General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[L54]

Narrative is crumbling

 

Elite defense - Laika says NO

Offseason isn’t over, we have money to spend - BNS says NO

 

At least we have a good bullpen! Didn’t have that to begin 2023

[wilko]

Narrative is crumbling

 

Elite defense - Laika says NO

Offseason isn’t over, we have money to spend - BNS says NO

 

At least we have a good bullpen! Didn’t have that to begin 2023

 

In Jay Jackson we trust! Oh wait..

[burlingtonbandit]

I didn't personally see anything to indicate that Schneider was below average at second base last season. The metrics back up my eye test as well with an even 0 DRS, 5.0 UZR/150 and 3 OAA in 182 innings of work. His arm strength is rather low but plays just fine at second base.

 

I thought his range wasn't that good from what I saw but admittedly I didn't watch every inning. He looked really bad in what I say from him at 3rd base so perhaps theres bias from that and that we don't really have any minor league scouting reports about the defense since he wasn't considered a prospect before last season. Hopefully he can be a passable defender at 2nd and can continue hitting because him being a 3WAR everyday 2nd baseman would really help the Blue Jays outlook going forward.

[L54]

In Jay Jackson we trust! Oh wait..

 

Can’t keep em all

 

In IKF we trust

[Terminator]

You’re not wrong. Everyone says well Vlad and Varsho and Kirk and so and so will bounce back… but nobody seems to think that it’s possible other players are worse than last year

 

Well if anyone thinks that they are dumn.

 

These guys are projected to be better:

Vlad +3.2 WAR

Kirk +1.6

Manoah +1.2

Springer +0.8

Varsho +0.6

Espinal +0.9

Bichette +0.4

 

These guys are projected to be worse:

Kiermaier -1.0 WAR

Gausman -1.0

Berrios -0.7

Kikuchi -0.4

Bassitt -0.2

 

We also lost Chapman (3.5 WAR) and Belt (2.2) and replaced them with IKF (0.9) and Turner (0.7). That is definitely a downgrade but Chapman had some of the worst WPA/clutch/RISP numbers in the league. He was just unlucky but if that normalizes with IKF, whose projection is getting dinged by the Yanks playing him in the OF last year, there might not be as much of a results based drop-off as we think. Turner projects to be better than Belt whose WAR was built on a house of cards.

 

Everyone else is somewhat the same. And it's hard to do a straight comparison because Schneider obviously won't put up 2 WAR in 35 games but he does project for 2 WAR over 100. Paul DeJong put up -1 WAR in 10 games and won't be here. Things like that.

[Brownie19]

Projected 3.2. What’s your prediction?

 

Like if you bet on above or below 2.9 improvement?

 

I suspect the probability of Vlad being a 4 WAR+ player this year are over 50%. There's probably an 85% chance he's above 3 WAR.

[burlingtonbandit]

I read that the Jays have Schneider for that role as is.

 

Even BNS article says the Jays should look at targeting a RHH corner OFer. As of right now you could go:

 

LF Schneider

3B Turner

2B Espinal

1B Vladdy

 

Or have Turner DH with IKF at 3rd but it seems like such a low cost to sign a Tommy Pham and then you could have Schneider play 2nd/Espinal at 3rd with Turner DHing. Hell you could even have Schneider still play LF and Springer slide to CF with RHH playing RF and you wouldn't have to start KK/Varsho.

 

Also provides injury insurance/depth in the OF which I think is overlooked given KK, Springer and Turner's age (Turner not playing the OF but Springer will have DH days as well)

[Terminator]

Not by much, I guess the main point is that the defense wasn't even elite in 2023. It was... worse than the offense? Compared to the league. lol

 

Well we won the Team Fielding Gold Glove award in the AL, for whatever that is worth. But that is backed up by the metrics. DRS had us at +85, good for first in all of MLB, and the 2nd place team (MIL) was 17 runs behind us.

[burlingtonbandit]

Well if anyone thinks that they are dumn.

 

These guys are projected to be better:

Vlad +3.2 WAR

Kirk +1.6

Manoah +1.2

Springer +0.8

Varsho +0.6

Espinal +0.9

Bichette +0.4

 

These guys are projected to be worse:

Kiermaier -1.0 WAR

Gausman -1.0

Berrios -0.7

Kikuchi -0.4

Bassitt -0.2

 

We also lost Chapman (3.5 WAR) and Belt (2.2) and replaced them with IKF (0.9) and Turner (0.7). That is definitely a downgrade but Chapman had some of the worst WPA/clutch/RISP numbers in the league. He was just unlucky but if that normalizes with IKF, whose projection is getting dinged by the Yanks playing him in the OF last year, there might not be as much of a results based drop-off as we think. Turner projects to be better than Belt whose WAR was built on a house of cards.

 

Everyone else is somewhat the same. And it's hard to do a straight comparison because Schneider obviously won't put up 2 WAR in 35 games but he does project for 2 WAR over 100. Paul DeJong put up -1 WAR in 10 games and won't be here. Things like that.

 

Probably just easier to look at the team's projections against other teams instead of looking at this year vs last year etc..

 

Not sure how accurate it is but Fangraphs in their 2024 projected standings page has them as the 8th best team in baseball (however 4th in AL East) at a .524 Win% (85 Wins). If the Jays are "done" for the offseason then they probably fall down a bit as well given there is still quite a few FA still out there.

[Terminator]

Probably just easier to look at the team's projections against other teams instead of looking at this year vs last year etc..

 

Not sure how accurate it is but Fangraphs in their 2024 projected standings page has them as the 8th best team in baseball (however 4th in AL East) at a .524 Win% (85 Wins). If the Jays are "done" for the offseason then they probably fall down a bit as well given there is still quite a few FA still out there.

 

Def easier but I'm trying to drill down to be more specific. Too much "Vlad and Kirk will be better" and too much "the pitching will be worse".

[Laika]

Well we won the Team Fielding Gold Glove award in the AL, for whatever that is worth. But that is backed up by the metrics. DRS had us at +85, good for first in all of MLB, and the 2nd place team (MIL) was 17 runs behind us.

 

DRS #1

UZR #4

OAA #10

 

I think when you go through the players and just think about them critically, common sense lines up more with OAA. Like, you've got Bo Bichette, a fringe-average SS, an old right fielder, a meatball catcher, and Chris Farley at first base... yeah KK and Varsho are studs and Chapman was still really good but that doesn't seem like best in class total defense to me.

[L54]

Well if anyone thinks that they are dumn.

 

These guys are projected to be better:

Vlad +3.2 WAR

Kirk +1.6

Manoah +1.2

Springer +0.8

Varsho +0.6

Espinal +0.9

Bichette +0.4

 

These guys are projected to be worse:

Kiermaier -1.0 WAR

Gausman -1.0

Berrios -0.7

Kikuchi -0.4

Bassitt -0.2

 

We also lost Chapman (3.5 WAR) and Belt (2.2) and replaced them with IKF (0.9) and Turner (0.7). That is definitely a downgrade but Chapman had some of the worst WPA/clutch/RISP numbers in the league. He was just unlucky but if that normalizes with IKF, whose projection is getting dinged by the Yanks playing him in the OF last year, there might not be as much of a results based drop-off as we think. Turner projects to be better than Belt whose WAR was built on a house of cards.

 

Everyone else is somewhat the same. And it's hard to do a straight comparison because Schneider obviously won't put up 2 WAR in 35 games but he does project for 2 WAR over 100. Paul DeJong put up -1 WAR in 10 games and won't be here. Things like that.

 

IKF’s projections are not changing much whether or not he played OF or SS. Add .5 if you want I guess but it’s marginal in the grand scheme of things

[Terminator]

DRS #1

UZR #4

OAA #10

 

I think when you go through the players and just think about them critically, common sense lines up more with OAA. Like, you've got Bo Bichette, a fringe-average SS, an old right fielder, a meatball catcher, and Chris Farley at first base... yeah KK and Varsho are studs and Chapman was still really good but that doesn't seem like best in class total defense to me.

 

Ok, maybe we didn't have the best defense in MLB but it's in the conversation. A #10 OAA doesn't exactly tank the idea anyway. Still upper third to go with excellent numbers on the other two metrics.

 

Not sure I agree with the common sense descriptions either. I'll give you Bo and Chris Farley (both in stature and his slapstick comedy in the field). But it's more accurate to call Springer an old centerfielder playing RF. He's still pretty fast and grades out just fine in RF. Catcher is a meatball but that meatball frame allows him to be the best in the biz at blocking baseballs. He's also a good framer (below average arm though).

 

All told the defense is good! Trust me and the numbers. Not your lying eyes.

[Laika]

Even BNS article says the Jays should look at targeting a RHH corner OFer. As of right now you could go:

 

LF Schneider

3B Turner

2B Espinal

1B Vladdy

 

Or have Turner DH with IKF at 3rd but it seems like such a low cost to sign a Tommy Pham and then you could have Schneider play 2nd/Espinal at 3rd with Turner DHing. Hell you could even have Schneider still play LF and Springer slide to CF with RHH playing RF and you wouldn't have to start KK/Varsho.

 

Also provides injury insurance/depth in the OF which I think is overlooked given KK, Springer and Turner's age (Turner not playing the OF but Springer will have DH days as well)

 

RHH OF Free Agents who project for positive WAR:

 

Soler (DH)

Pham

Taylor

Merrifield

Kike

Profar (Switch)

Anderson, Brian

Grichuk

Duvall

Lewis (DH)

Grossman (Switch)

 

I hate most of these players. I like Pham and Taylor but they are probably looking for $10M and a starting role somewhere.

 

Wonder how small of a contract some of them might sign though... Grossman made $2M last year. Maybe Toronto ends up spending $2M or $3M on one of these bums.

 

Brian Anderson has a certain allure, because he owns a 3B glove. Same with Kike I guess.

[burlingtonbandit]

RHH OF Free Agents who project for positive WAR:

 

Soler (DH)

Pham

Taylor

Merrifield

Kike

Profar (Switch)

Anderson, Brian

Grichuk

Duvall

Lewis (DH)

Grossman (Switch)

 

I hate most of these players. I like Pham and Taylor but they are probably looking for $10M and a starting role somewhere.

 

Wonder how small of a contract some of them might sign though... Grossman made $2M last year. Maybe Toronto ends up spending $2M or $3M on one of these bums.

 

Brian Anderson has a certain allure, because he owns a 3B glove. Same with Kike I guess.

 

Those 2, Grichuk, Duvall and Grossman would certainly be upgrades on this roster IMO. Not having a Luplow/Lukes see PA is an upgrade in itself not to mention would provide depth in an area the Jays don't have much of.

[Terminator]

Kike used to be a GREAT bench player. Has sucked the last two years but a lot of that seems to be due to injury. He had double hernia surgery this offseason. I'd need to know more about his health situation but he's the type of guy you sign and he bounces back and puts up 2.5 WAR.

 

Brian Anderson is a weird player. Looked like he might turn into a cornerstone player but has drifted into a barely serviceable bench player. I'd also be interested in him though for some reason he hits righties much, much better than lefties in his career. I know that unregressed splits but even if you regress them it looks weird still.

[wamco]

What is the absolute most you would give up

For Adames?

[Eat My Shatkins]

What is the absolute most you would give up

For Adames?

 

Manoah

[Jonn]

What is the absolute most you would give up

For Adames?

 

He’s a rental and everyone knows both sides would like to move on. They aren’t getting any top prospects for him. They might get a couple of a B prospects at the absolute most.

 

It would be like Barger and another decent prospect and a lottery ticket.

[wamco]

Go ahead and name them man

[Terminator]

Josh H. Smith could be a good trade target. He's blocked in Texas with seemingly all infield and outfield spots accounted for AND Ezequiel Duran higher on the pecking order for a UT spot too. He's played pretty poorly in parts of two seasons so far but he is a former Top 100 prospect and the defense has graded out very well in both the infield and outfield. Bats lefty.

 

Duran would also be a good target for 3B but he'd probably cost a lot more.

[Jimcanuck]

Can Tim Anderson play 3B

[jaysblue]

What is the absolute most you would give up

For Adames?

 

Spanky

[L54]

What is the absolute most you would give up

For Adames?

 

Orelvis and some filler

[deanmike]

 

LOL Kool Aid King Black is huffing that copium. He doesn't want to believe the offseason is over because it makes his Kool Aid harder to push.

[L54]

They aren’t getting Adames for Espinal and Horowitz lol

 

Ya I’d offer the brewers Ryan Goins and Chris Collabello

[Laika]

Brewers would need a solid prospect for Adames, or at least two 45 FV types.

 

He's nowhere near Burnes in value (doesn't have the upside) but he is solid.

 

Schneider straight up is close.

 

Kendry Rojas + Brandon Barriera is a prospect example.

 

Horwitz + Barger, third example more MLB ready package.

 

Manoah straight up works too but lol.

[Jonn]

I want this one. Adames would be a huge pickup. Can’t move Bo off SS but you try to get Adames in at SS as often as possible by DHing Bo more, and he can just play 3B. Gives us power and defense. Seems to love Toronto as well according to his instagram. Get it done Shatkins.

[Rimar]

I won't be surprised if Atkins will start trading Vlad, Bo and other of our best pitchers at end of the season, for prospects and low cost players. This can explain why he just offered 1 year contact to Turner and KK. Almost sure he can have easily get Joc , Soler or Bellinger if offered multi years contracts. And to have make 700 millions offer to Ohtani, in fact won't have cost so much to Rogers sign him , because just with new sponsors from Japan, will have paid Ohtani salary. So it's possible Rogers don't want to spend too much this year and next, until their deal with NHL end or want cut payroll for the next few years, because of the recent renovations at Rogers stadium.

[Rimar]

Won't be a surprise to see Baltimore, Yankees, Texas, Houston, Seattle, Tampa Bay and one amongst Cleveland/Minnesota, ahead of Toronto for wildcard race. We lack 3B, OF, and 2B is filled with bench players like Biggio, IKF, Schneider, Espinal . And I am no sure if Turner will be a upgrade to Belt as DH.