Your 2024 Jays Projection?

[Jays24]

There's been a lot of discussion on how this past offseason went and what it means for the Jays this upcoming season. The Jays won 89 games last year and finished in the 6th Wild Card Spot last year.

 

So now that we pretty much know what the Jays final roster will be, what are your predictions on how many games the Jays will win and where they will finish? It would be great to bump this thread to know where the most positive posters vs the most pessimist posters stood.

 

Personally, I see this team being slightly worse than last year and finishing with 86 wins. Hard to know where that lands them in the final standings but I'd guess we finish 7th and on the outside of a wild card spot. Of course the predictions would be subject to change if the Jays make major trades before the deadline or encounter major injuries as well.

[Jonn]

As it stands currently. I got them winning between 80-83 games. Think they are banking way to much on bounce back performance. When outside of the Jansen and Bo injuries the Jays had almost perfect health last year especially from the Rotation. Feel this lineup has taken a step back and will struggle to score runs. Major concerns about 2B and 3B. Jury is out on LF and we know we aren't getting offense from CF. George Springer actually stayed healthy last year but was nowhere near the player he has been in the past. Outfield offensively also a massive concern for me.

 

I'm going to go 83-79 and they miss the 3rd wild card spot by 4 games.

[Carlos Danger]

AL East:

1. Yankees

2. Orioles

3. Rays

4. Blue Jays

5. Red Sox

 

I’l buy that for a dollar.

[G-Snarls]

85 wins and third place

[Krylian]

84 wins

[Stangstag]

90 wins. Tied for WC3 but they make it due to better H2H record

[Sorrow]

89 wins

 

Orioles

Jays

Yankees

Rays

Red Sox

 

All teams above .500 no team wins more than 93 games.

[CrackerJack]

would’ve said low 80s … but with fewer games against divisional opponents now … i’ll bump it up to mid 80s.

[WryNGinger]

I'll say 86

[BatFlip]

89 wins

 

Orioles

Jays

Yankees

Rays

Red Sox

 

All teams above .500 no team wins more than 93 games.

 

 

Ditto, except I would flip the Yankees and the Orioles.

[L54]

I'll say 86

 

My thoughts too. This is an 86-88 win team

 

Ways to outperform:

 

Ricky T is a dawg

Davis Schneider is actually good and puts up 3 WAR

Vlad obviously

Catching tandem isn’t dog s***/hurt

[TheHurl]

1. Jays

2. Yankees

3. Rays

4. O's

5 Red Sox

[BTS]

88 wins and a WC spot

[Spanky99]

90-72... the poll has too much variance. Dumn!

[Dick_Pole]

90 wins. I think this is the year where the team outperforms its run differential. Banking to be on the right side of a lot of close games.

[Laika]

100 wins

 

everybody beasts.... other than Manoah, who politely gets out of the way

[Abomination]

100 wins

 

everybody beasts.... other than Manoah, who politely gets out of the way

 

Manoah will win the Cy Young. This is the new bold predictions thread, right?

[Omar]

87 wins is doable.

 

You guys with less than 80 win predictions are classic ignore list material. We want names.

[PitaBaby]

Pitching aside, and barring a miracle aka Bo and Vladdy having career years, they aren't even getting a wild card spot. Book it.

[wilko]

Pitching aside, and barring a miracle aka Bo and Vladdy having career years, they aren't even getting a wild card spot. Book it.

 

Can you update your ICQ link? I tried adding you and it said there was an error.

[PitaBaby]

Can you update your ICQ link? I tried adding you and it said there was an error.

 

Not sure why there's still an ICQ link there, it's supposed to be MSN Messenger. The admin needs to get with the times. Unreal.

[Pendleton]

My projection for the Blue Jays season is, can't we all just have a good time?

[jaysblue]

I selected 85-89 wins but would say 85 or 86 wins to be exact. If they have some bounce backs from Vlad, and one of Springer/Varsho/Kirk and if the rotation stays relatively healthy, could see them being an 88-90 win team.

[max silver]

I predict 88 wins, but with a lot of variability with this team depending on health, bounce back seasons and relative improvements at the plate sticking. I think if the offense continues to struggle again and the pitching takes a step back the team would settle into the low 80's range, and if the offense improves a fair bit and the pitching staff remains as effective the team would win in the low to mid 90's range.

 

With continued good health I think the pitching has a shot to be even better. Kikuchi has added a new changeup to his repertoire, Berrios added a cutter, Manoah is better conditioned and the stuff has improved as well. The shoulder issues for Manoah and Gausman are semi concerning but each is reportedly mild in nature. This could affect the availability for these guys to start the season if they don't have time to fully build up their workloads. I think the rotation depth looks better as Francis added a splitter to his arsenal, White has carried over the stuff improvements from the end of the AAA season, Tiedemann may debut this season, and even Parsons may have improved his stuff a bit from the season prior. The pen should once again be very good with a shot to be even better as the team will enjoy potential full seasons from Chad Green and Genesis Cabrera. The upper minors has a lot of flamethrowing depth options in case of underperformance and/or injury.

 

The biggest key for the club will be improvements from the offense. There were so many underperformances from a season ago that the team will require closer to expected performances from most of these guys if the offense is to be a strength. There are a lot of reasons to hope for improvements:

 

Vlad - literal best shape of his life, tweaked his swing to quiet his hands

Bo - noticeably slimmer, hopefully helps improve his mobility and ability to avoid injury

Springer - weird season where April was awful due to combination of bad luck and viral illness that left lingering symptoms. Hit really deep slump in July. Manager comments about wanting to return to pulling the ball more which was missing a season ago.

Kirk - maybe slimmed down a touch but already has two home runs in the spring, hopefully he squares up more baseballs at the plate as this has been missing

Varsho - better to end season after adding toe tap, reworked swing in offseason to avoid popups by trying to impact top of ball more. Hopefully launch angle not overly negative leading to more ground balls

Biggio - had nice 4 month run to end season after leveling out swing. Behind others due to spring shoulder issue, needs to get off to better start at the plate as a notorious slow starter that really struggles in March/April historically

Jansen - needs to avoid injury bug, playing for new contract so should be extra motivated to have a big season at the plate

Turner - getting old but had a 5 month stretch where he was a 128 wRC+ bat before tanking at end of season, possibly due to deep heel bruise. Hopefully stays healthy and productive for one more season.

IKF - had best 4 month stretch of career as a 750 OPS/110-115 wRC+ bat before massive spike in k rate to end season. Made notable improvements to quality of contact metrics, likely primary reason why his services were in demand.

Schneider - still needs to show that he can be a full time major leaguer. Faces questions about ability to adjust back at the plate after late season barrage of breaking pitches down and away.

[Spanky99]

Holy s***...

[saskjayfan]

91 wins. Can we win a freaking wild card game this year, please!

[saskjayfan]

91 wins. Can we win a freaking wild card game this year, please!

[mphenhef]

I voted 85-89 as that's the safest bet. The offense has to be a massive concern and I'm not sure the elevation of Mattingly is enough to fix the issues they had when also accounting for downgrades from last year at several positions. Pitching was unusually healthy last year and it's looking early on that that may not be the case this year.

[Nexii]

85 wins

Lots of average to good players but few superstars to push them into 90+ territory. It could happen, but I'm not counting on it. Team depth is pretty good though so I'd be surprised if we ended any lower than 81 wins

[G-Snarls]

85 wins

Lots of average to good players but few superstars to push them into 90+ territory. It could happen, but I'm not counting on it. Team depth is pretty good though so I'd be surprised if we ended any lower than 81 wins

 

Yeah... the "floor" on the win total feels solid thanks to the pitching and depth, but the ceiling doesn't feel like 90+ wins due to what is likely to be an average-at-best offense.