Bold Predictions Thread

[Spanky99]

I think they won 92 last year and this years Fangraphs projection is 89. https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

 

Projections always have a lower variation than real standings I think. For example Jays fangraphs projection of 89 is like tied for 5th. Projected standings don't have many teams above 95 (none for FG this year) or below 65.

 

The variation that leads to 100 or 50 win seasons is not predictable.

 

Carlos Math (88) is closer to the real Math(89) than Spanky Math, though that doesn't mean you are wrong. Math might be wrong. Jays win 110.

 

(Probably some of the other projection systems have more variability, I think Baseball Prospectus standings may have more outliers... I don't know. Too lazy to look, research, or think about how the predicted variability works).

 

Yes my bad, typo... been up a couple days. 92 Wins, my bad, point still stands 96 Wins will be easy to get. A hundred is if everything goes right scenario

[bones10]

Kikuchi turns into our second best starter

[wilko]

Kikuchi turns into our second best starter

 

Who's first?

[The Cats Ass]

Who's first?

 

Berrios

[wilko]

Berrios

 

Now THATS a bold prediction!

[The Cats Ass]

Now THATS a bold prediction!

 

Bold is predicting the Jays starting pitchers to have the highest combined WAR in the past 10 years. They'd have to top the 2013 Tigers (23.1 WAR).

[bones10]

Who's first?

 

Gaus

[BlueRocky]

Kiermaier 3+ WAR

Espinal All-Star again

Jr gets 40+ dingers

Gabriel Martinez breakout to top 5 in farm system

Nate Pearson either establish high leverage role or dies

Tiedemann debuts in May

[John_Havok]

Nate Pearson either establish high leverage role or dies

 

No real middle ground there lol

[Jonn]

Gabriel Moreno winning NL ROY

[Grant77]

Kiermaier 3+ WAR

Espinal All-Star again

Jr gets 40+ dingers

Gabriel Martinez breakout to top 5 in farm system

Nate Pearson either establish high leverage role or dies

Tiedemann debuts in May

 

A guy who has averaged 40 home runs over the last 2 seasons will hit 40 home runs? That's very bold.

[Olerud363]

Kiermaier 3+ WAR

Espinal All-Star again

Jr gets 40+ dingers

Gabriel Martinez breakout to top 5 in farm system

Nate Pearson either establish high leverage role or dies

Tiedemann debuts in May

 

Gabriel Martinez is already arguably top 5 if you made stats only rankings considering age and k-rate. Since he is lower on most of the lists I assume there is something the scouts don't like.

 

I'm no insider as to how these lists are made, but it seems to me that a couple of small differences in stats would change the impression of Martiinez a lot, like if he just above .300 instead of just below, and if he played 20 more games and collected more impressive counting stats.

 

I was really surprised that he was both not protected on the 40 man and not chosen. Again kind of indicates there might be something there that people don't like. Rule 5 guys aren't really that much of a thing anymore other than relievers, but can't believe one of the 10 or so non-contenders couldn't use a roster spot on him.

 

Like in 2019 the Jays used a Roster spot on a 19 year old, very raw and useless reliever. Wouldn't Gabriel Martinez be a better bet than that?

[John_Havok]

Gabriel Martinez is already arguably top 5 if you made stats only rankings considering age and k-rate. Since he is lower on most of the lists I assume there is something the scouts don't like.

 

I'm no insider as to how these lists are made, but it seems to me that a couple of small differences in stats would change the impression of Martiinez a lot, like if he just above .300 instead of just below, and if he played 20 more games and collected more impressive counting stats.

 

I was really surprised that he was both not protected on the 40 man and not chosen. Again kind of indicates there might be something there that people don't like. Rule 5 guys aren't really that much of a thing anymore other than relievers, but can't believe one of the 10 or so non-contenders couldn't use a roster spot on him.

 

Like in 2019 the Jays used a Roster spot on a 19 year old, very raw and useless reliever. Wouldn't Gabriel Martinez be a better bet than that?

 

The question mark on Martinez previously is whether he will develop any power. It’s been nonexistent until last season. He hit 14 last year after hitting ….none in 2021 and 2 in 2019. Nobody questions the hit tool. with last years power progress, if he keeps up improvement in that area this season he’ll vault up all the lists.

[Terminator]

All are huge longshots but you asked for BOLD predictions so I'm going to give 'em to ya.:

 

Danny Jansen stays healthy all year

Craig Biggio's son establishes himself as a bon a fide Major League Baseball player and starter for the Jays

Cody Bellinger bounces back with a big season

The Orioles win 90+

 

BOLD

[saskjayfan]

Ryu starts a playoff game for the Jays this year.

 

BOLD!

[Omar]

Ryu starts a playoff game for the Jays this year.

 

BOLD!

 

[Jimcanuck]

The question mark on Martinez previously is whether he will develop any power. It’s been nonexistent until last season. He hit 14 last year after hitting ….none in 2021 and 2 in 2019. Nobody questions the hit tool. with last years power progress, if he keeps up improvement in that area this season he’ll vault up all the lists.

 

He's also no better than average defensively and is seen as a LF. So his bat will need to continue to be hot and carry him to MLB. A tougher climb than a guy that hits and has high defensive value

[jaysblue]

- Manoah is the Jays fourth best pitcher this season in terms of WAR.

 

- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits 50 HR's.

 

- Romano saves 50 games and posts an ERA below 2.

 

- Kirk wins the AL Batting Title

 

- Gausman strikes out 250 batters and wins the AL Cy Young.

 

- George Springer plays 150 games this season.

[Sammy225]

Berrios is going to post a Sub 3.50era this year and is going to start game 2 of the ALDS

[Jonn]

Berrios is going to post a Sub 3.50era this year and is going to start game 2 of the ALDS

 

This might be the boldest yet.

[bones10]

- Manoah is the Jays fourth best pitcher this season in terms of WAR.

 

- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits 50 HR's.

 

- Romano saves 50 games and posts an ERA below 2.

 

- Kirk wins the AL Batting Title

 

- Gausman strikes out 250 batters and wins the AL Cy Young.

 

- George Springer plays 150 games this season.

 

So basically we win the World Series

[Omar]

Blue Jays host the White Sox the last week of April. Benches clear. Mild mannered bench coach Charlie Montoyo goes apeshit and breaks Schneider’s jaw. Subsequently, Mattingly takes over as skipper for the rest of the season because Schneider has lost all cred and can’t show his face.

 

You want bold, you got it.

[Stangstag]

So basically we win the World Series

 

Regular season results =/= postseason success

[Jimcanuck]

So basically we win the World Series

 

This is not bold

[RobinThicc]

Kikuchi will have a lower ERA than Bassitt

[jaysblue]

Kikuchi strikes out 200 batters

[Krylian]

Kikuchi will have a lower ERA than Bassitt

 

Half the board will have a lower ERA than Bassitt.

[wilko]

I don't think there should be anymore bold predictions now that the season started.

[Deadpool]

I don't think there should be anymore bold predictions now that the season started.

 

I also think people shouldn't get credit for any prediction made after the first pitch on opening day... You'll have to get your bragging rights elsewhere, cheaters!

[jaysblue]

I don't think there should be anymore bold predictions now that the season started.

 

Kikuchi hasn't taken the mound yet. My bold prediction is okay.