General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[John_Havok]

He has a 126 wRC+ in his last 263 PA since he went from holding the bat perpendicularly to his spine to holding the bat parallel to his spine.

 

 

Sure... but he'll also have another year of age next season. Mechanical tweaks will help in the short term, but its not really reasonable to expect a 126 wRC+ from him next season. His career slash is 127 and not many guys are hitting their career average when they're 35. Maybe my 95-100 was a bit harsh, but I certainly wouldn't be projecting 115-120 either. It sure would be nice though.

 

In his favour, walk rates and K rates are in line with norms, so he's not really losing bat-to-ball or his pitch recognition. BAserunning is still top shelf. Defense, while lower this season still passes the eye test and his deficiencies are arm related rather than being Teoscar-esque, so that's something that can be expected to bounce back next year to be at least average to slightly above.

 

Not in his favour, power #'s are trending down. Likely in large part to his disastrous launch angle. 6th percentile this year and a steady decline since 2021. 80th percentile, to 29th percentile in 2022, 26th in 20223, to 6th this season. Average exit velo is another steady downward trend.

 

He'll be on the roster next season for sure unless Atkins pulls a rabbit out of his ass, but there's truly not much to expect significant contributions from him in 2025 and 2026. Still a useful player, but in the 2-2.5 fWAR area tops. Probably shouldn't be leading off anymore unless he's in the middle of a heater.

Edited September 12, 2024 by John_Havok

[glory]

what are you guys smoking

 

he had a 104 wRC+ last year and has a 97 wRC+ this season. That is across over 1200 PA.

 

he turns thirty-f***ing-five in 7 days

 

I would love for him to be 18% better than league average with the stick but that doesn't strike me as at all likely

 

Yeah I think he's a league average bat at best at this point. Probably looking at a 1-1.5 WAR player next season, give or take, and that's assuming his bat doesn't decline any further.

 

Are there any players on other teams with equally s***** contracts that Springer could be traded for? That might be the move to make at this point.

[John_Havok]

Yeah I think he's a league average bat at best at this point. Probably looking at a 1-1.5 WAR player next season, give or take, and that's assuming his bat doesn't decline any further.

 

Are there any players on other teams with equally s***** contracts that Springer could be traded for? That might be the move to make at this point.

 

Maybe a bit low on the war side, his D and baserunning are still good. I figure 2-2.5. He's far more likely to be league average than Giancarlo Stanton for example, also heading into his 35 season next year.

[glory]

Maybe a bit low on the war side, his D and baserunning are still good. I figure 2-2.5. He's far more likely to be league average than Giancarlo Stanton for example, also heading into his 35 season next year.

 

He had a 1.8 WAR in 683 PA in 2023, and 1.4 WAR in 567 PA so far this season. Not sure I'd have him at 2-2.5 next season, unless he has an offensive resurgence. Since the start of last season, he has a 101 wRC+ in 1250 plate appearances. I wouldn't go into 2025 expecting much better than that, though if he's still the starting RF then hopefully he has a bounce back in him.

[Laika]

He's also an injury risk because of the age

 

Butter him up because He's Toast!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[wilko]

He's also an injury risk because of the age

 

Butter him up because He's Toast!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Terminator]

HOT NEW TORONTO BLUE JAYS WAIVER CLAIM RELIEVER!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Brett de Geus

 

Good to see them trying out new guys as the year ends. Not seeing many positives with de Geus though the team probably has their reasons for giving him a shot. His velo is decent, he can get ground balls and he has 2 options after this year.

 

Almost looks like a Zach Pop clone though which means he suxxx.

[Terminator]

Springer's xWOBA is holding strong at .331 (.332 last year). His defense and sprint speed are better than last year too and he's still projecting pretty well.

 

He just needs to not get boned on the stats vs. his xstats next year and he should be an average regular.

 

But he's old so he could fall off a cliff any year now but with just two more years left on his deal this could end up okay. It doesn't look great but you kind of expect year 5 and 6 of a FA deal to not be so great.

[max silver]

Springer's xWOBA is holding strong at .331 (.332 last year). His defense and sprint speed are better than last year too and he's still projecting pretty well.

 

He just needs to not get boned on the stats vs. his xstats next year and he should be an average regular.

 

But he's old so he could fall off a cliff any year now but with just two more years left on his deal this could end up okay. It doesn't look great but you kind of expect year 5 and 6 of a FA deal to not be so great.

 

It's a damn shame that Springer finally managed to stay on the field the same year he stopped being an impact player.

[Spanky99]

It's a damn shame that Springer finally managed to stay on the field the same year he stopped being an impact player.

 

It does suck, but we did know the decline was coming, Steamer600 has him as a 2.3 win player next year, not as bad as the hound is thinking.

[Stangstag]

He's also an injury risk because of the age

 

Butter him up because He's Toast!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Yeah it’s ironic that now he sucks he’s been completely healthy for 2 full seasons.

 

We needed a healthy Springer when he was still a beast in 2021/2022.

 

The team would likely benefit from Springer being injured at this point.

[Stangstag]

It's a damn shame that Springer finally managed to stay on the field the same year he stopped being an impact player.

 

Yeah sad

[jaysblue]

Are there any players on other teams with equally s***** contracts that Springer could be traded for? That might be the move to make at this point.

 

That's pretty much the only move for Springer at this point. The Jays have two more seasons of him, so let's hope maybe he has a rejuvenated season offensively where he can provide 2 WAR.

 

Tough to come up with a list of trade partners given his regression, age and contract. As well, that team would need an outfielder.

 

Nolan Arenado perhaps, but doubt the Cards move him straight up for Springer. Would be nice since he would fill in the void at 3B and has posted a 2.8 WAR season thus far. He's under contract until 2027, so an extra year longer than Springer.

 

Trevor Story, but the dude is made of glass and under control until 2028. Plus the Red Sox outfield looks crowded as is. Would rather have Springer for the two remaining years instead of 4 years of Story anyways.

 

As for pitchers, not many that I could think of. Robbie Ray would be interesting (has an opt-out after 2024 but doubt he uses it). $24.33M AAV over the next two seasons, so identical to Springer. Not sure if the Giants want a veteran OF bat however. Yu Darvish is under control until 2028 with an AAV of $18M, though again not sure if the Padres need another OF.

[jaysblue]

Springer's xWOBA is holding strong at .331 (.332 last year). His defense and sprint speed are better than last year too and he's still projecting pretty well.

 

He just needs to not get boned on the stats vs. his xstats next year and he should be an average regular.

 

But he's old so he could fall off a cliff any year now but with just two more years left on his deal this could end up okay. It doesn't look great but you kind of expect year 5 and 6 of a FA deal to not be so great.

 

The issue is only Year One and Two of his FA deal were great. Year Three and Four haven't and there is little hope Year Five and Six will be either.

 

So only TWO out of SIX years. Not the greatest FA signing by Atkins.

[L54]

The issue is only Year One and Two of his FA deal were great. Year Three and Four haven't and there is little hope Year Five and Six will be either.

 

So only TWO out of SIX years. Not the greatest FA signing by Atkins.

 

That’s the risk with signing literally every FA

[Laika]

The issue is only Year One and Two of his FA deal were great. Year Three and Four haven't and there is little hope Year Five and Six will be either.

 

So only TWO out of SIX years. Not the greatest FA signing by Atkins.

 

Also not the worst

 

Some of these guys are good for like one season and then then into 0 WAR pumpkins

 

At least Springer still does... some stuff

[Laika]

The issue is only Year One and Two of his FA deal were great. Year Three and Four haven't and there is little hope Year Five and Six will be either.

 

So only TWO out of SIX years. Not the greatest FA signing by Atkins.

 

Also not the worst

 

Some of these guys are good for like one season and then then into 0 WAR pumpkins

 

At least Springer still does... some stuff

[max silver]

The issue is only Year One and Two of his FA deal were great. Year Three and Four haven't and there is little hope Year Five and Six will be either.

 

So only TWO out of SIX years. Not the greatest FA signing by Atkins.

 

I think the best the team can likely hope for is for one or more of the young outfielders to force Springer into more of a 4th outfielder type of role. I haven't completely given up hope on George returning to slightly above league average type of production over a full season as he's still capable of little mini hot streaks where he hits a pile of home runs in a week or two, but he's also capable of really deep slumps for months on end as well. As an example of this he hit a terrible slump in July of last year, and started the 2024 season in a rut as well leading to a 110 game stretch where he was a 77 wRC+ replacement level type of player.

[Spanky99]

The issue is only Year One and Two of his FA deal were great. Year Three and Four haven't and there is little hope Year Five and Six will be either.

 

So only TWO out of SIX years. Not the greatest FA signing by Atkins.

 

Hah!

[Laika]

Springer ages 26-32 (2016 to 2022)

 

.271/.358/.500

10.8% BB

20.0% K

.203 ISO

+3.7 BsR

+4.3 SPD score

45 SB in 826 games

-22.1 Def (talent + position adjustment)

42.7% Pull

35.8% hard hit (not statcast)

36.1% FB

45.1% GB

89.1 mph EV

116.4 maxEV

10.2% barrel

 

Springer ages 33-34 (2023-2024)

 

.241/.318/.393

9.3% BB

18.6% K

.152 ISO

+2.6 BsR

+5.0 SPD score

34 SB in 288 games

-14.6 Def (talent + position adjustment)

40% Pull

32.7% hard hit (not statcast)

34.1% FB

47.2% GB

88.1 mph EV

115.9 maxEV

8.4% barrel

 

 

There are some weird trends there. The decline in raw power is expected, but why are the speed components of his game ticking up? Is he trying to cope with the change in his skills and provide value in other ways? It seems like there is an associated approach change and he is hitting the ball up the middle and on the ground more often. I wonder if this is sort of intentional or just a side effect of less bat speed. It would be frustrating to find out he is trying to defy the aging curve by slapping the ball around more and doing sprints all offseason so he can steal more bases...

 

Like, a power hitter who is a .271/.358/.500 dude, who declines a bit, you would expect to maybe walk just as much or MORE as an old man but just hit for a lower average and with a bit less pop. Like Carlos Santana, who was .259/.366/.498 at age 30 and .240/.318/.429 at f***ing 37 years old. That's less hits but still a .189 ISO. Corner outfield guy like George, you kind of want him to age into a DH who can still do damage, right?

 

George's power has declined more than it should have. There is a way out of this, and it's pretty simple, he needs to just find his old batted ball profile and pull it in the air a bit more. He won't do that and hit .271 anymore because that level of skill is gone, but can probably hit .230/.320/.430 or so instead of the not impactful .241/.318/.393 (101 wRC+) line he has provided in the last two years. Not a huge bump but that might be a 110 wRC+ or so. Which would be fine.

[Brownie19]

No idea how this will all play out. However, Springer made some pretty tangible changes in his approach mid-season and went on a big time tear after that. He's cooled off, but he certainly started to let it loose more at the plate. Hopefully, that was just a mindset change and something he can simply do and carry forward.

 

Is there a possibility he's been holding back to prevent oblique injuries or something and finally just said "f*** it - this isn't working" and went back to max bat speed?

 

Springer remains one of my favourite players in the league. He appears to be a great teammate and a better person. I do hope he finds the right adjustment to give us a couple of 2-3 WAR seasons to finish off his contract. I'd hate to see him nosedive and for fans to turn on him.

[L54]

No idea how this will all play out. However, Springer made some pretty tangible changes in his approach mid-season and went on a big time tear after that. He's cooled off, but he certainly started to let it loose more at the plate. Hopefully, that was just a mindset change and something he can simply do and carry forward.

 

Is there a possibility he's been holding back to prevent oblique injuries or something and finally just said "f*** it - this isn't working" and went back to max bat speed?

 

Springer remains one of my favourite players in the league. He appears to be a great teammate and a better person. I do hope he finds the right adjustment to give us a couple of 2-3 WAR seasons to finish off his contract. I'd hate to see him nosedive and for fans to turn on him.

 

He is definitely one of the most likeable guys in the league I agree. Great teammate and a guy I don’t think many would have a negative thing to say about

[G-Snarls]

He is definitely one of the most likeable guys in the league I agree. Great teammate and a guy I don’t think many would have a negative thing to say about

 

100%. Plays his ass off too.

[wilko]

Springer ages 26-32 (2016 to 2022)

 

.271/.358/.500

10.8% BB

20.0% K

.203 ISO

+3.7 BsR

+4.3 SPD score

45 SB in 826 games

-22.1 Def (talent + position adjustment)

42.7% Pull

35.8% hard hit (not statcast)

36.1% FB

45.1% GB

89.1 mph EV

116.4 maxEV

10.2% barrel

 

Springer ages 33-34 (2023-2024)

 

.241/.318/.393

9.3% BB

18.6% K

.152 ISO

+2.6 BsR

+5.0 SPD score

34 SB in 288 games

-14.6 Def (talent + position adjustment)

40% Pull

32.7% hard hit (not statcast)

34.1% FB

47.2% GB

88.1 mph EV

115.9 maxEV

8.4% barrel

 

 

There are some weird trends there. The decline in raw power is expected, but why are the speed components of his game ticking up? Is he trying to cope with the change in his skills and provide value in other ways? It seems like there is an associated approach change and he is hitting the ball up the middle and on the ground more often. I wonder if this is sort of intentional or just a side effect of less bat speed. It would be frustrating to find out he is trying to defy the aging curve by slapping the ball around more and doing sprints all offseason so he can steal more bases...

 

Like, a power hitter who is a .271/.358/.500 dude, who declines a bit, you would expect to maybe walk just as much or MORE as an old man but just hit for a lower average and with a bit less pop. Like Carlos Santana, who was .259/.366/.498 at age 30 and .240/.318/.429 at f***ing 37 years old. That's less hits but still a .189 ISO. Corner outfield guy like George, you kind of want him to age into a DH who can still do damage, right?

 

George's power has declined more than it should have. There is a way out of this, and it's pretty simple, he needs to just find his old batted ball profile and pull it in the air a bit more. He won't do that and hit .271 anymore because that level of skill is gone, but can probably hit .230/.320/.430 or so instead of the not impactful .241/.318/.393 (101 wRC+) line he has provided in the last two years. Not a huge bump but that might be a 110 wRC+ or so. Which would be fine.

 

It seems like he's trading the power for speed. He was never a burner on the bases, but since joining the Jays he's doing it a lot more. Like you said.. it's kinda odd to steal more in your older years. Maybe his legs are feeling good. I just want more Springer dingers.

[Brownie19]

He is definitely one of the most likeable guys in the league I agree. Great teammate and a guy I don’t think many would have a negative thing to say about

 

Perhaps karma will help him rejuvenate his career (as stupid as that sounds at face value). Adrian Beltre was another one of the good guys who had a major late career swoon. Fingers crossed.

[glory]

Springer isn't a 600 PA player anymore, and certainly not a top of the order hitter anymore, so it's going to be interesting to see whether the Jays accept that reality moving forward or whether they still spoon feed him plate appearances at the top of the lineup regardless of performance. If it's the latter, then as I said earlier I think we have to expect a ~1.5 WAR and hope for something better than that rather than go into the season expecting a 2+ WAR. Unfortunately for now he is probably the best hitting OF on the team depending on what you think Varsho's bat really is based on his expected numbers (putrid .265 xwOBA), so even if they have fallen in love with Loperfido, they definitely need to add a LF who can hit this winter.

 

Thankfully Kiermaier is retiring so there's no chance of him being Atkins' plan C again.

[max silver]

Springer isn't a 600 PA player anymore, and certainly not a top of the order hitter anymore, so it's going to be interesting to see whether the Jays accept that reality moving forward or whether they still spoon feed him plate appearances at the top of the lineup regardless of performance. If it's the latter, then as I said earlier I think we have to expect a ~1.5 WAR and hope for something better than that rather than go into the season expecting a 2+ WAR. Unfortunately for now he is probably the best hitting OF on the team depending on what you think Varsho's bat really is based on his expected numbers (putrid .265 xwOBA), so even if they have fallen in love with Loperfido, they definitely need to add a LF who can hit this winter.

 

Thankfully Kiermaier is retiring so there's no chance of him being Atkins' plan C again.

 

Barger has been much better in his most recent callup and Roden is destroying AAA pitching in recent months so each of those guys have a good shot to factor in next season.

[Terminator]

Everyone keeps ignoring Springer's bad luck.

 

He's had a .332 and .331 xwOBA the past two years. But his wOBA has been .320 and .302 with a BABIP of .243 this year.

 

Even if next year he's a true talent .320 xwOBA player, if he merely gets normal luck, or heck good luck, everyone will be saying "he's back" when he's actually been pretty solid this whole time.

[max silver]

Everyone keeps ignoring Springer's bad luck.

 

He's had a .332 and .331 xwOBA the past two years. But his wOBA has been .320 and .302 with a BABIP of .243 this year.

 

Even if next year he's a true talent .320 xwOBA player, if he merely gets normal luck, or heck good luck, everyone will be saying "he's back" when he's actually been pretty solid this whole time.

 

His last 3.5 months have seen the results line up much more closely with the expected stats so hopefully this is something that can carry forward. Springer has posted a .334 wOBA vs .347 xwOBA (-0.013) in this period after May 26, as compared to .243 wOBA/.300 xwOBA (-0.057) until May 25.

[wilko]

His last 3.5 months have seen the results line up much more closely with the expected stats so hopefully this is something that can carry forward. Springer has posted a .334 wOBA vs .347 xwOBA (-0.013) in this period after May 26, as compared to .243 wOBA/.300 xwOBA (-0.057) until May 25.

 

More like 2 months. He was hot garbage in August. June was passable, July he was GOOD, and now he's rolling into September hot (so far).