AL Beasts of the East - Division Race '23

[Olerud363]

They'd be stupid, if they don't, I didn't even get their offseason.

 

They are on a level above everyone else so their offseason looks bad, but wasn't, it was decent.

 

Everyone complains about Kyle Gibson but he has 2.0 fWAR compared to Bassit at 1.2 and they only gave Gibson 1/6 the money commitment.

 

Adam Frazier only has 0.2 fWAR, but has 1.2 bWAR, and is a league average bat playing 2nd (fWAR dings his defense for some reason)

Whatever the truth about his value, the move was made considering their freak park where a left handed hitter may be way more valuable than a righty.

 

Anyway those 2 moves were the ones people complained about but are working out fine.

 

Grayson Rodriquez has an xFIP of 3.87 and insane minor league stats so maybe they'll just roll with him. Whatever they do they 'think' they are the smartest guys in the room (whether that is true or not we will see), so their trade deadline will be unconventional. They probably value their current starters and their prospects more than the board or the industry does and won't make moves that don't make sense to them.

[max silver]

They are on a level above everyone else so their offseason looks bad, but wasn't, it was decent.

 

Everyone complains about Kyle Gibson but he has 2.0 fWAR compared to Bassit at 1.2 and they only gave Gibson 1/6 the money commitment.

 

Adam Frazier only has 0.2 fWAR, but has 1.2 bWAR, and is a league average bat playing 2nd (fWAR dings his defense for some reason)

Whatever the truth about his value, the move was made considering their freak park where a left handed hitter may be way more valuable than a righty.

 

Anyway those 2 moves were the ones people complained about but are working out fine.

 

Grayson Rodriquez has an xFIP of 3.87 and insane minor league stats so maybe they'll just roll with him. Whatever they do they 'think' they are the smartest guys in the room (whether that is true or not we will see), so their trade deadline will be unconventional. They probably value their current starters and their prospects more than the board or the industry does and won't make moves that don't make sense to them.

 

Jesus man we all get that the Orioles are a solid team with a very bright future. The constant Orioles worship is honestly getting to be a bit much.

[Olerud363]

Everyone complains about Kyle Gibson but he has 2.0 fWAR compared to Bassit at 1.2 and they only gave Gibson 1/6 the money commitment.

 

Is there a flaw in fWAR where it considers home rate too much? I think so. So Gibson is probably not as good as his fWAR, on the other hand some of the other Baltimore starters might be dinged too much by fWAR based on higher homer rates, so in all their staff is OK, and perfect fit for a team with a killer bullpen. In the playoffs these guys will only have to go 4 or 5 innings.

 

Rodriquez especially. If his homerun rate goes down there they have their ace (on the other hand even if he starts performing he probably can't be trusted health wise for a deep run).

[Spanky99]

Is there a flaw in fWAR where it considers home rate too much? I think so. So Gibson is probably not as good as his fWAR, on the other hand some of the other Baltimore starters might be dinged too much by fWAR based on higher homer rates, so in all their staff is OK, and perfect fit for a team with a killer bullpen. In the playoffs these guys will only have to go 4 or 5 innings.

 

Rodriquez especially. If his homerun rate goes down there they have their ace (on the other hand even if he starts performing he probably can't be trusted health wise for a deep run).

 

I tend to look at bWAR for pitchers as it's not so dependant on FIP, or RA9 WAR. bWAR for position players sucks, as are the O's. so there's that.

[Brownie19]

Is there a flaw in fWAR where it considers home rate too much? I think so. So Gibson is probably not as good as his fWAR, on the other hand some of the other Baltimore starters might be dinged too much by fWAR based on higher homer rates, so in all their staff is OK, and perfect fit for a team with a killer bullpen. In the playoffs these guys will only have to go 4 or 5 innings.

 

Rodriquez especially. If his homerun rate goes down there they have their ace (on the other hand even if he starts performing he probably can't be trusted health wise for a deep run).

 

We'd have one in Kikuchi too if that happened.

[Spanky99]

Lol...

 

[Olerud363]

Jesus man we all get that the Orioles are a solid team with a very bright future. The constant Orioles worship is honestly getting to be a bit much.

 

 

The Tampa Bay Rays worship which went on for 15 years and is still on going was and is way worse.

 

Can anybody on this board just respond like a normal person? The Orioles have really executed every decision well since Elias took over but (some) on the board act like they are just a bunch of knuckleheads that lucked into 5 years of high picks.

 

They avoided the Druw Jones and Austin Martins of the world and so far nailed every high pick, they built an elite bullpen out of scraps, they are building a serviceable rotation on the cheap, they (perhaps) purposely extended their tank into the Covid years when revenues would have been down no matter what.

 

The thread is titles 'Beasts of the East' and the Orioles just moved into first. For gods sake, if that triggers you, then don't read the thread. You know you can avoid the 'Beasts of the Easts' thread, the day the Orioles move into first.

 

Wakes up...

 

Reads and Globe and Mail (or where-ever you get your news...)

 

Checks last nights scores (notices Orioles have moved into first...)

 

Then says "This does not please me. I will check Blue Jays message board but avoid the "Beasts of the East" thread as the Orioles are now the "Beast of the East" and I don't want to hear about it.

[max silver]

The Tampa Bay Rays worship which went on for 15 years and is still on going was and is way worse.

 

Can anybody on this board just respond like a normal person? The Orioles have really executed every decision well since Elias took over but (some) on the board act like they are just a bunch of knuckleheads that lucked into 5 years of high picks.

 

They avoided the Druw Jones and Austin Martins of the world and so far nailed every high pick, they built an elite bullpen out of scraps, they are building a serviceable rotation on the cheap, they (perhaps) purposely extended their tank into the Covid years when revenues would have been down no matter what.

 

The thread is titles 'Beasts of the East' and the Orioles just moved into first. For gods sake, if that triggers you, then don't read the thread. You know you can avoid the 'Beasts of the Easts' thread, the day the Orioles move into first.

 

Wakes up...

 

Reads and Globe and Mail (or where-ever you get your news...)

 

Checks last nights scores (notices Orioles have moved into first...)

 

Then says "This does not please me. I will check Blue Jays message board but avoid the "Beasts of the East" thread as the Orioles are now the "Beast of the East" and I don't want to hear about it.

 

You've gone full Oriole nutsack licker lately. I get it, they went scorched earth rebuild (likely forced into this due to the complete ineptitude of the previous front office and terrible ownership policy) but I don't see why you seem to spend so much of your posting time on here constantly pumping their tires.

[Olerud363]

We'd have one in Kikuchi too if that happened.

 

Right, but Kikuchi has been serviceable anyway.

 

Rodriquez is a lot younger than Kikuchi and has lights out minor league numbers, so it is maybe more likely his homer rate is a complete fluke as compared to Kikuchi.

 

And performance wise Rodriquez is more like Baltimore's Manoah, ERA so high he had to be sent down. Which one is a better bet to be a contributor rest of the way, Manoah or Rodriquez? Kind of think Toronto might move for a starter, and Baltimore might not, because when they crunch numbers Baltimore will believe in Rodriquez, but Toronto won't believe in Manoah... I guess their next 2 starts will be important.

[Olerud363]

You've gone full Oriole nutsack licker lately. I get it, they went scorched earth rebuild (likely forced into this due to the complete ineptitude of the previous front office and terrible ownership policy) but I don't see why you seem to spend so much of your posting time on here constantly pumping their tires.

 

 

The Orioles thus far don't have a single contributor on the team gained from years 3-5 of their losing cycle. Other than Adley Rutchman none of their players are a top 10 draft pick. Their current team is entirely built on developing older, less heralded draft picks (Mullins, Satlander, Hays) and smart pickups. And unlike the 2021-23 Jays they are doing it with a bottom 5 payroll. They get no credit for this at all.

 

What's going to happen when all the picks start contributing and (if) the payroll goes up?

 

Your narrative is false because your assuming the Orioles accidently were bad in 2021 and 22, rather than understanding they let the tank go on 2 extra years, because there was point in winning during a 60 game fanless season, and 2021 which had limited fans and lots of uncertainty.

[Jonn]

You've gone full Oriole nutsack licker lately. I get it, they went scorched earth rebuild (likely forced into this due to the complete ineptitude of the previous front office and terrible ownership policy) but I don't see why you seem to spend so much of your posting time on here constantly pumping their tires.

 

The Orioles current regime were basically forced into years of terribleness that they couldn't control due to how terrible the previous regime was. But what they have done is successfully navigated themselves out of it and put themselves in tremendous position to win and win for a long time. Last year is an excellent example of this. They could have easily bought last year and snuck into a wild card spot. But they knew even if they were playing better and putting talent in more places they still weren't ready to contend. So they actually sold and continued to stock the cupboard. Now they have young players all over the diamond with blue chip prospects at every level and will just continue to funnel good quality players to the Big Leagues. They are in the drivers seat right now and do whatever they want.

 

I absolutely wish the Jays went for a similar approach and built it up much slower focusing on acquiring prospects and drafting at the top of the draft. Instead the moment they saw Vlad and Bo have success early success in the Majors and the fan response to that excitement. The front office collectively blew their entire load. And just spent money like crazy and traded away so many prospects for veterans. Even though a lot of the prospects ended up being s*** its not the point. They banked everything on Vlad and Bo being Superstars instead of continuing to develop of pipeline of young talent around them. Instead Bo and Vlad were hitting #2 and #3 in the Lineup and it was about getting as much veteran talent around them. And to their credit they have been in the playoff picture every year since 2020. Lets hope it pays off in a World Series victory while this window is open. Problem is once this window is closed will probably slip into mediocrity for a handful of years. Especially if they can't resign Bo and other good players don't emerge.

[Jonn]

You guys think the O's will make big moves at the trade deadline? They're usually not known to do so...

 

They will use their position player prospect capital to add a good Starter. I don't know if they well shell out big for rentals. But I expect them to go after Dylan Cease type.

 

And they will have plenty to spend in the off-season. Maybe they can acquire Giolito now and resign him.

 

I don't expect them to be in on Stroman. But now that I said that they probably will.

[max silver]

The Orioles current regime were basically forced into years of terribleness that they couldn't control due to how terrible the previous regime was. But what they have done is successfully navigated themselves out of it and put themselves in tremendous position to win and win for a long time. Last year is an excellent example of this. They could have easily bought last year and snuck into a wild card spot. But they knew even if they were playing better and putting talent in more places they still weren't ready to contend. So they actually sold and continued to stock the cupboard. Now they have young players all over the diamond with blue chip prospects at every level and will just continue to funnel good quality players to the Big Leagues. They are in the drivers seat right now and do whatever they want.

 

I absolutely wish the Jays went for a similar approach and built it up much slower focusing on acquiring prospects and drafting at the top of the draft. Instead the moment they saw Vlad and Bo have success early success in the Majors and the fan response to that excitement. The front office collectively blew their entire load. And just spent money like crazy and traded away so many prospects for veterans. Even though a lot of the prospects ended up being s*** its not the point. They banked everything on Vlad and Bo being Superstars instead of continuing to develop of pipeline of young talent around them. Instead Bo and Vlad were hitting #2 and #3 in the Lineup and it was about getting as much veteran talent around them. And to their credit they have been in the playoff picture every year since 2020. Lets hope it pays off in a World Series victory while this window is open. Problem is once this window is closed will probably slip into mediocrity for a handful of years. Especially if they can't resign Bo and other good players don't emerge.

 

I guess we'll never really know what the optimal approach would have been with regards to when to start opening the pocket books. Vlad and Bo arrived at basically the same time and improved the team sufficiently that it's possible the team would have been choosing middle of the first round after that. The shortened covid season really f***ed the team over in several aspects, in that the minor league system lost a lot of development time and Vlad and Bo each burned a full year of control despite only playing for 2 months. For a team just working it's way towards a competitive cycle this couldn't have happened at a worse time.

 

I really hate the qualifying offer system, as it really punishes teams that actually want to spend money and add impact pieces to their roster. Losing several draft picks over the years certainly hurt after signing the likes of Springer and Gausman to supplement the young core, but at the same time there were a lot of misses on the guys who were selected through the draft. Maybe having a few extra picks in those draft years would have led to another piece or two being available to the major league squad but given this front office's drafting record this is far from a given.

 

I have zero issue with the front office trading away prospects to supplement the major league core. They have generally been adept at identifying the true keepers in the system and cashing out on the prospects less likely to make an impact at the big league level.

[Stangstag]

You guys think the O's will make big moves at the trade deadline? They're usually not known to do so...

 

No, they won’t

[metafour]

The Orioles current regime were basically forced into years of terribleness that they couldn't control due to how terrible the previous regime was. But what they have done is successfully navigated themselves out of it and put themselves in tremendous position to win and win for a long time. Last year is an excellent example of this. They could have easily bought last year and snuck into a wild card spot. But they knew even if they were playing better and putting talent in more places they still weren't ready to contend. So they actually sold and continued to stock the cupboard. Now they have young players all over the diamond with blue chip prospects at every level and will just continue to funnel good quality players to the Big Leagues. They are in the drivers seat right now and do whatever they want.

 

I absolutely wish the Jays went for a similar approach and built it up much slower focusing on acquiring prospects and drafting at the top of the draft. Instead the moment they saw Vlad and Bo have success early success in the Majors and the fan response to that excitement. The front office collectively blew their entire load. And just spent money like crazy and traded away so many prospects for veterans. Even though a lot of the prospects ended up being s*** its not the point. They banked everything on Vlad and Bo being Superstars instead of continuing to develop of pipeline of young talent around them. Instead Bo and Vlad were hitting #2 and #3 in the Lineup and it was about getting as much veteran talent around them. And to their credit they have been in the playoff picture every year since 2020. Lets hope it pays off in a World Series victory while this window is open. Problem is once this window is closed will probably slip into mediocrity for a handful of years. Especially if they can't resign Bo and other good players don't emerge.

 

Teams like the Rays and Orioles have a big advantage in that their ownership is notoriously cheap and thus their fans have zero built-in expectations, which means that they can always just operate smartly without any outside pressure to do otherwise.

 

If you remember, this FO came in and was immediately blasted by the legacy baseball writers in Canada. They were already at a negative position with the fanbase because of the irregular circumstances of how they came in before they even made a baseball move, and they have an Ownership group that cares more about how the fanbase perceives the team than Tampa or Baltimore do. Unfortunately, they have bosses themselves who will largely dictate the direction of the team. This was immediately felt with their move of attempting to "gently" rebuild while still trying to compete with Donaldson. These guys are obviously smart enough to know that they should have sold high on Donaldson and blown up the team, but imagine they actually did that given the fan opinion of Shapiro and company when they were hired? It was very obvious that their direction was largely being dictated by Rogers.

 

The same applies to the speed at which they went to try to contend with Vlad/Bo. They were hired at the peak of an unprecedented nation wide re-interest in the team. Once they started winning faster than expected it became very easy to tell that Rogers was going to want to strike while the iron was still hot from the 2015 season.

[Jonn]

Teams like the Rays and Orioles have a big advantage in that their ownership is notoriously cheap and thus their fans have zero built-in expectations, which means that they can always just operate smartly without any outside pressure to do otherwise.

 

If you remember, this FO came in and was immediately blasted by the legacy baseball writers in Canada. They were already at a negative position with the fanbase because of the irregular circumstances of how they came in before they even made a baseball move, and they have an Ownership group that cares more about how the fanbase perceives the team than Tampa or Baltimore do. Unfortunately, they have bosses themselves who will largely dictate the direction of the team. This was immediately felt with their move of attempting to "gently" rebuild while still trying to compete with Donaldson. These guys are obviously smart enough to know that they should have sold high on Donaldson and blown up the team, but imagine they actually did that given the fan opinion of Shapiro and company when they were hired? It was very obvious that their direction was largely being dictated by Rogers.

 

The same applies to the speed at which they went to try to contend with Vlad/Bo. They were hired at the peak of an unprecedented nation wide re-interest in the team. Once they started winning faster than expected it became very easy to tell that Rogers was going to want to strike while the iron was still hot from the 2015 season.

 

You do make a lot of good points and agree with most of it. This is very difficult market to rebuild in especially coming off those playoff teams. But if they had just rebuilt and sold high on Donaldson among others we would probably be a much better team today. This fan base doesn’t know what’s good for them. I felt the writing was on the wall but they wanted asses in the seats more than anything else.

[bones10]

The Orioles current regime were basically forced into years of terribleness that they couldn't control due to how terrible the previous regime was. But what they have done is successfully navigated themselves out of it and put themselves in tremendous position to win and win for a long time. Last year is an excellent example of this. They could have easily bought last year and snuck into a wild card spot. But they knew even if they were playing better and putting talent in more places they still weren't ready to contend. So they actually sold and continued to stock the cupboard. Now they have young players all over the diamond with blue chip prospects at every level and will just continue to funnel good quality players to the Big Leagues. They are in the drivers seat right now and do whatever they want.

 

I absolutely wish the Jays went for a similar approach and built it up much slower focusing on acquiring prospects and drafting at the top of the draft. Instead the moment they saw Vlad and Bo have success early success in the Majors and the fan response to that excitement. The front office collectively blew their entire load. And just spent money like crazy and traded away so many prospects for veterans. Even though a lot of the prospects ended up being s*** its not the point. They banked everything on Vlad and Bo being Superstars instead of continuing to develop of pipeline of young talent around them. Instead Bo and Vlad were hitting #2 and #3 in the Lineup and it was about getting as much veteran talent around them. And to their credit they have been in the playoff picture every year since 2020. Lets hope it pays off in a World Series victory while this window is open. Problem is once this window is closed will probably slip into mediocrity for a handful of years. Especially if they can't resign Bo and other good players don't emerge.

 

The issue is, this current regime has not developed prospects Like the Orioles have. Even taking a few more years to slow the rebuild there is never guarantee that those prospects ever develop or ever sync up with Bo and Vlads perfect seasons. Another thing worth mentioning is the fact that the Yankees and Red Sox have looked susceptible for the last few years, and are the real teams you have to worry about when trying to compete for years, as they have prospect capital + infinite payroll. Given that, it's reasonable for the FO want to push their chips in for these couple years.

 

If the team had made the playoffs in 2021, they could have done some serious damage and last year could have definitely of went more favourable for them, this year remains to be seen but the pitching has been great.

[G-Snarls]

Wow

 

The Rays are in a full on freefall. Have lost 8 of their last 10.

 

Let's hope it lasts a while

[Ray]

Orioles lose 2 out of 3 to the Phillies.

[John_Havok]

Orioles lose 2 out of 3 to the Phillies.

 

Orioles and Jays have the same run differential now at +46. Red Sox +49, Houston +49. Last couple of WC spots are gonna be a dogfight right to the end.

[Terminator]

Orioles and Jays have the same run differential now at +46. Red Sox +49, Houston +49. Last couple of WC spots are gonna be a dogfight right to the end.

 

But I was told that the Orioles are serious World Series contenders and that the Jays suck?

[BigCecil]

0-0 in the 4th Yanks O's. I feel so twisted hoping for Cole and the Yanks to win.

[Spanky99]

F U Santander!

[Jonn]

f***ing dog s*** Yankees offense. What a meatball to end it.

[Olerud363]

But I was told that the Orioles are serious World Series contenders and that the Jays suck?

 

Orioles being serious World Series contenders is based on their almost MLB ready prospect base contributing in the last 2 months, and them using some of their payroll space and trading some of their 5-15 ranked prospects for help, not on their current run differential.

[Olerud363]

Orioles being serious World Series contenders is based on their almost MLB ready prospect base contributing in the last 2 months, and them using some of their payroll space and trading some of their 5-15 ranked prospects for help, not on their current run differential.

 

 

Case in point 1-0 win over Yankees with Gray-Rod looking pretty good... run-differential so far is based on 7 ERA Gray-Rod. Gray-Rods minor league numbers, prospect ranking, and stuff indicate his performance last 2 months has a great chance of being way better.

[BigCecil]

You do make a lot of good points and agree with most of it. This is very difficult market to rebuild in especially coming off those playoff teams. But if they had just rebuilt and sold high on Donaldson among others we would probably be a much better team today. This fan base doesnÂ’t know whatÂ’s good for them. I felt the writing was on the wall but they wanted asses in the seats more than anything else.

 

The reality is this franchise didn’t make a single playoff game from 1994 to 2015. We didn’t melt. The narrative that somehow we couldn’t handle a real rebuild or a few very down years with a clearly communicated plan for the future, that our loyal fan base can get behind, is a total red herring narrative to give excuses to the current FO in my view. I actually thought that was what we were getting with these guys.

 

That’s not a condemnation of their body of work as they don’t deserve one. But there have been many decisions worthy of criticism.

[John_Havok]

The reality is this franchise didn’t make a single playoff game from 1994 to 2015. We didn’t melt. The idea that somehow we couldn’t handle a real rebuild or a few very down years with a clearly communicated plan for the future, that our loyal fan base can get behind, is a total red herring narrative to give excuses to the current FO in my view. I actually thought that was what we were getting with these guys.

 

That’s not a condemnation of their body of work as they don’t deserve one. But there have been many decisions worthy of criticism.

 

It’s not so much the fanbase…but at the same time it is. Look what happened to attendance in 2019 when the jays were in their third year of the rebuild, 3rd straight sub-.500 season after the two playoff years in 2015/16. Avg attendance of 21606.

 

Avg in 2016 was 41880, 2017 was 39554.

 

I don’t have tv or streaming numbers from that season so maybe those tell a better story but I wouldn’t bet on it.

 

Attendance was basically cut in half in just the third year after two playoffs runs. That’s what happens in Toronto. this season is averaging 36828.

 

Rogers can’t let their marketing tool fall into extended obscurity the way others can in order to get top 1-5 draft picks thrown at them along with competitive balance picks year after year after year.

 

The reality is the Jays brass has to make do with their first round picks being in the last half of the every round, scoring in international fee agency, losing their second rounder if they need to grab a free agent and pulling off trades. There’s never going to be a 3-5 year period where they pick in the top 1-5 in 4 of those years

[jaysblue]

Yeah if Jays don't remain competitive and go all full rebuild, attendance would take a hit down the road. Especially at the prices now being charged for tickets lol.

[Eat My Shatkins]

O's lost

Red Sox lost

Rays got their s*** pushed in HARD

 

Good stuff.

 

Also the Mariners lost, the Guardians lost, the Rangers lost.

 

Solid night