GDT - Jays VS Orioles May 14

[glory]

Yeah I wasn't a huge fan of JPR at the time but after looking back, he did have a really tall order in the AL East at the time with both the Yankees and Red Sox dominating and outspending everyone. Revisionist history, he wasn't that bad of a GM. Drafting and player development still was meh though.

 

The Jays never had the payroll they do today and like you said with the wildcard era changing, I'm sure their approach during the offseason and at the deadline would have been different for some of those seasons. Some JPR teams would have made the Postseason IMO.

 

Ricciardi was basically Ross Atkins if Atkins had the 15th-20th highest payroll in the league every year. They pretty much had the same strengths (big league moves, trades when buying rather than selling) and the same weaknesses (drafting, player development, trading for prospects).

 

One thing Atkins did better than JP though was when making trades, Atkins generally did not subtract from the big league roster. During the big 2006 off season, Ricciardi acquired Glaus and Overbay in trades, but traded Hudson (starting 2B), Batista (closer who should have been a SP), and Bush (SP) in those deals. Batista and Bush combined for a 6.7 WAR in 2006 starting for other teams, while Josh Towers and Gustavo Chacin had a combined -0.9 WAR and basically cost the Jays any hope of competing that year. At least Atkins traded from the minor league system when he was getting players like Berrios and Chapman, so it had better odds of working out in his favor.

 

Either way, if I had to choose between one or the other, I'd choose neither.

[Big_Walleye]

Ricciardi was basically Ross Atkins if Atkins had the 15th-20th highest payroll in the league every year. They pretty much had the same strengths (big league moves, trades when buying rather than selling) and the same weaknesses (drafting, player development, trading for prospects).

 

One thing Atkins did better than JP though was when making trades, Atkins generally did not subtract from the big league roster. During the big 2006 off season, Ricciardi acquired Glaus and Overbay in trades, but traded Hudson (starting 2B), Batista (closer who should have been a SP), and Bush (SP) in those deals. Batista and Bush combined for a 6.7 WAR in 2006 starting for other teams, while Josh Towers and Gustavo Chacin had a combined -0.9 WAR and basically cost the Jays any hope of competing that year. At least Atkins traded from the minor league system when he was getting players like Berrios and Chapman, so it had better odds of working out in his favor.

 

Either way, if I had to choose between one or the other, I'd choose neither.

 

I remember some games where the starter and the first reliever out of the pen were named Bush and League.

 

Have a good one.

[jaysblue]

Yes, yes you were a fan of JPR, truth is, nothing has come close to the '83 to '94 era, that's where the cheese is at. You enjoying that Towers jersey I gave you?

 

I still have it and also have an autographed jersey by him as well. Thanks again man! I gotta wear it to my next Jays game or BJMB meetup haha.

[jaysblue]

Ricciardi was basically Ross Atkins if Atkins had the 15th-20th highest payroll in the league every year. They pretty much had the same strengths (big league moves, trades when buying rather than selling) and the same weaknesses (drafting, player development, trading for prospects).

 

One thing Atkins did better than JP though was when making trades, Atkins generally did not subtract from the big league roster. During the big 2006 off season, Ricciardi acquired Glaus and Overbay in trades, but traded Hudson (starting 2B), Batista (closer who should have been a SP), and Bush (SP) in those deals. Batista and Bush combined for a 6.7 WAR in 2006 starting for other teams, while Josh Towers and Gustavo Chacin had a combined -0.9 WAR and basically cost the Jays any hope of competing that year. At least Atkins traded from the minor league system when he was getting players like Berrios and Chapman, so it had better odds of working out in his favor.

 

Either way, if I had to choose between one or the other, I'd choose neither.

 

Yeah he did trade away some pieces that could have helped that Jays team in 2006. Hudson would have been nice to keep, but I suppose having Aaron Hill around made O-Dog expendable. It's too bad Hill couldn't play shortstop and the Jays kept Hudson at 2B. That would have been a sick infield combo. Russ Adams was awful. Bush went onto to have some solid years in Milwaukee (3.8 WAR season in 2006). Really could have used him in the rotation that season. Batista was more of a salary dump I think, but still had a solid season (2.9 WAR in 2006). Jays could have used both those arms in 2006 and maybe they're a 90+ win team. Sucks that both Towers and Chacin literally s*** the bed.

[BigCecil]

ETA; The AL East will always be a tall order. 2015/2016 weren't 85-93 Jays.

 

Thanks mon Cap-i-tan Obvious.

 

I loved the buzz and excitement of that Division chase and win in 2015. Russell Martin HR call in french to beat the Yankees down the stretch. Catching 3 games vs LAA for my 50th in California watching Price on the bump, and balls being smashed all over the f***ing place by Mount Crushmore.

 

That was coupled with playoff series that delivered iconic moments good and bad, after being in the bleak wilderness since start of 1994. It was just f***ing electric. There will never be another Game 5 vs TEX. As you know at that time we had the longest no playoff stretch in MLB of any team.

[Laika]

The Blue Jays are definitely in the discussion for saddest franchise in MLB

 

That may seem over the top but it makes sense when you measure actual accomplishments in the last 30 years. The Jays have almost nothing other than the 2015/2016 runs and some individual accomplishments. Most other franchise in baseball can match that other than perhaps the Pirates and Rockies but even Colorado had a WS appearance lol.

 

Jays probably bottom 5, maybe bottom 7, unless you give them a handicap for being in the AL East lol. Like yeah some of the teams that finished 3rd might have won a different division but losses are still losses.

[Olerud363]

The Blue Jays are definitely in the discussion for saddest franchise in MLB

 

That may seem over the top but it makes sense when you measure actual accomplishments in the last 30 years. The Jays have almost nothing other than the 2015/2016 runs and some individual accomplishments. Most other franchise in baseball can match that other than perhaps the Pirates and Rockies but even Colorado had a WS appearance lol.

 

Jays probably bottom 5, maybe bottom 7, unless you give them a handicap for being in the AL East lol. Like yeah some of the teams that finished 3rd might have won a different division but losses are still losses.

 

Baseball is a game of Joy, a game of generations, the job of the baseball management team is to provide joy and hope to the fans. Playoff wins bring Joy.

 

If you give say 2 points for a division title being = to the 2 wild card playoff wins, here are the total playoff wins in the supposed Vlad/Bo prime (2021-2025) so far. (with the other teams all still having hope to add to their totals, and Bo/Vlad having collapsed to nothing at age 25.5).

 

NY Yankees - 7

Boston - 6

TBR - 3

Baltimore - 2

Toronto - 0

 

Still the Yankees and Boston on top of playoff success in the 2021-2025 Bo/Vlad era.

[Olerud363]

The Blue Jays are definitely in the discussion for saddest franchise in MLB

 

That may seem over the top but it makes sense when you measure actual accomplishments in the last 30 years. The Jays have almost nothing other than the 2015/2016 runs and some individual accomplishments. Most other franchise in baseball can match that other than perhaps the Pirates and Rockies but even Colorado had a WS appearance lol.

 

Jays probably bottom 5, maybe bottom 7, unless you give them a handicap for being in the AL East lol. Like yeah some of the teams that finished 3rd might have won a different division but losses are still losses.

 

Jays also haven't kept and developed franchise players. Colorado has 4 players with higher lifetime WAR than Jays greatest (Fernandez/Bautista/Delgado) depending how you measure it. Jays just have never had the generational player who showed up as a rookie than retired at 40 with opposing teams giving him presents. Pirates had McCutchhen, Colorado had Helton.

 

The Bo/Vlad/Kirk collapse is just so f***ing insane and nut breaking. May be generations until you even see Blue Jay minor numbers at a young age like that again.

[Terminator]

The Blue Jays are definitely in the discussion for saddest franchise in MLB

 

That may seem over the top but it makes sense when you measure actual accomplishments in the last 30 years. The Jays have almost nothing other than the 2015/2016 runs and some individual accomplishments. Most other franchise in baseball can match that other than perhaps the Pirates and Rockies but even Colorado had a WS appearance lol.

 

Jays probably bottom 5, maybe bottom 7, unless you give them a handicap for being in the AL East lol. Like yeah some of the teams that finished 3rd might have won a different division but losses are still losses.

 

It’s a little over the top but there’s def some truth to it. 3rd place finishes make for more watchable seasons but in the long run it doesn’t count for much. Even the Rockies, the biggest joke in North American sports, made it to a WS so it’s not like we’ve had it that much better than them.

 

But I think it shows why this fanbase is always so negative and pessimistic despite having a good team the past 4 years. Nothing good ever happens to us so we expect it to continue. One of these days we will get some good fortune.

[BigCecil]

I often wonder how SEA fans view it? They had the likes of Ichiro, King Felix, Griffey Jr, Edgar Martinez etc.

 

SEA came into the league in 1977 with the Jays, and have never won a World Series. We have 2. TEX Rangers finally broke through in '23 as well.

[Terminator]

I often wonder how SEA fans view it? They had the likes of Ichiro, King Felix, Griffey Jr, Edgar Martinez etc.

 

SEA came into the league in 1977 with the Jays, and have never won a World Series. We have 2. TEX Rangers finally broke through in '23 as well.

 

They kind of know they suck but also not really. At least for them they have had some major stars over the years. Serious HoF talent. The faces of our franchise are mostly Hall of Good players.

[Laika]

I often wonder how SEA fans view it? They had the likes of Ichiro, King Felix, Griffey Jr, Edgar Martinez etc.

 

SEA came into the league in 1977 with the Jays, and have never won a World Series. We have 2. TEX Rangers finally broke through in '23 as well.

 

Seattle is in the same bucket as Toronto. Pretty sad history.

 

They have been okay the last few years, and had that half decade of competitiveness in the late 1990s around Griffey and ARod.

 

Seattle is worse overall since the Jays have 92/93. But since 1994, about the same.

 

They wasted Ichiro and Felix's careers.

[Laika]

It’s a little over the top but there’s def some truth to it. 3rd place finishes make for more watchable seasons but in the long run it doesn’t count for much. Even the Rockies, the biggest joke in North American sports, made it to a WS so it’s not like we’ve had it that much better than them.

 

But I think it shows why this fanbase is always so negative and pessimistic despite having a good team the past 4 years. Nothing good ever happens to us so we expect it to continue. One of these days we will get some good fortune.

 

It's not even over the top, you can look it up.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5325414/2024/03/14/mlb-franchise-rankings-wild-card-era/

 

See, the Wild-Card Era (1995 to present) franchise rankings are not a creation of my fallible mind. They are borne from a tested, trusted, completely objective, never-been-questioned, all-math, no-bias formula borrowed from football writer Bob Sturm and tweaked to fit baseball’s postseason structure.

 

Winning the World Series (WS): 9 points

Losing in the World Series (WSL): 6 points

Losing in the Championship Series (CS): 3 points

Losing in Division Series (DS): 2 points

Losing in Wild Card (WC): 1 point

 

As of last year, the scoring system also incentivizes division titles (+1 point) and penalizes prolonged losing cycles, docking teams (-1 point) each time they lose at least 90 games in consecutive seasons.

 

Tally the point totals for the past 29 seasons, from 1995 to 2023, and the result is the franchise rankings as listed below — along with each team’s point totals from the past decade, and average points per season. Tiebreakers are World Series wins, then World Series losses, then Championship Series appearances, then Division Series appearances, then division titles.

 

Pirates - -4 points

Royals - 7 points

Reds - 9 points

Orioles - 9 points

Jays - 10 points

Rockies - 10 points

Brewers - 14 points

Ms - 14 points

Washington - 14 points

Marlins - 16 points

 

This is the analysis!!!!

 

And anybody would take the Orioles or Brewers right now for their development systems, so the how-do-you-look-today tips way in their favour. And the Royals and Nats have the WS titles which earn a lot of fan satisfaction.

 

So there is a strong argument that Toronto is bottom 5 in the last 30 years. Bottom five org!

[Olerud363]

It's not even over the top, you can look it up.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5325414/2024/03/14/mlb-franchise-rankings-wild-card-era/

 

See, the Wild-Card Era (1995 to present) franchise rankings are not a creation of my fallible mind. They are borne from a tested, trusted, completely objective, never-been-questioned, all-math, no-bias formula borrowed from football writer Bob Sturm and tweaked to fit baseball’s postseason structure.

 

Winning the World Series (WS): 9 points

Losing in the World Series (WSL): 6 points

Losing in the Championship Series (CS): 3 points

Losing in Division Series (DS): 2 points

Losing in Wild Card (WC): 1 point

 

As of last year, the scoring system also incentivizes division titles (+1 point) and penalizes prolonged losing cycles, docking teams (-1 point) each time they lose at least 90 games in consecutive seasons.

 

Tally the point totals for the past 29 seasons, from 1995 to 2023, and the result is the franchise rankings as listed below — along with each team’s point totals from the past decade, and average points per season. Tiebreakers are World Series wins, then World Series losses, then Championship Series appearances, then Division Series appearances, then division titles.

 

Pirates - -4 points

Royals - 7 points

Reds - 9 points

Orioles - 9 points

Jays - 10 points

Rockies - 10 points

Brewers - 14 points

Ms - 14 points

Washington - 14 points

Marlins - 16 points

 

This is the analysis!!!!

 

And anybody would take the Orioles or Brewers right now for their development systems, so the how-do-you-look-today tips way in their favour. And the Royals and Nats have the WS titles which earn a lot of fan satisfaction.

 

So there is a strong argument that Toronto is bottom 5 in the last 30 years. Bottom five org!

 

Royals should have more points right? 1 big hit away from back to back.

 

Add in lack of franchise players, normalize for payroll and market size. Add negative points for the historic Vlad/Bo/Kirk collapse.

 

It is arguable this franchise is the worst in baseball. The illusion of being "OK" is only provided by existing in the 3rd great market after LA and NY. No other market has access to an entire country of fans. Literally this is the 3rd best market.

[goldbug103]

There’s some truth in this. I also can’t remember a player as hyped as Fatty G fail so badly. It makes the franchise look awfully bad. Truth is there is nothing less entertaining to watch than a team that can’t score runs.

[Terminator]

It's not even over the top, you can look it up.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5325414/2024/03/14/mlb-franchise-rankings-wild-card-era/

 

See, the Wild-Card Era (1995 to present) franchise rankings are not a creation of my fallible mind. They are borne from a tested, trusted, completely objective, never-been-questioned, all-math, no-bias formula borrowed from football writer Bob Sturm and tweaked to fit baseball’s postseason structure.

 

Winning the World Series (WS): 9 points

Losing in the World Series (WSL): 6 points

Losing in the Championship Series (CS): 3 points

Losing in Division Series (DS): 2 points

Losing in Wild Card (WC): 1 point

 

As of last year, the scoring system also incentivizes division titles (+1 point) and penalizes prolonged losing cycles, docking teams (-1 point) each time they lose at least 90 games in consecutive seasons.

 

Tally the point totals for the past 29 seasons, from 1995 to 2023, and the result is the franchise rankings as listed below — along with each team’s point totals from the past decade, and average points per season. Tiebreakers are World Series wins, then World Series losses, then Championship Series appearances, then Division Series appearances, then division titles.

 

Pirates - -4 points

Royals - 7 points

Reds - 9 points

Orioles - 9 points

Jays - 10 points

Rockies - 10 points

Brewers - 14 points

Ms - 14 points

Washington - 14 points

Marlins - 16 points

 

This is the analysis!!!!

 

And anybody would take the Orioles or Brewers right now for their development systems, so the how-do-you-look-today tips way in their favour. And the Royals and Nats have the WS titles which earn a lot of fan satisfaction.

 

So there is a strong argument that Toronto is bottom 5 in the last 30 years. Bottom five org!

 

I guess my point on it being a little bit over the top is that it's hard to consider a team with essentially a .500 record over that span as a bottom 5 org. They have us tied with the Rockies but we have averaged 81 wins a year during this span and the Rockies have averaged 75. But because the Rockies made the WS (we are still tied with them for WS wins though!) they are tied with us.

 

But yeah, it hasn't been a great 30 years for us no matter how you slice it.

[G-Snarls]

I guess my point on it being a little bit over the top is that it's hard to consider a team with essentially a .500 record over that span as a bottom 5 org. They have us tied with the Rockies but we have averaged 81 wins a year during this span and the Rockies have averaged 75. But because the Rockies made the WS (we are still tied with them for WS wins though!) they are tied with us.

 

But yeah, it hasn't been a great 30 years for us no matter how you slice it.

 

It has a lot to do with how you weight playoff appearances and World Series wins against never being bad.

 

Like the Yankees right now are constantly a decent team, but haven't won anything recently. Same with the Jays.

 

On the other hand, teams like the Astros, Red Sox and more recently the Orioles have gone through stretches where they were absolutely terrible, but have also had some major postseason success.

 

I lived through the 1992-1993 World Series wins. I can honestly say that it is absolutely worth living through some terrible seasons in order to feel that kind of joy. Others' opinions might vary.

[Eat My Shatkins]

It has a lot to do with how you weight playoff appearances and World Series wins against never being bad.

 

Like the Yankees right now are constantly a decent team, but haven't won anything recently. Same with the Jays.

 

On the other hand, teams like the Astros, Red Sox and more recently the Orioles have gone through stretches where they were absolutely terrible, but have also had some major postseason success.

 

I lived through the 1992-1993 World Series wins. I can honestly say that it is absolutely worth living through some terrible seasons in order to feel that kind of joy. Others' opinions might vary.

 

Ummm, no....no they haven't.

 

They haven't won anything in 41 years.

[Olerud363]

It has a lot to do with how you weight playoff appearances and World Series wins against never being bad.

 

Like the Yankees right now are constantly a decent team, but haven't won anything recently. Same with the Jays.

 

On the other hand, teams like the Astros, Red Sox and more recently the Orioles have gone through stretches where they were absolutely terrible, but have also had some major postseason success.

 

I lived through the 1992-1993 World Series wins. I can honestly say that it is absolutely worth living through some terrible seasons in order to feel that kind of joy. Others' opinions might vary.

 

Since Jays were good in 83 Red Sox have been good in 86, 88, 90, 95, 98, 2002, 2003, 2004-2011, 2013, 2016, 2018, 2021. They are like always giving the fans something to cheer about every 3 years.

 

Orioles have not had any big time playoff success in my lifetime. I predict they will set the single season and 10 year record for wins (121 and 1050) in the next decade and win at least 1 world series, but that has not happened yet.

[Olerud363]

 

I lived through the 1992-1993 World Series wins. I can honestly say that it is absolutely worth living through some terrible seasons in order to feel that kind of joy. Others' opinions might vary.

 

I actually don't advocate tanking for 4 years of time despite that the Chicago Cubs/Houston Astros/Orioles seem to have done it successfully.

 

What I am for, is identifying where you are in the cycle, and not worrying about the 70th win. Don't try to tank for 4 years, but if it happens because you added an extra bad year onto the beginning and end of the cycle, but got good players out of it that is fine.

 

What the Orioles did was absolutely intentional and brilliant. They played the pandemic perfectly. Who the f*** needs 70 wins instead of 50 when there no fans anyway. Who needs 32 wins and a sweep by Tampa Bay in a 60 game fanless season when 20 will get you a nice draft pick.