General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[John_Havok]

I have a habit of carrying water for Mr. Ross Atkins but I would guess that they've tried a little bit more than that

 

Vlad doesn't exactly strike me as the type of player who is receptive to hitting instruction

 

Some even thought the Jays hitting issues last year were caused in part by having TOO MANY COOKS on the hitting side. Some of those cooks have been younger guys or nerds. They had a Rays style nerd coach.

 

Yeah it's hard to leg Vlad's openness to coaching. On one hand, he clearly took advice on things between 2020 and 2021...but then got worse in the two seasons following. So...one could reasonable fall on 1 of 3 scenarios ...

 

Either he never actually took any advice prior to 2021 and succeeded inspite of that, then continued to change nothing and subsequently got worse, or

 

He did take advice prior to 2021 then rested on his laurels and stopped taking advice and subsequently got worse..or

 

He continued to seek advice after 2021 but got the advice was horribly wrong and he got worse.

 

Injury could have also played a role in the worsening outcomes regardless of whether he did or didn't take advice in any of those years

[MikeM3]

I have a habit of carrying water for Mr. Ross Atkins but I would guess that they've tried a little bit more than that

 

Vlad doesn't exactly strike me as the type of player who is receptive to hitting instruction

 

Some even thought the Jays hitting issues last year were caused in part by having TOO MANY COOKS on the hitting side. Some of those cooks have been younger guys or nerds. They had a Rays style nerd coach.

 

The turnover in coaching signals that there isn't an effective system in place. Ross is literally admitting it by bringing all these different guys in. Now Mattingly seems like the top guy and we also added Hague from AAA. And we still have Martinez.

 

Hudgens is long gone but he seemed like an idiot.

 

This is all to say that it's great to have talent on the roster and it's also great if you can find it at the mlb level, which Ross does, but alot of the GMs job nowadays is to put literal scientists in place throughout every step of the organization.

 

70 FVs like Vlad can get beat nowadays by pitchers who are coached well.

 

In the early 2000s he would rake with a plate of Doritos on his lap.

 

Also I have a suspicion he raked during covid, not because of Buffalo, but because everyone's processes were disrupted and it was more backyard baseball.

[Brownie19]

Recency bias! 3 years out of 4 should be ignored. Projections say he is an absolute beast next year

 

Are you suggesting GM's shouldn't be using projections when constructing their teams? They should only look at actual results from previous years?

[Brownie19]

It's very comparable to most of the contenders. Definitely not elite like the Braves or Dodgers but last year we had a higher wRC+ than the Phillies and Orioles, for example. And that was with half the team hitting like complete ass.

 

The bottom of the Jays lineup isn't very impressive from an offensive perspective. The team is clearly built on pitching and defense. That said, you're correct that the bottom of the lineup for most teams, even contenders, are often full of guys who are at, just above or just below league average at the plate.

 

Bottom of the Phillies lineup, with Steamer wRC+ projections in brackets:

 

Stott (100)

Bohm (107)

Marsh (98)

Rojas (83)

 

Orioles:

 

Mullins (103)

Hays (105)

O'Hearn (105)

Westburg (107)/Urias (95)

Mateo (82) - unless Jackson Holliday starts

 

Even the Dodgers (greatest team ever created on paper):

 

Teo (110)

Outman (103)

Lux (109)

Heyward (101) / Taylor (91) / Margot (99)

 

Jays:

 

Varsho (106)

Schneider (113) / Biggio (99)

KK (91)

IKF (89)

 

There is little doubt the Jays offense is only going to go as far as the stars take it. As of right now, our offense is probably 7th-12th overall, based on the expectation that we get bounce back years from Springer, Kirk and Vlad (whom are all projected to do so). If we're going to become a Top 5 offense, we're going to also a couple of guys to breakout or overperform. That would likely be Bo, Jansen, Varsho or Schneider.

[Laika]

The turnover in coaching signals that there isn't an effective system in place. Ross is literally admitting it by bringing all these different guys in. Now Mattingly seems like the top guy and we also added Hague from AAA. And we still have Martinez.

 

Hudgens is long gone but he seemed like an idiot.

 

This is all to say that it's great to have talent on the roster and it's also great if you can find it at the mlb level, which Ross does, but alot of the GMs job nowadays is to put literal scientists in place throughout every step of the organization.

 

70 FVs like Vlad can get beat nowadays by pitchers who are coached well.

 

In the early 2000s he would rake with a plate of Doritos on his lap.

 

Also I have a suspicion he raked during covid, not because of Buffalo, but because everyone's processes were disrupted and it was more backyard baseball.

 

I can't disagree much with this

 

The Jays clearly are not excelling at some of this internal, systemic s***. You can see this in various facets. High performance at the MLB level, gameplan execution, communication, development.

[wamco]

Are you suggesting GM's shouldn't be using projections when constructing their teams? They should only look at actual results from previous years?

 

I’m saying I wouldn’t stake my job on them.

As in, i wouldn’t sit pat if money is there and pass on acquiring more talent simply because the projections say to expect much better performance than you are currently getting.

Like last season (if money was there, I don’t know if it was)

 

Last year: 1st “half” vs 2nd “half” rc+ and projected 2024 rc+

 

Vlad 118/117. 139

Springer 109/97. 113

 

We waited all season for them to break out as the projections said they would. But they didn’t .

 

On the positive side, some did:

 

Kirk 77/118. 116

Varsho 77/97 106

 

Bo , 1st half, was probably overachieving a bit , but maybe not

 

132/109 123

 

 

Hopefully all of vlad, springer, varsho and kirk play up to potential this year and stay healthy. If they do, run scoring isn’t going to be an issue.

[wamco]

Zips 3 year projected WAR fwiw

 

Kirk 3.4/2.9/3

Vlad 3.2/2.9/2.7

Biggio 1.1/.9/.8

Bo 4.3/3.8/3.3

IKF .7/.3/.1

Springer 2.9/1.8/1.2

Varsho 2.3/2.1/2

Kk 2/1.5/1.1

Turner 2/1/.4

Jansen 2.3/2/1.9

[Spanky99]

lol

[John_Havok]

The bottom of the Jays lineup isn't very impressive from an offensive perspective. The team is clearly built on pitching and defense. That said, you're correct that the bottom of the lineup for most teams, even contenders, are often full of guys who are at, just above or just below league average at the plate.

 

Bottom of the Phillies lineup, with Steamer wRC+ projections in brackets:

 

Stott (100)

Bohm (107)

Marsh (98)

Rojas (83)

 

Orioles:

 

Mullins (103)

Hays (105)

O'Hearn (105)

Westburg (107)/Urias (95)

Mateo (82) - unless Jackson Holliday starts

 

Even the Dodgers (greatest team ever created on paper):

 

Teo (110)

Outman (103)

Lux (109)

Heyward (101) / Taylor (91) / Margot (99)

 

Jays:

 

Varsho (106)

Schneider (113) / Biggio (99)

KK (91)

IKF (89)

 

There is little doubt the Jays offense is only going to go as far as the stars take it. As of right now, our offense is probably 7th-12th overall, based on the expectation that we get bounce back years from Springer, Kirk and Vlad (whom are all projected to do so). If we're going to become a Top 5 offense, we're going to also a couple of guys to breakout or overperform. That would likely be Bo, Jansen, Varsho or Schneider.

 

How about dem Braves?

[John_Havok]

I can't disagree much with this

 

The Jays clearly are not excelling at some of this internal, systemic s***. You can see this in various facets. High performance at the MLB level, gameplan execution, communication, development.

 

If I had to guess, I'd say it's almost like they want all the guys to be similar hitters rather than focusing on what makes each hitter great and just limiting the flaws.

[Laika]

If I had to guess, I'd say it's almost like they want all the guys to be similar hitters rather than focusing on what makes each hitter great and just limiting the flaws.

 

I think Atkins is just a beta so he has trouble recruiting strong/ambitious dudes. There is likely a lack of "top men" in the org. It takes some bravado to be cutting edge. You need to have conviction, take risks, etc.

 

My guess is Toronto is full of smart people but it probably has post-grad sports science conference vibes most of the time. They may not take enough risks, or something like that. Collecting nerds might not be enough to be elite in MLB. It might only be enough to be a top ~12 org or so. To be truly ELITE as an org you need be able to collect and hire the NERDS WITH THE BIGGEST MUSCLES. THE ALPHA NERDS.

[Brownie19]

If I had to guess, I'd say it's almost like they want all the guys to be similar hitters rather than focusing on what makes each hitter great and just limiting the flaws.

 

Surely this can't be true.

[Brownie19]

How about dem Braves?

 

Sorry, we're only evaluating teams on this planet.

[Olerud363]

 

Also I have a suspicion he raked during covid, not because of Buffalo, but because everyone's processes were disrupted and it was more backyard baseball.

 

His performance in minor league parks as both a teenage minor leaguer and a 22 year old is historic. You are probably right about the processes being disrupted. Could also be a mental issue with the second deck (in other words a mental issue the higher pressure of MLB, but during Covid it was more laid back). Whatever the case it's not park factors that made him hit in Dunedin/Buffalo.

[glory]

If I had to guess, I'd say it's almost like they want all the guys to be similar hitters rather than focusing on what makes each hitter great and just limiting the flaws.

 

That BA report on Barger gave me the same conclusion.

[metafour]

I think Atkins is just a beta so he has trouble recruiting strong/ambitious dudes. There is likely a lack of "top men" in the org. It takes some bravado to be cutting edge. You need to have conviction, take risks, etc.

 

My guess is Toronto is full of smart people but it probably has post-grad sports science conference vibes most of the time. They may not take enough risks, or something like that. Collecting nerds might not be enough to be elite in MLB. It might only be enough to be a top ~12 org or so. To be truly ELITE as an org you need be able to collect and hire the NERDS WITH THE BIGGEST MUSCLES. THE ALPHA NERDS.

 

This level of attempted pseudoscience psychology is getting to borderline retarded levels.

 

The fact that Ross Atkins wears glasses does not conclude that he is incapable of taking "risks" lmfao.

 

What is this even backed by, btw? Has Atkins not made more "blockbuster" trades in recent years than most teams in the league? Wasn't most of the complaining last year centered on the risk he took in trading Moreno for Varsho lol? In hindsight signing Springer to that deal was a pretty bad risk. Was it not a "risk" to spend so much time courting Ohtani, knowing that he was most likely just going to go to the Dodgers anyway?

[Laika]

This level of attempted pseudoscience psychology is getting to borderline retarded levels.

 

The fact that Ross Atkins wears glasses does not conclude that he is incapable of taking "risks" lmfao.

 

What is this even backed by, btw? Has Atkins not made more "blockbuster" trades in recent years than most teams in the league? Wasn't most of the complaining last year centered on the risk he took in trading Moreno for Varsho lol? In hindsight signing Springer to that deal was a pretty bad risk. Was it not a "risk" to spend so much time courting Ohtani, knowing that he was most likely just going to go to the Dodgers anyway?

 

Yeah that's the joke

 

way to ruin it

 

there is an element of truth to it though. how else to explain the dietary problems. you can build the best sports facility and cafeteria in the world but you don't have strong enough middle managers in place to tell your 95 IQ players to not eat so f***ing much?

[Terminator]

Are we sure that Atkins' on field performance team sucks?

 

I don't really seem to remember anyone saying much about it prior to 2023. I suppose a lot of people were posting about how he couldn't build a bullpen but after he built the best one in baseball those criticisms are now silent.

 

I'm not saying that it doesn't suck, it certainly could. But I would probably need to see another year of underperformance to confirm. Same thing for player development. This is a big year for Ross.

[Jays24]

I would agree with the Vlad hate if he were in the middle of a massive extension that's wasting a lot of organizational assets. The truth is that we've had him during his most affordable years and any blame on the team underperforming needs to be mostly on Shatkins.

 

It's extremely weird to have so many offensive players underperform at the same time. It's to the point that you feel it's an organizational/strategy issue where most guys cant follow through with whatever they're preaching.

 

It's hard to know one way or another from the outside but in the end, this is a results based industry. Most people don't give a f*** to hear about excuses. We just care about wins and losses.

 

Let's Go Blue Jays!

[Terminator]

I would agree with the Vlad hate if he were in the middle of a massive extension that's wasting a lot of organizational assets. The truth is that we've had him during his most affordable years and any blame on the team underperforming needs to be mostly on Shatkins.

 

It's extremely weird to have so many offensive players underperform at the same time. It's to the point that you feel it's an organizational/strategy issue where most guys cant follow through with whatever they're preaching.

 

It's hard to know one way or another from the outside but in the end, this is a results based industry. Most people don't give a f*** to hear about excuses. We just care about wins and losses.

 

Let's Go Blue Jays!

 

It was a weird season. Vlad, Springer, Varsho and Kirk sucked. But Belt and KK hit. Jansen hit. Biggio seemed to make himself rosterable after not hitting for the past couple of years. Schneider, Clement and Horwitz hit and saved the season.

 

So it's not like everyone sucked. It was just 4 out of our 5 best hitters lol. And I think that's probably what killed us. If the Espinal's don't hit it doesn't really matter but when your top bats don't it really hurts. This is a big year for the guys who struggled and if Atkins is going to stick around they will need to hit again.

[Laika]

Are we sure that Atkins and the Jays on field performance team sucks?

 

I don't really seem to remember anyone saying much about it prior to last season. I suppose a lot of people were posting about how he couldn't build a bullpen but after he built the best one in baseball those criticisms are now silent.

 

I'm not saying that it doesn't suck, it certainly could. But I would probably need to see another year of underperformance to confirm. Same thing for player development. This is a big year for Ross.

 

It's tough to know anything

 

The offense was bad at the group level in 2023, that's a red flag.

They have had issues developing elite prospects, that's a red flag.

They have had issues developing pitching of any variety and have largely been signing them, that's a red flag.

 

There are also some green flags over the recent years of course. Like, good at identifying the right free agents to sign and stuff like that. They've done some good worth with certain pitchers, like Kikuchi. The MiLB depth is underappreciated and is finally good and there is a thick group of relievers and infielders coming.

[Terminator]

It's tough to know anything

 

The offense was bad at the group level in 2023, that's a red flag.

They have had issues developing elite prospects, that's a red flag.

They have had issues developing pitching of any variety and have largely been signing them, that's a red flag.

 

There are also some green flags over the recent years of course. Like, good at identifying the right free agents to sign and stuff like that. They've done some good worth with certain pitchers, like Kikuchi. The MiLB depth is underappreciated and is finally good and there is a thick group of relievers and infielders coming.

 

Yeah and from what we've seen so far, MILB player development is definitely a bigger concern than onfield performance.

 

The onfield performance stuff revolves almost entirely around 3-4 hitters from last season. Heck, if Vlad alone played up to his standards the onfield performance stuff probably isn't even mentioned as a concern.

 

As for the player development, I think the MILB system had a good year so hopefully that continues to show improvement. A lot of non-prospects turned themselves into prospects which is good to see. Hopefully that continues but we also need to see more elite talent emerge.

[John_Havok]

Surely this can't be true.

 

I know, it makes no sense, but when you see multiple guys struggle offensively, and see the same trend in their batted ball profiles going from pull heavy to more centre/spray at the same time, it makes me wonder.

[Brownie19]

I know, it makes no sense, but when you see multiple guys struggle offensively, and see the same trend in their batted ball profiles going from pull heavy to more centre/spray at the same time, it makes me wonder.

 

I mean, in Moneyball, they were going around preaching to (seemingly) everyone that they should see more pitches, knock that starter out early, etc. So I guess it could happen. Moneyball is really the only insight I have in how teams may influence their players. Perhaps they kept showing them the numbers and the value of spreading the ball around and using an all-fields approach? It just seems so mind numbingly stupid that I can't believe it's true. Each player needs their own strategy, based on their abilities/skills.

[MikeM3]

I think Atkins is just a beta so he has trouble recruiting strong/ambitious dudes. There is likely a lack of "top men" in the org. It takes some bravado to be cutting edge. You need to have conviction, take risks, etc.

 

My guess is Toronto is full of smart people but it probably has post-grad sports science conference vibes most of the time. They may not take enough risks, or something like that. Collecting nerds might not be enough to be elite in MLB. It might only be enough to be a top ~12 org or so. To be truly ELITE as an org you need be able to collect and hire the NERDS WITH THE BIGGEST MUSCLES. THE ALPHA NERDS.

 

I thought bringing in Click was a ballsy move but that might have been Shapiro's doing.

 

I just think Atkins is a guy who is just smart enough to react to where the sport is going but not someone who can be ahead of it. And he's good at the mlb moves right in front of him.

 

Because he was an ex player after all. Not a true nerd. So I don't think he has that detached enough mentality where you can just question everything because you've never done it.

 

"Well s*** why wouldn't you just take BP off a machine throwing 100. All pitchers throw 100." - nerd who never played

[Gen.Disarray]

I would agree with the Vlad hate if he were in the middle of a massive extension that's wasting a lot of organizational assets. The truth is that we've had him during his most affordable years and any blame on the team underperforming needs to be mostly on Shatkins.

 

It's extremely weird to have so many offensive players underperform at the same time. It's to the point that you feel it's an organizational/strategy issue where most guys cant follow through with whatever they're preaching.

 

It's hard to know one way or another from the outside but in the end, this is a results based industry. Most people don't give a f*** to hear about excuses. We just care about wins and losses.

 

Let's Go Blue Jays!

 

 

If Vladdy were on a massive contract the hate would certainly be worse. But the issue is that, because of his reputation, it seems the team is unwilling to make the types of moves necessary to compete with the big boys.

 

Vladdy was supposed to be an elite player. Fair or not. Not good, elite. And the team is built as though he is. If he were anelite player the team around him would be good enough, I believe. Atkins believes he is an elite player and has built the team accordingly.

 

It wouldn't be a problem if he were an elite player. But not only is he not one, he's not even great. And he's not even very good. Is he a good player? I guess. Not a top 10 first baseman with bad defense, no base running and a low beisbol IQ. I mean is that good?

 

Whatever he is it's not good enough and people feel it every time the team doesn't make a strong run in the playoffs and he remains the teams "best " player season after crushing season.

[max silver]

If Vladdy were on a massive contract the hate would certainly be worse. But the issue is that, because of his reputation, it seems the team is unwilling to make the types of moves necessary to compete with the big boys.

 

Vladdy was supposed to be an elite player. Fair or not. Not good, elite. And the team is built as though he is. If he were anelite player the team around him would be good enough, I believe. Atkins believes he is an elite player and has built the team accordingly.

 

It wouldn't be a problem if he were an elite player. But not only is he not one, he's not even great. And he's not even very good. Is he a good player? I guess. Not a top 10 first baseman with bad defense, no base running and a low beisbol IQ. I mean is that good?

 

Whatever he is it's not good enough and people feel it every time the team doesn't make a strong run in the playoffs and he remains the teams "best " player season after crushing season.

 

The lack of other elite players wasn't for lack of trying at the very least. The front office has attempted to sign elite players in free agency including the likes of Cole, Seager, Semien and Ohtani but hasn't been able to convince them to sign on the dotted line. Trade attempts reportedly include the likes of Jose Ramirez and Juan Soto but the team wasn't able to line up in trade values to complete these deals either.

[Gen.Disarray]

The lack of other elite players wasn't for lack of trying at the very least. The front office has attempted to sign elite players in free agency including the likes of Cole, Seager, Semien and Ohtani but hasn't been able to convince them to sign on the dotted line. Trade attempts reportedly include the likes of Jose Ramirez and Juan Soto but the team wasn't able to line up in trade values to complete these deals either.

 

Absolutely, good point.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to bash the front office too hard here. They've made some big moves, big signings, and spent a ton of money. They are clearly trying. I'm just giving my take on what I believe the "Vald hate" is all about for some, maybe many, people.

[mphenhef]

Yeah it's hard to leg Vlad's openness to coaching. On one hand, he clearly took advice on things between 2020 and 2021...but then got worse in the two seasons following. So...one could reasonable fall on 1 of 3 scenarios ...

 

Either he never actually took any advice prior to 2021 and succeeded inspite of that, then continued to change nothing and subsequently got worse, or

 

He did take advice prior to 2021 then rested on his laurels and stopped taking advice and subsequently got worse..or

 

He continued to seek advice after 2021 but got the advice was horribly wrong and he got worse.

 

Injury could have also played a role in the worsening outcomes regardless of whether he did or didn't take advice in any of those years

 

I'd be interested to see Vlad's number when Dante Bichette was with the team versus when he isn't.

[wamco]

27.