Vladdy/Bo Extension or Trade Discussion

[Spanky99]

I knew he'd get a painfully bad adjustment, but worst of any player? Just curious what the source is?

 

-10 OAA, -13.4 in DEF adjustment, dead last.

[Olerud363]

Guerrero Jr./Cabrera/Manny Ramirez through age 25...

 

Who is best? Closer than you would think and if Guerrero finishes strong it may go Cabrera/Guerrero/Ramirez for baseball reference WAR through age 25 and Cabrera may be ahead 22-20 or something...

 

1. The fangraphs is crashing my desktop, so I am now going to consider it deviant and ignore it. The very bad defense score for Vlad must be ******** and the baseball reference true.

2. If Vlad finishes hot he will be right back on track as generational 80 grade hitter with Ramirez and Cabrera (who brought it to the next level between 26 and 33).

 

Also note he looked horrible his last at bat yesterday and I can also see him looking bad for 2 months again so who knows... but... if he finishes hot back to generation hitter with age 25 comparablies = Ramirez and Cabrera (normalize number for weird offensive levels Vlad plays with).

[Olerud363]

Also kind of funny that Ramirez according to fangraphs managed to put up 3 WAR a year from 2004-2006 playing full time and hitting .300 .400 .600 or so...

 

So for all those who say Vlad can't be a 3 WAR player hitting like he did in 2021... it's been done apparently. So this contract is going to be real fun...

 

Can see the scenario where he hit's like a maniac for the next 14 months, and then demands a 12 year 600 million contract (on account of being a .330 .400 .600 hitter) but is 3.5 WAR according to fangraphs...

[saskjayfan]

1B/DH only players who were comparable hitters to him (or even better hitters in some cases) signed extensions in their mid 20's for nowhere near $300M (eg: Yordan Alvarez, Paul Goldschmidt). Don't you think that those players' agents would tell them to just wait for free agency is they thought that there was $300+ million on the table for them? Agents are paid a percentage of the total contract signed. It makes zero sense to suggest that all of those players signed extensions that ended up losing both the player AND agent millions of dollars.

 

The idea that Vlad is going to get $100+ million more than the established "market value" of a bad defensive 1B/DH because he is 1-2 years younger than normal is a giant leap of an assumption.

 

 

 

If you are going to try to argue, at least do ten seconds of research. This statement is absurdly false:

 

2019: .772 OPS

2020: .791 OPS

2021: 1.002 OPS

2022: .819 OPS

2023: .789 OPS

2024: .930 OPS

 

As you can see, it is nowhere near "yEar aFtEr yeaR". It is TWO (2) seasons of elite hitting. The literal problem here is that he is NOT a "consistently elite hitter".

 

I was referring to Donaldson and Bautista from the post. If you drive the bus looking in the rear view mirror you're going to hit a deer. Harper wasn't consistently elite and he signed his contract and he's been elite. The problem is our GM thinks like you do. You can use this in negotiation, but the Yankees aren't going to hesitate to give Vlad 25 mil for 12 years and you can have fun watching Judge, Soto and Vlad for 5 or 6 years and Soto and Vlad for 10 years. Seriously. You think Vlad is worth 6 years 24 mil. That's beyond ridiculous. The market dynamics have also change dramatically over the last couple years. A new CBA with higher luxury tax levels and new revenue streams. Contract values go up over time. Comparing to contracts from several years ago is non sensical.

[saskjayfan]

Also kind of funny that Ramirez according to fangraphs managed to put up 3 WAR a year from 2004-2006 playing full time and hitting .300 .400 .600 or so...

 

So for all those who say Vlad can't be a 3 WAR player hitting like he did in 2021... it's been done apparently. So this contract is going to be real fun...

 

Can see the scenario where he hit's like a maniac for the next 14 months, and then demands a 12 year 600 million contract (on account of being a .330 .400 .600 hitter) but is 3.5 WAR according to fangraphs...

 

Vlad's 3.3 wins with bad baserunning and bad defensive metrics and will probably be 5+ this year. Baserunning stats can be very volatile. Vlad gets dinged a bit on advances at the plate because when it splits the outfield and it's an advance opportunity because of where it's hit but he hit it 116 off the bat on a line and it really wasn't an advance opportunity. He probably had 6 or 7 advance opportunities where got thrown out. It could easily be two or three next year as it was in 21 and with league avg sprint speed his base running could be closer to 0. If he had that along with a better defensive year he could be a 7 to 8 win player. That's worse case scenario. No shot of getting him in free agency. Or you could just sign him now for 12 and 300 and start experimenting playing him at 3rd and left the rest of the way. League avg sprint speed, well above league avg arm strength. I'd be throwing him in left after I signed him to see how he looks.

[Jimcanuck]

Vlad exhibited his fine baserunning skills during the last BJ postseason game

[Nexii]

I wouldn't count on Vlad getting much better at 1B though. He's been there long enough. Maybe they try him in corner OF since he's an average speed runner.

 

That being said, he's worth another 0.5-1 WAR as a full time DH. That's one kind of weird thing about WAR. If you get stuck in a position that you're not great at, you can end up with a WAR that's much worse than your baseline. IKF was worth more as a 3B than as superutility for example

[saskjayfan]

Vlad exhibited his fine baserunning skills during the last BJ postseason game

 

Let's trade him for 3 prospects this off season!

[Olerud363]

Vlad's 3.3 wins with bad baserunning and bad defensive metrics and will probably be 5+ this year. Baserunning stats can be very volatile. Vlad gets dinged a bit on advances at the plate because when it splits the outfield and it's an advance opportunity because of where it's hit but he hit it 116 off the bat on a line and it really wasn't an advance opportunity. He probably had 6 or 7 advance opportunities where got thrown out. It could easily be two or three next year as it was in 21 and with league avg sprint speed his base running could be closer to 0. If he had that along with a better defensive year he could be a 7 to 8 win player. That's worse case scenario. No shot of getting him in free agency. Or you could just sign him now for 12 and 300 and start experimenting playing him at 3rd and left the rest of the way. League avg sprint speed, well above league avg arm strength. I'd be throwing him in left after I signed him to see how he looks.

 

Don't disagree with any of that, it was just kind of funny looking at how bad a baserunner and outfielder Ramirez was.

 

A lot of people seem to be now thinking that Vlad would not be any worse and may actually be better at another position. Kind of makes sense because of his arm, like he might be able to pull off some difficult plays at third and wouldn't be a total disaster there. Looks that way at least in limited time he has played there...

[saskjayfan]

Don't disagree with any of that, it was just kind of funny looking at how bad a baserunner and outfielder Ramirez was.

 

A lot of people seem to be now thinking that Vlad would not be any worse and may actually be better at another position. Kind of makes sense because of his arm, like he might be able to pull off some difficult plays at third and wouldn't be a total disaster there. Looks that way at least in limited time he has played there...

 

Now's the time to experiment as the season's lost, but if he played reasonable well at third or outfield he just increases his contract value. That's why I'm firmly in the gamble sign him and then experiment, but that's not going to happen. Vlad's 5 foot splits are a tick above league avg. Given his arm, OK speed and his current defense at first I don't know why they aren't having a look at him in the outfield.

[Jaysareus]

Barger needed to try and score on that

[Olerud363]

Now's the time to experiment as the season's lost, but if he played reasonable well at third or outfield he just increases his contract value. That's why I'm firmly in the gamble sign him and then experiment, but that's not going to happen. Vlad's 5 foot splits are a tick above league avg. Given his arm, OK speed and his current defense at first I don't know why they aren't having a look at him in the outfield.

 

According to fangraphs Miguel Cabrera improved from about -15 to -5 in the fangraphs system when moving back over to 3rd for 2012 and 2013 to make room for Prince Fielder.

[Jonn]

I feel his agent would be super onboard with the Jays teaching Vlad LF right now. Would only potentially boost his value.

[max silver]

Now's the time to experiment as the season's lost, but if he played reasonable well at third or outfield he just increases his contract value. That's why I'm firmly in the gamble sign him and then experiment, but that's not going to happen. Vlad's 5 foot splits are a tick above league avg. Given his arm, OK speed and his current defense at first I don't know why they aren't having a look at him in the outfield.

The team has a glut of young infield prospects they need to have a look at including Barger, Loperfido and Berroa at the major league level and guys like Roden and Clase in AAA so there are limited innings available in the outfield.

[Jimcanuck]

Vlad has had knee issues in the past. OF is not a good idea.

[Stangstag]

Vlad has had knee issues in the past. OF is not a good idea.

 

Yeah this is likely the reason they haven't entertained the idea

[saskjayfan]

Vlad has had knee issues in the past. OF is not a good idea.

 

Vlad's missed 10 games total in the last 6 years, none of which were related to injury...lol OF is a good idea.

[Stangstag]

Vlad's missed 10 games total in the last 6 years, none of which were related to injury...lol OF is a good idea.

 

Idk what happened to you the last week or so, but you’ve managed to become one of the dumbest/least informed posters on this forum.

 

Kudos

[Jonn]

Vlad has had knee issues in the past. OF is not a good idea.

 

Don't the Astros continue to trot out Alvarez in LF and he's literally had surgery on both knees lol.

[Spanky99]

Idk what happened to you the last week or so, but you’ve managed to become one of the dumbest/least informed posters on this forum.

 

Kudos

 

Although that post is fabricated a bit, he's not wrong. I don't think Vlad has ever been on the IL, that guy's been a horse.

[Stangstag]

Although that post is fabricated a bit, he's not wrong. I don't think Vlad has ever been on the IL, that guy's been a horse.

 

He’s definitely missed time in spring training and a few games here and there due to leg/knee issues. That’s a known fact. Not difficult to comprehend that it might get worse with age + playing on OF turf

[Spanky99]

Nah man, turf vs grass is insignificant this day in age, Vlad simply hasn't had any significant injuries and if they can add value to the kid at 3rd or COF instead of losing value, I'm all for it. He can play 1st or DH if it doesn't workout, I don't see the harm in that. Meh...

[John_Havok]

Although that post is fabricated a bit, he's not wrong. I don't think Vlad has ever been on the IL, that guy's been a horse.

 

Another notch in his favour for an extension. There's nothing that execs love more than guys who play every day at a high level.

 

Same with Soto.

[Jaysareus]

Vladdy heated up when the team dropped out of the playoff race

[hanton]

Vladdy heated up when the team dropped out of the playoff race

 

how come the rest of the team didn't heat up? he must be special

[CJ-Freeway]

All I gotta say concerning Vlad is: LOCK HIM UP

[AMS528]

I think roughly 14 pages worth of these posts are about Vlad and there's been maybe 1 page of discussion about Bo, which is interesting. He's had a horrible year, but he also has the better history of performance.

 

Despite that there's essentially there's zero hope, and a significantly reduced desire to sign him to an extension. And his year has been so miserable no one even wants to come up with potential trades that might happen in the winter. Tough times.

[Stangstag]

I think roughly 14 pages worth of these posts are about Vlad and there's been maybe 1 page of discussion about Bo, which is interesting. He's had a horrible year, but he also has the better history of performance.

 

Despite that there's essentially there's zero hope, and a significantly reduced desire to sign him to an extension. And his year has been so miserable no one even wants to come up with potential trades that might happen in the winter. Tough times.

 

Right? Last year this thread would have been the opposite. Funny how much people change their opinion after 4 months of new numbers.

[Brownie19]

Recency bias is strong amongst most sports fans. Especially casual ones.

[John_Havok]

I think roughly 14 pages worth of these posts are about Vlad and there's been maybe 1 page of discussion about Bo, which is interesting. He's had a horrible year, but he also has the better history of performance.

 

Despite that there's essentially there's zero hope, and a significantly reduced desire to sign him to an extension. And his year has been so miserable no one even wants to come up with potential trades that might happen in the winter. Tough times.

 

I don't have much to say on Bo, simply because it's very obvious he's going to free agency and there's less than a 0% chance he signs an extension.

 

My rationale:

 

1) history of negotiations with him. he turned down raises in pre-arb years because he thought they weren't high enough and chose to earn league minimum to make a point (Manoah did too after his big year).

2) recent free agent deals signed by mid to late 20's aged shortstops.