Jays in 2025

[Stangstag]

Yep and there is a slim probability the Jays are contenders in 2025

 

They will "rebuild" while maintaining enough hope to sell tickets to casuals

 

Don’t act like you even go to the games when the team is good

[Jimcanuck]

Don’t act like you even go to the games when the team is good

 

I'm not in Toronto but I go to at least 1 game every year. Got to see Soto this year

[Brownie19]

Yep and there is a slim probability the Jays are contenders in 2025

 

They will "rebuild" while maintaining enough hope to sell tickets to casuals

 

I agree with this. And to be honest, there's probably a lot of "pro's" to this approach (v. a full teardown where you don't try to win for 3-4 years). Build a winning culture. I think DickPole has spoken to this well in the past. It just aligns with the new reno's too well for them not to take this approach (IMO).

[burlingtonbandit]

I agree with this. And to be honest, there's probably a lot of "pro's" to this approach (v. a full teardown where you don't try to win for 3-4 years). Build a winning culture. I think DickPole has spoken to this well in the past. It just aligns with the new reno's too well for them not to take this approach (IMO).

 

This approach is fine in theory but unless the org. really starts developing young talent its going to be tough to compete for division titles in the AL East without any "stars". If you hold on to Valddy, Bassit, Gauseman etc.. in the hopes of winning 85 games next year I think that's a missed opportunity instead of maximizing their value and adding impact prospects. The path forward to 90+ wins in 2027 is a lot easier that way then losing Vladdy for nothing or trading him at the deadline as a rental.

 

You can still sign some free agents in the offseason to make it look like they are competing so the product on the field isn't a complete trainwreck making it unwatchable for fans. But a half ass "re-tool" makes it harder to be a true contender later down the road IMO.

[Laika]

ZiPS 2025 (from ZiPS 3 year projections)

 

RF - Springer 1.8

1B - Vlad 2.9 (super light if he has actually figured it out)

2B - Horwitz 1.4 (502 PA)

C - Kirk 2.9 (457 PA)

CF - Varsho 2.1

SS - Bo 3.8

LF - Schneider 3.2 (521 PA) a bit high for sure

3B - Barger 1.2 (491 PA)

DH - Orelvis 1.2 (566 PA)

 

UTIL - Clement 1.1 (364 PA)

UTIL - Jimenez 1.1 (403 PA)

UTIL - Loperfido 0.9 (507 PA)

UTIL - Clase 2.1 (598 PA)

 

Gausman - 3.2

Berrios - 2.2

Bassitt - 1.9

Francis - 0.8 (84 IP)

Y Rod - 0.3 (52 IP)

Manoah - 1.3 (116 IP) so cut this in half I guess

Bloss - no projection in 3 year ZiPS but all of the ROS projections say 0.2 WAR in 5 GS so just call it 1 WAR

Macko - 0.9 (93 IP)

 

Romano - 0.4

Green - 0.5

Cabrera - 0.3

Little - 0.1

Swanson - 0.5

 

 

 

So there is a bull case on the 2025 Jays and it goes something like this:

- the position player core is deep and young now. that means that the starting point is solid since they can seemingly piece together league average production at every position even with the current depth chart. yes, that requires a bit of a leap of faith for some of the young players but as you can see the group is at least a solid starting point. they absolutely need two quality hitters, yes, but they could do this at various positions given the flexibility of the roster (LF,3B,1B,DH,2B).

- similarly but for different reasons to rotation is at least solid ground to build upon. yes, an Ace seems necessary but Goose+Berrios+Bassitt should eat a lot of innings and be decent as a trio. and the depth options after them should be able to cobble together competent SP5 innings.

- the pen needs talent but it's a bullpen and that's the easiest place to fix in one offseason. some of the incumbents will regress in the right direction.

[L54]

Are you honestly dumb enough to care about what the projections say before the team is even assembled? That's not exactly mensa level stuff bub.

 

Are you retarded? The flow of conversation was about heading into the 2025 offseason and where the Jays are starting from

 

Of course projections matter to begin free agency because that gives you a barometer of where you’re at. If your projected W/L is 78-84 you have a lot more work in front of you than the 88-74 projected team

 

Which was my entire point. The Jays are nowhere close to a WC spot and will have to pass 5-6 AL teams to even be WC3

[max silver]

Are you retarded? The flow of conversation was about heading into the 2025 offseason and where the Jays are starting from

 

Of course projections matter to begin free agency because that gives you a barometer of where you’re at. If your projected W/L is 78-84 you have a lot more work in front of you than the 88-74 projected team

 

Which was my entire point. The Jays are nowhere close to a WC spot and will have to pass 5-6 AL teams to even be WC3

 

Given how many times you've been repeatedly warned and even banned for using this type of language I am honestly questioning your mental faculties.

[Brownie19]

This approach is fine in theory but unless the org. really starts developing young talent its going to be tough to compete for division titles in the AL East without any "stars". If you hold on to Valddy, Bassit, Gauseman etc.. in the hopes of winning 85 games next year I think that's a missed opportunity instead of maximizing their value and adding impact prospects. The path forward to 90+ wins in 2027 is a lot easier that way then losing Vladdy for nothing or trading him at the deadline as a rental.

 

You can still sign some free agents in the offseason to make it look like they are competing so the product on the field isn't a complete trainwreck making it unwatchable for fans. But a half ass "re-tool" makes it harder to be a true contender later down the road IMO.

 

1. Developing talent is going to be required either way.

2. You can hold all the impending FA's to field a "solid" team next year and then sell them at the deadline. There is risk in this and potential that you don't get as much for them as you could this offseason. Also potential you could get more (the markets at the deadline changes often). Could this approach hinder our path back to winning a division title? It could yes - but I'm not sure how "much" it would to give any opinion as to whether that's a good or bad idea. It might not be as much as you think - and thus it might be something that Ownership is comfortable and the FO is comfortable with as they'd prefer to build a "winning culture" and value that benefit as much, if not more, than the added benefit of tearing the team down more, or faster. There are lots of examples of teams that re-set the franchise without tearing the team down to the bare bones.

3. The Vlad/Bo decisions are separate from the rest of the team IMO. They are very important. Personally, I could see them extend Vlad this offseason and them keeping Bo up to the trade deadline. He'll be motivated as s*** and if he rebounds, should provide more value then, than he will during this offseason (after such a brutal year).

[L54]

Given how many times you've been repeatedly warned and even banned for using this type of language I am honestly questioning your mental faculties.

 

Haven’t been banned for that

 

Mods have never said that is a ban worthy phrase

 

Do you understand why projections matter to start the offseason now?

[Brownie19]

Haven’t been banned for that

 

Mods have never said that is a ban worthy phrase

 

Do you understand why projections matter to start the offseason now?

 

Regardless of whether you're banned or not - we've been through this before. Why can't you just choose to use another word? It's not difficult and would make you look like less of an *******. Are you some word vigilante - out to save all the special words you used as a kid before they became offensive (or society finally grew the balls to tell you they are offensive)? Do you not care that the word retard is hurtful to the handicapped community? Or do you just not give a f*** if calling someone retarded hurts the feelings of some 12 year old handicapped kid who's already got a ton of challenges in his life. Is that the type of guy you are or want to be known as?

 

You have no idea if there are people on this board who are handicapped or who have children or loved ones that are handicapped. It's just so f***ing ignorant man.

[max silver]

Haven’t been banned for that

 

Mods have never said that is a ban worthy phrase

 

Do you understand why projections matter to start the offseason now?

 

So what sort of anti-social behaviour were you actually banned for then?

[L54]

Regardless of whether you're banned or not - we've been through this before. Why can't you just choose to use another word? It's not difficult and would make you look like less of an *******. Are you some word vigilante - out to save all the special words you used as a kid before they became offensive (or society finally grew the balls to tell you they are offensive)? Do you not care that the word retard is hurtful to the handicapped community? Or do you just not give a f*** if calling someone retarded hurts the feelings of some 12 year old handicapped kid who's already got a ton of challenges in his life. Is that the type of guy you are or want to be known as?

 

You have no idea if there are people on this board who are handicapped or who have children or loved ones that are handicapped. It's just so f***ing ignorant man.

 

I tried to get the word banned but to no avail. Can’t beat em join em

[L54]

So what sort of anti-social behaviour were you actually banned for then?

 

Sending unsolicited PM’s to new members

[Brownie19]

I tried to get the word banned but to no avail. Can’t beat em join em

 

Nah man. That's weak. Don't be a snowflake sheep man.

[burlingtonbandit]

1. Developing talent is going to be required either way.

2. You can hold all the impending FA's to field a "solid" team next year and then sell them at the deadline. There is risk in this and potential that you don't get as much for them as you could this offseason. Also potential you could get more (the markets at the deadline changes often). Could this approach hinder our path back to winning a division title? It could yes - but I'm not sure how "much" it would to give any opinion as to whether that's a good or bad idea. It might not be as much as you think - and thus it might be something that Ownership is comfortable and the FO is comfortable with as they'd prefer to build a "winning culture" and value that benefit as much, if not more, than the added benefit of tearing the team down more, or faster. There are lots of examples of teams that re-set the franchise without tearing the team down to the bare bones.

3. The Vlad/Bo decisions are separate from the rest of the team IMO. They are very important. Personally, I could see them extend Vlad this offseason and them keeping Bo up to the trade deadline. He'll be motivated as s*** and if he rebounds, should provide more value then, than he will during this offseason (after such a brutal year).

 

Maybe for pitching you can get more for a rental than a full season but I can't see it for position players. Front offices now are so analytical they will calculate the value based on a full season versus 2 months. Also there is a ton of risk in holding players, don't have to look back far to see how badly they f***ed up with Donaldson.

 

I think you have to make a decision in the offseason about extending or trading both Vladdy and Bo and pick a path. Even if the team wins 87 games and makes the wildcard, losing Bo and Vladdy for nothing would be tough to come back from. Then going into 2026 you're left with a mid-high 70s win team and a ton of holes.

[Laika]

More to my point. Even after the big selloff, just look at the Fangraphs DC rest of season WAR projections.

 

Jays are 20th with 12 WAR but that is only 2 WAR shy of 10th. And 3 WAR shy of the Braves/Orioles who are 6th and 7th.

 

This includes getting literally 0 WAR from their post trade deadline bullpen.

 

The current roster projects as well as some present playoff teams, or playoff hopefuls. Higher ROS WAR projection than the Royals. 1 WAR behind the Red Sox. 1.6 WAR behind the Guardians. 1.3 behind the Mariners. Basically tied with the Rays (who also sold).

 

The foundation of this team is not the dumpster fire BTS wants you to think it is. With some responsible FA acquisitions or trades, and a bounce back from Bo Bichette, the 2025 Toronto Blue Jays could very easily be a wild card contender that once again wins no playoff games. They don't even need to sign any marquee players to do this. Just make a few so-so additions.

[burlingtonbandit]

More to my point. Even after the big selloff, just look at the Fangraphs DC rest of season WAR projections.

 

Jays are 20th with 12 WAR but that is only 2 WAR shy of 10th. And 3 WAR shy of the Braves/Orioles who are 6th and 7th.

 

This includes getting literally 0 WAR from their post trade deadline bullpen.

 

The current roster projects as well as some present playoff teams, or playoff hopefuls. Higher ROS WAR projection than the Royals. 1 WAR behind the Red Sox. 1.6 WAR behind the Guardians. 1.3 behind the Mariners. Basically tied with the Rays (who also sold).

 

The foundation of this team is not the dumpster fire BTS wants you to think it is. With some responsible FA acquisitions or trades, and a bounce back from Bo Bichette, the 2025 Toronto Blue Jays could very easily be a wild card contender that once again wins no playoff games. They don't even need to sign any marquee players to do this. Just make a few so-so additions.

 

And then Bo, Vladdy and Bassit leave as FA and you will have to rebuild anyways. Sure they will have money to spend but without young impact position players its tough to fill that many holes in FA.

[Jimcanuck]

More to my point. Even after the big selloff, just look at the Fangraphs DC rest of season WAR projections.

 

Jays are 20th with 12 WAR but that is only 2 WAR shy of 10th. And 3 WAR shy of the Braves/Orioles who are 6th and 7th.

 

This includes getting literally 0 WAR from their post trade deadline bullpen.

 

The current roster projects as well as some present playoff teams, or playoff hopefuls. Higher ROS WAR projection than the Royals. 1 WAR behind the Red Sox. 1.6 WAR behind the Guardians. 1.3 behind the Mariners. Basically tied with the Rays (who also sold).

 

The foundation of this team is not the dumpster fire BTS wants you to think it is. With some responsible FA acquisitions or trades, and a bounce back from Bo Bichette, the 2025 Toronto Blue Jays could very easily be a wild card contender that once again wins no playoff games. They don't even need to sign any marquee players to do this. Just make a few so-so additions.

 

It's a dumpster fire, sorry. Slim chances in 2025. Red flags everywhere. If jays make the playoffs in 2025, it's a miracle and Ross should be beatified

[Terminator]

More to my point. Even after the big selloff, just look at the Fangraphs DC rest of season WAR projections.

 

Jays are 20th with 12 WAR but that is only 2 WAR shy of 10th. And 3 WAR shy of the Braves/Orioles who are 6th and 7th.

 

This includes getting literally 0 WAR from their post trade deadline bullpen.

 

The current roster projects as well as some present playoff teams, or playoff hopefuls. Higher ROS WAR projection than the Royals. 1 WAR behind the Red Sox. 1.6 WAR behind the Guardians. 1.3 behind the Mariners. Basically tied with the Rays (who also sold).

 

The foundation of this team is not the dumpster fire BTS wants you to think it is. With some responsible FA acquisitions or trades, and a bounce back from Bo Bichette, the 2025 Toronto Blue Jays could very easily be a wild card contender that once again wins no playoff games. They don't even need to sign any marquee players to do this. Just make a few so-so additions.

 

This is true, with a good, doesn't even have to be great, offseason they could contend for a Wild Card. This is true of the majority of teams every year now unless you are one of the scum franchises like the Rockies.

 

I think people are conflating could contend for a wild card with whether or not they should.

[max silver]

It's a dumpster fire, sorry. Slim chances in 2025. Red flags everywhere. If jays make the playoffs in 2025, it's a miracle and Ross should be beatified

 

The 2025 Blue Jays are going to be like a box of chocolates because you don't know what you are going to get. Is Gausman the ace with an effective splitter or is he more of a mid rotation piece? Does Berrios right the ship this season or is he a back of the rotation pitcher? Does Bo bounce back next season or has he turned into Tim Anderson? Are Romano and Swanson going to be effective leverage relievers or are they both cooked? Is Vlad an MVP caliber bat or is he going to revert to career averages? Is Springer the heavily declining player of the first few months of this season or has he unlocked himself at the plate with recent adjustments?

[Jimcanuck]

The 2025 Blue Jays are going to be like a box of chocolates because you don't know what you are going to get. Is Gausman the ace with an effective splitter or is he more of a mid rotation piece? Does Berrios right the ship this season or is he a back of the rotation pitcher? Does Bo bounce back next season or has he turned into Tim Anderson? Are Romano and Swanson going to be effective leverage relievers or are they both cooked? Is Vlad an MVP caliber bat or is he going to revert to career averages? Is Springer the heavily declining player of the first few months of this season or has he unlocked himself at the plate with recent adjustments?

 

Exactly what I meant by red flags everywhere. Too much needs to go right for the Jays to hit the post season. SLIM CHANCE.

[Terminator]

Exactly what I meant by red flags everywhere. Too much needs to go right for the Jays to hit the post season. SLIM CHANCE.

 

Those aren't 50/50 coin flips though. Gausman is probably a 3+ WAR pitcher. Bo is probably a 3 WAR SS. Springer probably puts up 2 WAR. Vlad probably hits wRC 140+.

[BatFlip]

Exactly what I meant by red flags everywhere. Too much needs to go right for the Jays to hit the post season. SLIM CHANCE.

 

 

This is a knee-jerk take.

 

A more wise take would be "they can't make the post season as the team stands". Let's see what the team looks like in the 2025 pre-season before we cement the odds of a wildcard. If the team is genuinely going for it, they could have $55M and a bit of trade depth to improve the team. As Term said above, let's not conflate whether they can make it with whether they should.

[Nexii]

Selling FAs at the deadline as the Jays did this year is a good play. There are more buyers than sellers now thanks to WC2/WC3 slots. And all contenders are buying because you really want that DIV1/DIV2 bye slot

 

At this point in the season there are 8 AL teams in contention, 7 out of contention. NL teams you can say 9 in contention and 6 out of contention (being kind to the Pirates).

[Jimcanuck]

This is a knee-jerk take.

 

A more wise take would be "they can't make the post season as the team stands". Let's see what the team looks like in the 2025 pre-season before we cement the odds of a wildcard. If the team is genuinely going for it, they could have $55M and a bit of trade depth to improve the team. As Term said above, let's not conflate whether they can make it with whether they should.

 

It's reality, bro. When they sign a couple of FA and market the s*** out of them, you can open your wallet.

[BatFlip]

It's reality, bro. When they sign a couple of FA and market the s*** out of them, you can open your wallet.

 

Well, let's see how the team looks and how it projects. I'm not sure if that isn't 'reality' but I think it's a reasonable approach so long as Rogers continues to spend.

 

And if they only sign a couple FA with $55M, hopefully they're impact players...

[Terminator]

Selling FAs at the deadline as the Jays did this year is a good play. There are more buyers than sellers now thanks to WC2/WC3 slots. And all contenders are buying because you really want that DIV1/DIV2 bye slot

 

At this point in the season there are 8 AL teams in contention, 7 out of contention. NL teams you can say 9 in contention and 6 out of contention (being kind to the Pirates).

 

Of the teams not in contention I wonder how many would be if they add 40-60 mil to the payroll this upcoming offseason? That would add several more.

 

This doesn't mean the Jays are any good, it just means that most teams can spend their way into wild card contention in the new playoff format.

[BTS]

ZiPS 2025 (from ZiPS 3 year projections)

 

RF - Springer 1.8

1B - Vlad 2.9 (super light if he has actually figured it out)

2B - Horwitz 1.4 (502 PA)

C - Kirk 2.9 (457 PA)

CF - Varsho 2.1

SS - Bo 3.8

LF - Schneider 3.2 (521 PA) a bit high for sure

3B - Barger 1.2 (491 PA)

DH - Orelvis 1.2 (566 PA)

 

UTIL - Clement 1.1 (364 PA)

UTIL - Jimenez 1.1 (403 PA)

UTIL - Loperfido 0.9 (507 PA)

UTIL - Clase 2.1 (598 PA)

 

Gausman - 3.2

Berrios - 2.2

Bassitt - 1.9

Francis - 0.8 (84 IP)

Y Rod - 0.3 (52 IP)

Manoah - 1.3 (116 IP) so cut this in half I guess

Bloss - no projection in 3 year ZiPS but all of the ROS projections say 0.2 WAR in 5 GS so just call it 1 WAR

Macko - 0.9 (93 IP)

 

Romano - 0.4

Green - 0.5

Cabrera - 0.3

Little - 0.1

Swanson - 0.5

 

 

 

So there is a bull case on the 2025 Jays and it goes something like this:

- the position player core is deep and young now. that means that the starting point is solid since they can seemingly piece together league average production at every position even with the current depth chart. yes, that requires a bit of a leap of faith for some of the young players but as you can see the group is at least a solid starting point. they absolutely need two quality hitters, yes, but they could do this at various positions given the flexibility of the roster (LF,3B,1B,DH,2B).

- similarly but for different reasons to rotation is at least solid ground to build upon. yes, an Ace seems necessary but Goose+Berrios+Bassitt should eat a lot of innings and be decent as a trio. and the depth options after them should be able to cobble together competent SP5 innings.

- the pen needs talent but it's a bullpen and that's the easiest place to fix in one offseason. some of the incumbents will regress in the right direction.

 

BTW, these were pre-season projections. Guys like Berrios, Bichette, Francis, Clase etc...project significantly worse via ZiPS RoS than they did preseason for 2025. Vlad projects better.

[Laika]

BTW, these were pre-season projections. Guys like Berrios, Bichette, Francis, Clase etc...project significantly worse via ZiPS RoS than they did preseason for 2025. Vlad projects better.

 

And Horwitz has more than doubled his ZiPS projection. Varsho is 1 win higher, somehow. Springer's rebound has him somehow higher now.

 

It probably all evens out. More or less.

[BTS]

And Horwitz has more than doubled his ZiPS projection. Varsho is 1 win higher, somehow. Springer's rebound has him somehow higher now.

 

It probably all evens out. More or less.

 

Varsho is interesting. It's like the pre-season model didn't have enough data to take his defensive stats at face value, then he passed certain thresholds this season allowing the RoS model to properly value that part of his game.