The Ship is Sinking

[Olerud363]

I think everyone should prepare themselves for YEARS of misery. I mean what at the chances the new GM is even good? Like 50% There's a good chance we hire a boob who makes this worse and suddenly we're the White Sox - who not so long ago were flush with great young players and prospects themselves. There's a good probability we're a last place team until the turn of the decade.

 

Hopefully it self regulates

 

1. If they are a 55 win last place team, after a couple of good drafts international signing phases they bounce back quick. 55 win teams should be able to get players that can arrive in 2 years (whether it be 18 year old superstuds arriving at 20, or good college players).

 

SO could go 71 55 53 65 90

 

2. If they are a 72 win last place team that could go on forever as the 11th pick isn't as much of a sure thing.

 

HERE IT IS

 

1. Win 50 a couple of times

2. Hire 40 nutritionists, 40 sports mechanic experts, 40 psychologists. ANNOUNCE. VLADIMIR GUERRERO JR FAILED. BO BICHETTE FAILED. MANOAH FAILED, KIRK FAILED. Pearson failed. Biggio FAILED!

 

THEY CRashed to nothing at combined age of 25.5. A devastating horrible experience for Toronto sports fans. We are sorry. We are so sorry. Shapiro was a phony. Atkins an obedient puppy dog. WE ARE NEW REGIME AND WE LOVE YOU. WE WILL TRY TO RETURN HAPPINESS TO BLUE JAY LAND IN 2029.

 

HISTORY WILL NOT REPEAT. Everything will be done with new group. Psychology, Nutrition, mechanics, everything will be optimized. They will be monitored closely from 18 to 28 and everything possible will done for these players to have normal development curves as follows

 

18-20 minor leagues

21-23 - early major leagues 88% of capabilities

24-27 - early peak 100% of capabilities

28-30 - late peak 99% of capabilities

31-33 - early decline 95% of capabilities

[connorp]

He's the youngest player in that league. He's struggled a bit, but this is beyond early for any judgement given his age.

 

Not saying whatsoever that he’s a bust. But I think his confidence clearly got destroyed. Two ways to go from here.

[Brownie19]

The title is Sinking, not sunk. We're clearly trending down. No matter how many small trades you win, the 8 years of whiffed 1st rounders will catch up.

 

If you look at our best players with 3 years of control its like Berrios and Schneider?

 

He's right. How sad is it that even some of our better players like Varsho and Jansen have very little trade value because they have no team control left. Berrios is still signed for so long and so much, that I can't imagine getting a big haul for him. We should 100% consider cashing in on Davis Schneider right now before he turns back into a pumpkin. We won't be contending during his time in Toronto anyway. The only reason you keep him is if you're convinced he's an all star and will only gain value with more playing time to prove he isn't a mirage (and that could be the case!)

[wilko]

He's right. How sad is it that even some of our better players like Varsho and Jansen have very little trade value because they have no team control left. Berrios is still signed for so long and so much, that I can't imagine getting a big haul for him. We should 100% consider cashing in on Davis Schneider right now before he turns back into a pumpkin. We won't be contending during his time in Toronto anyway. The only reason you keep him is if you're convinced he's an all star and will only gain value with more playing time to prove he isn't a mirage (and that could be the case!)

 

Varsho has control..

[BTS]

I don't think any of that matters now. I guess it might for Atkins when he interviews for his next job. It's over. This team is dead whether Atkins actually did a good job here or whether he did a s***** job. This team is awful and even if they turn it around somewhat, this season is lost, which means Atkins is probably gone as the GM. The incoming GM will likely have to clean house, selling our impending FA's for whatever he can get. Rogers will likely cut payroll, which won't matter because top players won't really want to play here for the time being. We'll sign a bunch of vets to short terms deals and try and deal them at the deadline for prospects to help accelerate the rebuild. If all goes well, perhaps we'll have a young, up and coming team by 2028/29. Hopefully by then Rogers will bump the payroll back up and we can start to add some meaningful pieces to contend by 2030?

 

And that's all assuming we hire a good GM who keeps us ahead of the curve.

 

You don't need to bottom-out for half a decade to win in this league if you have competent management and a loose purse from ownership. Look at the Brewers and Rays, who haven't tanked in almost 20 years. The Braves don't have an endless budget and they're probably in the middle of a 20+ year run of contention. The idea that you need to spend 5-6 years losing 100 games on a bottom-5 payroll is a lie from poorly-run teams with bad ownership. If Toronto decides to pivot off the current core, there's no reason not to be over 0.500 again by 2027.

[Brownie19]

Varsho has control..

 

FA in 2027 - same as Gausman. If we don't start trading until after this year, it will be 2 years of control left. That's better than 1 year, but it's still not going to land you a huge haul like someone with 3-4 years of control.

[Brownie19]

You don't need to bottom-out for half a decade to win in this league if you have competent management and a loose purse from ownership. Look at the Brewers and Rays, who haven't tanked in almost 20 years. The Braves don't have an endless budget and they're probably in the middle of a 20+ year run of contention. The idea that you need to spend 5-6 years losing 100 games on a bottom-5 payroll is a lie from poorly-run teams with bad ownership. If Toronto decides to pivot off the current core, there's no reason not to be over 0.500 again by 2027.

 

I'm thinking the Brewers from 2013-2016, but they're in a much easier division, so our dark period will be a little longer...or maybe we are the 2009-2013 Mets, or the 2014-2017 Braves? Something like that.

[BTS]

I'm thinking the Brewers from 2013-2016, but they're in a much easier division, so our dark period will be a little longer...or maybe we are the 2009-2013 Mets.

 

Brewers were mediocre to bad from 2013 to 2016. Their top picks from 2014 -2017 were Kodi Medeiros, Trent Clark, Corey Ray, and Keston Hiura. When they won 86 games in 2017 their best players were Jimmy Nelson, Chase Anderson, Travis Shaw, Domingo Santana, and Eric Thames. Later on, none of the their Burnes (111th in the draft), Peralta, Woodruff (326th) rotation that anchored the team were high picks. They've been successful because they make sound decisions at the MLB level and identify/develop pre-MLB talent well. Not because of the assets they collected over a lengthy rebuild.

 

All that to say, sustained success in Toronto isn't going to depend on making a bunch of top 5 picks over a 4-5 year period, or collecting a bunch of blue chip prospects. It's going to come from making consistently good decisions at the MLB level (Toronto does this) and doing a great job identifying and developing young talent (Toronto doesn't do this).

 

I have no idea what has to happen for Toronto to get better at developing talent. I have no idea if that's best accomplished via hires from the current President/GM or if someone has to come in from outside the org and change things wholesale from one of those big chairs.

[Brownie19]

Brewers were mediocre to bad from 2013 to 2016. Their top picks from 2014 -2017 were Kodi Medeiros, Trent Clark, Corey Ray, and Keston Hiura. When they won 86 games in 2017 their best players were Jimmy Nelson, Chase Anderson, Travis Shaw, Domingo Santana, and Eric Thames. Later on, none of the their Burnes (111th in the draft), Peralta, Woodruff (326th) rotation that anchored the team were high picks. They've been successful because they make sound decisions at the MLB level and identify/develop pre-MLB talent well. Not because of the assets they collected over a lengthy rebuild.

 

All that to say, sustained success in Toronto isn't going to depend on making a bunch of top 5 picks over a 4-5 year period, or collecting a bunch of blue chip prospects. It's going to come from making consistently good decisions at the MLB level (Toronto does this) and doing a great job identifying and developing young talent (Toronto doesn't do this).

 

I have no idea what has to happen for Toronto to get better at developing talent. I have no idea if that's best accomplished via hires from the current President/GM or if someone has to come in from outside the org and change things wholesale from one of those big chairs.

 

I don't know either, but it's doubtful we see the results of any change for a few years - it could take 3-4 years to implement change throughout the organization. Also, I wasn't suggesting we're going to (or need to) be a bottom 5 team or a perennial 100 game loser. I just think it's going to take some time to transition to a new FO and to rebuild the farm system before we can work our way back up the standings in the AL East. I think it's going to take several years for this to happen, given the strength in the division and the state of our farm system. I think we're going to linger around, winning 70-80 games for the foreseeable future. Fans will generally support the new approach and we'll preach patience, but then after 3-4 years, if we're not starting to contend, the complaints will start again. You may even get some people lamenting about how they miss the old Shatkins days - just like they do the Beeston/AA days.

[keggy]

I don't have a strong opinion of Atkins either way. He's probably a mid-tier GM, and if the season continues to go up in flames he should be replaced. But if you read this forum, you'd think that the league is run by by 28 elite teams of super-geniuses who stack their teams by consistently robbing Ross Atkins and whoever runs the Rockies. Then you'd see that the team has averaged 91 wins a year for the last three years and be a bit confused about how the worst organization baseball pulled that off.

 

In reality Toronto has lost, what, like 2 trades in Atkins' tenure?

 

If you have 10 years of data you don't parse individual moves. You incorporate at MLB performance, farm system talent, and payroll and make a clear-eyed evaluation of current leadership.

[glory]

I don't have a strong opinion of Atkins either way. He's probably a mid-tier GM, and if the season continues to go up in flames he should be replaced. But if you read this forum, you'd think that the league is run by by 28 elite teams of super-geniuses who stack their teams by consistently robbing Ross Atkins and whoever runs the Rockies. Then you'd see that the team has averaged 91 wins a year for the last three years and be a bit confused about how the worst organization baseball pulled that off.

 

In reality Toronto has lost, what, like 2 trades in Atkins' tenure?

 

No doubt Atkins built a nice three year regular season run (2021-23), but he did it on the backs of expensive free agents and/or short term veterans. He deserves credit for doing well in that regard, but it's about the exact opposite way for an org to build a sustainable contender. You simply cannot be good over a long period of time with bad drafting and player development. The FA well will eventually run dry. They are already a CBT paying team for the 2nd year in a row and it's going to be the 2 worst seasons of the last 4. Their ability to throw money at issues is over, and has exposed all their weaknesses from an organizational level.

 

As mentioned, the team essentially has no controllable players. Davis Schneider is the only one on pre-arb deal that looks like he might be a 2-3 WAR regular, and the Jays don't even view him as an everyday player based on his usage so far. Practically everyone else on the team is locked up only from 2024-26. AA intentionally built a 1-2 year window when he had one foot out the door and didn't give a s*** anymore, and that window was still almost as long as the one Atkins built (and way more successful). Atkins isn't bad, but it's going to be hard to look back on this run with any sort of fondness, even though from a regular season record standpoint it was the best 3 year run by any Jays GM other than Gillick.

[Ray]

We have a worse bullpen than the Rockies?

 

[Eat My Shatkins]

We have a worse bullpen than the Rockies?

 

 

Decimated by injuries so far

 

Romano, Swanson, Green all spent time on the IL, Yimi is currently unavailable and might end up there.

 

Plus Mayza probably should have spent time there, FB velo down like 34 MPH this year.

 

That's all 5 high leverage guys and the best guys from last season

[BigCecil]

This is not at all something I would staple to my CV

 

Fair. Filling in a roster competently with short term deals of value is a skill and he has had some success - Semien, Ray, Belt, KK (23), JT etc. so far.

 

Do I want to have a predominantly FA rotation? No, but in the absence of successful arms development (which is a legit criticism) Gausman, Berrios and Kooch on a cost/WAR basis are or should be good value all said and done on their current deals. '22 was ugly for Berrios and Kooch but they have rebounded. Gausman is already pretty much into house money. Jury is still out on the Hound as he only begun year 2 of 3, and he hasn't been great.

 

I criticize Atkins, but I also try to give him props where due. Most of these deals look better now given the cost of pitching on the market increasing since the deals were signed. No FO bats .1000 in this game with the risks.

[Laika]

Decimated by injuries so far

 

Romano, Swanson, Green all spent time on the IL, Yimi is currently unavailable and might end up there.

 

Plus Mayza probably should have spent time there, FB velo down like 34 MPH this year.

 

That's all 5 high leverage guys and the best guys from last season

 

f***ing insane what has happened to the bullpen

 

regression and decline exist but the Jays pen went from very good to dogshit, in one offseason

 

wtf man

[Brownie19]

No doubt Atkins built a nice three year regular season run (2021-23), but he did it on the backs of expensive free agents and/or short term veterans. He deserves credit for doing well in that regard, but it's about the exact opposite way for an org to build a sustainable contender. You simply cannot be good over a long period of time with bad drafting and player development. The FA well will eventually run dry. They are already a CBT paying team for the 2nd year in a row and it's going to be the 2 worst seasons of the last 4. Their ability to throw money at issues is over, and has exposed all their weaknesses from an organizational level.

 

As mentioned, the team essentially has no controllable players. Davis Schneider is the only one on pre-arb deal that looks like he might be a 2-3 WAR regular, and the Jays don't even view him as an everyday player based on his usage so far. Practically everyone else on the team is locked up only from 2024-26. AA intentionally built a 1-2 year window when he had one foot out the door and didn't give a s*** anymore, and that window was still almost as long as the one Atkins built (and way more successful). Atkins isn't bad, but it's going to be hard to look back on this run with any sort of fondness, even though from a regular season record standpoint it was the best 3 year run by any Jays GM other than Gillick.

 

Why do we keep saying this? He's started 7 of the last 8 games.

 

You're also excluding 2020. Add an astricts if it makes you feel bad, but we surprised that year and made the playoffs before we were expected to. AA's window wasn't nearly as long as Atkins, but it might have been larger. To be fair, Atkins window would have been just as large if Vlad, Kirk and Manoah didn't abnormally s*** the bed.

[Brownie19]

Fair. Filling in a roster competently with short term deals of value is a skill and he has had some success - Semien, Ray, Belt, KK (23), JT etc. so far.

 

Do I want to have a predominantly FA rotation? No, but in the absence of successful arms development (which is a legit criticism) Gausman, Berrios and Kooch on a cost/WAR basis are or should be good value all said and done on their current deals. '22 was ugly for Berrios and Kooch but they have rebounded. Gausman is already pretty much into house money. Jury is still out on the Hound as he only begun year 2 of 3, and he hasn't been great.

 

I criticize Atkins, but I also try to give him props where due. Most of these deals look better now given the cost of pitching on the market increasing since the deals were signed. No FO bats .1000 in this game with the risks.

 

I think I prefer to build a rotation via free agency over the gong show that is developing young starting pitchers. I still love the Cubs approach of drafting position players, who bust at much lower rates and then buy/trade for your rotation for proven pieces that are more reliable. There are obviously challenges with that approach (depth is the immediate one), but in general, I like that premise.

[L54]

f***ing insane what has happened to the bullpen

 

regression and decline exist but the Jays pen went from very good to dogshit, in one offseason

 

wtf man

 

What do we always say around these parts? Bullpens are volatile. So just as often as you turn chicken s*** into chicken salad the pendulum swings the other way

[L54]

I don't know either, but it's doubtful we see the results of any change for a few years - it could take 3-4 years to implement change throughout the organization. Also, I wasn't suggesting we're going to (or need to) be a bottom 5 team or a perennial 100 game loser. I just think it's going to take some time to transition to a new FO and to rebuild the farm system before we can work our way back up the standings in the AL East. I think it's going to take several years for this to happen, given the strength in the division and the state of our farm system. I think we're going to linger around, winning 70-80 games for the foreseeable future. Fans will generally support the new approach and we'll preach patience, but then after 3-4 years, if we're not starting to contend, the complaints will start again. You may even get some people lamenting about how they miss the old Shatkins days - just like they do the Beeston/AA days.

 

Man all you have to do is hit on a couple draft picks and develop a stud or two and the trajectory changes instantly

 

I know it seems far fetched because this front office hasn’t done it but it honestly shouldn’t be that hard to do

[BigCecil]

What do we always say around these parts? Bullpens are volatile. So just as often as you turn chicken s*** into chicken salad the pendulum swings the other way

 

Yep. Chicken s*** or TV dinners. They are volatile. Never liked giving Green $11M on that option coming off TJ for that reason. Thought there were better bets we could make for that $.

[L54]

I think everyone should prepare themselves for YEARS of misery. I mean what at the chances the new GM is even good? Like 50% There's a good chance we hire a boob who makes this worse and suddenly we're the White Sox - who not so long ago were flush with great young players and prospects themselves. There's a good probability we're a last place team until the turn of the decade.

 

My brother in Christ there are only a handful of people in the world who could make this team worse than it is right now

[L54]

Yep. Chicken s*** or TV dinners. They are volatile. Never liked giving Green $11M on that option coming off TJ for that reason. Thought there were better bets we could make for that $.

 

I was for the option and in hindsight that looks like a bad idea

[L54]

I said Theo Epstein and Kyle Boddy were a better offseason than the Jays had and it looks like it’s true

[Olerud363]

It's clear that Atkins was able to surround the core with a pretty damn strong team, now the question is how much blame should be put on Atkins for not identifying a rotten core, or is there something he's done/doing that is the cause of the core rotting?

 

That is exactly it.

Vlad/Bo/Kirk/Manoah/Pearson it's something like

 

2021 - 17 WAR age=22.8 or something

2022 - 15 WAR age= 23.8

2023 - 4 WAR age=24.8

2024 - 0 WAR age = 25.8

 

You took a young group of players that were under 23 on average and 17 WAR and they turned to nothing... not sure if any team could survive this.

 

Like how is this even reality? Not just a losing season but destroying a generation of players somehow.

 

And all the while claiming you have started a 'high performance program' or some s***. Unbelievable. A baseball fiasco.

 

Commisioner should intervene and suspend the franchise. Distribute players to the functioning teams and hope they can get fixed.

[Terminator]

I was for the option and in hindsight that looks like a bad idea

 

So you changed your opinion on a multi-year deal after 6 innings? Yikes

[Brownie19]

My brother in Christ there are only a handful of people in the world who could make this team worse than it is right now

 

This isn't true. You know that.

[Brownie19]

Man all you have to do is hit on a couple draft picks and develop a stud or two and the trajectory changes instantly

 

I know it seems far fetched because this front office hasn’t done it but it honestly shouldn’t be that hard to do

 

I don't think this is true either. Most draft picks take 2-4 years to even get to the majors. Outside of your true generational talents, most struggle upon arrive and take another year or two until they start to thrive. Even if our 2024 draft is great, it's doubtful they have much impact until 2027-2029ish....and of course that's assuming you hit on several draft picks....oh and that they don't turn into pumpkins like all our young players have.

 

Them poor Tigers thought they had the future in Tork and Mize. Draft picks fail all the time.

[RobinThicc]

All comes down to the fact that they are so bad at drafting/developing. That whole part of the org needs to be blown up and rebuilt. Completely handcuffs Atkins.

[connorp]

Nimmala has an 84 wRC+

 

A few hot weeks and he will be fine. Striking out too much. It's promising that he has a couple homers and a good walk rate.

 

Far from beginning to be worried about his numbers.

 

Wrong thread for your optimism. Punch those first year Low A ball stats into your nerd computer and tell it to make some projections and it won’t look good. I had him in a dynasty and dropped him to add some players in this coming draft

[L54]

So you changed your opinion on a multi-year deal after 6 innings? Yikes

 

Okay