Around Baseball 2024

[Stangstag]

Jays better hurry up and sign Santander before the Dodgers decide to pay Teo 100 million…

[Jays24]

f*** the Dodgers man. s*** ain't even fair lol.

 

I will assume they are out of the Soto sweepstakes and will re-sign Teo instead..

[Stangstag]

How so? Projected to go 5/160 and this contract's with deferrals. I agree with f*** the Dodgers though, lol.

 

Math is hard eh?

 

182 > 160

 

And the 160/5 guess was pretty bold… how many sites predicted that?

 

Also the Dodgers deferring money yet again is f***ing nonsense

[Spanky__99]

Math is hard eh?

 

182 > 160

 

And the 160/5 guess was pretty bold… how many sites predicted that?

 

Also the Dodgers deferring money yet again is f***ing nonsense

 

Math is hard, are you f***ing serious? 182 with deferrals is likely in or around that ballpark number, if I were to guess. MLBTR and Fangraphs in consideration to AAV it's between 32-35M.

[saskjayfan]

Math is hard, are you f***ing serious? 182 with deferrals is likely in or around that ballpark number, if I were to guess. MLBTR and Fangraphs in consideration to AAV it's between 32-35M.

 

He got paid 52 million as a signing bonus. If you're going to allow discounting of deferrals, you should add to the luxury tax for signing bonuses.

[John_Havok]

He got paid 52 million as a signing bonus. If you're going to allow discounting of deferrals, you should add to the luxury tax for signing bonuses.

 

I'm not sure what angle the Dodgers are ultimately playing from here. A 5 year deal for Snell seems extremely ill advised. The signing bonus and deferral thing really need to be looked at in the next CBA. They're clearly being abused to circumvent luxury taxes

[saskjayfan]

Math is hard, are you f***ing serious? 182 with deferrals is likely in or around that ballpark number, if I were to guess. MLBTR and Fangraphs in consideration to AAV it's between 32-35M.

 

If you're allowed to discount deferrals you should have to add for signing bonuses. The difference between the Annuity future value of 52 mil paid evenly over 5 years at 5.25 percent is 57. Paid day 1 as a signing bonus it grows to 67 mil. That bonus should add 2 mil to the Tax AAV. If you're not going to do this calculation, how do you allow deferrals to be discounted. I doubt they add that 2 mil, so this is just the Dodgers working the system because they have boatloads of cash and it's no biggy to put up 52 in order to throw in deferrals to lower the AAV. They are in the 100% tax so it makes sense for them to do this.

[Masterbather]

I wouldn't have wanted Snell for that price. I suspect that'll be the case for most free agents. The best thing that could happen to this organization is that the market slaps down their ridiculous efforts to rebuild the team through free agency so we can get on with the rebuild/retool that's required. Snell is off the board, Soto was never really on it for us. Please don't go blow your brains out on the Santander's of the world.

[saskjayfan]

I'm not sure what angle the Dodgers are ultimately playing from here. A 5 year deal for Snell seems extremely ill advised. The signing bonus and deferral thing really need to be looked at in the next CBA. They're clearly being abused to circumvent luxury taxes

 

The Dodgers are the guy that wins the billion dollar powerball lottery and goes to vegas and doubles down on the black jack table when he gets dealt a 5 because well....it really doesn't f***ing matter because you have so much money..lol. Watch them sign Soto next. It's ridiculous.

[John_Havok]

The Dodgers are the guy that wins the billion dollar powerball lottery and goes to vegas and doubles down on the black jack table when he gets dealt a 5 because well....it really doesn't f***ing matter because you have so much money..lol. Watch them sign Soto next. It's ridiculous.

 

What it means is, the next CBA is gonna be a s*** show and it's not that far away.

Edited November 27, 2024 by John_Havok

[Spanky__99]

He got paid 52 million as a signing bonus. If you're going to allow discounting of deferrals, you should add to the luxury tax for signing bonuses.

 

If you're allowed to discount deferrals you should have to add for signing bonuses. The difference between the Annuity future value of 52 mil paid evenly over 5 years at 5.25 percent is 57. Paid day 1 as a signing bonus it grows to 67 mil. That bonus should add 2 mil to the Tax AAV. If you're not going to do this calculation, how do you allow deferrals to be discounted. I doubt they add that 2 mil, so this is just the Dodgers working the system because they have boatloads of cash and it's no biggy to put up 52 in order to throw in deferrals to lower the AAV. They are in the 100% tax so it makes sense for them to do this.

 

Yes, well that's CBA s*** I don't care to bother getting into. I'm pretty sure other teams can defer money if they want, from the Ohtani thread last year I remember his money was 700M that came out to be around 475M, IIRC.

[Spanky__99]

Dodgers SP depth, lmao...

 

Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Roki Sasaki, Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May and Emmet Sheehan

 

Not even counting the guys that have debuted and are waiting in the wings in the minors.

[Terminator]

That’s a massive number for Snell. Will be interested to see the deferrals. Everyone will lose their mind but it’ll still come out to some whopping number over 5 years. Crazy after the offseason he had last year.

[Spanky__99]

That’s a massive number for Snell. Will be interested to see the deferrals. Everyone will lose their mind but it’ll still come out to some whopping number over 5 years. Crazy after the offseason he had last year.

 

He had no ST, he was untouchable in the second half, I think that's about what market was for him. I think, if it's around 5/160ish, no?

 

ETA: See, I was right...

 

The Dodgers continue to load up, as they’ve reached agreement with Blake Snell on a five-year contract. The deal, which is pending a physical, comes with a $182MM guarantee but reportedly includes around $60MM in deferrals that’ll reduce the net present value to the $160-165MM range. Snell, a client of the Boras Corporation, receives a $52MM signing bonus and limited no-trade protection, while the deal includes a $5MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade. The contract does not contain any opt-out provisions and covers Snell’s age 32-36 seasons.

 

So his NPV is between 160-165M, I'd have been okay if the Jays dished that out. My math turned out pretty good... jus' sayin'

Edited November 27, 2024 by Spanky99

[Eat My Shatkins]

Dodgers SP depth, lmao...

 

Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Roki Sasaki, Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May and Emmet Sheehan

 

Not even counting the guys that have debuted and are waiting in the wings in the minors.

 

Did the Dodgers actually land Sasaki or are they just the favorites?

[Spanky__99]

Did the Dodgers actually land Sasaki or are they just the favorites?

 

Favourites.

[BTS]

Not really understanding the outrage/shock over Snell getting a deal worth ~5/160. He’s a top-5 pitcher in baseball when he’s going well, and he’s often going well in the second half, which is all the dodgers care about. I would have been fine with the jays doing this.

[jaysblue]

Kikuchi at 3 years/$63M looking like a bargain now.

 

Granted, Kikuchi isn't on the same level as Snell, but would rather Kikuchi at that price and years over Snell.

 

Dodgers are a great fit for Snell. Pitchers ballpark, NL West, and perfect baseball weather. No wonder why he decided to stay out on the west coast. They don't need him for 30+ starts or need to push him 7 innings each turn during the regular season. As long as he's healthy, and they can ride his arm in the second half and then in the Postseason, he'll be a valuable piece in the rotation for them. He only needs to toss around 150 innings during the regular season, then save all his bullets for the Postseason.

[jaysblue]

Not really understanding the outrage/shock over Snell getting a deal worth ~5/160. He’s a top-5 pitcher in baseball when he’s going well, and he’s often going well in the second half, which is all the dodgers care about. I would have been fine with the jays doing this.

 

He wasn't going to come to the Jays anyways. The price definitely would have been more to pitch in Toronto.

 

Atkins and company have placed emphasis on arms that are durable and who could stay healthy (e.g. Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt). I don't think Snell fits with their MO. Yes, when he's on he could be a difference maker and one of the best arms in the game, though the Jays really need an arm that could help them get through the 162 first and Snell with his history, I'm not sure he would have been a perfect fit at this time. Plus, spending 36M AAV on him likely hinders them from adding elsewhere on the roster. Snell alone won't put the Jays over the top.

[saskjayfan]

Not really understanding the outrage/shock over Snell getting a deal worth ~5/160. HeÂ’s a top-5 pitcher in baseball when heÂ’s going well, and heÂ’s often going well in the second half, which is all the dodgers care about. I would have been fine with the jays doing this.

 

60 mil in deferrals bringing it to 160 to 165. So the contract is reduced 17 to 22 mil or 4 mil a year. From the player perspective in a time value of money he got almost 30% of his contract paid out yesterday as a signing bonus. That 52 mil adds 10 mil or 2 mil but isn't reflected in the luxury tax figure. That s*** should be sorted out in the next CBA. So he's on the books for 32 mil a year. It should be 34. It's not a massive difference, but it still 2 mil. If they do the same with Soto the difference would probably be 8 to 10 mil because of the length of the contract. Now other teams could do the same too and whatever the Dodgers can do, Cohen can match.

[glory]

There's very little chance Soto defers money, so I don't see him going to the Dodgers.

[BTS]

60 mil in deferrals bringing it to 160 to 165. So the contract is reduced 17 to 22 mil or 4 mil a year. From the player perspective in a time value of money he got almost 30% of his contract paid out yesterday as a signing bonus. That 52 mil adds 10 mil or 2 mil but isn't reflected in the luxury tax figure. That s*** should be sorted out in the next CBA. So he's on the books for 32 mil a year. It should be 34. It's not a massive difference, but it still 2 mil. If they do the same with Soto the difference would probably be 8 to 10 mil because of the length of the contract. Now other teams could do the same too and whatever the Dodgers can do, Cohen can match.

 

I don't have a firm grasp on the specifics of this yet. Take three hypothetical 5/100 deals:

 

1. Pays out 20M a year for 5 years

2. Pays out 5/5/5/5/80

3. Pays out 80/5/5/5/5

 

These would all have a 20M tax amount for the life of the deal, right? With the NPV only being adjusted down with deferrals beyond the term of the 5-year deal?

 

Or am I getting that wrong?

[Spanky__99]

He wasn't going to come to the Jays anyways. The price definitely would have been more to pitch in Toronto.

 

Atkins and company have placed emphasis on arms that are durable and who could stay healthy (e.g. Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt). I don't think Snell fits with their MO. Yes, when he's on he could be a difference maker and one of the best arms in the game, though the Jays really need an arm that could help them get through the 162 first and Snell with his history, I'm not sure he would have been a perfect fit at this time. Plus, spending 36M AAV on him likely hinders them from adding elsewhere on the roster. Snell alone won't put the Jays over the top.

 

I thought you were championing Blake Snell?

[saskjayfan]

I don't have a firm grasp on the specifics of this yet. Take three hypothetical 5/100 deals:

 

1. Pays out 20M a year for 5 years

2. Pays out 5/5/5/5/80

3. Pays out 80/5/5/5/5

 

These would all have a 20M tax amount for the life of the deal, right? With the NPV only being adjusted down with deferrals beyond the term of the 5-year deal?

 

Or am I getting that wrong?

 

There's only 130 to pay out. He got 52 million dollars as a signing bonus. As in yesterday they handed him 52 million dollars. That's my issue. If you have a deal 5 year 52 mil contract that's 10.4 mil against the cap paid out once a year over the next 5 years. If you take 5.25% interest rate and do an annuity FV on 10.4 paid out evenly for 5 years you get 57 mil. If you compound 52 mil for 5 years at 5.25 you get 67. My point was they allow discounting for deferrals but they don't take into account outsized abnormal signing bonuses in the tax calculation. It doesn't really matter. The Dodgers have an insane amount of money. Once they sign Soto and deal with their bullpen their payroll will be 370 to 380 which is close to 500 when the tax is paid. Tack on another 50 mil posting fee, which doesn't count against the tax, if they sign Sasaki. Baseball is really fun for small to mid market teams in the national league.

[saskjayfan]

I thought you were championing Blake Snell?

 

Blake Snell has pitched 180 innings twice. His career high beyond that is 129 innings. Only teams with crazy budgets can gamble on a long term deal on a guy like that. He pairs very well with Glasnow..lol

[Stangstag]

There's only 130 to pay out. He got 52 million dollars as a signing bonus. As in yesterday they handed him 52 million dollars. That's my issue. If you have a deal 5 year 52 mil contract that's 10.4 mil against the cap paid out once a year over the next 5 years. If you take 5.25% interest rate and do an annuity FV on 10.4 paid out evenly for 5 years you get 57 mil. If you compound 52 mil for 5 years at 5.25 you get 67. My point was they allow discounting for deferrals but they don't take into account outsized abnormal signing bonuses in the tax calculation. It doesn't really matter. The Dodgers have an insane amount of money. Once they sign Soto and deal with their bullpen their payroll will be 370 to 380 which is close to 500 when the tax is paid. Tack on another 50 mil posting fee, which doesn't count against the tax, if they sign Sasaki. Baseball is really fun for small to mid market teams in the national league.

 

Yup its all ******** and completely goes against what competitive balance is all about.

 

And its the f***ing Dodgers doing this on pretty much every free agent they sign. Sofly circumventing the spirit of the rules.

 

f*** them

[saskjayfan]

Yup its all ******** and completely goes against what competitive balance is all about.

 

And its the f***ing Dodgers doing this on pretty much every free agent they sign. Sofly circumventing the spirit of the rules.

 

f*** them

 

The only saving grace is it won't help them in the Soto negotiations. Cohen can match the 150 or 200 mil signing bonus with deferrals. He might have to sell a painting or two, but there's shortage of upfront cash with Cohen.

[BTS]

There's only 130 to pay out. He got 52 million dollars as a signing bonus. As in yesterday they handed him 52 million dollars. That's my issue. If you have a deal 5 year 52 mil contract that's 10.4 mil against the cap paid out once a year over the next 5 years. If you take 5.25% interest rate and do an annuity FV on 10.4 paid out evenly for 5 years you get 57 mil. If you compound 52 mil for 5 years at 5.25 you get 67. My point was they allow discounting for deferrals but they don't take into account outsized abnormal signing bonuses in the tax calculation. It doesn't really matter. The Dodgers have an insane amount of money. Once they sign Soto and deal with their bullpen their payroll will be 370 to 380 which is close to 500 when the tax is paid. Tack on another 50 mil posting fee, which doesn't count against the tax, if they sign Sasaki. Baseball is really fun for small to mid market teams in the national league.

 

I understand what you're saying. I'm curious as to whether any distribution of, say, 100M over a 5-year contract would come with a 20M tax hit per year and if deferrals only reduce the NPV if they go beyond the term of the contract.

[Brownie19]

The way I understood it is there isn't really some major loophole when deferring money or paying signing bonuses. It all gets captured in the luxury tax calculations. Deferring money just helps the team finance the deals better and now a large signing bonus gets the agent their money sooner (as they don't get their cut on the deferred money until it's paid).

 

I don't think this setup is giving the Dodgers an advantage that other teams can't also implement. It's just the Dodgers have more money to spend than most teams. Am I missing something? I don't see this as a major CBA sticking point.

[Spanky__99]

Blake Snell has pitched 180 innings twice. His career high beyond that is 129 innings. Only teams with crazy budgets can gamble on a long term deal on a guy like that. He pairs very well with Glasnow..lol

 

I wouldn't mind Glasnow and Snell in our rotation...