General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Jays24]

 

Offseason might not be loss folks. If we can just add 1 big bat to squeeze in between Bo and Vlad, we are cooking.

[G-Snarls]

Some projected standings have been recently released:

 

Fangraphs thinks we have a 48% chance to make the playoffs: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

PECOTA thinks we have a 64% chance. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

 

1. Yankees

2. Jays

3. Orioles

4. Rays

 

IDK about PECOTA.... 3rd place finish and 14 fewer wins for the Orioles compared to last year seems not right

[connorp]

1. Yankees

2. Jays

3. Orioles

4. Rays

 

IDK about PECOTA.... 3rd place finish and 14 fewer wins for the Orioles compared to last year seems not right

 

PECOTA deserves that gif of the cat typing on the keyboard

[Terminator]

1. Yankees

2. Jays

3. Orioles

4. Rays

 

IDK about PECOTA.... 3rd place finish and 14 fewer wins for the Orioles compared to last year seems not right

 

Fangraphs is even more harsh. Also has them in 3rd place but only winning 85 games instead of 87.

[Olerud363]

1. Yankees

2. Jays

3. Orioles

4. Rays

 

IDK about PECOTA.... 3rd place finish and 14 fewer wins for the Orioles compared to last year seems not right

 

I'm a big Orioles believer because of their greatest prospects ever and greatest GM ever (lol)

 

However they had more wins last year than the run differential, and the run differential was better then the underlying stats. Their older players are projected to regress a little.

 

And the young players aren't projected for anything amazing.

 

Like Jackson Holliday, who will eventually be the greatest player ever is only projected average this year.

[deanmike]

 

Offseason might not be loss folks. If we can just add 1 big bat to squeeze in between Bo and Vlad, we are cooking.

 

Definitely do not assume that "money to spend" means "big bat level money to spend."

 

Assuming it is true that Vlad lost his arb case, Jays have roughly 8.5M remaining under the 2nd tax threshold. AAVs of Espinal, Garcia and Richards can free up another 10.8M roughly combined if Jays feel like those 3 can be adequately replaced by cheaper depth options and ship them out.

[Terminator]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/six-takeaways-from-our-2024-playoff-odds-release/

 

Jays win total seems really low but the following explanation makes it make more sense:

 

We have the Jays as the seventh-best team in baseball, but think they’ll win the 12th-most games.

[burlingtonbandit]

Don't think Shapiro ever claimed or promised they would build a great farm system. His comment about "waves of prospects" can be interpreted differently. Every decent MLB team needs a consistent pipeline but that doesn't mean they ever need an elite farm system, necessarily. There are a number of consistently successful teams that rarely have great farm systems.

 

Shapiro's criticism of AA was mostly based on the over-aggressive path to building that led to the required rebuild from 2017 on. I think Atkins and Shapiro believe Toronto has the resources to never need to enter a full rebuild.

 

Say what you want about the last few years, which have of course had disappointing results on the whole, but they have avoided horrible long term commitments while remaining competitive. Springer's deal is up after 2026, and Berrios' deal while it runs through 2028 is not bad at all considering his 2023 resurgence and his age (not old!). Gausman is a big asset right now on his contract.

 

Lot of focus on the Vlad/Bo window but even if these guys walk, that just means that Toronto will have like $42.5M in freed up payroll space after 2025 to court a huge free agent or two. Also, Bassitt ($22M), Green ($10.5M), IKF ($7.5M), Romano (Arb3), Mayza and Swanson are off the books after 2025 if not extended, so lots of money will be freed up. Also Turner and Kikuchi and KK and Yimi and Jansen and Richards ($47M) freed up after this season, we will see how much of that is recommitted in 2025 to arb raises and free agents.

 

Teams go down the tubes when they have sandbag commitments or dead money, and a s***** farm. Toronto has a middling farm system right now but the financial outlook at the MLB level is pretty solid, IMO, in a long term sense. So if they keep spending money intelligently, year over year, there aren't a lot of worries.

 

The farm system could tread water, Vlad and Bo could walk after 2025, and Toronto could still compete in 2026. It's a distinct possibility. One big free agent replaces Bo... a waiver claim 1B replaces Vladdy based on his 2023 performance.

 

Actually developing some elite prospect talent would certainly help take the team from an 88-92 win team to that 98+ win team everybody wants, though.

 

I mean Shapiro has been a big proponent in building a quality farm system and said as much publicly which most would interpret as him saying they would build a great one. If the Jays keep running a 230-250M payroll they should be a playoff contender year after year. Even with a bad farm system that should be quite attainable. I'm saying I wouldn't call making the playoffs with 88 Wins in a 3 team wildcard format much of an achievement if you are running a payroll that large.

 

And while all those players hitting FA the next couple years does free up money they also are providing value that exceeds their cost. And when you combine that with the below average farm you get that "Meh" outlook. That being said if they can do what the Rangers did and sign a star FA in Seager, well it becomes a lot easier to see a path to contention.

 

I do think last year's disappointing season and the offseason so far adds some bias to the future outlook. Come May if Kirk or Varsho have a 135wRC+ or Vladdy looks like 2021 the excitement would jump right back up.

[Stangstag]

I'm a big Orioles believer because of their greatest prospects ever and greatest GM ever (lol)

 

However they had more wins last year than the run differential, and the run differential was better then the underlying stats. Their older players are projected to regress a little.

 

And the young players aren't projected for anything amazing.

 

Like Jackson Holliday, who will eventually be the greatest player ever is only projected average this year.

 

Yeah Orioles were one of those perfect storm teams last year that managed to comeback from almost every defecit and win a bunch of games by 1 run. That doesn’t normally happen 2 years in a row, especially after losing a guy like Bautista. Even Cano regressed in a big way near the end of the season.

 

Sure they added Burnes, who is great. But overall their rotation is still hot garbage. Grayson is a wildcard as much as Manoah is. Kimbrel kinda sucks. Their lineup is solid but im not as certain as others that Holliday will come up and light things up. They’re kinda due for one of their big prospects to fail.

[burlingtonbandit]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/six-takeaways-from-our-2024-playoff-odds-release/

 

Jays win total seems really low but the following explanation makes it make more sense:

 

 

Welcome to the AL East...

 

Its good think the schedule is more balanced than it was too because if it was the old format it would be even tougher. The Orioles are only going to continue to get better as well, same with the Red Sox in future years. I think that's also why last year was so frustrating as a down year by both the Yankees and Red Sox was a prime opportunity for the Jays.

[Stangstag]

Welcome to the AL East...

 

Its good think the schedule is more balanced than it was too because if it was the old format it would be even tougher. The Orioles are only going to continue to get better as well, same with the Red Sox in future years. I think that's also why last year was so frustrating as a down year by both the Yankees and Red Sox was a prime opportunity for the Jays.

 

They made the playoffs. They blew it. Doesn’t really matter that the Sox/Yanks had down years, Jays couldn’t beat the damn Twins in a 3-game series.

[JaysAllMighty]

They made the playoffs. They blew it. Doesn’t really matter that the Sox/Yanks had down years, Jays couldn’t beat the damn Twins in a 3-game series.

 

 

Turner is going to fix that.

[burlingtonbandit]

Yeah Orioles were one of those perfect storm teams last year that managed to comeback from almost every defecit and win a bunch of games by 1 run. That doesn’t normally happen 2 years in a row, especially after losing a guy like Bautista. Even Cano regressed in a big way near the end of the season.

 

Sure they added Burnes, who is great. But overall their rotation is still hot garbage. Grayson is a wildcard as much as Manoah is. Kimbrel kinda sucks. Their lineup is solid but im not as certain as others that Holliday will come up and light things up. They’re kinda due for one of their big prospects to fail.

 

I wouldn't call their rotation hot garbage lol.

 

Burnes is a legit 1

Grayson has the stuff of a legit 1 projects to be around 3 WAR which seems about right.

Bradish certainly isn't a 2.83 ERA guy but 2.5 WAR seems about right.

Kremer as a number 4 is fine. I could see a bit of regression here.

Means health certainly is a wildcard but not many teams have a good number 5.

 

Also I think Adley behind the dish is a difference maker that doesn't get talked about enough. It seemed as soon as they called him up in 2022 their pitching become a lot better.

[Stangstag]

I wouldn't call their rotation hot garbage lol.

 

Burnes is a legit 1

Grayson has the stuff of a legit 1 projects to be around 3 WAR which seems about right.

Bradish certainly isn't a 2.83 ERA guy but 2.5 WAR seems about right.

Kremer as a number 4 is fine. I could see a bit of regression here.

Means health certainly is a wildcard but not many teams have a good number 5.

 

Also I think Adley behind the dish is a difference maker that doesn't get talked about enough. It seemed as soon as they called him up in 2022 their pitching become a lot better.

 

Adley definitely seems like the catalyst for that team.

[deanmike]

Nvm ******** Vlad won his case as expected

[Jonn]

Vlad won his arbitration hearing lmao. No words.

[Jays24]

Being on the cover of MLB the Show was too much to overcome lol

[bluejaysinternNo5]

I honestly think there is mass psychosis regarding Vlad. I don’t think I’ve seen this much fanfare for a s***** player ever.

[Jonn]

Vladdy isn’t s***. But I wish he was half as good as people in the general media thinks he is.

[Daniel Labude]

 

If true I am about to become the biggest Shatkins fan on this board.

Won't get fooled again....

[Krylian]

Vlad won his arbitration hearing lmao. No words.

 

94 Rs BI

[max silver]

94 Rs BI

 

It sounds like arbitration hearings still largely rely on traditional stats and Vlad's were still decent last season.

[JaysAllMighty]

Vladdy incoming trade

[John_Havok]

Vlad won his arbitration hearing lmao. No words.

 

If you look at the totality of his work from year 0 to now, with comparables, the MVP #2 amd the Gold glove, given the way these things are decided, it was an easy win for him honestly.

 

To all those who were taken in by random weirdos on Twitter “hearing” things….oops.

[WryNGinger]

Disappointed he won simply because he needs to learn some humility and focus on getting in better shape and listen to his coaches. (and STOP with the f***ing ice baths!)

[Brownie19]

I mean is contending for a wildcard birth that impressive in the 3 team wildcard era? Especially when you have a payroll over 200M? I agree had the Jays won some playoff games the fans feelings towards the FO would be better, at the same time if you judge the entire Ross Atkins tenure to date the team has only made the playoffs 3 times. (If you want to say 2021 team was good enough, I agree but at the same time counting 2020 the team wasn't that good and it was a shortened season). And while the playoffs is a lot of luck, the reality is the team hasn't won one single game. 2022 the team was pretty good and going into the postseason and I think fans were hoping to beat the Mariners but knew they weren't one of the best teams on "paper". Last year everyone knew that Jays team was flawed and it had to been one of the least liked Jays teams I can remember.

 

And then when you combine that with the team's below average farm system and Vladdy and Bo's impending FA status, you're just left with this "Meh" feeling surrounding the franchise.

 

Is making the playoffs 3 times in the last 4 years (while missing the 1 year by 1 win) impressive? Yes, I think it is. I've been a Jays fan since 92/93 and have watched them miss the playoffs in 24 of 26 seasons, prior to this recent run from 2020-2023. You can undersell the wild card all you want, but you just need to get in. Honest question - do people downplay the wild card teams in the NFL? I don't think they do like some dismiss it here.

 

Technicality, but the team has been to the playoffs 4 times under Atkins (you're forgetting 2016) and nobody in their right mind expected them to compete in 2017-2019 given the team they inherited. The f***ing guy is 1-2 wins away from making the playoffs in every single season you could reasonably expect them to - yet people want him fired. It's a joke.

 

I also think it's unfair to discount 2020 - it's not like Ross has any control over that. The team made it, end of story.

Edited February 8, 2024 by Brownie19

[Key22]

If the Jays are out of it by the deadline, can you see them trading Vlad if he is putting up strong numbers?

[Jonn]

If you look at the totality of his work from year 0 to now, with comparables, the MVP #2 amd the Gold glove, given the way these things are decided, it was an easy win for him honestly.

 

To all those who were taken in by random weirdos on Twitter “hearing” things….oops.

 

2 consecutive seasons of regression should hold some weight in arbitration. His salary was already jumping regardless it didn't need to jump to 19.9.

 

Just not a fan of the process. 2021 should not set his value when 22 and 23 he didn't even resemble that player.

[Jonn]

If the Jays are out of it by the deadline, can you see them trading Vlad if he is putting up strong numbers?

 

That entirely depends on the plan to commit to him long term. He has made it clear he wants to stay. However last 2 seasons they are likely hesitant to extend him at the numbers his agent is probably asking for. I don't think the Jays save any money signing him now opposed to later unless he games ape s*** again in one of the next 2 seasons. Which honestly we all hope he does. He's only 24 but he hasn't warranted a big time extension unless it was very team friendly.

[Brownie19]

2 consecutive seasons of regression should hold some weight in arbitration. His salary was already jumping regardless it didn't need to jump to 19.9.

 

Just not a fan of the process. 2021 should not set his value when 22 and 23 he didn't even resemble that player.

 

Agreed. I really don't understand how this system works. We seemingly judge the value of a player like it's 1996 (RBI's, Gold Gloves, etc.) and poor seasons don't seem to hold much weight.