Around Baseball 2024

[MikeM3]

Sign Robertson

[jaysblue]

Isn't that exactly what the Mets would be doing? LOL

 

Baty is an ideal change of scenery guy. It's probably setting in that he's on the verge of being a bust....the first extended failures in his baseball career. This could make him the ideal target as he should be as motivated as he's ever been to get to work and turn his career around. No guarantees, but depending on the price, he might be a great target.

 

Baty has looked pretty overmatched at the big league level and I don't think he would be a "great target" given the team planning to contend in 2025. 68 wRC+ in 2023 over 389 PA and a career 72 wRC+ thus far. Sorry to "s*** on your suggestions," but I will. Sound familiar?

[jaysblue]

Read that teams were enquiring on Brett Baty at the deadline as well, I wonder if the Jays were among them.

 

If the acquisition price isn't expensive, rolling the dice on Baty and having him battle for the 3B job during ST with Clement isn't that bad of an idea, if the Jays decide they need to allot money elsewhere on the roster such as resigning Vladdy, OF and the rotation.

 

Looks like he's going to be a bust, but he's still young enough where you might be able to catch some lightning in a bottle. Just wouldn't solely rely on him at 3B heading into 2025 if the Jays are planning to contend.

[Spanky__99]

TIL 24 year old Baty is a bust with a seasons worth of AB's...

[Terminator]

Baty could be solid if the price was right. Bats lefty so he and Clement could make for a decent platoon.

[Spanky__99]

River Ryan done for the season UCL strain, next step is whether surgery is required.

 

Zebby Matthews is getting called up to join the Twins rotation tomorrow night for Joe Ryan.

Edited August 12, 2024 by Spanky99

[jaysblue]

TIL 24 year old Baty is a bust with a seasons worth of AB's...

 

I said it looks like he's going to be a bust. I acknowledged that he's still young enough where he's worth rolling the dice on if the acquisition cost is reasonable. If the Jays decide to spend big money in the rotation and other areas in the lineup such as LF and DH, I have no issue with the Jays acquiring Baty and having him battle or platoon with Clement at 3B.

[Brownie19]

Baty has looked pretty overmatched at the big league level and I don't think he would be a "great target" given the team planning to contend in 2025. 68 wRC+ in 2023 over 389 PA and a career 72 wRC+ thus far. Sorry to "s*** on your suggestions," but I will. Sound familiar?

 

Assuming you can get Baty for a reasonable price, he's is a significantly better target than McMahon and Burger and I'm willing to debate/discuss that with whomever would like to. I'm not just listing 3rd basemen who might be available - I'm suggesting someone who I think is a good target and would make sense for the Jays as they try to re-tool.

[John_Havok]

Assuming you can get Baty for a reasonable price, he's is a significantly better target than McMahon and Burger and I'm willing to debate/discuss that with whomever would like to. I'm not just listing 3rd basemen who might be available - I'm suggesting someone who I think is a good target and would make sense for the Jays as they try to re-tool.

 

Jordan Walker perhaps from STL

[jaysblue]

Assuming you can get Baty for a reasonable price, he's is a significantly better target than McMahon and Burger and I'm willing to debate/discuss that with whomever would like to. I'm not just listing 3rd basemen who might be available - I'm suggesting someone who I think is a good target and would make sense for the Jays as they try to re-tool.

 

Nothing wrong with Ryan McMahon at third base if you want a left-handed bat who is solid defensively and has experience. He's going to give you a WAR between 2.5 and 3 most likely with 20-25 HR's. Nothing special offensively, but still a solid option nonetheless. The Rockies likely don't trade him anyways, since logic doesn't exist with that organization.

 

Baty is younger and has more upside given his age, but has very little experience and has looked overmatched at the big league level. If the Jays plan on not contending in 2025, he's a fine target in hoping a change of scenery helps rejuvenate his bat. If the Jays plan on contending, Baty can still be a decent option if the Jays decide to spend most of their payroll elsewhere like resigning Vlad to an extension, finding a bat for LF and DH and a top of the rotation arm. Having him platoon with Clement wouldn't be a bad thing, if the Jays need to allot money elsewhere on the roster.

 

As for Jake Burger, defensively he's awful but if you brought him in mainly as a DH who occasionally could play some 3B alongside with Clement, not the end of the world. Not my first, second or third choice, but he does offer some raw power, which is what this lineup has really lacked this season. Since July 1st, Burger has posted a 191 wRC+ which is tied for 8th best in all of baseball and leads all of baseball with 15 HR's since! Jays could definitely use a bat like that.

[jaysblue]

Jordan Walker perhaps from STL

 

Dylan Carlson in his first 8 games with Rays hasn't been that bad. Still very early, but I could see Carlson being a decent OF option for them.

[Brownie19]

Jordan Walker perhaps from STL

 

Man - the Cards seem to have ruined Walker. I'd certainly see how much they still value him. There's a possibility the Cards and Mets both still value Walker and Baty a lot and won't be willing to give them away on a discount.

[Jimcanuck]

Jordan Walker perhaps from STL

 

He would be expensive. BA says his early numbers were mainly bad luck:

 

Jordan Walker is such a mammoth human that it’s sometimes easy to forget just how young he is. In fact, he’s more than three months younger than Dylan Crews. I want you to put yourself in Jordan Walker’s shoes for a second. You’re a consensus top 5 prospect coming into the 2023 season, and not only do you make the club, but you post a 116 wRC+ in your first season, while learning a new position that you’ve never played before. Then the clock turns to 2024, and you get some bad luck, and boom, you’re now back in Triple-A. I’m speaking for myself here, but if that happened to me, I’d find it very hard to pick myself up and perform at my best.

 

This is important context when we evaluate Walker’s early season struggles at AAA. We often forget that these are human beings (other than perhaps Corey Kluber), and that being good at baseball is really really hard. Let me show you some pictures.

 

Jordan Walker in 2023 showed slightly below average launch angles, but excellent power, which gave him above average contact quality. He made about average in-zone contact and traded some in-zone aggression for some out-of-zone chase. This fully supported his quality rookie season, and is quite exceptional for a 21 year old making their MLB debut.

 

Fast forward to early this season. He chases less. He swings at pitches in the zone more. His average exit velocity is up. His contact is up. His zone contact is improved. His launch angles are improved. Practically everything that matters is better than it was the previous year, exactly what you’d expect from a precocious young talent. But there was one big problem, his slugging on contact was way down, as the gods of baseball did not shine their favour on him in the early going. Inexplicably, the Cardinals sent him down, a decision I couldn’t disagree with more. He got better! If they had just waited a month or two, the top-level results would have been more in line with the underlying metrics.

 

Walker, despite his struggles after he was demoted, still hits the ball really hard, with plus exit velocities against all pitch types, and still makes a ton of contact. I tried to find some clear data-driven reasons as to why Walker is playing well again, but I couldn’t find anything definitive. I think it’s as simple as this: he finally got over being demoted and has found himself again.

[L54]

McMahon would be the Jays 3rd most valuable position player and 3rd highest wRC+

[Jimcanuck]

Walker .343/.400/.687 with five home runs over his last 75 plate appearances, and the Cards have called him up and he's 7th in the order today.

 

I suspect the poor results in the early going, despite the batted ball improvements, was affecting him and the Cards sent him down to get him out of the pressure cooker.

[Brownie19]

McMahon would be the Jays 3rd most valuable position player and 3rd highest wRC+

 

He's IKF at $11.67M a year for the next 3 years.

[Laika]

Jays should claim Nick Robertson

 

Make him throw 70% sliders

[G-Snarls]

Jarren Duran should avoid yelling at fans - at least when he's on a live microphone

[John_Havok]

He would be expensive. BA says his early numbers were mainly bad luck:

 

Jordan Walker is such a mammoth human that it’s sometimes easy to forget just how young he is. In fact, he’s more than three months younger than Dylan Crews. I want you to put yourself in Jordan Walker’s shoes for a second. You’re a consensus top 5 prospect coming into the 2023 season, and not only do you make the club, but you post a 116 wRC+ in your first season, while learning a new position that you’ve never played before. Then the clock turns to 2024, and you get some bad luck, and boom, you’re now back in Triple-A. I’m speaking for myself here, but if that happened to me, I’d find it very hard to pick myself up and perform at my best.

 

This is important context when we evaluate Walker’s early season struggles at AAA. We often forget that these are human beings (other than perhaps Corey Kluber), and that being good at baseball is really really hard. Let me show you some pictures.

 

Jordan Walker in 2023 showed slightly below average launch angles, but excellent power, which gave him above average contact quality. He made about average in-zone contact and traded some in-zone aggression for some out-of-zone chase. This fully supported his quality rookie season, and is quite exceptional for a 21 year old making their MLB debut.

 

Fast forward to early this season. He chases less. He swings at pitches in the zone more. His average exit velocity is up. His contact is up. His zone contact is improved. His launch angles are improved. Practically everything that matters is better than it was the previous year, exactly what you’d expect from a precocious young talent. But there was one big problem, his slugging on contact was way down, as the gods of baseball did not shine their favour on him in the early going. Inexplicably, the Cardinals sent him down, a decision I couldn’t disagree with more. He got better! If they had just waited a month or two, the top-level results would have been more in line with the underlying metrics.

 

Walker, despite his struggles after he was demoted, still hits the ball really hard, with plus exit velocities against all pitch types, and still makes a ton of contact. I tried to find some clear data-driven reasons as to why Walker is playing well again, but I couldn’t find anything definitive. I think it’s as simple as this: he finally got over being demoted and has found himself again.

 

I dont disagree, its just that he's terrible on the OF and his natural 3b position is blocked in STL. There might be a deal there under the right circumstances.

[connorp]

Jarren Duran should avoid yelling at fans - at least when he's on a live microphone

 

He may not have known sound would pick him up. Pretty sure he may have constrained himself from that otherwise. I guess nobody wants to use the excuse they didn’t mean it as an offensive term to LBTQ, but more like “pussy”. I guess that clarification wouldnt do you any good though.

[John_Havok]

Dodgers activated Betts, DFA Amed Rosario

[connorp]

Walker .343/.400/.687 with five home runs over his last 75 plate appearances, and the Cards have called him up and he's 7th in the order today.

 

I suspect the poor results in the early going, despite the batted ball improvements, was affecting him and the Cards sent him down to get him out of the pressure cooker.

 

Seems you’ve mushed Wander and now JRod. Who else got across the board like that? I forget.

[wilko]

Dodgers activated Betts, DFA Amed Rosario

 

Interesting move. Rosario's pretty good.

[John_Havok]

Interesting move. Rosario's pretty good.

 

hits lefties quite well, can play a few positions (not very well mind you). Also cheap as hell for the rest of the year. There's no real point in the jays claiming him though since they want to look at the kids.

[jaysblue]

He's IKF at $11.67M a year for the next 3 years.

 

Has IKF ever hit 24 HR's in a season or has he ever had multiple seasons of 2.5 WAR or better? Just asking.

 

IKF is at $7.5M whereas McMahon is at $11.67M (with a conditional opt-out after 2025 and 2026).

[Brownie19]

I dont disagree, its just that he's terrible on the OF and his natural 3b position is blocked in STL. There might be a deal there under the right circumstances.

 

I wonder if the lack of time spent at 3rd base over the last few years has hampered Walker's defensive abilities.

[wilko]

hits lefties quite well, can play a few positions (not very well mind you). Also cheap as hell for the rest of the year. There's no real point in the jays claiming him though since they want to look at kids.

 

[Brownie19]

Has IKF ever hit 24 HR's in a season or has he ever had multiple seasons of 2.5 WAR or better? Just asking.

 

IKF is at $7.5M whereas McMahon is at $11.67M (with a conditional opt-out after 2025 and 2026).

 

Sorry. IKF is 90-95% of McMahon. I'll be more accurate next time. Point is almost everyone hated the idea of giving IKF the starting job at 3rd base - both in terms of his ability/performance, the contract term (2 years) and the AAV ($7.5M). Accordingly, I don't see why anyone would want McMahon at a longer term (3 years) and 56% higher AAV. You can quote home runs all you want - but McMahon is awful at the plate. Tony Bautista hit lots of HRs and had lots of RBIs too - that never made him a good hitter.

[glory]

I dont disagree, its just that he's terrible on the OF and his natural 3b position is blocked in STL. There might be a deal there under the right circumstances.

 

Would love to see the Jays find a way to trade for Walker and put him back at 3B. He’s a horrid OF and the only other spot that might open up for him in STL is 1B with Goldschmidt a free agent. Maybe that’s their plan. I doubt the Cardinals would sell so low.

[Brownie19]

Would love to see the Jays find a way to trade for Walker and put him back at 3B. He’s a horrid OF and the only other spot that might open up for him in STL is 1B with Goldschmidt a free agent. Maybe that’s their plan. I doubt the Cardinals would sell so low.

 

I have to imagine this is the plan...