General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Spanky99]

Even if the Jays get to 71-68 with a sweep of the Twins, they likely are 4 to 5 GB of WC3 which is a lot of ground to make up still up over the final month.

 

They definitely have to sweep the Twins this weekend in order to make up ground on them. Season is on the line this week haha.

 

They would have to at least win 16 or 17 of their final 23 regular season games in September after the Twins series which would get them to 87 or 88 wins.

 

The season was over when they lost 7 in a row back in June, I think you need to *temper* your expectations for the rest of the season, sir.

[Spanky99]

Don't look now but the Jays are on a roll!

 

6 in a row, I don't give a f*** when that game was started back in June. Go Jays Go...

[Omar]

The season was over when they lost 7 in a row back in June, I think you need to *temper* your expectations for the rest of the season, sir.

 

Should have kept IKF for this historic resurgence.

 

Charles McAdoo better pan out.

[Spanky99]

Should have kept IKF for this historic resurgence.

 

Charles McAdoo better pan out.

 

Love that trade!

[wilko]

Should have kept IKF for this historic resurgence.

 

Charles McAdoo better pan out.

 

McAdoo might be legit. He's got some POWER.

[Masterbather]

Even if the Jays get to 71-68 with a sweep of the Twins, they likely are 4 to 5 GB of WC3 which is a lot of ground to make up still up over the final month.

 

They definitely have to sweep the Twins this weekend in order to make up ground on them. Season is on the line this week haha.

 

They would have to at least win 16 or 17 of their final 23 regular season games in September after the Twins series which would get them to 87 or 88 wins.

It's over. Been over for a while. If they had managed to win a couple of more games during the season and still manage to win a couple of more in Boston yes Minnesota could have at least been fascinating this weekend. But they didn't, and it won't be. Besides this still isn't a great team, outside of the Angels it's still been up and down, and the Angels are just an absolute sack of s***. In fact I'm pretty sure we're a few games under .500 in the second half if you factor out the dominance of the Angels.

[Omar]

It's over. Been over for a while. If they had managed to win a couple of more games during the season and still manage to win a couple of more in Boston yes Minnesota could have at least been fascinating this weekend. But they didn't, and it won't be. Besides this still isn't a great team, outside of the Angels it's still been up and down, and the Angels are just an absolute sack of s***. In fact I'm pretty sure we're a few games under .500 in the second half if you factor out the dominance of the Angels.

 

I think the Jays are 20 - 16 since the all Star break.

[Masterbather]

I think the Jays are 20 - 16 since the all Star break.

 

Including the Angels, so I guess 13-16 without them. If you want to throw in the afternoon Boston game as a more true indication of the second half, still 14-16. Kind of what we've been, even if we are doing it a bit different right now.

 

It's more fun to watch at least, mostly. Of course our personal enjoyment of the team might also be skewed by those Angels games, but the offense hasn't been as insufferable as it was earlier in the year, the sudden return of M.Vladdy.P. and at least there is some youth to look forward to. Also to see if Francis is a mirage or a legit backend rotation piece.

[Brownie19]

I think the Jays are 20 - 16 since the all Star break.

 

We have the best record in the division since over the past 45-50 games I think.

[G-Snarls]

We have the best record in the division since over the past 45-50 games I think.

 

That's kind of amazing

[Brownie19]

That's kind of amazing

 

Perhaps. I'm not sure we were ever as bad as they played earlier in the year. We probably finish around .500 and may even sneak up into 3rd place in the division when it's all said and done. Getting absolutely nothing from Bo, KK, Swanson and Romano this year really screwed them over. I think we knew they needed things to break right to be a playoff team. Didn't happen.

[glory]

We have the best record in the division since over the past 45-50 games I think.

 

Since July 5:

 

NYY: 24-18 (---)

TOR: 25-19 (---)

TAM: 21-22 (3.5)

BAL: 20-24 (5.0)

BOS: 19-24 (5.5)

 

Even going back a bit further, it's actually pretty close all the way around.

 

Since May 19:

 

NYY: 46-39 (---)

BAL: 48-41 (---)

BOS: 45-40 (1.0)

TOR: 46-43 (2.0)

TAM: 40-44 (5.5)

 

The Jays have a negative run differential in both stretches, though nothing crazy bad. A .500ish team based on their existing talent level is probably right.

[Omar]

Playoffs will be easy to make.

[jaysblue]

Perhaps. I'm not sure we were ever as bad as they played earlier in the year. We probably finish around .500 and may even sneak up into 3rd place in the division when it's all said and done. Getting absolutely nothing from Bo, KK, Swanson and Romano this year really screwed them over. I think we knew they needed things to break right to be a playoff team. Didn't happen.

 

I think if this team was healthy and if some players actually contributed earlier on, they're in the mix for the third WC spot right now.

[jaysblue]

It's over. Been over for a while. If they had managed to win a couple of more games during the season and still manage to win a couple of more in Boston yes Minnesota could have at least been fascinating this weekend. But they didn't, and it won't be. Besides this still isn't a great team, outside of the Angels it's still been up and down, and the Angels are just an absolute sack of s***. In fact I'm pretty sure we're a few games under .500 in the second half if you factor out the dominance of the Angels.

 

Yeah it's been over for a while. This team dug themselves too far in a hole early on, a lot of injuries and awful play from some vets didn't help at all.

 

It's fun watching the Buffalo guys have success up here and fun to see Vladdy tearing the cover off the ball now. Sucks that Vladdy in April and May wasn't hitting like this when they really could have used him to stay afloat. Once the season was deemed over, funny how he starts hitting the way he is now. Definitely motivated to get a big contract and I also assume playing with no pressure in the standings has helped.

[Laika]

Bo + KK + Biggio + Turner =

 

1028 combined plate appearances and 1.3 combined WAR

 

Bo's unfortunate season/injury and the front office's bad decisions to go with these crusty old veterans + an obviously s***** Craig Biggio's son cost the team a lot of wins. Give them 4 more wins and they are at the top of the WC3 chase pack.

 

On the pitching side, I don't think there are any valid criticisms. The team did not get f***ed over by a lack of SP depth as some feared they would. They had some underperformances, from Gausman and Berrios, but not extreme ones. The bullpen was just a gut punch of randomness --- who the f*** even considered the possibility of getting negative WAR from all of Swanson, Pop, Romano, Mayza, Cabrera, and Pearson? Mayza/Swanson/Romano combined for like 3.2 WAR last year. Insane!

[AMS528]

Yeah it's been over for a while. This team dug themselves too far in a hole early on, a lot of injuries and awful play from some vets didn't help at all.

 

It's fun watching the Buffalo guys have success up here and fun to see Vladdy tearing the cover off the ball now. Sucks that Vladdy in April and May wasn't hitting like this when they really could have used him to stay afloat. Once the season was deemed over, funny how he starts hitting the way he is now. Definitely motivated to get a big contract and I also assume playing with no pressure in the standings has helped.

 

That's not really accurate, cause he did start hitting better in May. His wRC+ was 166, 172, 201 in May, June and July. He performed when he needed to, and he absolutely had some bad luck in that first month as well. He wasn't matching his expected numbers but obviously that did eventually happen.

[Spanky99]

That's not really accurate, cause he did start hitting better in May. His wRC+ was 166, 172, 201 in May, June and July. He performed when he needed to, and he absolutely had some bad luck in that first month as well. He wasn't matching his expected numbers but obviously that did eventually happen.

 

I was going to say, looking at his splits, he had a slow start in April, that's it. The ISO picked up bigly in June and on.

[Orgfiller]

That's not really accurate, cause he did start hitting better in May. His wRC+ was 166, 172, 201 in May, June and July. He performed when he needed to, and he absolutely had some bad luck in that first month as well. He wasn't matching his expected numbers but obviously that did eventually happen.

 

The problem with May is he had turned into kind of a slap hitter. Like yes his wRC+ was 166, but his BABIP was .412 and his ISO .112 which was lower than even his poor April. Now sure, in retrospect you can say that maybe May was him tweaking his swing to have more bat control and plate discipline, as his K rate dropped and walk rate improved. But it was concerning at the time that someone with his natural raw power and hitting prowess could only be a rich man's Ichiro. Subsequent months saw the power output and contact ability merge into one, culminating in the glorious stretch from July onwards as an absolutely elite hitter.

[Governator]

Is there any data on how well FA long term deals have panned out for players signing with new teams (new environment) vs staying with their original organization?

 

Guessing nothing concrete

[Brownie19]

Is there any data on how well FA long term deals have panned out for players signing with new teams (new environment) vs staying with their original organization?

 

Guessing nothing concrete

 

I have no idea, but my gut would tell you it isn't pretty. Although that's somewhat to be expected as most are signing at age 30 or older and thus declining. Teams know they are trying to get 3-4 great years out of them and then absorbing the s***** tail end of the deal...I wonder how often teams even get those first 3-4 years of production though. Less than you'd think I suspect.

[Terminator]

Think of all those high dollar short stops that signed a couple of years ago....yikes

[AMS528]

Think of all those high dollar short stops that signed a couple of years ago....yikes

 

Story and Baez were disasters, Lindor is on a HOF path, Seager has a world series and has been great, and Correa was great one season, poor in his second and amazing this year pre injury (which is his long term concern).

 

So feels like it's a fairly mixed bag. Baez was definitely by far the riskiest profile, everyone knew it, and it blew up in the exact way you would expect. Story could have been ok.

 

Am I missing anyone?

[Spanky99]

Story and Baez were disasters, Lindor is on a HOF path, Seager has a world series and has been great, and Correa was great one season, poor in his second and amazing this year pre injury (which is his long term concern).

 

So feels like it's a fairly mixed bag. Baez was definitely by far the riskiest profile, everyone knew it, and it blew up in the exact way you would expect. Story could have been ok.

 

Am I missing anyone?

 

Agreed, and Trea Turner is the one you're missing who's been pretty good.

[Laika]

Boogers

[G-Snarls]

Story and Baez were disasters, Lindor is on a HOF path, Seager has a world series and has been great, and Correa was great one season, poor in his second and amazing this year pre injury (which is his long term concern).

 

So feels like it's a fairly mixed bag. Baez was definitely by far the riskiest profile, everyone knew it, and it blew up in the exact way you would expect. Story could have been ok.

 

Am I missing anyone?

 

Xander Bogaerts

 

4.6 WAR last year and 1.6 so far this year

 

Could definitely go bad at some point

[Spanky99]

Boogers

 

Oh yeah, he was playing 2nd for the most part this season, but man has he scuffled this season.

[AMS528]

Agreed, and Trea Turner is the one you're missing who's been pretty good.

 

I had only been counting the ones from 2021 winter, but he makes sense to include as well. Out of those 6 big contracts, I think four of those teams would be anywhere between fine with to thrilled with the deals.

 

That's honestly not bad given the amount of money being paid to those guys.

[Stangstag]

Bo + KK + Biggio + Turner =

 

1028 combined plate appearances and 1.3 combined WAR

 

Bo's unfortunate season/injury and the front office's bad decisions to go with these crusty old veterans + an obviously s***** Craig Biggio's son cost the team a lot of wins. Give them 4 more wins and they are at the top of the WC3 chase pack.

 

On the pitching side, I don't think there are any valid criticisms. The team did not get f***ed over by a lack of SP depth as some feared they would. They had some underperformances, from Gausman and Berrios, but not extreme ones. The bullpen was just a gut punch of randomness --- who the f*** even considered the possibility of getting negative WAR from all of Swanson, Pop, Romano, Mayza, Cabrera, and Pearson? Mayza/Swanson/Romano combined for like 3.2 WAR last year. Insane!

 

All of this is a completely fair assessment of what went wrong this year. Could argue the 20+ million given to KK & Turner should have been better-spent. But really the bullpen just completely imploding is something that is extremely hard to recover from.

[Ryu In My House]

Javier Báez is weird. He had some pretty great seasons before Detroit, but now...

 

What happened there do you think? If Bo does get traded, and the Tigers ate a lot of his salary, would Javier Báez be an interesting trade target?