General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Terminator]

His last 3.5 months have seen the results line up much more closely with the expected stats so hopefully this is something that can carry forward. Springer has posted a .334 wOBA vs .347 xwOBA (-0.013) in this period after May 26, as compared to .243 wOBA/.300 xwOBA (-0.057) until May 25.

 

Geez so when he looked like the worst player on the planet he was underperforming his xstats by nearly 60 points!

 

.300 xwOBA isn't good but it's probably about 28th percentile, not 1st percentile.

[Laika]

I dunno dudes

 

A geezer underperforms his xStats for 1250 plate appearances consecutively...

 

... you sure it's just luck?

 

you sure about that?

[Terminator]

What else would it be?

[wilko]

What else would it be?

 

The Cabal.

[Laika]

What else would it be?

 

- old age

- league has a book on him 1500 pages long

- weak muscles

- forgot how to aim his line drives

- cobwebs

- karma

- bad juju

- rheumatoid arthritis

- alzheimer's

- just doesn't have it

- Cialis side effect

- God's plan

[max silver]

I dunno dudes

 

A geezer underperforms his xStats for 1250 plate appearances consecutively...

 

... you sure it's just luck?

 

you sure about that?

 

It's certainly not all bad luck as his quality of contact metrics were basically Santiago Espinal level for the first few months. He's swinging harder (up nearly a full MPH) and barreling up the baseball at rates approaching triple the early season results so it appears as though some mechanical adjustments have unlocked a bit more power.

[Terminator]

It's certainly not all bad luck as his quality of contact metrics were basically Santiago Espinal level for the first few months. He's swinging harder (up nearly a full MPH) and barreling up the baseball at rates approaching triple the early season results so it appears as though some mechanical adjustments have unlocked a bit more power.

 

His quality of contact metrics should affect his xwOBA just as much as his wOBA though right? So I don't think that necessarily explains the discrepancies.

 

There could be some reason but I really don't know what it could be so I think it's safer to assume that it's just bad luck as much as anything else.

 

Remember, Vlad looked like a 1 WAR pumpkin for about 900 ABs and the reasoning that the board bought into (except for me, Spanky and Tom Tango that is) was that he wasn't aiming his deep fly balls enough. Tango said that kind of stuff is usually just noise on the whole and sure enough, he was right.

 

Now I still worry about Springer, he's old so he could decline pretty drastically any time now and could actually turn into a true talent .300 wOBA guy. But even those concerns are a little overblown, he still projects well.

[jaysblue]

Hah!

 

Typical one word response from you lol.

[jaysblue]

Also not the worst

 

Some of these guys are good for like one season and then then into 0 WAR pumpkins

 

At least Springer still does... some stuff

 

Did I say anything about Springer's deal being the worst?

 

Springer still can be a contributor, but at the end of the day he's an aging player on an expensive contract and eating $25M of the payroll every season for the next two years. So yeah I'm not giving Ross Atkins a free pass here.

[jaysblue]

That’s the risk with signing literally every FA

 

Yeah obviously.

 

Ideally you hope you can get a player performing at a high level for about 60% of their contract when you sign someone to a big deal. 2 good seasons of 6 years is meh.

[jaysblue]

I think the best the team can likely hope for is for one or more of the young outfielders to force Springer into more of a 4th outfielder type of role. I haven't completely given up hope on George returning to slightly above league average type of production over a full season as he's still capable of little mini hot streaks where he hits a pile of home runs in a week or two, but he's also capable of really deep slumps for months on end as well. As an example of this he hit a terrible slump in July of last year, and started the 2024 season in a rut as well leading to a 110 game stretch where he was a 77 wRC+ replacement level type of player.

 

Yeah the Jays really don't have a choice, so hope that Springer can maybe find some magic in one of the last years of his contract here. Otherwise, like you said maybe a young OF pushes him into a 4th outfielder role at some point. I would hope he's moved down in the order at the beginning of 2025. You can't have Springer hitting in the top half of the lineup anymore if this team expects to contend.

[jaysblue]

No idea how this will all play out. However, Springer made some pretty tangible changes in his approach mid-season and went on a big time tear after that. He's cooled off, but he certainly started to let it loose more at the plate. Hopefully, that was just a mindset change and something he can simply do and carry forward.

 

Is there a possibility he's been holding back to prevent oblique injuries or something and finally just said "f*** it - this isn't working" and went back to max bat speed?

 

Springer remains one of my favourite players in the league. He appears to be a great teammate and a better person. I do hope he finds the right adjustment to give us a couple of 2-3 WAR seasons to finish off his contract. I'd hate to see him nosedive and for fans to turn on him.

 

Which fans are turning on him?

 

Reality is, he wasn't that great of a signing by Atkins. Stop sugar coating it, making it sound like he's such a great teammate and great person, so therefore Atkins gets a free pass for spending $150M on him.

 

I love Springer's hustle and style as well. He's definitely a likeable guy and an easy player to root for. I hope he can return to being a 2-3 WAR player in 2025 and 2026 which helps the Jays greatly if they want to contend those seasons. There is nothing wrong however in stating that his signing hasn't been a great one by this front office.

[Omar]

What else would it be?

 

Uncrustables. Lots and lots of Uncrustables.

[metafour]

Which fans are turning on him?

 

Reality is, he wasn't that great of a signing by Atkins. Stop sugar coating it, making it sound like he's such a great teammate and great person, so therefore Atkins gets a free pass for spending $150M on him.

 

I love Springer's hustle and style as well. He's definitely a likeable guy and an easy player to root for. I hope he can return to being a 2-3 WAR player in 2025 and 2026 which helps the Jays greatly if they want to contend those seasons. There is nothing wrong however in stating that his signing hasn't been a great one by this front office.

 

I agree - a better GM never would have signed him. What were they thinking?

[BatFlip]

- old age

- league has a book on him 1500 pages long

- weak muscles

- forgot how to aim his line drives

- cobwebs

- karma

- bad juju

- rheumatoid arthritis

- alzheimer's

- just doesn't have it

- Cialis side effect

- God's plan

 

I loled at God's plan. Very comprehensive.

[L54]

Yeah obviously.

 

Ideally you hope you can get a player performing at a high level for about 60% of their contract when you sign someone to a big deal. 2 good seasons of 6 years is meh.

 

Ya but who cares? It’s the risk you run. Sure you can sit back now in 2024 and say it wasn’t an A+ deal while ignoring that George Springer was a huge acquisition that signaled the Jays were pushing themselves into contention mode around Bo and Vlad

 

I don’t think anybody would’ve thought his aging curve would look like this

 

2.6 WAR (covid)

4.1

1.8

1.6

1.5

1.5

 

Even a more conservativ view probably looked like

 

3

4

3

2.5

2

1.5

[WryNGinger]

This season was pretty much a s*** show but the weirdest part of all of this is that JOEY VOTTO spent most of the season in the Jay's minor league system.

 

Dafuq? Every time I read about my brain hurt...

[Joltin Joe]

Lukes and Loperfido whoever has best spring training next year is 4th outfielder. Other guy starts in AAA. Get a few at bats and gives team depth.

 

Both left handed bats, like 5th outfielder be right-handed bat.

[BigCecil]

This will be the 2017 Jays.

 

Lots of people were apprehensive after the 2016 season... Others didn't want to believe it or couldn't see it. But let's wait and see (even though some of us don't need to).

 

Krylian Nostradamus post ^ from April 4th this '24 season.

 

Pretty funny to read back ITT the hopium being smoked by many at that time (not that authentic optimism is a bad thing - others just shilled for this FO).

 

After a couple wins, the '24 Jays are pretty much on the 76 win pace of the 2017 team. The O's won 75 that season.

 

I thought 81 wins was about as likely as 85 - but I honestly didn't think it would be this rough of a '24. I'm sure as hell not enthused about rolling it back in '25.

[L54]

Krylian Nostradamus post ^ from April 4th this '24 season.

 

Pretty funny to read back ITT the hopium being smoked by many at that time (not that authentic optimism is a bad thing - others just shilled for this FO).

 

After a couple wins, the '24 Jays are pretty much on the 76 win pace of the 2017 team. The O's won 75 that season.

 

I thought 81 wins was about as likely as 85 - but I honestly didn't think it would be this rough of a '24. I'm sure as hell not enthused about rolling it back in '25.

 

Vlad sucks!

 

Thank goodness for Varsho and IKF, Atkins is the master

[connorp]

Jansen really torched any chance he had at a good contract. I guess one year deal somewhere he gets playing time in best. 1/5 maybe?

[Stangstag]

Jansen really torched any chance he had at a good contract. I guess one year deal somewhere he gets playing time in best. 1/5 maybe?

 

Feels like a Rays-ish signing.

[Brownie19]

Which fans are turning on him?

 

Reality is, he wasn't that great of a signing by Atkins. Stop sugar coating it, making it sound like he's such a great teammate and great person, so therefore Atkins gets a free pass for spending $150M on him.

 

I love Springer's hustle and style as well. He's definitely a likeable guy and an easy player to root for. I hope he can return to being a 2-3 WAR player in 2025 and 2026 which helps the Jays greatly if they want to contend those seasons. There is nothing wrong however in stating that his signing hasn't been a great one by this front office.

 

I'm confused. First, I suggested "I'd hate to see him nosedive and for fans to turn on him". I didn't suggest that's happened already.

 

Second - nothing I said had anything to do with whether he was a good FA signing or not. He's one of my all-time fav players. Are you OK?

[Barrelsandbombs]

Bowden Francis is probably wondering why Serven was the catcher who got DFA instead of Nick Raposo.

 

[wilko]

Uh oh. Francis is going from #1 to fringe #5.

[Omar]

Uh oh. Francis is going from #1 to fringe #5.

 

Buck saw Serven catching on one knee and now he gets dfa'd. Don't fvck with Buck.

[connorp]

I'm confused. First, I suggested "I'd hate to see him nosedive and for fans to turn on him". I didn't suggest that's happened already.

 

Second - nothing I said had anything to do with whether he was a good FA signing or not. He's one of my all-time fav players. Are you OK?

 

Do you have a thing for playing the victim, or just here?

I’m the only real victim here and I choose to take it in stride

[John_Havok]

Do you have a thing for playing the victim, or just here?

I’m the only real victim here and I choose to take it in stride

 

Yeah but for you it's not a choice really. It's just what is.

[John_Havok]

Yerry Rodriguez went unclaimed so has been outrighted to AAA

[Barrelsandbombs]

Jays claim RP Nick Robertson