Around Baseball 2024

[Laika]

I think the biggest difference between what they are and what everyone thought they could be as that Vlad was supposed to be right-handed Yordan Alvarez but instead is CJ Cron.

 

I lose sleep over this player

 

0 war, 0 war, 6 war, 3 war, 1 war

 

+ mostly bad anecdotes on top of the production, like horrible baserunning and pickoffs

 

Why couldn't he have just been f***ing Pete Alonso? 3-4 WAR a year. Alonso has the same pop but at least two letter grades worse on the hit tool.

 

Vlad would be a bitter hitter if he was a worse "hitter" and it is so f***ing annoying lmao.

Edited February 5, 2024 by Laika

[Spanky__99]

This the goof that messed with a bunch of gullible fans and heavily implied that a Soler signing was imminent?

 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Stangstag]

I lose sleep over this player

 

0 war, 0 war, 6 war, 3 war, 1 war

 

+ mostly bad anecdotes on top of the production, like horrible baserunning and pickoffs

 

+ everyone still acts like he’s some generational talent. Including he himself.

[BTS]

+ everyone still acts like he’s some generational talent. Including he himself.

 

Legit annoys me that he got the MLB The Show cover. Last thing his ego needs is more superstar treatment

[max silver]

+ everyone still acts like he’s some generational talent. Including he himself.

 

The guy still has generational natural talent but it's up to Vlad and the coaching staff to determine how to fully unlock the talent to produce more consistent results. It appears as though his wrist and knees have caused issues at times so hopefully he can alleviate some of this with his offseason training.

[Laika]

The guy still has generational natural talent but it's up to Vlad and the coaching staff to determine how to fully unlock the talent to produce more consistent results. It appears as though his wrist and knees have caused issues at times so hopefully he can alleviate some of this with his offseason training.

 

I don't think we can really say this anymore. He's got elite physical tools, but it's not 80 hit 80 power like some people were dreaming about.

 

Might be fringe 80 raw power (there are some guys who can hit higher maxEVs or avgEVs...) but the hit tool is clearly lower. Probably a 60? A true 70 hitter with pop does not get exploited like Vlad can get exploited. Mookie Betts doesn't have flaws and slumps like him.

[L54]

There is upside to having a defender who can defend, especially when you are going to rely on defense and pitching to win enough games to make the post season unless some of the big bats come back to life in 2024

 

Not really, what you’ve just described is the definition of hedging your bets

[L54]

My guess is IKF doesn't start many games and they use him as a defender late in games with leads. Have Schneider start at 2nd and remove him late in games to have the upgrade in defense. Biggio likely starts at 3B vs RHP if he looks more like the guy at the end of last season.

 

My guess is he is the opening day third baseman and starts 100 games there

[L54]

At he’s going to be 29, and considering his career, that’s his absolute ceiling. The BAT, who I have previously always said I like the best, and Laila told me one time it showed favorably to some of the others, has him at .3 to .5 WAR for the season over 340 ABs. With a .620 OPS or whatever, that’ll be somewhere close to PA’s he’ll likely see if there’s not injuries elsewhere as they’ll look to shake things up in the lineup I’d imagine. We’ll see

 

Now the fanboys are going to come tell you those projections are light because the Yankees played him in the OF last year and really they should be closer to 0.7 to 0.9

[connorp]

Now the fanboys are going to come tell you those projections are light because the Yankees played him in the OF last year and really they should be closer to 0.7 to 0.9

 

Whatever. Projection is projection. Anything under 1 WAR you should just play your kids and see if something works

[Laika]

You can tell from the contract that the Jays internal projections for IKF must be a bit higher than those on Fangraphs, but they don't have to be much higher.

 

Atkins just got scared of the worst case Ontario at 3B and bought floor. Then got conned into giving the floor player a second year.

[connorp]

I don't think we can really say this anymore. He's got elite physical tools, but it's not 80 hit 80 power like some people were dreaming about.

 

Might be fringe 80 raw power (there are some guys who can hit higher maxEVs or avgEVs...) but the hit tool is clearly lower. Probably a 60? A true 70 hitter with pop does not get exploited like Vlad can get exploited. Mookie Betts doesn't have flaws and slumps like him.

 

60/70 is still pretty much generational. If a guy can hit .290/40hr, that’s HOF stuff if consistent, or close to it

[BTS]

60/70 is still pretty much generational. If a guy can hit .290/40hr, that’s HOF stuff if consistent, or close to it

 

It might be 70 raw, but he's not getting to that in games. He's like 60-60, with every other part of his game dragging value down from there.

[connorp]

It might be 70 raw, but he's not getting to that in games. He's like 60-60, with every other part of his game dragging value down from there.

 

Well, I mean he got to that. Harper kind of had similar start to his career with the big year around some above average ones first 5 years. If I remember right.

Idk. This year will be telling. Said that last year though

[L54]

You can tell from the contract that the Jays internal projections for IKF must be a bit higher than those on Fangraphs, but they don't have to be much higher.

 

Atkins just got scared of the worst case Ontario at 3B and bought floor. Then got conned into giving the floor player a second year.

 

The second year is the kicker

[Laika]

60/70 is still pretty much generational. If a guy can hit .290/40hr, that’s HOF stuff if consistent, or close to it

 

It's semantics but "generational" to me means just that - once in a generation. Maybe some career overlap with another unicorn.

 

Mike Trout was a generational total package

Ohtani is a generational talent

 

You can argue that Pujols and Miggy were generational hit+power combinations. That's what people thought Vlad could be!

 

It's not in there. Nope.

[max silver]

I don't think we can really say this anymore. He's got elite physical tools, but it's not 80 hit 80 power like some people were dreaming about.

 

Might be fringe 80 raw power (there are some guys who can hit higher maxEVs or avgEVs...) but the hit tool is clearly lower. Probably a 60? A true 70 hitter with pop does not get exploited like Vlad can get exploited. Mookie Betts doesn't have flaws and slumps like him.

 

I think Vlad's wrist had a sizeable effect on his overall results last season. He was on fire for the first 5-6 weeks before the wrist issue popped up and the results from that point forward took a nosedive. He very well may have some mechanical issues that require ironing out but I think the talent still remains for consistent 140-150 wRC+ seasons.

 

It's interesting that you mention Mookie Betts as a comparable player. We can directly compare their early career numbers.

 

Betts

Age/wRC+/Comparison to Vlad at same age

21 129 +19

22 120 -46

23 136 +3

24 107 -11

 

Vlad

Age/wRC+/Comparison to Betts at same age

21 110 -19

22 166 +46

23 133 -3

24 118 +11

 

Vlad's numbers up to his age 24 season compare very nicely to Bett's early career numbers. Betts obviously had the sizeable overall value advantage due to the elite defensive and baserunning contributions but offensively Vlad has held up nicely in this comparison in his early career. Betts exploded for a career best 185 wRC+ in his age 25 season so Vlad is certainly going to be hard pressed to keep up at this point.

Edited February 5, 2024 by max silver

[glory]

My guess is he is the opening day third baseman and starts 100 games there

 

Yeah giving him 2/15 definitely feels like they value him higher than FG projections/WAR. You don’t give that contract to someone you plan to use sparingly. I think absolute best case scenario is that they signed him to start at 3B but would move him into a super utility role if a prospect beat him out, but I’m not convinced that this FO is going to trust Orelvis or Barger to handle 3B right out of the gate. IKF will hold fort down for at least a couple of months.

[connorp]

It's semantics but "generational" to me means just that - once in a generation. Maybe some career overlap with another unicorn.

 

Mike Trout was a generational total package

Ohtani is a generational talent

 

You can argue that Pujols and Miggy were generational hit+power combinations. That's what people thought Vlad could be!

 

It's not in there. Nope.

 

Yeah, semantics. I would label Bryce Harper generational. Exciting player, one of faces of bb, no doubt HOF

[connorp]

In basketball it’s like you got LebRon, Curry, Durant, Harden (almost)

I think they should all be labeled generational

[connorp]

Actually even Joker. Could probably think of others like Embiid. Really waters down the word I guess

 

But Durant/LeBron/Curry can’t just be just stars. Idk

[Laika]

Yeah, semantics. I would label Bryce Harper generational. Exciting player, one of faces of bb, no doubt HOF

 

He was definitely a "generational prospect" and is a HOF but I would say that his MLB career hasn't been quite as phenomenal as some people hoped.

[Brownie19]

Yeah, semantics. I would label Bryce Harper generational. Exciting player, one of faces of bb, no doubt HOF

 

Interesting debate. When people say "generational player" does that mean he'll be the best player drafted by a particular team "in this generation"? or are we talking about the best 4-5 players in all of MLB within "a generation"?

 

Personally, I'm not sure I consider Harper to be a generational player - or even a no doubt HOFer at this point (although I more than likely he will get in). Harper certainly entered the league with a lot of fanfare and had a massive 2015. He's a great hitter - but I look at someone like Chase Utley and he may not even make the HOF, let alone be considered a generational talent. Utley had 5 straight seasons over 7.2 WAR. Harper has 1 in his career.

 

I never considered guys like Jeff Bagwell, Sheffield, Votto or Edgar Martinez to be generational players - yet they'll all probably end up with much higher career wRC+ numbers than Harper (and some will have more career WAR).

 

When I think of generational players, I think of Trout, Pujols, Griffey Jr., A-rod. And if we're talking just bats, guys like Frank Thomas and Manny. Even current players like Judge and Yordan are way ahead of Harper with the bat IMO. Great player, probably a future HOFer, but not generational IMO.

[Orgfiller]

Yeah, semantics. I would label Bryce Harper generational. Exciting player, one of faces of bb, no doubt HOF

 

I don't think every HOF is generational. Harper was a generational prospect but ended up being "merely" really good, and if he retired tomorrow he wouldn't sniff the HOF having completed his age 30 season. Mookie Betts is a lot closer to that label, as at the same age he has 11 more fWAR and has just about put himself as a lock. Even him I'm skeptical of placing that label on, since actual generational players like Trout, Pujols are Ohtani are leaps ahead. On the pitching side, generational is like Kershaw and Verlander, maybe Scherzer. Someone like deGrom is a unicorn and could have been generational but missed out on the health portion to be worthy of the title.

[Brownie19]

Actually even Joker. Could probably think of others like Embiid. Really waters down the word I guess

 

But Durant/LeBron/Curry can’t just be just stars. Idk

 

100% those 3 are generational. I don't put Harden on that pedestal, but I think Joker is right there. Emiid needs more seasons. Westbrook is close (like Harden)

[BTS]

When I think of generational talents over the last 25 years I think Trout, Ohtani, Pujols, Kershaw, and DeGrom. DeGrom might not even make the HoF. But when he was healthy he was the most dominant pitcher I've ever seen.

[Brownie19]

When I think of generational talents over the last 25 years I think Trout, Ohtani, Pujols, Kershaw, and DeGrom. DeGrom might not even make the HoF. But when he was healthy he was the most dominant pitcher I've ever seen.

 

I'm curious how you're leaving Griffey and A-Rod off this list. A-Rod had 6 seasons over 9 WAR.

[deanmike]

[Krylian]

I'm curious how you're leaving Griffey and A-Rod off this list. A-Rod had 6 seasons over 9 WAR.

 

Bonds

[BTS]

I'm curious how you're leaving Griffey and A-Rod off this list. A-Rod had 6 seasons over 9 WAR.

 

A-Rod is a good one. I never really had a chance to appreciate good Griffey. He was traded to Cincinnati right around the time I started really following baseball, and I probably didn't see more than a couple games with him as a Mariner. Kind of seems like the previous generation's version of a generational player