The Ship is Sinking

[BigCecil]

26% of season complete.

 

To reach 90 wins, which is current projected number required to get a 3rd AL wildcard, the Jays need to play .592 baseball starting today, for the entire remainder of season.

 

To give perspective, 4 teams played better than that for the 2023 season - O's, Rays, LAD, ATL.

 

Optimism at some point meets reality & probabilities.

[Laika]

26% of season complete.

 

To reach 90 wins, which is current projected number required to get a 3rd AL wildcard, the Jays need to play .592 baseball starting today, for the entire remainder of season.

 

To give perspective, 4 teams played better than that for the 2023 season - O's, Rays, LAD, ATL.

 

Optimism at some point meets reality & probabilities.

 

It's over

 

Even if you think the team is not as bad as it has played, they've buried themselves. It doesn't look like it by raw record (few games under .500) but the division is brutal so it's over.

 

Even if they climb back to .500 around the trade deadline it would be foolish to not sell.

 

Just have to hope the BOD decides to either can Shapiro and Atkins, or at least make Shapiro can Atkins, sooner rather than later so the team has a clear direction

[BigCecil]

It's over

 

Even if you think the team is not as bad as it has played, they've buried themselves. It doesn't look like it by raw record (few games under .500) but the division is brutal so it's over.

 

Even if they climb back to .500 around the trade deadline it would be foolish to not sell.

 

Just have to hope the BOD decides to either can Shapiro and Atkins, or at least make Shapiro can Atkins, sooner rather than later so the team has a clear direction

 

Agreed. Our win totals are relative to our competitions, for the playoff spots. They are lucky to have the wins they do have now given their run differential.

 

I would prefer neither are handling this deadline but definitely not Ross. If ownership is stuck on Shapiro thats fine by me. Don't want to die on that hill.

 

At this point the FO and all of us fans have built up so many inherent layers of bias since 2016-17 we can't see straight. We really need fresh, detached, clear heads & eyes making these huge decisions.

[Laika]

Agreed. Our win totals are relative to our competitions, for the playoff spots. They are lucky to have the wins they do have now given their run differential.

 

I would prefer neither are handling this deadline but definitely not Ross. If ownership is stuck on Shapiro thats fine by me. Don't want to die on that hill.

 

At this point the FO and all of us fans have built up so many inherent layers of bias since 2016-17 we can't see straight. We really need fresh, detached, clear heads & eyes making these huge decisions.

 

The issue is that f***ing second wild card spot

 

If you look at it right now, 4.5 games back with 74% of the season to go seems like nothing. And much of the competition is very flawed.

 

Astros - may not have the pitching this year

Tigers - are the tigers

Red Sox - several holes, SP corps overperforming massively for them to even be .500

Texas - a lot rides on Scherzer and Eovaldi coming back and being good. suspect SP otherwise.

Tampa - not scary this year and in the division so easy to make up ground in theory if toronto beats them

Twins - okay team

KCR - better than expected but still have a lot of flimsy players

 

Like, Toronto might be 1 or 2 games back of the second wild card in a few weeks lmao. Ugh.

[Terminator]

It's over

 

Even if you think the team is not as bad as it has played, they've buried themselves. It doesn't look like it by raw record (few games under .500) but the division is brutal so it's over.

 

Even if they climb back to .500 around the trade deadline it would be foolish to not sell.

 

Just have to hope the BOD decides to either can Shapiro and Atkins, or at least make Shapiro can Atkins, sooner rather than later so the team has a clear direction

 

It’s not even close to over. The division may be realistically out of reach but the WC is still very attainable with the 3 WC format.

[Terminator]

26% of season complete.

 

To reach 90 wins, which is current projected number required to get a 3rd AL wildcard, the Jays need to play .592 baseball starting today, for the entire remainder of season.

 

To give perspective, 4 teams played better than that for the 2023 season - O's, Rays, LAD, ATL.

 

Optimism at some point meets reality & probabilities.

 

This is a little bit melodramatic. Fangraphs still gives us a 23 percent chance to make the playoffs. If we had a good 2 week stretch that would jump up dramatically.

[BigCecil]

This is a little bit melodramatic. Fangraphs still gives us a 23 percent chance to make the playoffs. If we had a good 2 week stretch that would jump up dramatically.

 

So you're saying there is chance??? !!!! Of course its possible. Its highly improbable. Its just math. And yes if we have a good 2 week stretch math will change.

 

If you are seeing things in this team that still give you that warm fuzzy feeling about our chances, then more power to you, and I mean that sincerely. Im hitting 3 games in TOR June 3-6 so I hope to f*** they are playing better.

[Terminator]

So you're saying there is chance??? !!!! Of course its possible. Its highly improbable. Its just math. And yes if we have a good 2 week stretch math will change.

 

If you are seeing things in this team that still give you that warm fuzzy feeling about our chances, then more power to you, and I mean that sincerely. Im hitting 3 games in TOR June 3-6 so I hope to f*** they are playing better.

 

It’s not highly improbable is my point. It’s 1 in 4 right now.

 

We are projected to finish about 4 games out of a WC spot right now which means that this team is likely to be playing meaningful games in September. And yet you’re talking about how it’s almost mathematically impossible and using Lloyd Christmas’s one in a million quote.

[BigCecil]

It’s not highly improbable is my point. It’s 1 in 4 right now.

 

We are projected to finish about 4 games out of a WC spot right now which means that this team is likely to be playing meaningful games in September. And yet you’re talking about how it’s almost mathematically impossible and using Lloyd Christmas’s one in a million quote.

 

Speaking of melodramatic ^. Is 23% more highly probable or improbable? Want to make a bet?

Edited May 17, 2024 by BigCecil

[Terminator]

Speaking of melodramatic ^. Is 23% more highly probable or improbable? Want to make a bet?

 

I swear you people can’t read lol. Because Spanky and I and a couple of others are the only guys who don’t think the season is over 4.5 games out on May 16 we come across as some sort of eternal optimists that you guys want to take all your frustrations out on.

 

I never said it was highly probable that they make the WC. What I said is that there’s a good chance this team is playing meaningful games in September. I didn’t say October, I said September. The projections back this up.

[Laika]

It’s not even close to over. The division may be realistically out of reach but the WC is still very attainable with the 3 WC format.

 

The point is that it SHOULD be over.

 

1/4 is a brutal chance at things when you consider certain contextual factors like:

 

- The final wild card spot is a s*** prize anyway, probably just the right to watch John Schneider literally turn into a tomato this year while the team loses 3-2 and 2-1 to the Royals

- It's an old, expensive team

- Many of the underperforming players aren't just getting unlucky; they seem actually broken.

- There is not much on the farm to be excited about

- There is not much on the MLB roster that looks good and is controllable past 2025

- The team has certain players that can only be sold this deadline (Kikuchi for one) or will be worth significantly more if sold this deadline (Bo, for one)

- The organization is rotten in several ways and needs at least a minor purging

 

 

They are going to be in striking distance of the WC at the deadline and I am guessing they will make the terrible decision to just stand pat or even buy. Then all of the big picture, long term issues become even worse.

[BigCecil]

I swear you people can’t read lol. Because Spanky and I and a couple of others are the only guys who don’t think the season is over 4.5 games out on May 16 we come across as some sort of eternal optimists that you guys want to take all your frustrations out on.

 

I never said it was highly probable that they make the WC. What I said is that there’s a good chance this team is playing meaningful games in September. I didn’t say October, I said September. The projections back this up.

 

No, you said "It’s not highly improbable" ^. Because you said and think its not highly improbable they make the playoffs, I'll be benevolent and do you a favor. I'll bet you $500 now they don't make a WC.

[connorp]

lmao... I'm out!!!

 

Out of anything to contribute to the conversation? Been that way 20 years, mate.

[L54]

Who the f*** cares if this current iteration of the Jays sneak into the WC3 to get bent over by whoever again

[glory]

The 2nd and 3rd Wild Card spots are currently occupied by AL Central teams. The Astros (while on a hot streak) have legit question marks due to health, and so do the Rays. In other words, the Jays barring a collapse will probably be close enough to a wild card spot to justify (in their minds) to stand pat, and honestly, based on Atkins’ track record when he sells, I’d almost prefer they stand pat just to avoid the Kikuchi for Trey Sweeney type of trades that Atkins would probably do in that scenario.

[Omar]

Why even argue if we are out of it or have a chance at a wc spot; the point is why would the org pass up this opportunity to sell at the deadline and rebuild? Based on the MLB roster and what's coming up behind ("waves of talent":rolleyes:) the only prudent thing to do is sell. As Laika said, "It should be over."

 

Edit: insert Trading Places gif "sell, sell, sell" here.

[Terminator]

No, you said "It’s not highly improbable" ^. Because you said and think its not highly improbable they make the playoffs, I'll be benevolent and do you a favor. I'll bet you $500 now they don't make a WC.

 

Lol looks like someone needs a lesson in probability. This is third grade stuff so bear with me bud.

 

You said "Its highly improbable" that they make the WC. I disagree.

 

Now simply because I disagree, that doesn't necessarily mean that I think it's "probable" or "likely" that they make the WC. It doesn't even mean I think it's an "even chance." Are you following?

 

I would describe their chances as "unlikely but possible." So better than "highly improbable" (as you said) but less than an "even chance". If you want me to put a number on it I would say 1 out of 4.

 

So with all that said, I reject your fake benevolence and your stupid bet.

 

Instead, I will be waiting for your apology. But given the amount of class you've been showing lately, it's "highly improbable" that I'll get one.

[BigCecil]

Lol looks like someone needs a lesson in probability. This is third grade stuff so bear with me bud.

 

You said "Its highly improbable" that they make the WC. I disagree.

 

Now simply because I disagree, that doesn't necessarily mean that I think it's "probable" or "likely" that they make the WC. It doesn't even mean I think it's an "even chance." Are you following?

 

I would describe their chances as "unlikely but possible." So better than "highly improbable" (as you said) but less than an "even chance". If you want me to put a number on it I would say 1 out of 4.

 

So with all that said, I reject your fake benevolence and your stupid bet.

 

Instead, I will be waiting for your apology. But given the amount of class you've been showing lately, it's "highly improbable" that I'll get one.

 

Blah blah blah....How about you just stop skating and talking ********, and take the bet? lol You won't because you were talking out your ass as usual. Some "Sheriff" you are...

[L54]

It’s just semantics

 

Highly improbable = unlikely to happen

 

A 25% playoff chance could be defined as highly improbable, based on interpretation

 

Even more so when you consider they’re running the third worst Pythagorean win/loss record at 16-26 and run differential of -47

 

Two good weeks could put them in striking distance and two bad weeks could put them in the running for the #1 pick

[keggy]

Why even argue if we are out of it or have a chance at a wc spot; the point is why would the org pass up this opportunity to sell at the deadline and rebuild? Based on the MLB roster and what's coming up behind ("waves of talent":rolleyes:) the only prudent thing to do is sell. As Laika said, "It should be over."

 

Edit: insert Trading Places gif "sell, sell, sell" here.

 

Given the braintrust we have right now the safest directive would be to be a low-risk buyer at the deadline. It's the only thing Atkins does reasonably well. There's no benefit to jumpstarting the rebuild a year early and further alienating our revenue base for Billy McKinney and Anthony Kay.

[BigCecil]

It’s not highly improbable is my point.

 

I'm responding to what he said. I think 23% is highly improbable and I'm prepared to back up my view view a bet. He is dancing all over like a drunk ballerina. If he truly believes 1/4 is not highly improbable, it should be a decent bet for the Sheriff.

 

Couple good weeks of play is all cash for him.

[Terminator]

I'm responding to what he said. I think 23% is highly improbable and I'm prepared to back up my view view a bet. He is dancing all over like a drunk ballerina. If he truly believes 1/4 is not highly improbable, it should be a decent bet for the Sheriff.

 

Couple good weeks of play is all cash for him.

 

L54 is right that this is all highly semantical (and probably a bore to follow so you can have the last word) but I'm the one who pointed to Fangraphs and the 23% chance. Ever since then you've been jumping down my throat saying I overestimate their chances.

 

But if you think it's 23% now too then it looks like I did a good job of convincing you to join my side. Though you'll never admit it because you're a stubborn old bastard lol.

[Omar]

Given the braintrust we have right now the safest directive would be to be a low-risk buyer at the deadline. It's the only thing Atkins does reasonably well. There's no benefit to jumpstarting the rebuild a year early and further alienating our revenue base for Billy McKinney and Anthony Kay.

 

You may be able to get a substantive return for Kikuchi, all things being equal, why pass up that opportunity?

[Olerud363]

I'm responding to what he said. I think 23% is highly improbable and I'm prepared to back up my view view a bet. He is dancing all over like a drunk ballerina. If he truly believes 1/4 is not highly improbable, it should be a decent bet for the Sheriff.

 

Couple good weeks of play is all cash for him.

 

It's funny that he's one of the first to complain when other posters post walls of unreadable vomit (I'll fully admit I'm guilty of that and he has a legit point about that sometimes)

 

Yet now today the Sherriff, usually concise, is himself polluting this fine message board with massive walls of text and obtuse argument, that will take phone users a few minutes to scroll by....

[Terminator]

It's funny that he's one of the first to complain when other posters post walls of unreadable vomit (I'll fully admit I'm guilty of that and he has a legit point about that sometimes)

 

Yet now today the Sherriff, usually concise, is himself polluting this fine message board with massive walls of text and obtuse argument, that will take phone users a few minutes to scroll by....

 

I apologize (because I have class unlike others) but I had to give BC a lesson on probability.

 

It worked because he now agrees with me that the Jays have a 23% chance of making the playoffs.

[BigCecil]

I apologize (because I have class unlike others) but I had to give BC a lesson on probability.

 

It worked because he now agrees with me that the Jays have a 23% chance of making the playoffs.

 

LOL. Had to step away from the obfuscating to listen to Marco Estrada interview on Blue Jays Talk Plus. I was just bored and f***ing around with "Mr. Optimism".

 

PM if you want to make a bet Term. We will give it to our hombre Spanky in USD to hold for us until winner declared. Now remember Spank you can't smoke or drink it lol. What are the probabilities on that outcome?

 

My son starts an 18U tournament in the snow and today in Calgary and I have to go watch 2 games now, if we can get them in. Go Jays!

[glory]

You may be able to get a substantive return for Kikuchi, all things being equal, why pass up that opportunity?

 

It’s a rock and a hard place situation. Trade him for Jacob Waguespack and Chad Spanberger, or qualify him for a comp pick and use it to draft Tucker Toman. There’s no way to win here.

[Omar]

It’s a rock and a hard place situation. Trade him for Jacob Waguespack and Chad Spanberger, or qualify him for a comp pick and use it to draft Tucker Toman. There’s no way to win here.

 

Extend him for another 3 years.

[glory]

Extend him for another 3 years.

 

This might be the only solution that makes sense for this front office.

[keggy]

You may be able to get a substantive return for Kikuchi, all things being equal, why pass up that opportunity?

 

Making the 3rd wildcard and getting bounced in the first round probably provides more value to the franchise than whatever assets Atkins can get for Kikuchi