Predict Vladdy's Extension Contract

[Spanky99]

This thread would’ve been best 3 months ago.

 

There is one ya dingleberry.

[jaysblue]

In that case I would sign both of them if possible. The Yankees have shown this season how it's possible to build a great offense by having two elite hitters, and having two of these guys for their respective primes would set the team up offensively for the long term.

 

Jays have nothing to lose. Sign Soto and extend Vlad, and your middle-of-the-order is set for the next decade.

[jaysblue]

Yeah the proof will be in the numbers

 

The problem with guys like jaysblue is that most of the time they just don't even have an actual opinion.

 

"he will try to get Soto money" isn't really a worthwhile opinion on the matter

 

"he will get close to Soto money if a team is desperate" is too contingent

 

everyone can just say what they think both players will get and one day we will see who is smart and who is not

 

Soto will get something like 13*41

Vlad will get more like 11*31

 

This coming from the guy who flip flops on pretty much everything lol.

[max silver]

Jays have nothing to lose. Sign Soto and extend Vlad, and your middle-of-the-order is set for the next decade.

 

Both of these guys may need to be full time DH only types 4 or 5 years from now but that would be a an issue down the road. The offensive upside would more than make up for it.

[jaysblue]

Both of these guys may need to be full time DH only types 4 or 5 years from now but that would be a an issue down the road. The offensive upside would more than make up for it.

 

Yeah if the money was there to sign Ohtani, go hard after Soto and try to re-sign Vlad. That middle-of-the-order would be one of the best, if not best in baseball. Signing Soto also likely makes it easier to re-sign Vladdy or you can convince Soto that you're going to re-sign Vladdy after as well. Regardless, would love to see it if the money is there!

[hanton]

If this is true why don't they have a contract? Pretty simple. It is just WAR. Take a look at the fangraphs page, calculate the number, sign the contract.

 

Give him the Devers contract. He should sign it. Unless his camp thinks it's not just WAR, or they are betting that Vlad is better than his fWAR, and the market (which by market we mean 2 or 3 teams bidding on him) will think he is better than fWAR.

 

Note: I'm not personally arguing Vlad is better than his fWAR. I might be in the camp that thinks Vlad is as good as his fWAR. It doesn't matter what I think, or what 25 teams in the industry think, it matters what what about 3-5 teams think.

 

this

[Laika]

If this is true why don't they have a contract? Pretty simple. It is just WAR. Take a look at the fangraphs page, calculate the number, sign the contract.

 

Give him the Devers contract. He should sign it. Unless his camp thinks it's not just WAR, or they are betting that Vlad is better than his fWAR, and the market (which by market we mean 2 or 3 teams bidding on him) will think he is better than fWAR.

 

Note: I'm not personally arguing Vlad is better than his fWAR. I might be in the camp that thinks Vlad is as good as his fWAR. It doesn't matter what I think, or what 25 teams in the industry think, it matters what what about 3-5 teams think.

 

Probably two reasons

 

1. Vlad camp thinks he is better than his projected WAR

2. Jays camp has (at times) not wanted to give him a 10+ year deal on his "projected WAR" because of demonstrated volatility*

 

*see, it's not ALL about projected WAR, you also care about risk profile and decay rates and aging and other stuff that is harder to figure out for a specific player than how much WAR he should provide next year. on the other side of this coin you can include possible growth or upside in here too, but that's so hard to model I would guess. Like, Zack Wheeler got 25% better after signing with the Phillies - was there any hint at that being a possibility?

[Olerud363]

Probably two reasons

 

1. Vlad camp thinks he is better than his projected WAR

2. Jays camp has (at times) not wanted to give him a 10+ year deal on his "projected WAR" because of demonstrated volatility*

 

*see, it's not ALL about projected WAR, you also care about risk profile and decay rates and aging and other stuff that is harder to figure out for a specific player than how much WAR he should provide next year. on the other side of this coin you can include possible growth or upside in here too, but that's so hard to model I would guess. Like, Zack Wheeler got 25% better after signing with the Phillies - was there any hint at that being a possibility?

 

The comparison with Devers is good on average, but hard to know how much value teams would put on Vlad's 5 month runs of first ballot hall of famer performance, going back to the minors.

 

Devers was a .280 hitter with 11 homers at 18 and 19. Vlad was a .350 hitter with much more power. Devers was a good prospect, Vlad the greatest hitting prospect ever (80 hit tool). Devers prettiest season (2019) was only a 132 wRC+. His best season 140, while Vlad has two 165s with some insane 10 week stretches inside of those (to be fair maybe Devers also had some insane stretches... don't know for sure).

 

Vlad is unique. How much will they pay for Albert Pujols ceiling which has been in action sometimes? (a good stats guy might refute this narrative and just show Vlad's numbers are just normal variation for 140wRc+ talent, but maybe some high bidding team doesn't have good stats guy).

[Key22]

The comparison with Devers is good on average, but hard to know how much value teams would put on Vlad's 5 month runs of first ballot hall of famer performance, going back to the minors.

 

Devers was a .280 hitter with 11 homers at 18 and 19. Vlad was a .350 hitter with much more power. Devers was a good prospect, Vlad the greatest hitting prospect ever (80 hit tool). Devers prettiest season (2019) was only a 132 wRC+. His best season 140, while Vlad has two 165s with some insane 10 week stretches inside of those (to be fair maybe Devers also had some insane stretches... don't know for sure).

 

Vlad is unique. How much will they pay for Albert Pujols ceiling which has been in action sometimes? (a good stats guy might refute this narrative and just show Vlad's numbers are just normal variation for 140wRc+ talent, but maybe some high bidding team doesn't have good stats guy).

 

I think one of the problems here might be what Barker brought up on the fan590 regarding Soto - how much money do you want to put a bat first player (corners) with few to no other attributes? Soto isn't a good outfielder and has a poor arm. He isn't a runner. Vlad, by the numbers, is an okay defensive first baseman and isn't a runner. The bat is great but I suppose the question I would have is that is one Vladdy or Soto worth nearly two Matt Olsons? For one Vlad the Jays might be able to have a Santander and Pete Alonso. They would not need to go 10 years on either one allowing more flexibility and covering off two positions in the line-up - if one gets hurt you have someone else who can hit - if you put all your money into one guy and that guy goes down - you're stuck - possibly with the next Prince Fielder.

 

The Jays are not the Dodgers or the METS or the Yankees. Those teams can sign a player to a $50m contract for 12 years ($600m) and on day one the guy loses his leg and can never play again and those teams can pay that and then the very next day sign ANOTHER guy to a 12 year $600m contract. Unless the Jays can do that they probably shouldn't be playing in that arena. Ohtani was a marketing dream - Soto isn't.

 

It also doesn't help that the Tigers starting line-up just beat the Astros and combined they make less than the Astros' Hader alone.

 

It makes sense to pay elite money to a 5 tool talent - Maybe a Ken Griffey Junior type.

 

Would it not be better to have TWO guys in the order that offer the bat-first ability of 30-40 homers for the same money?

 

I just think of the Angels with Trout and Ohtani and they did zilch.

[Laika]

I think one of the problems here might be what Barker brought up on the fan590 regarding Soto - how much money do you want to put a bat first player (corners) with few to no other attributes? Soto isn't a good outfielder and has a poor arm. He isn't a runner. Vlad, by the numbers, is an okay defensive first baseman and isn't a runner. The bat is great but I suppose the question I would have is that is one Vladdy or Soto worth nearly two Matt Olsons? For one Vlad the Jays might be able to have a Santander and Pete Alonso. They would not need to go 10 years on either one allowing more flexibility and covering off two positions in the line-up - if one gets hurt you have someone else who can hit - if you put all your money into one guy and that guy goes down - you're stuck - possibly with the next Prince Fielder.

 

The Jays are not the Dodgers or the METS or the Yankees. Those teams can sign a player to a $50m contract for 12 years ($600m) and on day one the guy loses his leg and can never play again and those teams can pay that and then the very next day sign ANOTHER guy to a 12 year $600m contract. Unless the Jays can do that they probably shouldn't be playing in that arena. Ohtani was a marketing dream - Soto isn't.

 

It also doesn't help that the Tigers starting line-up just beat the Astros and combined they make less than the Astros' Hader alone.

 

It makes sense to pay elite money to a 5 tool talent - Maybe a Ken Griffey Junior type.

 

Would it not be better to have TWO guys in the order that offer the bat-first ability of 30-40 homers for the same money?

 

I just think of the Angels with Trout and Ohtani and they did zilch.

 

This is why a Vlad deal only makes sense if the AAV is at least close to his current final arbitration projection.

 

Vlad for $30M or a bit more, fine. The upside is there in any given year so it makes sense to pay for the MVP potential.

 

Vlad for more like $40M, insanity. The going rate for a good hitter on a pillow contract is around $20M, and that's if they are younger and interesting like Hoskins/Bellinger, the older guys are more like $12M or $14M, so like you said in any given year you could just get two of them. Or say, Joc Pederson + Lourdes Gurriel + Jack Flaherty (veteran on a 1 year deal, position player on a shorter term deal, and your favourite prove it SP or RP).

[Olerud363]

They won't get a deal done this off season.

 

Vlad's agent and support team will probably sit down with him and figure out how to maximize his fWAR score. Less boneheaded s*** on the bases, maybe play third more, keep in shape the whole season, don't swing at s*** pitches ...

 

Vlad is better with 190 hits and 100 walks than 200 hits and 70 walks... maybe better with 40 homers and 120 ks, than 30 homers and 90 ks, better just playing it safe on the bases then racking up another negative disaster on the bases...

 

They'll figure it out so the 'Vlad' vs 'Soto' comparison done with recency bias looks better.... part of that will be maturing just a bit and being in his prime year.

[Bone R]

I expect Atkins to f*** it up and not get him signed.

 

I'd expect Shapiro to be involved in Vladdy's contract as well, not just Atkins

[connorp]

this

 

I could name 10 that would offer $300m imo

[hanton]

I could name 10 that would offer $300m imo

 

easily if not more.

[Spanky99]

I could name 10 that would offer $300m imo

 

lol...

[jaysblue]

Some teams as of now that could be in on Vladdy next offseason as a FA or possibly trade for him this offseason:

 

Astros

Dodgers

Yankees

Red Sox

Mets

Padres

Cardinals

Mariners

Angels

Nationals

Tigers

 

Astros need a 1B badly after running with Singleton + crap for most of the season. Vladdy would fit in fantastic with Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker as a dynamic young offensive core for the next decade. As well if the Astros don't bring back Bregman, Vladdy could also get some reps at 3B if needed. The Astros are in win-now mode and also Texas has lower taxes, which could entice Vladdy.

 

Yankees have the money and need a 1B after Rizzo leaves via FA. If they re-sign Soto, they could open up the cheque book for Vladdy next offseason. Would lock up two of the best young bats in the game, to go along with Aaron Judge. That would be one of the scariest middle-of-the-orders in baseball.

 

Dodgers have the money, so can never count them out. Freeman is getting older and is under control only through 2027. As well, the Dodgers do like to move guys around the diamond rather than having some guys set at one position, so Vladdy might be someone they can offer playing time at 3B, since they have a club option on Muncy after 2025, at $10 million, which they likely pick up anyways which is pocket change for them. Dodgers would have to get creative by trading Freeman at some point, since Ohtani occupies the DH spot currently, but if he moves to a corner OF spot, they could make it work with all 3 guys.

 

Would never count out the Red Sox or Mets, since they have money and also are in need of a big bat.

 

Padres have shown a willingness to spend big and they could us another big bat at 1B. Pairing up Vladdy with Tatis and Merrill would be a solid young core.

 

Cardinals, Mariners and Angels are less likely but they have spent money before on big contracts. Mariners need a big bat badly and pairing Vladdy with J-Rod would actually solidly their middle-of-the-order for the next decade. Vladdy Sr played for the Angels, so maybe something is there.

 

As for the Nationals & Tigers, depends on which direction they plan on taking. The Nationals are rumoured to be in on Soto this upcoming offseason, so that shows they are willing to spend money. The Nats are getting better and on the rise, so signing a bat like Vladdy to big money could benefit them. As well, there is always the Expos connection which maybe might play some kind of role, but doubt it. The Tigers, could be positioned to spend big on someone and Vladdy would be the most logical given his age and their timeline.

[saskjayfan]

Probably two reasons

 

1. Vlad camp thinks he is better than his projected WAR

2. Jays camp has (at times) not wanted to give him a 10+ year deal on his "projected WAR" because of demonstrated volatility*

 

*see, it's not ALL about projected WAR, you also care about risk profile and decay rates and aging and other stuff that is harder to figure out for a specific player than how much WAR he should provide next year. on the other side of this coin you can include possible growth or upside in here too, but that's so hard to model I would guess. Like, Zack Wheeler got 25% better after signing with the Phillies - was there any hint at that being a possibility?

 

This is why the Jays won't extend Vlad this offseason. It's ridiculous. A new GM will have the opportunity to sign him in free agency next year after Shatkins is fired. Countdown is on. Was their any clue about Wheeler. Nothing other than superior stuff and talent.

[Ryu In My House]

12/360m

[Spanky99]

There's likely 20 teams minimum that would like to sign Vladito, lol.

[John_Havok]

There's likely 20 teams minimum that would like to sign Vladito, lol.

 

Maybe.

 

Eliminate all the perennial bottom feeders payroll wise ...Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Minnesota, Oakland, Milwaukee, Tampa, Miami, KC. That's 9 eliminated right away. 21 left.

 

I'd say Baltimore is usually in that category but I'll give their new ownership the benefit of the doubt and put them in the maybe pile.

 

Theres also a bit of a difference of wanting a player based on talent alone, 30 teams want Vlad for that, but I don't think 20 want his talent for what he will probably make.

[Terminator]

12/360m

 

I think something like that gets it done if the Jays are willing to offer it. I think they ultimately land on something a little bit lower.

 

But regardless of the exact number, how the hell does he turn an offer like that down?

 

He'd have to be hellbent on going to free agency but that doesn't seem like the case; he's been practically begging for an extension.

[Spanky99]

I could name 10 that would offer $300m imo

 

Maybe.

 

Eliminate all the perennial bottom feeders payroll wise ...Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Minnesota, Oakland, Milwaukee, Tampa, Miami, KC. That's 9 eliminated right away. 21 left.

 

I'd say Baltimore is usually in that category but I'll give their new ownership the benefit of the doubt and put them in the maybe pile.

 

Theres also a bit of a difference of wanting a player based on talent alone, 30 teams want Vlad for that, but I don't think 20 want his talent for what he will probably make.

 

That post was more in jest of Mr. Tips above, like it's some revelation that there would be 10 teams making calls to Vlad's group.

[L54]

That post was more in jest of Mr. Tips above, like it's some revelation that there would be 10 teams making calls to Vlad's group.

 

Well his point is that there would be 10 teams willing to pay him 300M

 

A year ago nobody here would’ve given him $250M

[connorp]

Well his point is that there would be 10 teams willing to pay him 300M

 

A year ago nobody here would’ve given him $250M

 

Even going to $200m lost half the people 3mos ago

[L54]

Even going to $200m lost half the people 3mos ago

 

There was even talk of being a DFA candidate

[connorp]

There was even talk of being a DFA candidate

 

This is a fact. I’ve been one upped and there’s nowhere to go, so you win here.

[Spanky99]

Well his point is that there would be 10 teams willing to pay him 300M

 

A year ago nobody here would’ve given him $250M

 

Thanks tips. I remember people thinking it'd be similar to Olson which was fair.

[Olerud363]

There was even talk of being a DFA candidate

 

In terms of fWAR he was tracking with other players who got DFAd or put on waivers (Beillinger, Alex Rios)

 

The funny thing is a year ago I was arguing that he might get DFAd and now I am arguing he is going to ask for (and possibly get) a ridiculous 500 million dollar contract from some team (if next year is a 'good' Vlad year).

 

May seem inconsistent, but both scenarios result from Vlad being over-rated no matter what his WAR.

 

If Vlad hits .265 25 100 and 1 WAR he is over-rated because of counting stats, exit velocities and because he is so much fun, treated more like 4 WAR player.

If Vlad hits .320 30 100 and 5.5 WAR he is over-rated because of counting stats (200 hits! (almost)), exit velocities and because he is so much fun, treated more like 7 WAR player.

[L54]

Hey Olerud I’m not taking shots at who said what here because a) I wouldn’t have remembered who might have mentioned DFA being a possibility and because it was just part of the discussion

 

I’m just making the point that there has been a wide net cast in terms of Vlad’s worth in dollars, so connorp saying there’s 10 teams who would give him 300M isn’t some universally agreed upon opinion

[Laika]

that's what happens I guess when a guy goes from a 2 WAR player to a 6 WAR player, seemingly overnight

 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a personality disorder

 

2019 - replacement level

2020 - replacement level

2021 - superstar

2022 - slightly above average

2023 - below average

2024 march - replacement level 1B

2024 May onwards - superstar