiest players in the sport to sign long term as a direct result of the inconsistencies and body type and it's not exaggerating to suggest that signing him long term could easily become one of the worst contracts in the history of the sport. It's not remotely fair to pin all of the blame on the front office for not getting him signed because this is a special situation in which there is plenty of blame to spread around to all parties. The smart thing to do could very well be trading the guy if the two sides can't come to some sort of agreement.

 

It's hard to say Vlad wouldn't have accept a contract offer before if they never offered him a reasonable one before. Now after the Soto deal and the season he just had, it's obvious the Jays need to meet his price or trade him. It shouldn't even be that hard to determine by now but here we are... we have a front office that won't be allowed to rebuild while keeping their jobs to make this decision. That's the stupidity of ownership and no one else at this point.

[Abomination]

It's hard to say Vlad wouldn't have accept a contract offer before if they never offered him a reasonable one before. Now after the Soto deal and the season he just had, it's obvious the Jays need to meet his price or trade him. It shouldn't even be that hard to determine by now but here we are... we have a front office that won't be allowed to rebuild while keeping their jobs to make this decision. That's the stupidity of ownership and no one else at this point.

 

Ownership is NOT our problem. They want to win and they've given us the payroll necessary to do it. There's a lot of teams in the league that would kill to have our ownership.

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

Ownership has committed to being with the big boys in payroll which is great.

 

I think what jays24 means is ownership is pretty stupid to allow Shatkins to keep running this team.

[Jays24]

Ownership is NOT our problem. They want to win and they've given us the payroll necessary to do it. There's a lot of teams in the league that would kill to have our ownership.

 

Ownership has committed to being with the big boys in payroll which is great.

 

I think what jays24 means is ownership is pretty stupid to allow Shatkins to keep running this team.

 

Exactly... I thought I clearly said allowing Shatkins to be in charge, of what is the most important off-season for our future with Bo/Vlad in their last year, is crazy.

 

Ownership has done exactly what we had hoped for by allowing such a big budget. It's just them keeping Shatkins around that is clearly their fault right now, we'll see how it eventually plays out.

Edited December 26, 2024 by Jays24

[saskjayfan]

Vlad has held all of the leverage the entire time he's been employed by the Blue Jays. He comes from an extremely wealthy family and has likely lived like a king for his entire existence. He had absolutely zero reasons to ever agree to a team friendly contract or even one that felt fair for both sides. It appears as though it was always going to take a contract that felt like a gross overpayment to get him signed long term as he's been remarkably inconsistent in his career, ranging all the way from barely above replacement level to near MVP level seasons even in a two year span. The only thing that's changed is the amount of money it's going to take to sign him long term based on the changing economics of the sport.

 

Vlad is among the riskiest players in the sport to sign long term as a direct result of the inconsistencies and body type and it's not exaggerating to suggest that signing him long term could easily become one of the worst contracts in the history of the sport. It's not remotely fair to pin all of the blame on the front office for not getting him signed because this is a special situation in which there is plenty of blame to spread around to all parties. The smart thing to do could very well be trading the guy if the two sides can't come to some sort of agreement.

 

You either believe in the talent or you don't. Your position is exactly what Atkins is thinking. Vlad is an extremely rare elite hitter. His xwoba in 2023 was 94th percentile. He was unlucky in 23. He had one bad year in the last 4 and 22 still wasn't that bad of a year. He was dealing with some **** in 22 and 23 and the Jays ruined a lot of hitters over that time. He's back on track.

 

I view him as one of the least risky players to sign, not the riskiest, because Vlad is a stud. He's an elite hitter.

[Stangstag]

You either believe in the talent or you don't. Your position is exactly what Atkins is thinking. Vlad is an extremely rare elite hitter. His xwoba in 2023 was 94th percentile. He was unlucky in 23. He had one bad year in the last 4 and 22 still wasn't that bad of a year. He was dealing with some **** in 22 and 23 and the Jays ruined a lot of hitters over that time. He's back on track.

 

I view him as one of the least risky players to sign, not the riskiest, because Vlad is a stud. He's an elite hitter.

 

I flatly disagree. He provides 0 defensive value, is terrible on the bases, and has a really bad body.

 

He’s 25 and already has these issues.

 

He has show he CAN be an elite hitter, but he’s also shown he can disappear for months on end.

 

Vlad is an extremely risky player to sign long-term.

[saskjayfan]

I flatly disagree. He provides 0 defensive value, is terrible on the bases, and has a really bad body.

 

He’s 25 and already has these issues.

 

He has show he CAN be an elite hitter, but he’s also shown he can disappear for months on end.

 

Vlad is an extremely risky player to sign long-term.

 

Vlad's body isn't that bad. He's got league avg sprint speed. Base running and defense are things he actually can improve on. I'd play him at third and honestly I think his best position might be right field, not that I think they'll ever put him in the outfield. Vlad's going to put up .900 to 1.100 OPS seasons over the next 6 years. That's my belief. If you think he's going to languish and have sub .800 OPS seasons, that's your opinion. I just don't share it.

[max silver]

You either believe in the talent or you don't. Your position is exactly what Atkins is thinking. Vlad is an extremely rare elite hitter. His xwoba in 2023 was 94th percentile. He was unlucky in 23. He had one bad year in the last 4 and 22 still wasn't that bad of a year. He was dealing with some **** in 22 and 23 and the Jays ruined a lot of hitters over that time. He's back on track.

 

I view him as one of the least risky players to sign, not the riskiest, because Vlad is a stud. He's an elite hitter.

 

Which hitters did the Blue Jays "ruin" from 2022-2023? That's a pretty dumb narrative that places all of the blame on the organization and none on the players for having bad seasons.

 

Expected statistics are far from ironclad, and simply looking at Vlad's xwOBA and making a grand declaration that he was completely unlucky isn't a very effective analysis. Vlad tended to hit far too many of his barrelled baseballs to the deepest parts of the park and this had a dramatic effect on his overall results. I also recall reading that his batted balls tended to have more topspin that a typical hitter and this had a sizeable effect on how far these traveled. I don't know of any way to look this up however.

 

I completely disagree about Vlad not being a risky sign. He has elite natural levels of offensive talent, but he's been maddeningly inconsistent. He wants to be paid like an elite player/hitter, but more often than not he simply hasn't provided that type of value on the field.

[saskjayfan]

Which hitters did the Blue Jays "ruin" from 2022-2023? That's a pretty dumb narrative that places all of the blame on the organization and none on the players for having bad seasons.

 

Expected statistics are far from ironclad, and simply looking at Vlad's xwOBA and making a grand declaration that he was completely unlucky isn't a very effective analysis. Vlad tended to hit far too many of his barrelled baseballs to the deepest parts of the park and this had a dramatic effect on his overall results. I also recall reading that his batted balls tended to have more topspin that a typical hitter and this had a sizeable effect on how far these traveled. I don't know of any way to look this up however.

 

I completely disagree about Vlad not being a risky sign. He has elite natural levels of offensive talent, but he's been maddeningly inconsistent. He wants to be paid like an elite player/hitter, but more often than not he simply hasn't provided that type of value on the field.

 

This could be Ross's burner account. Vlad hits the ball hard more than 50% of the time. He doesn't strike out. When he's going well and the confidence is there he doesn't press and takes his walks. At the end of this year, we'll be talking about how much cheaper we could have extended Vlad right now and now we lost him to the Sox or the Yankees. We're in a rebuild with not much to start the rebuild if we lose Vlad.

[max silver]

Vlad's body isn't that bad. He's got league avg sprint speed. Base running and defense are things he actually can improve on. I'd play him at third and honestly I think his best position might be right field, not that I think they'll ever put him in the outfield. Vlad's going to put up .900 to 1.100 OPS seasons over the next 6 years. That's my belief. If you think he's going to languish and have sub .800 OPS seasons, that's your opinion. I just don't share it.

 

Vlad's body isn't that bad *right now*. Don't pretend this hasn't been an issue in the past or doesn't have very realistic potential to become an issue again in the future. As a natural heavyset player Vlad needs to bust his ass in the offseason to maintain appropriate conditioning to allow him to perform to his potential and he's shown up in suboptimal condition more than once already.

 

Despite Vlad featuring his highest ever sprint speed on the bases he just posted the worst baserunning metrics of his entire career. His issues stem from between his ears as he's just incapable of making good decisions on the bases. He's already played over 800 games in his career so you can't just assume this is something that's magically going to improve.

 

It's entirely possible that Vlad will post fantastic offensive seasons for the next 6 seasons, but if he's looking at a deal of 12 or more years the back half of that deal has massive landmine potential. A player like Bobby Witt Jr. is a low risk signing as he has elite tools across the board, is capable of providing elite defense at a premium position, posted elite offensive numbers in his 3rd major league season and provides elite production on the bases. That dude has a ridiculously high floor on top of one of MLB's highest overall ceilings. All that Vlad has to offer is elite offensive potential to go with MLB worst baserunning and bad defense at one of the least demanding positions, and he's only produced elite numbers in 2 of his 6 seasons up to this point. It has to be rare for a player to simultaneously feature such a high ceiling and low floor over a full season of play, particularly at such a young age in a player that doesn't tend to miss time due to injury.

[saskjayfan]

Vlad's body isn't that bad *right now*. Don't pretend this hasn't been an issue in the past or doesn't have very realistic potential to become an issue again in the future. As a natural heavyset player Vlad needs to bust his ass in the offseason to maintain appropriate conditioning to allow him to perform to his potential and he's shown up in suboptimal condition more than once already.

 

Despite Vlad featuring his highest ever sprint speed on the bases he just posted the worst baserunning metrics of his entire career. His issues stem from between his ears as he's just incapable of making good decisions on the bases. He's already played over 800 games in his career so you can't just assume this is something that's magically going to improve.

 

It's entirely possible that Vlad will post fantastic offensive seasons for the next 6 seasons, but if he's looking at a deal of 12 or more years the back half of that deal has massive landmine potential. A player like Bobby Witt Jr. is a low risk signing as he has elite tools across the board, is capable of providing elite defense at a premium position, posted elite offensive numbers in his 3rd major league season and provides elite production on the bases. That dude has a ridiculously high floor on top of one of MLB's highest overall ceilings. All that Vlad has to offer is elite offensive potential to go with MLB worst baserunning and bad defense at one of the least demanding positions, and he's only produced elite numbers in 2 of his 6 seasons up to this point. It has to be rare for a player to simultaneously feature such a high ceiling and low floor over a full season of play, particularly at such a young age in a player that doesn't tend to miss time due to injury.

 

Bobby Whitt Jr is signed with the Royals for over a decade with the Royals. I'm not sure what the point of discussing him is. Yeah he's a stud. I think Vlad's had an elite hit profile 3 of the last 4 years and a above average hit profile in the other year. He disclosed he was dealing with personal ****. Honestly, I could care less if he was primarily a DH and didn't play in the field. If I signed him long term, I'd tinker and play him at third and the outfield as well as first to see if there's a better fit or if his D can get better at first.