Kikuchi to Astros

[Terminator]

They'll strike out on Soto. Then panic because they need to win in 2025. I can see it now:

 

- farm emptied again for Luis Robert

- 4/80 for Christian Walker

- 4/80 for Jurickson Profar

- 6/150 for Blake Snell

 

The team wins 76 games. Atkins and Shapiro don't have their contracts renewed. New regime inherits a losing team with a half dozen underwater contracts and a bottom-5 farm.

 

Don't forget the 10 year, 300 million dollar Vlad extension.

[Omar]

Bloss should be in AAA learning/developing because we need him to throw harder and develop a better third pitch. Otherwise he's just Bowden Francis.

 

Yeah they better not f it up. Houston rushed him up and he got rocked. We're in no hurry, the season is done. Ride it out and give the guy a chance at true development.

[Pendleton]

Bloss should be in AAA learning/developing because we need him to throw harder and develop a better third pitch. Otherwise he's just Bowden Francis.

 

Just turned 23 and only has 48 innings of AA/AAA experience, definitely would rather give him more time and roll out some gas can if needed for now

[Grant77]

I like this deal. None of them are can't miss guys, but we'll have an opportunity to give Bloss and Loperfido some major league reps and see what happens. Maybe the latter can replicate Teoscar Hernandez's success from a similar trade.

Next, I'd like to see KK moved to a contender and Richards moved to make room for a young reliever. We can also entertain offers on Chad Green and IKF if we get something nice.

 

Looks awfully accurate. I'm pleased with the return for IKF and they also got under the tax.

[Laika]

So Kikuchi got a better return than Flaherty? Hahaha

[Jays24]

The whole baseball world is stunned by our trade. Still can't believe they did that for 2 months of Kikuchi lol.

[Spanky99]

Yeah they better not f it up. Houston rushed him up and he got rocked. We're in no hurry, the season is done. Ride it out and give the guy a chance at true development.

 

Yes, the only reason they did was because of injuries, Jays did the right thing and sent him down.

[Spanky99]

So Kikuchi got a better return than Flaherty? Hahaha

 

Click is a ninja...

[hanton]

I think 1 dominant Kikuchi start and the Astros fans will like this deal - may not be good for them long-term but this is a successful organization they will worry about next year, next year.

[hanton]

So Kikuchi got a better return than Flaherty? Hahaha

 

That's a good question that might not be answered for a couple of years

[metafour]

I think 1 dominant Kikuchi start and the Astros fans will like this deal - may not be good for them long-term but this is a successful organization they will worry about next year, next year.

 

The Astros are seriously good at drafting/developing. All 3 of the guys we received were underslot college draftees that weren't selected with top picks (Bloss 3rd round, Loperfido 7th round, Wagner 18th round). Loperfido and Wagner were even College Seniors.

[max silver]

The Astros are seriously good at drafting/developing. All 3 of the guys we received were underslot college draftees that weren't selected with top picks (Bloss 3rd round, Loperfido 7th round, Wagner 18th round). Loperfido and Wagner were even College Seniors.

 

They must be doing something right given the extended run of success but given their nearly worst in MLB farm system even before the Kikuchi trade they can’t be super great at drafting.

[Jaysareus]

Atkins may have saved his job with. These trades

[Stangstag]

I think 1 dominant Kikuchi start and the Astros fans will like this deal - may not be good for them long-term but this is a successful organization they will worry about next year, next year.

 

Yeah their fanbase is wildly underestimating/undervaluing him. His ERA is bloated but the underlying numbers are still very solid for starter on a contending team.

[Spanky99]

The Astros are seriously good at drafting/developing. All 3 of the guys we received were underslot college draftees that weren't selected with top picks (Bloss 3rd round, Loperfido 7th round, Wagner 18th round). Loperfido and Wagner were even College Seniors.

 

lol

[Carlos Danger]

They must be doing something right given the extended run of success but given their nearly worst in MLB farm system even before the Kikuchi trade they can’t be super great at drafting.

 

Do you remember they were forced to forfeit their 1st and 2nd rnd picks in the 2020 and 2021 draft.

 

I think they are doing pretty well considering.

[Carlos Danger]

Atkins may have saved his job with. These trades

 

I hope not. Nothing here is franchise altering.

[Spanky99]

I hope not. Nothing here is franchise altering.

 

That's the dog, man.

[max silver]

Do you remember they were forced to forfeit their 1st and 2nd rnd picks in the 2020 and 2021 draft.

 

I think they are doing pretty well considering.

 

That's a very good point.

[Laika]

Digging into these players more, I think they are nice pieces but probably all guys who will live on the tail end of the 25 man roster.

 

Bloss in MLB has been mostly fastball (44%) and slider (34%). By Stuff+ those pitches are a 99 and 115. That is decent, but neither is an obvious plus pitch or a difference maker pitch. The fastball velo is not plus. Yes he was rushed to the big leagues and could use more development but he's also a physically mature 23 year old. This is an SP5, SP6 type without more development and the ceiling is probably only an SP4 and that is if he can improve (add quality third pitch, bump up the velo, add other fastballs, etc.)

 

Loperfido is a bit old at 25 and his K rate ballooned in AAA starting in 2023, which continued into 2024. The hit tool issues are real. His probable outcome is a platoon LF/RF/1B. He may be able to add some value on the bases and on defense which helps but offensively this might just be a Jake Bauers archetype.

 

Wagner has no power or speed and the defense is below average per scouts. So unless the hit tool is nearly Luis Arraez level, it's not an MLB profile.

[mphenhef]

Digging into these players more, I think they are nice pieces but probably all guys who will live on the tail end of the 25 man roster.

 

Bloss in MLB has been mostly fastball (44%) and slider (34%). By Stuff+ those pitches are a 99 and 115. That is decent, but neither is an obvious plus pitch or a difference maker pitch. The fastball velo is not plus. Yes he was rushed to the big leagues and could use more development but he's also a physically mature 23 year old. This is an SP5, SP6 type without more development and the ceiling is probably only an SP4 and that is if he can improve (add quality third pitch, bump up the velo, add other fastballs, etc.)

 

Loperfido is a bit old at 25 and his K rate ballooned in AAA starting in 2023, which continued into 2024. The hit tool issues are real. His probable outcome is a platoon LF/RF/1B. He may be able to add some value on the bases and on defense which helps but offensively this might just be a Jake Bauers archetype.

 

Wagner has no power or speed and the defense is below average per scouts. So unless the hit tool is nearly Luis Arraez level, it's not an MLB profile.

 

This post is so deflating Tom Brady offered it a job.

[metafour]

They must be doing something right given the extended run of success but given their nearly worst in MLB farm system even before the Kikuchi trade they can’t be super great at drafting.

 

In the last 5 seasons they have had 5 different players finish in the Top 5 in ROY voting in the AL. So every single season they have brought up a new rookie from their farm system who has made an MLB impact.

 

Regardless of their "MLB farm system ranking" (lol) they are churning out young MLB talent year after year. That is the actual purpose of "drafting" by the way (it isn't to rank high on some arbitrary list). As Carlos mentioned, during this period they were also penalized by losing several top picks, so their yearly allocated bonus pools have been among the lowest in the league. Despite this handicap they continue to find players who are shooting through the minors and onto their MLB team (like Bloss). Many of these players aren't giving them many "prospect list points", either because they are moving too quickly, or because they are being undervalued by writers and by the time its known how good they are they are already playing at the MLB level and no longer eligible to pad their prospect rankings. Jeremy Peña for example has been a ~3 WAR shortstop and he never made a single MLB.com Top 100 ranking (I think he may have made one BA list one year in the ~80-100 range).

 

The other obvious "proof" for their drafting and development is the fact that the vast majority of their team is home-grown.

[metafour]

Digging into these players more, I think they are nice pieces but probably all guys who will live on the tail end of the 25 man roster.

 

Bloss in MLB has been mostly fastball (44%) and slider (34%). By Stuff+ those pitches are a 99 and 115. That is decent, but neither is an obvious plus pitch or a difference maker pitch. The fastball velo is not plus. Yes he was rushed to the big leagues and could use more development but he's also a physically mature 23 year old. This is an SP5, SP6 type without more development and the ceiling is probably only an SP4 and that is if he can improve (add quality third pitch, bump up the velo, add other fastballs, etc.)

 

Loperfido is a bit old at 25 and his K rate ballooned in AAA starting in 2023, which continued into 2024. The hit tool issues are real. His probable outcome is a platoon LF/RF/1B. He may be able to add some value on the bases and on defense which helps but offensively this might just be a Jake Bauers archetype.

 

Wagner has no power or speed and the defense is below average per scouts. So unless the hit tool is nearly Luis Arraez level, it's not an MLB profile.

 

Bloss has thrown 10 MLB innings. Zero point trying to pick apart his stuff (which is up since being drafted a year ago) in a sample size that small . Its 6 years of control of a #4-5 starter; potentially #3 if he keeps improving.

 

Loperfido has obvious risk. Could be Derek Fisher, or Teoscar Hernandez. But he can play defense so it's a valuable bench option regardless.

 

Wagner has some elite underlying data. He is basically Spencer Horwitz-lite.

 

You are correct that none of these players are likely to be stars, but it isn't often that you are getting three players who are all a fart away from potentially putting up 1.5-3 WAR in the MLB for a half-season of a non-elite starter.

[Laika]

The trade is fine, the prospects are just overrated because they were the cream of a s***** crop in Houston.

[MikeM3]

Every prospect dealt this deadline was overrated and their owners just decided to give up the charade and throw them overboard. There might have been one legit spec traded all deadline Agustin Ramirez, maybe Klassen

 

But it's still more than I expected to get.

[Brownie19]

Baseball America ranked every prospect (89) moved at the deadline. Bloss was 3rd, Loperfido was 11th I believe. Jay Harry was 89th

[metafour]

The trade is fine, the prospects are just overrated because they were the cream of a s***** crop in Houston.

 

It doesn't work like that, but OK!

[Stangstag]

So Kikuchi got a better return than Flaherty? Hahaha

 

Idk about that, but Trevor Rogers got better returns than both

[Laika]

Idk about that, but Trevor Rogers got better returns than both

 

makes sense even if he is worse, because of the control

 

but not really sure Norby and Stowers are better. Hype is gone from Norby - he now has 99 wRC+ projections and looks like a classic 2B tweener.

 

Maybe it's a 50 FV and 45 FV. Maybe the same as Bloss and Loperfido.

 

Loperfido, Norby, Bloss, Stowers, Liranzo, and Sweeney are all players/prospects that the selling teams probably have decided are below average players.

[metafour]

Idk about that, but Trevor Rogers got better returns than both

 

Connor Norby is just a more hyped version of Davis Schneider. Pedestrian EV data and strikeout concerns with passable at best defense at 2B. Schneider actually hits the ball harder than Norby.

 

Norby is super overrated.