General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Laika]

The offense is struggling because they are missing pitches they should do damage on. It's not the swing and misses. Taking fastballs down the middle of the plate. Hitting fastballs down the middle of the plate into the ground because you are late. You have to be aggressive and look to do damage. Be on time like you're going to get a pitch to hit ever pitch. If you swing over a few more breaking balls so be it, but you're not going to miss the hangers, and you'll do damage on the fastball. These guys are expecting a breaking ball because they are guessing with the pitcher because of the pre game meetings and when they are wrong and get the one fastball in the AB they could handle they foul it off, take it, or beat it into the ground because they are late.

 

True for some players but not all of them. I see a lot of guys putting their A swing on pitchers pitches, earlier in counts. So just misidentifying the pitch or being too aggressive leading to weak contact.

 

To the bolded point, it definitely does seem like there is some form of collective confusion. Something like, the game-planning meetings are generally confusing the players are not getting the right (effective) information across. Whatever they have been doing with or for Springer, Vlad, Bo, Kirk.... they need to just stop doing that immediately.

[burlingtonbandit]

Yup. Call up Martinez, shuffle that lineup and pray Bo and Vladdy finally start hitting.

 

He's got 7 errors in 21 games. The last thing they need to do is call up a guy before he's ready. He could make 2 errors in the fist game and it destroy his confidence, I mean look at Barger.

[Terminator]

 

No one has faced better stuff than Vlad and the Jays as a team have faced the 2nd hardest pitching according to Nestico.

[Krylian]

 

No one has faced better stuff than Vlad and the Jays as a team have faced the 2nd hardest pitching according to Nestico.

 

Philly must be the best team in the league given they've faced the 4th best stuff and are 21-11.

[Terminator]

Philly must be the best team in the league given they've faced the 4th best stuff and are 21-11.

 

It doesn't explain everything. Their offense has done well to score the 11th most runs against that Stuff but they are 9th in fewest runs allowed which has helped a lot. They are also over performing their pytho record.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Is the expected win loss calculated from run differential?

 

The reason the Jays are our performing it might be because -18 of the -31 comes from just two games where we got clubbed to death by Houston 10-0 and 8-0.

 

Most of the other losses have been fairly close I think

[Stangstag]

 

No one has faced better stuff than Vlad and the Jays as a team have faced the 2nd hardest pitching according to Nestico.

 

I feel like I read some "analysis" like this every year that tries to explain why the lineup sucks

[G-Snarls]

I feel like I read some "analysis" like this every year that tries to explain why the lineup sucks

 

Doesn't make you feel any better does it...

[Terminator]

Is the expected win loss calculated from run differential?

 

The reason the Jays are our performing it might be because -18 of the -31 comes from just two games where we got clubbed to death by Houston 10-0 and 8-0.

 

Most of the other losses have been fairly close I think

 

Yeah true, but Houston sucks and we also got spanked by the Rockies who also suck so it can explain the RD a little bit but it's also kind of scary.

 

15-17 isn't that big of a deal right now, but being a true talent 12-20 team kind of is.

[Omar]

JP Riccardi today on X from his podcast talking about how "somethings got to give" with the Jays, and "sometimes the big guy has to take the fall", and then speculates on Schneider getting canned if the Jays don't turn around.

 

[M.E.]

Lukes on his way to DC. I assume Barger going down

[Sorrow]

Lukes on his way to DC. I assume Barger going down

 

IIRC Shulman mentioned on Barger's 1st or 2nd game that his wife was expected to give birth any day so that could be it.

[Brownie19]

IIRC Shulman mentioned on Barger's 1st or 2nd game that his wife was expected to give birth any day so that could be it.

 

Good call. What a crazy whirlwind for that kid.

[Olerud363]

Is the expected win loss calculated from run differential?

 

The reason the Jays are our performing it might be because -18 of the -31 comes from just two games where we got clubbed to death by Houston 10-0 and 8-0.

 

Most of the other losses have been fairly close I think

 

When you do that you also have to take the two best wins which were 8-2 and 9-2. So in the 4 most extreme games they are 17 for and 22 against,

 

pretty much the same in extreme games as the other games.

 

This gets me every year because people say the same thing if there is like a 20-2 game ... well there is also usually a 16-3 game or something the other way, so in the 2 most extreme games win and loss the run differential isn't too extreme.

 

Can't cherry pick the most extreme wins only or losses only.

Edited May 3, 2024 by Olerud363

[Olerud363]

When you do that you also have to take the two best wins which were 8-2 and 9-2. So in the 4 most extreme games they are 17 for and 22 against,

 

pretty much the same in extreme games as the other games.

 

This get's me every year because people say the same thing if there is like a 20-2 game ... well there is also usually a 16-3 game or something the other way, so in the 2 most extreme games win and loss the run differential isn't too extreme.

 

Can't cherry pick the most extreme wins only or losses only.

 

In 2022 when there was a 28-5 game, the worst loss was 12-0, so the most extreme game stat was 28-17, which distorted things a bit, but not nearly as bad as just taking the 28-5.

 

In the 2020 60 game season there was a 20-6 loss to the Yankees which everyone said messed up the run differential but soon after there was also a 14-1 win so the 2 most extreme games were 21-20 so run differential not messed up at all in reality.

[BigCecil]

Interesting piece for May 3rd from Rosenthal guessing on surprise sellers at the deadline.

 

https://theathletic.com/5468520/2024/05/03/mlb-trade-deadline-surprise-sellers-astros-giants/

 

Early for that, but its does hammer home we are getting closer to High Noon on Bo & Vlad, and a big test for FO and ownership.

[burlingtonbandit]

I mean it makes sense the jays should sell and capitalize on their SP/some of their relievers. With most of the pitching staff due to become free agents the next 2 years (and lineup) for that matter, they would be better off with some high upside prospects that could contribute in 2026/2027 than having 80-85 wins the next 2 years. The farm system is weak relatively and they are going to need some low cost young players even if they can fill a few spots via free agency.

 

Now it’s a question of will Rogers let Shapiro/Atkins run the re-tool.

[Delgalladay]

Now it’s a question of will Rogers let Shapiro/Atkins run the re-tool.

 

I hope not. This is why I wanted them gone after last season.

 

We’re going to be selling low on everyone the way they’re all playing right now.

[The_DH]

Lukes on his way to DC. I assume Barger going down

 

Confirmed on Lukes per Sportsnet.

[burlingtonbandit]

I hope not. This is why I wanted them gone after last season.

 

We’re going to be selling low on everyone the way they’re all playing right now.

 

Yeah Kikuchi and Garcia are really the only 2 guys who's value would be at the highest, Jansen too I guess. Berrios you could probably get decent value back with his team friendly deal. Bassit and Springer don't really have any value and then Vladdy/Bo/Gauseman all are not performing to their abilities.

 

It's still early May so lots could change from now till the deadline. If they do decide to sell they really need to do a better job of getting assets back because back in 2017-2019 they really failed. Had some good assets in Stroman/Happ and whiffed completely plus waited too long on Donaldson.

[Omar]

Yeah Kikuchi and Garcia are really the only 2 guys who's value would be at the highest, Jansen too I guess. Berrios you could probably get decent value back with his team friendly deal. Bassit and Springer don't really have any value and then Vladdy/Bo/Gauseman all are not performing to their abilities.

 

It's still early May so lots could change from now till the deadline. If they do decide to sell they really need to do a better job of getting assets back because back in 2017-2019 they really failed. Had some good assets in Stroman/Happ and whiffed completely plus waited too long on Donaldson.

 

Berrios and Gausman will get you a haul.

[harvey16]

May will be a very telling month. We have a ton of winnable games against lower tired opponents. If we aren't above .500 by the end of the Month I think it's time to go to full on rebuild mode.

[burlingtonbandit]

Berrios and Gausman will get you a haul.

 

If Gauseman returns to form then yes should be one of the most valuable players on the market.

[max silver]

If Gauseman returns to form then yes should be one of the most valuable players on the market.

 

He largely has already returned to form as the last 3 starts are very solid. All that's missing is command of the splitter and then he'll be peak Gausman again.

[M.E.]

I mean it makes sense the jays should sell and capitalize on their SP/some of their relievers. With most of the pitching staff due to become free agents the next 2 years (and lineup) for that matter, they would be better off with some high upside prospects that could contribute in 2026/2027 than having 80-85 wins the next 2 years. The farm system is weak relatively and they are going to need some low cost young players even if they can fill a few spots via free agency.

 

Now it’s a question of will Rogers let Shapiro/Atkins run the re-tool.

 

I just hope we don't screw it up as bad as the Angels did with Ohtani last year. Everyone knew he wasn't resigning there and then they gutted their farm system to try to compete in his final months. Selling was there only option and so will the Jays if they get to next year with Bo/Vlad still here.

[max silver]

I just hope we don't screw it up as bad as the Angels did with Ohtani last year. Everyone knew he wasn't resigning there and then they gutted their farm system to try to compete in his final months. Selling was there only option and so will the Jays if they get to next year with Bo/Vlad still here.

 

I recall hearing a rumor that the Angels hands were tied with regards to trading Ohtani due to the various marketing deals that were contingent on his presence with the team.

[Terminator]

May will be a very telling month. We have a ton of winnable games against lower tired opponents. If we aren't above .500 by the end of the Month I think it's time to go to full on rebuild mode.

 

HUGE month for the team

 

Ross Atkins' baseball life is literally on the line

[glory]

This season might end up resembling 2017 in a lot of ways if things continue to go south. Everyone saw the end of a competitive window, except the GM/president/owner who saw 3 million asses in the seats the year before and didn't want to mess with that. The Jays should have started the rebuild at the trade deadline in 2017 but decided to start it a year later, and it destroyed the trade returns they got because of it. I wouldn't be surprised if history repeats itself here with the Jays giving it "one last shot" in 2025 and only selling if that fails. For the sake of the Jays org short and long term, I hope they turn things around this season, because if they don't and they go into 2025 the same way they went into 2018, then it's going to set them back big time.

[Omar]

From Ken Rosenthal....

 

Last September, as the Jays underperformed, I acknowledged The Athletic’s Andy McCullough was correct when he labeled them, back in April, as “paper tigers.” Little seems to have changed.

The Jays continue to underperform. Their payroll is a franchise-record $225 million. Their farm system is meh. And with many of their big names approaching free agency, the team is at a crossroads.

Firing the manager would be an option, except the Jays already tried that in July 2022, replacing Charlie Montoyo with John Schneider. Selling, meanwhile, would be a concession that team president Mark Shapiro (signed through 2025), and general manager Ross Atkins (through 2026) have essentially failed at their jobs.

The Jays, then, will not give up on the season easily. But they have yet to sign Bo Bichette or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. long-term, and might not even want Guerrero on such a deal at this point. Their free agents after this season include Yusei Kikuchi, Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier and Danny Jansen — mostly complementary parts. But their free agents after 2025, hoo boy. Chris Bassitt. Bichette and Guerrero. Jordan Romano and a number of other relievers.

A reckoning is nearly at hand.

 

 

[burlingtonbandit]

He largely has already returned to form as the last 3 starts are very solid. All that's missing is command of the splitter and then he'll be peak Gausman again.

 

His swing and miss is way down and fastball velo last 2 starts has been 93.5MPH so I wouldn't say he's returned to form. Considering he is a 2 pitch pitcher for the most part not having command of the splitter is a pretty big component.