General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Joltin Joe]

There's plenty of studies surrounding what's happened to Springer. Age and injury related decline lol. He's followed a completely normal aging curve given his injury history.

 

Age 28 (HOU) - 3.1 WAR

Age 29 (HOU) - 6.1 WAR (peak)

Age 30 (HOU) - 1.9 WAR, shortened season, translates to 5.2 WAR/140 games

Age 31 (TOR) - 2.6 WAR, missed half the season to injury, translates to 4.7 WAR/140 games

Age 32 (TOR)- 4.1 WAR

Age 33 (TOR) - 1.8 WAR, underperformed xWOBA by 12 points, most prolific steal season of his career

Age 34 (TOR) (now) - underperforming his xWOBA by 45 points

 

Most likely off to slow start

[Eat My Shatkins]

Anyone know how Leo Jiminez' glove is at SS?

 

Maybe he can replace Bo at SS next year if they trade him and can't lure Adames to TO. Even if he only runs a 80-90 wRC+ bat at the MLB level, if he's a stud at SS defensively and provides 2-3 fWAR you can use the money saved to add offense elsewhere. Like Soto in LF and move Varsho to CF, let KK walk.

 

But yeah, I agree wholeheartedly that you throw every thing you can at Soto in the off season after (most likely) dumping Vlad.

[Daniel Labude]

Anyone know how Leo Jiminez' glove is at SS?

 

Maybe he can replace Bo at SS next year if they trade him and can't lure Adames to TO. Even if he only runs a 80-90 wRC+ bat at the MLB level, if he's a stud at SS defensively and provides 2-3 fWAR you can use the money saved to add offense elsewhere. Like Soto in LF and move Varsho to CF, let KK walk.

 

But yeah, I agree wholeheartedly that you throw every thing you can at Soto in the off season after (most likely) dumping Vlad.

 

Jimenez isn't a great defender and in close to 40 AAA games is hitting. 200 with 1 HR and 4 2Bs. Has only 16 HRs in 6 minor league seasons. I wouldn't count on him contributing as a starter next season yet

[BigCecil]

There's plenty of studies surrounding what's happened to Springer. Age and injury related decline lol. He's followed a completely normal aging curve given his injury history.

 

Age 28 (HOU) - 3.1 WAR

Age 29 (HOU) - 6.1 WAR (peak)

Age 30 (HOU) - 1.9 WAR, shortened season, translates to 5.2 WAR/140 games

Age 31 (TOR) - 2.6 WAR, missed half the season to injury, translates to 4.7 WAR/140 games

Age 32 (TOR)- 4.1 WAR

Age 33 (TOR) - 1.8 WAR, underperformed xWOBA by 12 points, most prolific steal season of his career

Age 34 (TOR) (now) - underperforming his xWOBA by 45 points

I was aware on his xWOBA but find it interesting. His avg EV and hard hit rates were way down in ‘23. I’m not sure how they correlate statistically?

[Orgfiller]

I was aware on his xWOBA but find it interesting. His avg EV and hard hit rates were way down in ‘23. I’m not sure how they correlate statistically?

 

Decreased avg EV and hard hit rates would very likely correlate to decreased performance, but not necessarily underperforming your xStats. You can underperform if you are slow, or have a suboptimal balls spray distribution chart. A good example is Matt Chapman hitting 400 foot bombs to dead CF, where even a 350 foot wall scraper gets the job done to LF. The opposite of Matt Chapman 2023 is Isaac Paredes and Davis Schneider, guys who sell out for pulling balls with good/mediocre EVs for good results, that don't necessarily have the physical tools to hit bombs all over the place ala Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez, Juan Soto types.

 

You can also technically hit balls softly and have some success, by hitting a bunch of weak infield singles or little looping line drives over the defense, those balls are simply too hard to defend. Sometimes you'll see an 80 mph soft flyball have an xBA of like .990 because those balls are nearly impossible for defenders to catch. This is a very niche skillset and not a lot of players can succeed consistently with it.

 

Springer has never been much of an avg EV darling, where he made his money is on barrel rate and sweet spot %, which have been declining the last few years. With that said, his xWOBA right now is in the 69th percentile, he still doesn't chase much and has been better at drawing walks in the early going, with an elevated sweet spot rate. These are probably the kinds of adjustments he'll have to make as his raw power declines, and he can still be an average to slightly above player earning more than he's worth.

[Jimcanuck]

Yes, lower expectations for Springer. Also it's early still, he has lots of time to get it going, but he's probably a 2 WAR and declining player going forward.

[Terminator]

 

Oh boy

[Eat My Shatkins]

 

Oh boy

 

Well, if Manoah can actually be good again I'm OK with it. That's a big IF though.

 

IF he is, it's a great spot for the Jays to be in, and yeah we don't want to break Yariel.

[Jays24]

 

Oh boy

 

With all these arm injuries, trying to think how they pulled that exact innings limit out of their asses lol.

 

To be honest, if Manoah is good enough to rejoin the pitching staff then it just means the rich get richer. Now go get rich hitting wise lol.

[M.E.]

 

Oh boy

 

If Manoah is dealing in AAA then OK. If not, why?

[glory]

Anyone know how Leo Jiminez' glove is at SS?

 

Maybe he can replace Bo at SS next year if they trade him and can't lure Adames to TO. Even if he only runs a 80-90 wRC+ bat at the MLB level, if he's a stud at SS defensively and provides 2-3 fWAR you can use the money saved to add offense elsewhere. Like Soto in LF and move Varsho to CF, let KK walk.

 

But yeah, I agree wholeheartedly that you throw every thing you can at Soto in the off season after (most likely) dumping Vlad.

 

I don't know about the defense, but I'm not sure Jimenez will hit well enough in the Majors. Good plate discipline from the looks of it, but seems very much like a utility infield type. Unless the team is high on Kasevich (who has similar concerns with the bat), I'd definitely consider signing Kim/Adames this winter if they decide to move on from Bo.

 

Of course, if the Jays have to throw 12/600 at Soto or something equally crazy and as a result have to go cheap(er) at short, then I could live with that.

[Orgfiller]

 

Oh boy

 

Well, if Manoah can actually be good again I'm OK with it. That's a big IF though.

 

IF he is, it's a great spot for the Jays to be in, and yeah we don't want to break Yariel.

 

With all these arm injuries, trying to think how they pulled that exact innings limit out of their asses lol.

 

To be honest, if Manoah is good enough to rejoin the pitching staff then it just means the rich get richer. Now go get rich hitting wise lol.

 

If Manoah is dealing in AAA then OK. If not, why?

 

I'm pretty sure part of it is just to control Rodriguez's innings. He probably tops out at 80-100 IP this season. If Manoah is good this isn't even a problem, he'll become an unhittable 2-3 IP reliever, if he isn't, he'll be back to tossing 3-4 IP with a piggyback every 5 days.

[Terminator]

I'm pretty sure part of it is just to control Rodriguez's innings. He probably tops out at 80-100 IP this season. If Manoah is good this isn't even a problem, he'll become an unhittable 2-3 IP reliever, if he isn't, he'll be back to tossing 3-4 IP with a piggyback every 5 days.

 

Yeah they definitely want to limit Yariel's innings. He's barely pitched the past couple of years. So it all makes sense but Manoah still scares the s*** out of me.

[Laika]

people reading too much into that report

 

"is deemed ready" could mean a lot of different things from

 

a) if he feels good

to

if he strings together multiple quality starts in AAA and the stuff measures out as improved

[Daniel Labude]

 

Oh boy

 

Been known since the signing, shouldn't shock anyone

[Stangstag]

Been known since the signing, shouldn't shock anyone

 

I think the only surprise would be if they moved Yariel to the bullpen NOW. I think most people assumed he’d get about 10-15 starts.

 

Now, maybe they want to have him rejoin the rotation towards the end of the season where they think he can make more of an impact.

 

If Manoah could just be serviceable then that would be extremely welcome.

[The_DH]

all things being equal, if Manoah can actually return and YRod goes to the pen, then who leaves? Assuming Green can actually return on a reasonable schedule.

[Omar]

Manoah should pony up four quality starts with the Bisons before he gets another chance in the show. Did we learn nothing from 2023?

[Daniel Labude]

I think the only surprise would be if they moved Yariel to the bullpen NOW. I think most people assumed he’d get about 10-15 starts.

 

Now, maybe they want to have him rejoin the rotation towards the end of the season where they think he can make more of an impact.

 

If Manoah could just be serviceable then that would be extremely welcome.

 

Definitely. Maybe it comes from the unknown IP limit the Jays have. 55 IP in 2022, 0 in 2023, already 14 in 2024. Hasn't thrown 100 IP since 2018. We might be looking at 60-70 IP and they want it later in the season like you said

[The_DH]

Manoah should pony up four quality starts with the Bisons before he gets another chance in the show. Did we learn nothing from 2023?

 

Would be reasonable enough.

[MikeM3]

Pulled HRs on Fastballs (4S 2S, cutter, sinker) since 2023 start

 

8 - Davis Schneider in 187 PAs

 

5- Vlad in 778 PAs

 

3 - Ernie Clement in 96 PAs

 

That is truly incredible but also gives us hope because Matt Hague is with the big club now and he was the coach getting 30 FVs to pull dingers

[Jays24]

Hopefully they do a better job of assessing Manoah than they did in 2023 and also how they judged Swanson last week.

[Eat My Shatkins]

If Tiedeman is hurt the only one left in AAA is Espino, so hopefully Manoah is good again.

 

If he isn't then Francis will get the 5th starter spot again. Which might be OK, jury isn't out on him yet.

[Jays24]

Just checked how Espinal was doing and he's batting .128 in 39 ABs. Looks like he brought that Blue Jays magic over with him to the Reds lol. Edited April 22, 2024 by Jays24

[Eat My Shatkins]

Just checked how Espinal was doing and he's batting .128 with 39 ABs. Looks like he brought that Blue Jays magic over with him to the Reds lol.

 

Merrifield is even worse and the Philles paid him $15 million. Lucky for them year two is a club option so they won't have to pay the full amount.

[Orgfiller]

all things being equal, if Manoah can actually return and YRod goes to the pen, then who leaves? Assuming Green can actually return on a reasonable schedule.

 

Assuming no injuries, most likely Pearson, Cabrera or Bowden Francis gets sent down and called up as necessary. Connor Cooke, Hagen Danner, Brendon Little, Mason Fluharty, Zach pop are other guys looking to make their presence known down there.

[Governator]

I mean, if Manoah every returned to form than it's a great problem to have.

 

Then again, I don't expect him to get out of the Ricky Romero downard spiral. Hope he proves us wrong.

[Terminator]

Assuming no injuries, most likely Pearson, Cabrera or Bowden Francis gets sent down and called up as necessary. Connor Cooke, Hagen Danner, Brendon Little, Mason Fluharty, Zach pop are other guys looking to make their presence known down there.

 

Yeah I could see Francis being optioned to keep him stretched out as a depth starter.

[Carlos Danger]

I would like to give my two cents reference Varsho.

 

As many of you know, Varsho was my man crush and I was extremely happy we acquired him last year. I was an adamant defender of Varsho last year, at least his other tangibles and intangibles he brought to the team. I did by the end become exasperated with his offensive production or lack of.

 

One of the theories I put out last season was that Varsho is the opposite of some on the team and 100% coachable, willing to please and do what ever the coaches said/say. This personality attribute as well as being a younger player coming to a new team, made Varsho very malleable.

 

My theory on his poor offensive performance vs his pre-Blue Jays offensive performance is that someone in our system had "f***ed him up", for lack of a more precise term.

 

I recall many on the board saying that hitting coaches and system philosophy and offensive coordinators and all that has nothing or very little to do with a hitters performance and is not to blame.

 

I would say the 2024 season to date is exhibit A. I mean what the hell else explains a history since the minors of X then an extreme outlier in 2023 and then back to X in 2024.

 

There did not appear to be an injury that would affect Varsho's offence in 2023.

 

I am going to double down and say we (the Blue Jays system/process in place in 2023) f***ed him up. We changed the process in 2024 and now we have the hitter Varsho has been.

 

Case closed. Judgment in favor of CD.

 

Edited April 22, 2024 by Carlos Danger

[glory]

I mean, if Manoah every returned to form than it's a great problem to have.

 

Then again, I don't expect him to get out of the Ricky Romero downard spiral. Hope he proves us wrong.

 

Yeah, I don't have an issue with Yariel's innings being limited given his circumstances and Manoah taking his spot, but Manoah actually has to be fixed for that to make any sense. That's a pretty scary thing to bank on. Hopefully they give him a few more AAA starts and if all goes well there, then they can make that move.