General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Krylian]

A serious contenders best off-season acquisition isn't IKF.

[John_Havok]

Haha okay Mr Righteous good for you

 

Didn't mean to sound that way, just that I'm more into judging the overall process, not the variant results.

 

The process of signing Turner was pretty logical

 

The process of signing IKF was ... troubling, but defensable.

 

The process of signing KK was less defensible, but I somewhat understand why they went that way given thebterrible FAs available after Ohtani.

 

The overall process of Atkins and FA signings has been objectively more good than bad.

 

The process of drafting and development...clearly there's a lot left to be desired there, but I think the development part is the more problematic piece there.

[max silver]

Would you still think that if he comes back from injury and puts up a 70 wRC+ the rest of the season after not being traded?

 

With the level of defense he provides that would still likely to lead to something like a 2.5-3 win season for $7 million. That's still a great value signing. Projection systems are calling for 88-93 wRC+ the rest of the way which is a touch above his career averages so 70 seems pretty unlikely.

[Abomination]

A serious contenders best off-season acquisition isn't IKF.

 

IKF probably isn't for us either. He's definitely wildly exceeded expectations though.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Do you guys think that bitching daily about a couple of one year deals this past offseason is perhaps missing the forest for the trees? Hear me out.

 

1. The drafting and player development and the onfield performance of the core, are far far bigger issues and far more worthy of your time.

2. Atkins did seemingly hit on a couple of multi-year deals in IKF and Yariel. That's going to be a bigger net gain then whatever you guys think is lost by not signing Joc over Turner in a garbage year.

3. Atkins bigger screwup, is not playing a Buffalo Boy over KK and Turner much sooner. Horwitz is a Steamer600 3.5 WAR player (!!!). Schneider is a 2.3 WAR Steamer600 2B/LF. Ernie Clement is a 2.1 WAR infielder. These guys are just as good or better than any of the FAs you keep longing for and should have been playing while we were still in contention.

 

Bottomline is that Ross Atkins has 99 problems, and his offseason might be one. But it's not very high on the list and even then it's only a couple of one year deals that he whiffed on. But even then he could have rectified it quickly with a Buffalo Boy and he didn't.

 

Thank you. Beautifully said

[Brownie19]

Honestly this has confused me as to why he didn't get any kind of flyer. But I'm going to assume that because he did overperform his peripherals, and had a very scare strikeout rate teams figured they could do better with less risk or go internal. Still he absolutely mashed righties last year.

 

Many said the same thing about J.D. Martinez this offseason too. It is really odd that no team has given him a call.

[Brownie19]

I would have preferred Joc over Turner myself and I'm sure this just adds to my lor as an Atkins apologetic, but hear me out.

 

Pederson's last 4 seasons (wRC+)

 

86, 96, 146, 111

 

He was projected for a 115 wRC+ this year and is a strict platoon player. Joc was projected for 1.1 WAR, Turner for 1.0 WAR.

 

What was the probability that Joc Pederson had a good year and outperformed his projections? I suspect it was similar to the probability that Turner did - although perhaps you could argue that Joc's age gave him the advantage. However, as a minimum, I suspect probabilities for Pederson and Turner are a lot closer than people want to admit. You also could factor in that Pederson likely only gives you 425-450 PA's a year, whereas Turner likes gives you 550-600.

 

Although I would have preferred Pederson (due to him being a lefty and having more power), I don't agree with a suggestion that signing Turner over Pederson was some god awful decision. Those saying that are looking at today's results, not the probabilities when the signings were made.

 

I agree with Term and Laika that at the end of the day, this decision doesn't have a major impact on the season, but fans will latch onto anything they can these days to feed their internal hatred of the team.

[Stangstag]

I would have preferred Joc over Turner myself and I'm sure this just adds to my lor as an Atkins apologetic, but hear me out.

 

Pederson's last 4 seasons (wRC+)

 

86, 96, 146, 111

 

He was projected for a 115 wRC+ this year and is a strict platoon player. Joc was projected for 1.1 WAR, Turner for 1.0 WAR.

 

What was the probability that Joc Pederson had a good year and outperformed his projections? I suspect it was similar to the probability that Turner did - although perhaps you could argue that Joc's age gave him the advantage. However, as a minimum, I suspect probabilities for Pederson and Turner are a lot closer than people want to admit. You also could factor in that Pederson likely only gives you 425-450 PA's a year, whereas Turner likes gives you 550-600.

 

Although I would have preferred Pederson (due to him being a lefty and having more power), I don't agree with a suggestion that signing Turner over Pederson was some god awful decision. Those saying that are looking at today's results, not the probabilities when the signings were made.

 

I agree with Term and Laika that at the end of the day, this decision doesn't have a major impact on the season, but fans will latch onto anything they can these days to feed their internal hatred of the team.

 

Atkins was relying too much on vetrin presents when he set his eyes on Turner. Feels like Ross gets tunnel vision for certain guys at times.

[Brownie19]

Atkins was relying too much on vetrin presents when he set his eyes on Turner. Feels like Ross gets tunnel vision for certain guys at times.

 

Perhaps. He may also have loved the production with RISP also - as Turner is one of a few that seemingly consistently hits better with RISP.

 

But - that's not my point. At the time they signed, I suspect the outcome probabilities were similar for both players. Joc is producing in like the 90th percentile outcome, while Turner is producing in like the 30th percentile outcome. That is outside of the GM's control. There's also no guarantee (or anyway of knowing) that Joc would be producing the same in Toronto as he is in Arizona.

[max silver]

I would have preferred Joc over Turner myself and I'm sure this just adds to my lor as an Atkins apologetic, but hear me out.

 

Pederson's last 4 seasons (wRC+)

 

86, 96, 146, 111

 

He was projected for a 115 wRC+ this year and is a strict platoon player. Joc was projected for 1.1 WAR, Turner for 1.0 WAR.

 

What was the probability that Joc Pederson had a good year and outperformed his projections? I suspect it was similar to the probability that Turner did - although perhaps you could argue that Joc's age gave him the advantage. However, as a minimum, I suspect probabilities for Pederson and Turner are a lot closer than people want to admit. You also could factor in that Pederson likely only gives you 425-450 PA's a year, whereas Turner likes gives you 550-600.

 

Although I would have preferred Pederson (due to him being a lefty and having more power), I don't agree with a suggestion that signing Turner over Pederson was some god awful decision. Those saying that are looking at today's results, not the probabilities when the signings were made.

 

I agree with Term and Laika that at the end of the day, this decision doesn't have a major impact on the season, but fans will latch onto anything they can these days to feed their internal hatred of the team.

 

I think Pederson was a really strong bounceback candidate based on his underlying numbers from the 2023 season. His .366 xwOBA was nearly identical to his .367 xwOBA from the prior season but the on field results dropped from .373 wOBA to .331 wOBA.

[glory]

The only downside to Joc was he’d have to be platooned. Otherwise it was a no brainer if he was willing to sign here. Power, LHB, and as mentioned the expected numbers pointed to 2023 being an unlucky year for him. Ideal bounce back guy, which Atkins is typically good at identifying but not this off season for some reason. Turner is 39 and showed signs of decline last season, especially against RHP. There was no reason to expect a big year from him. Joc at least had the potential to have one, and he’s showing it.

[BigCecil]

Just taking a look 96 games and 60% of the season completed - at what we for for the FO investments made this offseason:

 

$50M AAV committed this off season on KK, IKF, JT, Y-Rod, Green option and Vogs to round out the FO roster construction.

 

Total cumulative fWAR of this illustrious list is total 2.0

 

Of this net total, 2 WAR is career year so far of IKF.

 

Cost/WAR this off season was 4.4M median.

 

Piss poor return.

[Brownie19]

Just taking a look 96 games and 60% of the season completed - at what we for for the FO investments made this offseason:

 

$50M AAV committed this off season on KK, IKF, JT, Y-Rod, Green option and Vogs to round out the FO roster construction.

 

Total cumulative fWAR of this illustrious list is total 2.0

 

Of this net total, 2 WAR is career year so far of IKF.

 

Cost/WAR this off season was 4.4M median.

 

Piss poor return.

 

To be fair, the Yariel signing was more of a long term thing. I don't think the Jays expected him to have a major impact this season - he would just add to their pitching depth this year. Based on what we've seen so far, that looks like it was a really solid move.

 

But yes, the FA signings this year haven't been great. Not nearly as good as Atkins has been between 2020 and 2023. I do wonder what the league average for this stuff is. I don't think anyone should expect a GM to be perfect with their FA signings and provide exceptional value year after year. They all swing and miss sometimes.

[Brownie19]

I think Pederson was a really strong bounceback candidate based on his underlying numbers from the 2023 season. His .366 xwOBA was nearly identical to his .367 xwOBA from the prior season but the on field results dropped from .373 wOBA to .331 wOBA.

 

Yeah - I liked him as a target too for similar reasons. But there was always risk he wouldn't produce much this year. He's bounced around the league over the last 4 years, during which he produced one amazing year, one solid year and 2 below average years. He's running a career high BABIP and is tied with his best season ever at the plate at age 32. No matter how you slice it - nobody should have expected this type of year from him. He's producing at the 90th percentile outcome. I don't think anyone should have been overly surprised if Joc was producing like Soler is this year (102 wRC+, 0.2 WAR).

 

Did the Jays look into Carlos Santana? I mean we could look at those results and suggest they made a massive mistake in not brining him in. 1.7 WAR this year. Dumb Blue Jays missed out.

 

There were like 5 or 6 reasonable free agent DH targets this year. It was like roulette as to which ones would produce and which ones would bust and I'm not sure anyone would suggest they knew which would do what.

 

Pederson - "hit"

JD Martinez - "hit"

Santana - "hit"

Turner - "missed"

Garver - "missed"

Soler - "missed"

Duvall - "missed"

[AMS528]

Yeah - I liked him as a target too for similar reasons. But there was always risk he wouldn't produce much this year. He's bounced around the league over the last 4 years, during which he produced one amazing year, one solid year and 2 below average years. He's running a career high BABIP and is tied with his best season ever at the plate at age 32. No matter how you slice it - nobody should have expected this type of year from him. He's producing at the 90th percentile outcome. I don't think anyone should have been overly surprised if Joc was producing like Soler is this year (102 wRC+, 0.2 WAR).

 

Did the Jays look into Carlos Santana? I mean we could look at those results and suggest they made a massive mistake in not brining him in. 1.7 WAR this year. Dumb Blue Jays missed out.

 

There were like 5 or 6 reasonable free agent DH targets this year. It was like roulette as to which ones would produce and which ones would bust and I'm not sure anyone would suggest they knew which would do what.

 

Pederson - "hit"

JD Martinez - "hit"

Santana - "hit"

Turner - "missed"

Garver - "missed"

Soler - "missed"

Duvall - "missed"

 

Of those guys I think everyone felt Soler was likely to be a terrible signing for more than a year. I think I saw that regularly on this board. He was remarkably inconsistent year to year for a guy who got a multi year deal. Duvall only signed for 3 million so I think he was seen as a comparatively lower level signing in that list.

 

I think getting success with Santana is absolutely lucky. He hasn't hit anywhere near like this for years and he signed for a bit cheaper than the rest because of that as well. Turner being the oldest position player in the league would have been a strike against him along with a fairly steady year to year decline since 2020. He's a bit unlucky this year as well unfortunately but his numbers wouldn't be too much better.

 

Garver would have been a reasonable one to sign and that would have been a bit unlucky to get the performance he's had. Albeit he's been very inconsistent in his career and with very few games played year to year. I'd put Turner and Garver on a similar tier of signing.

 

To me Pederson and JD Martinez were the two guys who stood out a bit more as better options. Pederson had good underlying numbers and a good year before that. JD Martinez was older but also had the best, widest, and most recent history of being a great hitter.

 

Is it unreasonable to see Pederson and Martinez as the two best of the bunch at that time? Not by a huge amount, and I think Pederson carried some risk as well cause he's had inconsistency. Really I think Martinez just by virtue of being a really great consistent hitter was the guy you could look at and say if he fails you can't complain cause he's been a great hitter 10 of the past 11 years and his underlying numbers are always great as well.

[max silver]

Just taking a look 96 games and 60% of the season completed - at what we for for the FO investments made this offseason:

 

$50M AAV committed this off season on KK, IKF, JT, Y-Rod, Green option and Vogs to round out the FO roster construction.

 

Total cumulative fWAR of this illustrious list is total 2.0

 

Of this net total, 2 WAR is career year so far of IKF.

 

Cost/WAR this off season was 4.4M median.

Piss poor return.

 

I'm pretty sure this isn't an apples to apples comparison. You are taking the dollar per WAR value of non Blue Jays players based on last season, and for the players signed by the Blue Jays you are using their dollar per WAR for this season.

[Krylian]

IKF probably isn't for us either. He's definitely wildly exceeded expectations though.

 

Who is then? Who am I forgetting?

[Brownie19]

Of those guys I think everyone felt Soler was likely to be a terrible signing for more than a year. I think I saw that regularly on this board. He was remarkably inconsistent year to year for a guy who got a multi year deal. Duvall only signed for 3 million so I think he was seen as a comparatively lower level signing in that list.

 

I think getting success with Santana is absolutely lucky. He hasn't hit anywhere near like this for years and he signed for a bit cheaper than the rest because of that as well. Turner being the oldest position player in the league would have been a strike against him along with a fairly steady year to year decline since 2020. He's a bit unlucky this year as well unfortunately but his numbers wouldn't be too much better.

 

Garver would have been a reasonable one to sign and that would have been a bit unlucky to get the performance he's had. Albeit he's been very inconsistent in his career and with very few games played year to year. I'd put Turner and Garver on a similar tier of signing.

 

To me Pederson and JD Martinez were the two guys who stood out a bit more as better options. Pederson had good underlying numbers and a good year before that. JD Martinez was older but also had the best, widest, and most recent history of being a great hitter.

 

Is it unreasonable to see Pederson and Martinez as the two best of the bunch at that time? Not by a huge amount, and I think Pederson carried some risk as well cause he's had inconsistency. Really I think Martinez just by virtue of being a really great consistent hitter was the guy you could look at and say if he fails you can't complain cause he's been a great hitter 10 of the past 11 years and his underlying numbers are always great as well.

 

I think the age and large jump in K% raised a lot of flags for Martinez - but he seems to have fought off father time yet another year.

[Abomination]

Who is then? Who am I forgetting?

 

I think Y-Rod will be.

[hanton]

I don't know if this is a surprise - tl;dr Valdy not close to an extension

 

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2940287

 

clearly he's a talented player that deserves an extension - get it done ffs, figure it out

[Spanky99]

I don't know if this is a surprise - tl;dr Valdy not close to an extension

 

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2940287

 

clearly he's a talented player that deserves an extension - get it done ffs, figure it out

 

That's click bait conjecture.

[Omar]

The Blue Jays end the season with a series against the Marlins at home. How depressing. We will likely win that series so Shapiro can everyone the "future is bright" speech.

 

At least it will be the end of Ross who will likely join Kim Ng as an advisor to the Women's Softball League.

[Spanky99]

Jays skeddy released for '25...

 

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/schedule/2025-06

 

ETA: Jays probables announced against the Tigers as Bassitt/Kikuchi and Gausman.

Edited July 18, 2024 by Spanky99

[connorp]

Jays skeddy released for '25...

 

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/schedule/2025-06

 

ETA: Jays probables announced against the Tigers as Bassitt/Kikuchi and Gausman.

 

Skeddy sounds closer to what your boxer shorts look like

[Jimcanuck]

Skeddy sounds closer to what your boxer shorts look like

 

You are contributing nothing but attacks on other posters. A permaban is coming.

[hanton]

A reminder tomorrows game is on Apple TV

[connorp]

You are contributing nothing but attacks on other posters. A permaban is coming.

 

You’re just making a Max sample size. I just scanned my posts before I decided to mock your fantasy cuckery and it was a long time since making fun of anyone on board.

 

You guys should’ve closed ranks and not told me the trade details. You knew I wouldn’t be able to not chime in on that atrocity.

[Spanky99]

You’re just making a Max sample size. I just scanned my posts before I decided to mock your fantasy cuckery and it was a long time since making fun of anyone on board.

 

You guys should’ve closed ranks and not told me the trade details. You knew I wouldn’t be able to not chime in on that atrocity.

 

It was a mistake and rectified, you're an atrocity.

[connorp]

If you want to stay OT, I just had Taco Bell chalupa street tacos and they were pretty good for fast food. I don’t eat a ton of fast food and Taco Bell is usually meh, but not bad

[Carlos Danger]

If you want to stay OT, I just had Taco Bell chalupa street tacos and they were pretty good for fast food. I don’t eat a ton of fast food and Taco Bell is usually meh, but not bad

 

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