General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[glory]

The Varsho in LF thing is so overblown IMO.

 

It worked out amazingly in year 1. They doubled down on KK in Year 2 and it didn't work, but it's not because Varsho was playing a lot of LF, it was because KK sucked.

 

I'll give them a pass for 2023 even without the benefit of hindsight because if I'm remembering correctly they signed KK first, and then made the Varsho trade later. Once they already signed KK it would have been useless to play him anywhere other than CF, so they just went with Varsho in LF for a season. If they left it at that and went a different direction in 2024, then I would have been fine with that. Putting Varsho in LF again in 2024 was insanity. If they traded for Luis Robert and put Varsho in LF, then fine, but running it back with KK when there was next to no shot he was repeating 2023's offensive output is completely on the org.

[max silver]

I'll give them a pass for 2023 even without the benefit of hindsight because if I'm remembering correctly they signed KK first, and then made the Varsho trade later. Once they already signed KK it would have been useless to play him anywhere other than CF, so they just went with Varsho in LF for a season. If they left it at that and went a different direction in 2024, then I would have been fine with that. Putting Varsho in LF again in 2024 was insanity. If they traded for Luis Robert and put Varsho in LF, then fine, but running it back with KK when there was next to no shot he was repeating 2023's offensive output is completely on the org.

 

Sure you could easily make the case it was unrealistic to expect Kiermaier to replicate his 2023 numbers, but I don't know if there was any reason to expect this level of dropoff. Including 2023 Kiermier produced an average 99 wRC+ over his last 4 seasons of play. Exclude 2023 and he still managed a 96 wRC+ over his previous 3 seasons. There wasn't really a reason to expect the 50 wRC+ that he ended up with so far this season as it literally came out of nowhere.

[Terminator]

I'll give them a pass for 2023 even without the benefit of hindsight because if I'm remembering correctly they signed KK first, and then made the Varsho trade later. Once they already signed KK it would have been useless to play him anywhere other than CF, so they just went with Varsho in LF for a season. If they left it at that and went a different direction in 2024, then I would have been fine with that. Putting Varsho in LF again in 2024 was insanity. If they traded for Luis Robert and put Varsho in LF, then fine, but running it back with KK when there was next to no shot he was repeating 2023's offensive output is completely on the org.

 

Yeah bringing him back in 2024 was not the right move. But they don't think in terms of just adding offense like fans do. They try and add value to the team in the most efficient way possible.

 

KK put up nearly a 4 bWAR season last year and 2.8 fWAR which has always hated KK's defense for some reason.

 

Yeah those numbers weren't repeatable but they weren't paying for him to repeat that. They were hoping to get a couple of WAR out of him. His bat completely cratered so it didn't work out, but it also illustrates just how unique of a player he is when he can hit like a pitcher but still put up 0.5 bWAR and 0.1 fWAR.

[Brownie19]

Yeah that’s fair. Not a terrible a trade, but you have to think Moreno could have got us a better player, even if he was part of a bigger package. Varsho is not a difference-maker and we gave up 2 years of control.

 

I think its clear the front office thought he’d be more of a 110ish wRC+ hitter.

 

I would agree. I think they thought he was a 105-115 wRC+ hitter with upside for more. Turns out he's not. I think they correctly identified the need to shore up CF with someone long term. Easy to suggest they could have just signed KK or someone like him...but this season is a good example of the risk involved with that.

[Terminator]

Further to the Varsho in LF point, CF gets a +2.5 positional adjustment and LF/RF get -7.5. So that's 10 runs or a total of 1 win, which seems significant.

 

But that's per 162 games. Nobody is playing that many games so that eats into the run total a little bit. Then factor in that Varsho played 64 games in CF last year and that eats into it even more. Then there's whatever value comes from not having to carry a 4th OF who can play CF (or carrying one that can't really play CF that well).

 

By the time you factor all that in, Varsho's WAR probably got dinged by about 0.2 or so. KK putting up a fat WAR number more than made up for that in '23. Didn't work in 2022.

[Laika]

Further to the Varsho in LF point, CF gets a +2.5 positional adjustment and LF/RF get -7.5. So that's 10 runs or a total of 1 win, which seems significant.

 

But that's per 162 games. Nobody is playing that many games so that eats into the run total a little bit. Then factor in that Varsho played 64 games in CF last year and that eats into it even more. Then there's whatever value comes from not having to carry a 4th OF who can play CF (or carrying one that can't really play CF that well).

 

By the time you factor all that in, Varsho's WAR probably got dinged by about 0.2 or so. KK putting up a fat WAR number more than made up for that in '23. Didn't work in 2022.

 

It's more about the lost offense

[Terminator]

Yeah that’s fair. Not a terrible a trade, but you have to think Moreno could have got us a better player, even if he was part of a bigger package. Varsho is not a difference-maker and we gave up 2 years of control.

 

I think its clear the front office thought he’d be more of a 110ish wRC+ hitter.

 

Right, but you can see the angle they were going for. If he hits 110 wRC+, which I believe he was projected to do at the time, he's an All-Star and should flirt with a Top 5 MVP vote tally.

 

Dude's bat has turned into an almost worst-case scenario and the trade is just kind of meh.

[Terminator]

It's more about the lost offense

 

That might matter a little bit but not sure how much.

 

If you gain runs via offense you'll probably just give them back via defense and the bottom line doesn't change much. Just take the value wherever you can get it.

[BTS]

I remember the 2-3 week stretch in April or May where Varsho was one of the hottest hitters in baseball. Just hitting nuke after nuke. That was fun.

[Brownie19]

Right, but you can see the angle they were going for. If he hits 110 wRC+, which I believe he was projected to do at the time, he's an All-Star and should flirt with a Top 5 MVP vote tally.

 

Dude's bat has turned into an almost worst-case scenario and the trade is just kind of meh.

 

Bingo. There was always a probability Varsho's bat was 90 wRC+. It was probably a low probability when they made the trade and he projected to be a 4-5 WAR player. Sometimes even good decisions that have probabilities in your favor, don't work out. The good news is his BsR and Def are so good that even if he's a 90 wRC+ bat - he's still a ML starting CFer.

[AMS528]

Alejandro Kirk is a 25 year old catcher with a 1.2 fWAR in 61 games, who is really good defensively, who walks at a solid rate and strikes out very little. If he develops a touch of additional power, he has a shot at putting out really great overall numbers for a few years.

 

Moreno is not terribly overweight and a soulcrushingly bad baserunner which I think is an additional difference that's fair to point out. He has graded out as a completely neutral runner this year which if Kirk ever does we would consider a miracle.

 

Also this doesn't say much to me, because I actually like Kirk in spite of that, and he's a much better hitter than his numbers show. His power is definitely better. I don't know if he has the endurance to play enough games to not need a solid backup, but Kirk can be a good enough hitter to be worth like 3 WAR in a season easily. Kirk is a good player with limitations and he'll be better next year. I believe in his steamer600 projections.

 

Also am entirely aware Moreno was temporarily #1 prospect, but doesn't make it not technically true that we didn't trade away a #1 prospect. But that's a fair point, we did not trade away the #1 prospect. And he would still be very valuable as a trade piece at #12.

Edited August 6, 2024 by AMS528

[AMS528]

Bingo. There was always a probability Varsho's bat was 90 wRC+. It was probably a low probability when they made the trade and he projected to be a 4-5 WAR player. Sometimes even good decisions that have probabilities in your favor, don't work out. The good news is his BsR and Def are so good that even if he's a 90 wRC+ bat - he's still a ML starting CFer.

 

A question here, would that be because of his very good minor league numbers? Just his major league numbers would show that it was a reasonable (but not necessarily the likelier) probability. The season before his expected numbers would have him right around like 90 wRC+, and the season before he was better and his batted/expected lined right up at his 100 wRC+.

[L54]

I predicted a 5 WAR Varsho season so I’m not claiming to be a genius but with the benefit of hindsight how can anyone look at Varsho’s statcast page and be like damn if only he had a slightly above average bat like he was supposed to

 

Dudes page is ice cold. Like the inverse of Vlad or Yordan. There is nothing that says unlucky or underperforming hitter. It just paints the picture of a not very good one

[max silver]

I predicted a 5 WAR Varsho season so I’m not claiming to be a genius but with the benefit of hindsight how can anyone look at Varsho’s statcast page and be like damn if only he had a slightly above average bat like he was supposed to

 

Dudes page is ice cold. Like the inverse of Vlad or Yordan. There is nothing that says unlucky or underperforming hitter. It just paints the picture of a not very good one

 

Thank goodness he's one of the few guys on the Blue Jays outperforming his expected numbers.

[L54]

Thank goodness he's one of the few guys on the Blue Jays outperforming his expected numbers.

 

Scary but true

[Spanky99]

I predicted a 5 WAR Varsho season so I’m not claiming to be a genius but with the benefit of hindsight how can anyone look at Varsho’s statcast page and be like damn if only he had a slightly above average bat like he was supposed to

 

Dudes page is ice cold. Like the inverse of Vlad or Yordan. There is nothing that says unlucky or underperforming hitter. It just paints the picture of a not very good one

 

Yes it has been, but a slightly above average bat at CF he'd be somewhere above 3 WAR right now? With an offensive LF bat that''ve been just gravy in hindsight, there's still 2 months left in the season as well. Re-upping KK was a mistake and quite a few seen it coming. The trade itself still isn't bad.

[Stangstag]

I would agree. I think they thought he was a 105-115 wRC+ hitter with upside for more. Turns out he's not. I think they correctly identified the need to shore up CF with someone long term. Easy to suggest they could have just signed KK or someone like him...but this season is a good example of the risk involved with that.

 

Right, this is all us speaking with hindsight now.

 

At the time, I thought the trade was good. Its still fine I guess, just not what we were hoping for.

[L54]

Yes it has been, but a slightly above average bat at CF he'd be somewhere above 3 WAR right now? With an offensive LF bat that''ve been just gravy in hindsight, there's still 2 months left in the season as well. Re-upping KK was a mistake and quite a few seen it coming. The trade itself still isn't bad.

 

The only point I’m making is that there was really no reason to believe there was untapped upside when you look at those batted ball metrics. In fact he appeared to be a heavy regression candidate

[Spanky99]

The only point I’m making is that there was really no reason to believe there was untapped upside when you look at those batted ball metrics. In fact he appeared to be a heavy regression candidate

 

In '22? Ah yes, I see on his SS profile.

[Jays24]

I'm sure you'll feel good about it next year when we do it again but with you on our side this time lol.

 

Blue Jays Linked To Yankees Superstar Juan Soto In Possible Stunner https://www.si.com/mlb/yankees/news/blue-jays-linked-to-yankees-superstar-juan-soto-in-possible-stunner-pat3

[Omar]

[glory]

John Schneider licking his chops over getting to bench a young player for Votto.

[metafour]

The only point I’m making is that there was really no reason to believe there was untapped upside when you look at those batted ball metrics. In fact he appeared to be a heavy regression candidate

 

It is so strange because he was rock-solid as a prospect in the high minors. He looked nothing like the hitter he ended up becoming at the MLB level:

 

AA: .301/.378/.520 for a 159 wRC+ with a 13.9% K-rate

AAA: .313/.368/.750 for a 161 wRC+ with an 18.4% K-rate (small sample of 18 games)

 

Obviously stats don't always line up, but there was nothing to suggest that he would be a .200 MLB hitter. Going back even further, he hit .311 in Rookie ball and .286 in High-A.

[Jimcanuck]

Need to bring up Votto and see if he can be the 2025 DH

 

If he can, all the Jays need to do is sign Soto and trade for Machado

[L54]

It is so strange because he was rock-solid as a prospect in the high minors. He looked nothing like the hitter he ended up becoming at the MLB level:

 

AA: .301/.378/.520 for a 159 wRC+ with a 13.9% K-rate

AAA: .313/.368/.750 for a 161 wRC+ with an 18.4% K-rate (small sample of 18 games)

 

Obviously stats don't always line up, but there was nothing to suggest that he would be a .200 MLB hitter. Going back even further, he hit .311 in Rookie ball and .286 in High-A.

 

And those minor league numbers are probably still the main driver of his league average projections

 

What I’m saying is at the time of trade there was 1000 PA’s and no reason to realistically expect growth other than optimism

[Spanky99]

And those minor league numbers are probably still the main driver of his league average projections

 

What I’m saying is at the time of trade there was 1000 PA’s and no reason to realistically expect growth other than optimism

 

Not the ISO and age on a low BABIP? There had to be a reason.

[L54]

Not the ISO and age on a low BABIP? There had to be a reason.

 

Low BABIP’s should be expected from him because he’s like 6-10 percentage points above average FB rates

 

I’m referencing the expected stats

 

I don’t think they’re going to differ that dramatically from teams own internal evaluations. Maybe I’m wrong

[Spanky99]

Low BABIP’s should be expected from him because he’s like 6-10 percentage points above average FB rates

 

I’m referencing the expected stats

 

I don’t think they’re going to differ that dramatically from teams own internal evaluations. Maybe I’m wrong

 

I get it, we don't know, but the Birds might have seen something.

[John_Havok]

The only point I’m making is that there was really no reason to believe there was untapped upside when you look at those batted ball metrics. In fact he appeared to be a heavy regression candidate

 

I disagree to a point. Making better swing decisions would likely result in better quality contact and thus...and increase in some numbers.

 

That, and cleaning up the hand movement.

[Brownie19]

A question here, would that be because of his very good minor league numbers? Just his major league numbers would show that it was a reasonable (but not necessarily the likelier) probability. The season before his expected numbers would have him right around like 90 wRC+, and the season before he was better and his batted/expected lined right up at his 100 wRC+.

 

I think his minor league numbers would be factored into the equation - yes, as metafour pointed out.

 

I guess you can say 1000 PA's at the ML level tells you much more and makes those minor league numbers obsolete. I actually don't know exactly how many PA's one needs to start ignoring what they did in the minors....anyone know the answer?