Around Baseball 2024

[Stangstag]

MLB jersey sales and merchandise are spread evenly throughout the league. C'mon dude's, it really doesn't matter.

 

Can’t believe we have to bring this up every time people talk about increased jersey sales

[Terminator]

[burlingtonbandit]

MLB jersey sales and merchandise are spread evenly throughout the league. C'mon dude's, it really doesn't matter.

 

Well I was talking about league wide how if MLB made a signing period late Nov/early Dec that there would be an increase in revenue with Christmas sales.

 

So in this case.. yeah I think it matters considering it would be 30 teams. I also think it would be smarter to release the schedule closer to the same time instead of doing it in August of the previous season (which I always found weird.

 

The NBA and NFL really hit on driving ticket sales/fan engagement with their schedule release dates only being a few months before the season starts.

[Spanky__99]

Well I was talking about league wide how if MLB made a signing period late Nov/early Dec that there would be an increase in revenue with Christmas sales.

 

So in this case.. yeah I think it matters considering it would be 30 teams. I also think it would be smarter to release the schedule closer to the same time instead of doing it in August of the previous season (which I always found weird.

 

The NBA and NFL really hit on driving ticket sales/fan engagement with their schedule release dates only being a few months before the season starts.

 

Okay.

[Stangstag]

 

Allegedly its 3/42

 

A bit too steep IMO

[BTS]

Allegedly its 3/42

 

A bit too steep IMO

 

Much prefer the 1-year deal for Turner

[L54]

One year of JT >> Three years of Soler

[L54]

Now we are getting spam in our inboxes here??

[BTS]

Now we are getting spam in our inboxes here??

 

It happens a couple times a year. If it's a different account than the one I deleted this morning, just report it and I'll nuke it.

[L54]

Haha okay, I’ve never gotten one before. Mine was from Mr. JeffereyDaype

[Laika]

 

Where is Scott Mitchell's apology?

[Brownie19]

Haha okay, I’ve never gotten one before. Mine was from Mr. JeffereyDaype

 

same.

[John_Havok]

Allegedly its 3/42

 

A bit too steep IMO

 

Soler was adamant about a third year, Giants were the only ones willing to add it on it looks like.

 

Pass on that though the AAV isn’t nutty or anything.

[L54]

same.

 

The AI is broken, I’m not sure bathroom renovations and baseball message boards are the perfect pair

[wilko]

No thanks to 3 years of Soler. 1 or 2 wouldn't be bad. Chances are 1.5 of those 3 years are going to be bad.

[Laika]

No thanks to 3 years of Soler. 1 or 2 wouldn't be bad. Chances are 1.5 of those 3 years are going to be bad.

 

SFG keeps f***ing around in the middle of the market. They hit a home run in 2022 with Rodon, and did well with Cobb, but last year it was flops all around.

 

2023

 

Conforto, 2/$36M, 1 WAR in 2023

Haniger, 3/$43.5M, 0 WAR in 2023

Stripling, 2/$25M, 0 WAR in 2023

Pederson, $19.7M QO, 0.6 WAR in 2023

Manaea, 1 WAR for $12.5M

Rogers, 3/$33M, 0.3 WAR

 

2024

 

Soler

Hicks

 

2022

 

Desclafani, 3/$36, 1 WAR in two years

Wood, 2/$25M, 1.9 WAR in two years

Rodon, 1/$21M, 6.2 WAR THIS ONE WORKED WOW

Cobb, 3/$28M, 3.7 WAR then 1.8 WAR THIS ONE WORKED TOO

[Laika]

Being a SFG fan would kind of blow right now. Their lineup is 2/3 platoons, they turn it over all the time, cobble the team together with 30+ year old vets every offseason and buy low signings, and their only "star" is a really boring 4 win groundball specialist in Logan Webb.

 

They are also arguably failing on the development side of things. Problems with many of their top prospects. Marco Luciano was supposed to be one of the next great shortstops...

[wilko]

SFG keeps f***ing around in the middle of the market. They hit a home run in 2022 with Rodon, and did well with Cobb, but last year it was flops all around.

 

2023

 

Conforto, 2/$36M, 1 WAR in 2023

Haniger, 3/$43.5M, 0 WAR in 2023

Stripling, 2/$25M, 0 WAR in 2023

Pederson, $19.7M QO, 0.6 WAR in 2023

Manaea, 1 WAR for $12.5M

Rogers, 3/$33M, 0.3 WAR

 

2024

 

Soler

Hicks

 

2022

 

Desclafani, 3/$36, 1 WAR in two years

Wood, 2/$25M, 1.9 WAR in two years

Rodon, 1/$21M, 6.2 WAR THIS ONE WORKED WOW

Cobb, 3/$28M, 3.7 WAR then 1.8 WAR THIS ONE WORKED TOO

 

That Rodon deal was lighting in a bottle. Cobb wasn't too bad either. The rest are meh.

[G-Snarls]

Allegedly its 3/42

 

A bit too steep IMO

 

Prefer our deal with Turner for 1 year for sure

[Jonn]

I didn't want Soler for 3 years and that was clear what he was holding out for. Obviously he could be very good for those 3 years but he has some extreme peaks and valleys in is career.

 

2-years would have been fine. I am happy with the Turner contract if they can get another Outfield bat.

[Jays24]

3/42 doesn't seem that bad at all. You usually have to overpay in free agency and this isn't really that for a 31 year old. He has been pretty damn good at the plate in his last 3 full seasons.

 

If he stays healthy, I prefer this to Turner's deal simply because of Turners age and lack of upside but it's extremely close. Not gonna cry about this and just hope we can somehow land one of Bellinger/Chapman on a good deal.

[RustyTrombone]

Pretty clear the Jays want to keep their options open for next winter and beyond. You sign up Soler for 3 years, Chap for 5 or 6, Belly for 7, those deals have the potential to cripple you with all the red flags for each player, less so for Soler cause the term wouldnt have been too crippling.

 

We probably could have done Soler for 3 but Atkins probably just viewed Turner as the better option especially at 1 year vs Soler at 3 yr. Turner gives you atleast some ability to play a position once in a while, Soler is f***ing brutal in the OF and is pretty much unplayable anywhere except for DH. Theres definite value in that helping Turners case. Combine that with the extreme volatility in Soler and it makes a easy choice imo to go with Turner who is as steady as it comes with the bat, even at 39 yo.

[John_Havok]

Pretty clear the Jays want to keep their options open for next winter and beyond. You sign up Soler for 3 years, Chap for 5 or 6, Belly for 7, those deals have the potential to cripple you with all the red flags for each player, less so for Soler cause the term wouldnt have been too crippling.

 

We probably could have done Soler for 3 but Atkins probably just viewed Turner as the better option especially at 1 year vs Soler at 3 yr. Turner gives you atleast some ability to play a position once in a while, Soler is f***ing brutal in the OF and is pretty much unplayable anywhere except for DH. Theres definite value in that helping Turners case. Combine that with the extreme volatility in Soler and it makes a easy choice imo to go with Turner who is as steady as it comes with the bat, even at 39 yo.

 

No doubt. If Soler was willing to signs a 2 year deal he would have already. I suspect he probably turned down 2 year deal with higher AAVs prior to getting his 3 year deal. Not significantly higher but 2/30 or 2/32 I could definitely believe to have been offered.

[Laika]

Pretty clear the Jays want to keep their options open for next winter and beyond. You sign up Soler for 3 years, Chap for 5 or 6, Belly for 7, those deals have the potential to cripple you with all the red flags for each player, less so for Soler cause the term wouldnt have been too crippling.

 

We probably could have done Soler for 3 but Atkins probably just viewed Turner as the better option especially at 1 year vs Soler at 3 yr. Turner gives you atleast some ability to play a position once in a while, Soler is f***ing brutal in the OF and is pretty much unplayable anywhere except for DH. Theres definite value in that helping Turners case. Combine that with the extreme volatility in Soler and it makes a easy choice imo to go with Turner who is as steady as it comes with the bat, even at 39 yo.

 

Yeah there is an obvious benefit to not going past 2 year commitments as the "Bo and Vlad" era potentially ends after 2025

 

Free money after 2025 = flexibility to pivot and sign a replacement star in free agency. Whoever that might be.

[Brownie19]

3/42 doesn't seem that bad at all. You usually have to overpay in free agency and this isn't really that for a 31 year old. He has been pretty damn good at the plate in his last 3 full seasons.

 

If he stays healthy, I prefer this to Turner's deal simply because of Turners age and lack of upside but it's extremely close. Not gonna cry about this and just hope we can somehow land one of Bellinger/Chapman on a good deal.

 

Well that isn't true at all. His wRC+ for 2021/2022 (combined) is <100. He was good with the bat last year, and in 2018/2019. Dude can't run or play any defense. He has to post a wRC+ >120 to be worth having on your team.

[John_Havok]

Yeah there is an obvious benefit to not going past 2 year commitments as the "Bo and Vlad" era potentially ends after 2025

 

Free money after 2025 = flexibility to pivot and sign a replacement star in free agency. Whoever that might be.

 

They could get a head start on it after this season with Bregman or Soto. Even signing one of those guys might entice one of Bo or Vlad to sign and extension.

 

Hypothetically....let's assume they sign Bregman to an 8 year deal and one of Bo or Vlad signs an extension. Does the other guy get traded with a full year left or do they roll the dice and take the 5th round comp pick or whatever garbo pick it would be since they'd very obviously be over the luxury tax.

 

Other notable FA targets that could be available assuming no extensions.... Burnes, Fried, Bieber, Scherzer, Woodruff, Goldschmidt, Alonso, Adames, Buehler, and Gerrit Cole if he opts out. Kim should also be an FA since he has a mutual option, but should definitely turn it down if he has another good year.

 

The following offseason isn’t as fun, Realmuto, Vlad, Bo, Gallen…some excellent relievers tho

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/baseball-s-next-free-agent-classes

Edited February 13, 2024 by John_Havok

[Jays24]

Well that isn't true at all. His wRC+ for 2021/2022 (combined) is <100. He was good with the bat last year, and in 2018/2019. Dude can't run or play any defense. He has to post a wRC+ >120 to be worth having on your team.

 

Ya I cherry picked by saying his last 3 full seasons and ignored his partial seasons in 2022 and 2020. Similar to the age 39 version of Turner, you can throw him in the field but won't like what you see there so both are technically full time DHs here.

[John_Havok]

One good thing the Jays have going for them, the only free agents after this season are Jansen, Richards, Yimi, Turner, KK and Kikuchi, all of whom would have many replacement options available.

 

That, couple with a ton of guys going into their last seasons before FA, they have all kinds of options available when it comes to hanging on to certain guys, trading, or completely nuking the roster and starting over

 

List of guys with 1 year left after 2024…Vlad, Bo, Bassitt, Green, IKF, Romano, Biggio, Mayza, Swanson, Cabrera.

Edited February 13, 2024 by John_Havok

[Terminator]

Assuming Soler would have signed with the Jays for 3 years and 42 mil I probably would have talked myself into it. But if we had the choice between Turner and Soler, I'd probably lean Turner at his price.

 

Turner can play 1B and can stand at 3B and 2B. The one year deal is nice. His consistency is excellent. He's old though.

 

Soler has huge power potential but he has less defensive utility and he's been very hit or miss. That hit or miss seems like an increasing risk as he enters his mid 30s. Fans tend to be more optimistic with their projections so the thought of plugging Soler in and getting 3 years of 35+ homers is tantalizing. But the reality is that he probably doesn't come anywhere close to that.

 

I also hate the idea of locking up this amount of money/years into a DH when good ones are available every year for 10 mil. Some years we may not even need a DH at which point that 14 mil could be spent elsewhere on a position of need.

[Jays24]

Assuming Soler would have signed with the Jays for 3 years and 42 mil I probably would have talked myself into it. But if we had the choice between Turner and Soler, I'd probably lean Turner at his price.

 

Turner can play 1B and can stand at 3B and 2B. The one year deal is nice. His consistency is excellent. He's old though.

 

Soler has huge power potential but he has less defensive utility and he's been very hit or miss. That hit or miss seems like an increasing risk as he enters his mid 30s. Fans tend to be more optimistic with their projections so the thought of plugging Soler in and getting 3 years of 35+ homers is tantalizing. But the reality is that he probably doesn't come anywhere close to that.

 

I also hate the idea of locking up this amount of money/years into a DH when good ones are available every year for 10 mil. Some years we may not even need a DH at which point that 14 mil could be spent elsewhere on a position of need.

 

J.D. Martinez was my number 1 DH target simply because I thought a big 1 year deal was enough for him. Soler even with this contract was my number 2 choice but the difference isn't making or breaking the season.

 

Turner does offer more positional flexibility than J.D. does so that's something but I cared mostly about getting the biggest bats possible for this lineup. Getting one of Chapman/Bellinger on a reasonable deal can still salvage this offseason.