The Ship is Sinking

[Eat My Shatkins]

I don't give a flying eff if they fire everybody, including Atkins, and replace them. I just want a winning Jays team.

 

But...Atkins is the guy that built a team deep enough to still win around 90 games despite 4/5 of their very good young core completely s***ing the bed last season.

 

He's also the guy that was patient enough NOT to sign any of these young core members to long term, lucrative and what would now be crippling extensions when they looked like they'd be stars for years to come.

 

Just sayin.

[Laika]

Nimmala has an 84 wRC+

 

A few hot weeks and he will be fine. Striking out too much. It's promising that he has a couple homers and a good walk rate.

 

Far from beginning to be worried about his numbers.

[Brownie19]

This is 100% what will happen. Remember in the deadline of 2017, that was AA’s core. If Shatkins didn’t sell AA’s core at the right time, instead opting to hold them too long and get nothing back for the sake of selling tickets, then I can’t imagine they will trade their own core with any more urgency. Also, Rogers probably doesn't want a tank/rebuild in any scenario, but right after stadium renovations is a pipe dream. On top of all of that, Shapiro will have a year left on his deal after this season. If he’s going to play that out, which I’m positive he will, then he has absolutely no incentive to gut the team for the long term health of the org. He has a much greater incentive to try to win in 2025.

 

I think at absolute most we will see the impending FAs traded. Beyond that, anyone expecting a major tear down is in for disappointment. If anything, Vlad and Bo struggling this badly makes it less likely for the team to get the assets back that would make it worth moving them, so it may not even be the best time.

 

I believe Rogers was involved in the decision to try and patch up the ship in 2017. They wanted fans in the seats after 2015/16 (can't blame them to be honest). I hope this board is prepared for years and years of terrible baseball. Attendance and payroll is going to plummet. I just hope my 8 year old experienced enough winning to sustain his love for the Blue Jays (and I think it will). I'd like to thank Shatkins for giving him playoffs in 3 or 4 season (and a super exciting 2021 in the other non-playoff season). Winning in the playoffs is a crapshoot (look at the 84 win Dbacks last year) - it really sucks that Vlad, Kirk, Manoah and Pearson all s*** the bed (this is honestly like a 5th percentile outcome). We had a real chance to be legit winners here, but that time as now passed. Bring on the misery.

[Omar]

I think it's fairly safe to say that they will reshuffle the organization in the off-season. As we all know, John Schneider may be the lame duck out there and get canned before the All-Star break; If not sooner, depending on if this team crashes and burns like they're doing right now. What I think will be the more important question going forward is who will Shapiro choose to replace Ross Atkins?There is a distinct possibility that the replacement could be a great deal worse than what Atkins was. I know a lot of posters on this board think that Atkins did a terrible job, but being a perennial playoff contender is not terrible in my books. Especially with gross underachievers like Guerrero and Bichette (currently).

[BigCecil]

This is 100% what will happen. Remember in the deadline of 2017, that was AA’s core. If Shatkins didn’t sell AA’s core at the right time, instead opting to hold them too long and get nothing back for the sake of selling tickets, then I can’t imagine they will trade their own core with any more urgency. Also, Rogers probably doesn't want a tank/rebuild in any scenario, but right after stadium renovations is a pipe dream. On top of all of that, Shapiro will have a year left on his deal after this season. If he’s going to play that out, which I’m positive he will, then he has absolutely no incentive to gut the team for the long term health of the org. He has a much greater incentive to try to win in 2025.

 

I think at absolute most we will see the impending FAs traded. Beyond that, anyone expecting a major tear down is in for disappointment. If anything, Vlad and Bo struggling this badly makes it less likely for the team to get the assets back that would make it worth moving them, so it may not even be the best time.

 

I really hope not. Its always more dire than it seems in a skid like this. But I don't think its hyperbole to acknowledge that big decisions are now here.

 

Hey, if ATL can win 100 games the season after winning the ring and letting Freeman & Swanson walk (11.3 WAR combined), we need to be ok with moving Bo and Vlad (and anyone else) as soon as and if the deals makes sense.

 

Playoff contention probability this season lowers game by game, as does the value of some our assets. On others assets we have to hope they have positive regression and increase their value. Bo, Vlad, Kirk and Springer could not have engineered less value right now, if that was their actual objective.

[Brownie19]

I really hope not. Its always more dire than it seems in a skid like this. But I don't think its hyperbole to acknowledge that big decisions are now here.

 

Hey, if ATL can win 100 games the season after winning the ring and letting Freeman & Swanson walk (11.3 WAR combined), we need to be ok with moving Bo and Vlad (and anyone else) as soon as and if the deals makes sense.

 

Playoff contention probability this season lowers game by game, as does the value of some our assets. On others assets we have to hope they have positive regression and increase their value. Bo, Vlad, Kirk and Springer could not have engineered less value right now, if that was their actual objective.

 

I think everyone should prepare themselves for YEARS of misery. I mean what at the chances the new GM is even good? Like 50% There's a good chance we hire a boob who makes this worse and suddenly we're the White Sox - who not so long ago were flush with great young players and prospects themselves. There's a good probability we're a last place team until the turn of the decade.

[BigCecil]

I think it's fairly safe to say that they will reshuffle the organization in the off-season. As we all know, John Schneider may be the lame duck out there and get canned before the All-Star break; If not sooner, depending on if this team crashes and burns like they're doing right now. What I think will be the more important question going forward is who will Shapiro choose to replace Ross Atkins?There is a distinct possibility that the replacement could be a great deal worse than what Atkins was. I know a lot of posters on this board think that Atkins did a terrible job, but being a perennial playoff contender is not terrible in my books. Especially with gross underachievers like Guerrero and Bichette (currently).

 

We could do worse than Atkins. He made some very good moves. He is adept at 1 year deals and he signed an entire rotation to FA deals. One could argue thats both good and also not sustainable. Be nice to see more development internally.

 

He also had a huge payroll and wildcard era support in making us a playoff contender. Its not like we won a division title. Still, I agree lots of teams spend a lot and suck ass. We have been reasonably competitive. Props for that.

 

My main desire now is to bring very clinical objective decision making to what we do next over the next 2 years and Ross is not the guy for that IMO.

[MikeM3]

I think everyone should prepare themselves for YEARS of misery. I mean what at the chances the new GM is even good? Like 50% There's a good chance we hire a boob who makes this worse and suddenly we're the White Sox - who not so long ago were flush with great young players and prospects themselves. There's a good probability we're a last place team until the turn of the decade.

 

There's a good chance that's the case now because the Red Sox are way smarter. They flew past our FO.

 

It's actually an extremely bleak situation

[Laika]

There's a good chance that's the case now because the Red Sox are way smarter. They flew past our FO.

 

It's actually an extremely bleak situation

 

Yeah this surprised me

 

They are getting 90th percentile outcomes from their SP + they have started making some good transactions again like stealing O'Neill and stealing Wilyer Abreu from the Astros

 

For a bit it looked like they were washed up, cooked. My how the turn tables

[BTS]

There's a good chance that's the case now because the Red Sox are way smarter. They flew past our FO.

 

It's actually an extremely bleak situation

 

I can not even imagine the reaction on this forum if Atkins had guaranteed Bello and Rafaela $110M, wasted 40M on Giolito, or traded Chris Sale for Vaughn Grissom.

[Brownie19]

I can not even imagine the reaction on this forum if Atkins had guaranteed Bello and Rafaela $110M, wasted 40M on Giolito, or traded Chris Sale for Vaughn Grissom.

 

Are those good moves that an elite FO makes? or no?

[Brownie19]

It's crazy to think how the landscape of sports in Toronto has changed so much.

 

Raps were won of the best franchises in the NBA throughout the 2010's, including a championship in 2019

Jays make some serious noise (for the first time in 20+ years) in 2015/16 and then again in 2020-2023. We have a potential generational player in Vlad and a great sidekick in Bo.

Leafs land the #1 overall pick, land a franchise player in Matthews and create this exciting core with Marnier, Nylander, JT, Rielly, etc. and from like 2019-2023 it looked like the pieces could finally be in place to win a cup or at least sustain a window of contention.

 

and now....in 2024, it's all over. We are probably entering a period of darkness. It certainly seems like none of these teams will contend again, or even be interesting again until the turn of the decade (with the Leafs potentially being the exception - although I'm not sure why anyone would ever be optimistic about them). What a f***ing s***** time to be a sports fan in this area. Kids in Ontario may either find new teams to cheer for, or they may not get into any of these sports because of how s***** the local teams are. This could also reduce the number of kids who sign up to play sports. It's really terrible timing that all 3 teams are at the crossroads at the same time.

[MikeM3]

I can not even imagine the reaction on this forum if Atkins had guaranteed Bello and Rafaela $110M, wasted 40M on Giolito, or traded Chris Sale for Vaughn Grissom.

 

Most likely all good moves if Giolito didn't get hurt imo

 

Bello's extension is almost a no-brainer I think

[BigCecil]

Brownie19 makes "the devil you know" argument with Ross and its a fair one in my view. If we do hire a dud, it makes a tough situation worse.

 

OTOH I think ownership and or Shapiro needs to be quietly canvassing options. Leaving people at the helm who have inherent biases about assets etc developed over the last 9 years to navigate the next couple years is not ideal. I think the situation requires more detached, clinical business analysis and decision making at this point.

[keggy]

We could do worse than Atkins. He made some very good moves. He is adept at 1 year deals and he signed an entire rotation to FA deals.

 

This is not at all something I would staple to my CV

[Terminator]

So not only is this sinking ship of a team destined for last place, but things are going to get "extremely bleak" beyond just this year and we can expect "YEARS of misery" and a "period of darkness"? Wow!

[Brownie19]

Brownie19 makes "the devil you know" argument with Ross and its a fair one in my view. If we do hire a dud, it makes a tough situation worse.

 

OTOH I think ownership and or Shapiro needs to be quietly canvassing options. Leaving people at the helm who have inherent biases about assets etc developed over the last 9 years to navigate the next couple years is not ideal. I think the situation requires more detached, clinical business analysis and decision making at this point.

 

Even if we do magically find the next Top 5 FO in baseball - if the system is as f***ed up as some of you believe, it's going to take YEARS to fix it and then YEARS before we start to see the results. And even if we do, inevitably, some of those new top prospects are going to fail and we'll be looking for that new combination of hitting on top prospects all at the same time, coupled with the Owners desire to spend money. There's a decent probability we'll swing and miss a few times on that.

 

Some seem to think we'll just let Vlad/Bo walk or trade them and then we'll just sign Soto, Adames and Pete Alonso and we'll still be contenders. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Nobody is going to want to sign here if our FO is s*** and our core is gone. Even if they did - the chances of us becoming the Angels is really high (and man do I ever feel bad for them. Draft the best player in baseball, sign stars like Pujols, Rendon and Ohtani and it all still blows up in their face).

[MikeM3]

So not only is this sinking ship of a team destined for last place, but things are going to get "extremely bleak" beyond just this year and we can expect "YEARS of misery" and a "period of darkness"? Wow!

 

3 years ago I said the Os would pass us very quickly.

 

You can tell by the type of transactions a FO makes whether they're good or not. Schreiber for Sandlin means Breslow is smart. One year of Verdugo for Weissert and Fitts is smart. Hiring Bailey and dumping fastball usage is probably ahead of the curve.

 

And the Red Sox were supposed to be the dumbest in the division. If you look around the table and don't see a mark then you're the mark.

[Brownie19]

So not only is this sinking ship of a team destined for last place, but things are going to get "extremely bleak" beyond just this year and we can expect "YEARS of misery" and a "period of darkness"? Wow!

 

100% Term.

 

I honestly don't see an avenue to an alternative unless something crazy happens. We either need Vlad and Kirk to do a 180 and revert back to their young, all star levels and 2021 Springer to show up (like almost immediately), or we're going to need 2 f***ing NOBODY'S magically turn into Bautista/EE. Like suddenly Biggio and Horwitz become annual all-star players overnight.

[Terminator]

3 years ago I said the Os would pass us very quickly.

 

You can tell by the type of transactions a FO makes whether they're good or not. Schreiber for Sandlin means Breslow is smart. One year of Verdugo for Weissert and Fitts is smart. Hiring Bailey and dumping fastball usage is probably ahead of the curve.

 

And the Red Sox were supposed to be the dumbest in the division. If you look around the table and don't see a mark then you're the mark.

 

Seems a little early to crown the Red Sox as a smart new org. Perhaps they are, but if the Red Sox are "back" in just one offseason and (with just one month of above average play under their belt), then their fortunes could turn south just as quickly if they don't remain on the cutting edge of everything.

 

And if situations can change that fast then so could ours. All they did was push Chaim Bloom out and promote the guy under him. An Atkins to Click move would be similar so all this talk of everything being extremely bleak beyond this year is way too premature lol.

[BTS]

So not only is this sinking ship of a team destined for last place, but things are going to get "extremely bleak" beyond just this year and we can expect "YEARS of misery" and a "period of darkness"? Wow!

 

I don't have a strong opinion of Atkins either way. He's probably a mid-tier GM, and if the season continues to go up in flames he should be replaced. But if you read this forum, you'd think that the league is run by by 28 elite teams of super-geniuses who stack their teams by consistently robbing Ross Atkins and whoever runs the Rockies. Then you'd see that the team has averaged 91 wins a year for the last three years and be a bit confused about how the worst organization baseball pulled that off.

 

In reality Toronto has lost, what, like 2 trades in Atkins' tenure?

[Omar]

Even if we do magically find the next Top 5 FO in baseball - if the system is as f***ed up as some of you believe, it's going to take YEARS to fix it and then YEARS before we start to see the results. And even if we do, inevitably, some of those new top prospects are going to fail and we'll be looking for that new combination of hitting on top prospects all at the same time, coupled with the Owners desire to spend money. There's a decent probability we'll swing and miss a few times on that.

 

Some seem to think we'll just let Vlad/Bo walk or trade them and then we'll just sign Soto, Adames and Pete Alonso and we'll still be contenders. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Nobody is going to want to sign here if our FO is s*** and our core is gone. Even if they did - the chances of us becoming the Angels is really high (and man do I ever feel bad for them. Draft the best player in baseball, sign stars like Pujols, Rendon and Ohtani and it all still blows up in their face).

 

Money talks. Spending above the luxury tax threshold sure makes rebuilding easier to digest. If you pay them, people will come. It may be the our saving grace and save us from losing a 100 games a year.

 

Edit: if ownership keeps the purse strings open with the expected diminished attendance. Toronto fans are fickle.

[Stangstag]

100% Term.

 

I honestly don't see an avenue to an alternative unless something crazy happens. We either need Vlad and Kirk to do a 180 and revert back to their young, all star levels and 2021 Springer to show up (like almost immediately), or we're going to need 2 f***ing NOBODY'S magically turn into Bautista/EE. Like suddenly Biggio and Horwitz become annual all-star players overnight.

 

You’re such a boob

[Brownie19]

You’re such a boob

 

Huh? Why do you say that? Those are the 2 options I see that would save the Jays from facing several years of 4th or 5th place finishes. You see other options?

[Brownie19]

Money talks. Spending above the luxury tax threshold sure makes rebuilding easier to digest. If you pay them, people will come. It may be the our saving grace and save us from losing a 100 games a year.

 

Edit: if ownership keeps the purse strings open with the expected diminished attendance. Toronto fans are fickle.

 

I don't know man. There are just too many teams that have tried to buy their way out of tough situations, only for it to blow up in their faces. It's even failed for the Yankees, who haven't been buying their way to division titles and championships very well since about 2013. Those guys finished 1st or 2nd in the division 18 of 19 seasons (including 1st 14 times between 1994 and 2012).

 

And although we've been able to attract some good FA's over the past 4 years, we had all kinds of issues with that over the past 30 years. If the core is gone, I don't think we'll attract the top FA's. Overpaying for middling FA's isn't going to end well for this team (IMO).

[Eat My Shatkins]

I don't have a strong opinion of Atkins either way. He's probably a mid-tier GM, and if the season continues to go up in flames he should be replaced. But if you read this forum, you'd think that the league is run by by 28 elite teams of super-geniuses who stack their teams by consistently robbing Ross Atkins and whoever runs the Rockies. Then you'd see that the team has averaged 91 wins a year for the last three years and be a bit confused about how the worst organization baseball pulled that off.

 

In reality Toronto has lost, what, like 2 trades in Atkins' tenure?

 

Averaged 91 wins a year for the last three years despite their homegrown young core completely imploding in on itself.

 

It's clear that Atkins was able to surround the core with a pretty damn strong team, now the question is how much blame should be put on Atkins for not identifying a rotten core, or is there something he's done/doing that is the cause of the core rotting?

 

You could also argue that Atkins did indeed suspect the core might fail somewhat, as not a single one of them have been extended to long term deals, and as a result this team might be able to pivot quickly from that core and start a retool beginning this year if things don't turn around.

[Omar]

I don't know man. There are just too many teams that have tried to buy their way out of tough situations, only for it to blow up in their faces. It's even failed for the Yankees, who haven't been buying their way to division titles and championships very well since about 2013. Those guys finished 1st or 2nd in the division 18 of 19 seasons (including 1st 14 times between 1994 and 2012).

 

And although we've been able to attract some good FA's over the past 4 years, we had all kinds of issues with that over the past 30 years. If the core is gone, I don't think we'll attract the top FA's. Overpaying for middling FA's isn't going to end well for this team (IMO).

 

Yeah I don't mean buy your way out but make the process more palatable. Not everyone has to go through what the Astros went through years ago. Most markets don't have the will.

[Brownie19]

Averaged 91 wins a year for the last three years despite their homegrown young core completely imploding in on itself.

 

It's clear that Atkins was able to surround the core with a pretty damn strong team, now the question is how much blame should be put on Atkins for not identifying a rotten core, or is there something he's done/doing that is the cause of the core rotting?

 

I don't think any of that matters now. I guess it might for Atkins when he interviews for his next job. It's over. This team is dead whether Atkins actually did a good job here or whether he did a s***** job. This team is awful and even if they turn it around somewhat, this season is lost, which means Atkins is probably gone as the GM. The incoming GM will likely have to clean house, selling our impending FA's for whatever he can get. Rogers will likely cut payroll, which won't matter because top players won't really want to play here for the time being. We'll sign a bunch of vets to short terms deals and try and deal them at the deadline for prospects to help accelerate the rebuild. If all goes well, perhaps we'll have a young, up and coming team by 2028/29. Hopefully by then Rogers will bump the payroll back up and we can start to add some meaningful pieces to contend by 2030?

 

And that's all assuming we hire a good GM who keeps us ahead of the curve.

[Brownie19]

Yeah I don't mean buy your way out but make the process more palatable. Not everyone has to go through what the Astros went through years ago. Most markets don't have the will.

 

That's fair. I think we'll spend on veteran FA's on short term deals with the goal of trading them for prospects at the deadline. I just don't see us trying to buy FA's to keep "the window open" when most of the younger players (Kirk, Manoah, Vlad, Barriera, Ricky, Pearson) all s*** the bed. If we still had a young, successful core coming up, then maybe that approach would work (replace some pending FA's with new ones)...but I just don't see that working well.

[MikeM3]

I don't have a strong opinion of Atkins either way. He's probably a mid-tier GM, and if the season continues to go up in flames he should be replaced. But if you read this forum, you'd think that the league is run by by 28 elite teams of super-geniuses who stack their teams by consistently robbing Ross Atkins and whoever runs the Rockies. Then you'd see that the team has averaged 91 wins a year for the last three years and be a bit confused about how the worst organization baseball pulled that off.

 

In reality Toronto has lost, what, like 2 trades in Atkins' tenure?

 

The title is Sinking, not sunk. We're clearly trending down. No matter how many small trades you win, the 8 years of whiffed 1st rounders will catch up.

 

If you look at our best players with 3 years of control its like Berrios and Schneider?