Bold Predictions Thread

[Spanky99]

Otto Lopez is interesting. A better minor league hitter and faster than Espinal, so if he adjusted to the majors as well as Espinal did in 2021 he'd have a great year (though not sure how he gets the apr. 145 games he'd need to content for ROY).

 

If he got 120 games after an injury or something like that and he went off then maybe.

 

Would be nice fellas, but this is the Bold Prediction thread, chances are very slim.

[The_DH]

Would be nice fellas, but this is the Bold Prediction thread, chances are very slim.

 

In the spectrum of likelihood, it is not that extreme.

[Spanky99]

In the spectrum of likelihood, it is not that extreme.

 

Dude?!

[Jays24]

Berrios is our 2nd best pitcher

Varsho stinks the joint offensively

Chapman is the 2nd best offensive player on the team and gets MVP votes

Biggio becomes our everyday 2nd baseman

[Spanky99]

Berrios is our 2nd best pitcher

Varsho stinks the joint offensively

Chapman is the 2nd best offensive player on the team and gets MVP votes

Biggio becomes our everyday 2nd baseman

 

See... he went completely opposite.

 

I love this.

 

Your stick/routine is lame on a SSS; dumn.

[wilko]

Schneider does something crazy on the personal side that promotes Mattingly as acting manager.

 

Mattingly sticks as manager. Rivera and Martinez are instantly fired in the off season.

 

Watches a person choke to death at a restaurant?

[Omar]

Kevin Gausman wins the Cy Young.

Chapman leads the team in HR

Kevin Keirmaier plays in the All Star game.

Pete Walker has one too many before the season starts.

[Krylian]

Kevin Gausman wins the Cy Young.

Chapman leads the team in HR

Kevin Keirmaier plays in the All Star game.

Pete Walker has one too many before the season starts.

 

I thought they were supposed to be bold predictions.

[Spanky99]

I thought they were supposed to be bold predictions.

 

I don't think any of those are bold.

[connorp]

Spanky appears on 90 Day Fiancé

[Spanky99]

Spanky appears on 90 Day Fiancé

 

(LOOK AT ME) Post.

[connorp]

(LOOK AT ME) Post.

 

I’m actually a little upset I can’t send you an Altuve lowball

[Spanky99]

I’m actually a little upset I can’t send you an Altuve lowball

 

You ALWAYS sent lowball Altuve offers... just saying.

[L54]

I’m actually a little upset I can’t send you an Altuve lowball

 

But you still sent it to me

[Spanky99]

But you still sent it to me

 

lol... f***ing gold.

[connorp]

I never claimed to have shame.

 

I should’ve let L54 and JG34 have some time to absorb the news though

[Spanky99]

RSL... done

[saskjayfan]

-Danny Jansen leads AL Catchers in Homeruns.

 

-Alejandro Kirk struggles immensely with the bat hitting in the low .200Â’s and gets optioned to AAA at one point in the Season.

 

-Vladdy attemps 20 steals

 

-Biggio emerges as the everyday Second Baseman

 

-Bo Bichette puts up a 30/30 Season

 

-Matt Chapman leads the team in WAR

 

-Dalton Varsho leads the team in Homeruns

 

-Kevin Kiermaier has the best offensive season of his career.

 

-George Springer plays 150 games

 

-Kevin Gausman finishes Top 5 CY Young

 

-Ricky T is closing games in September and gets the save in the Blue Jays first post season victory.

 

-Kikuchi posts a better FIP than Berriors

 

-Bullpen has atleast 5 new regular members by Season end (Minors or Trades)

 

Kirk could conceivably hit low .200s to start the season with some bad babip luck, but it's almost inconceivable for him to do so for an extended timeframe once he gets enough bats. His bat to ball skills are ridiculous. When you're 98th percentile in K% and 87th percentile in BB% hitting low .200s is not possible.

[RobinThicc]

Kikuchi finishes with a lower ERA than Berrios

[Jonn]

Kikuchi finishes with a lower ERA than Berrios

 

I actually don’t think this bold anymore. Berrios has looked f***ing terrible in his appearances so far.

[L54]

I never claimed to have shame.

 

I should’ve let L54 and JG34 have some time to absorb the news though

 

Lol I don’t take offers personally. I did just give up two top 100 guys last year so your offer doesn’t interest me as the defending champion

[Omar]

I don't think any of those are bold.

 

[Stangstag]

Kikuchi produces more WAR than Manoah

 

Varsho has a 5 WAR season

[Carlos Danger]

Blue Jays play .540 ball

 

Vasho leads the team in doubles

 

 

More to come......

[Spanky99]

Blue Jays play .540 ball

 

Vasho leads the team in doubles

 

 

More to come......

 

.540??? Yup, that's bold.

[Carlos Danger]

.540??? Yup, that's bold.

 

It is considering there are a bunch of guys here who think the Jays will win 100 plus games.

Edited March 22, 2023 by Carlos Danger

[John_Havok]

It is considering there are a bunch of guys here who thing the Jays will win 100 plus games.

 

Big difference between "could win" and "will win"

 

The Jays are very capable of winning 100+, whether they do will depend on many factors that aren't exactly super predictable.

[Spanky99]

Big difference between "could win" and "will win"

 

The Jays are very capable of winning 100+, whether they do will depend on many factors that aren't exactly super predictable.

 

I think his point is .540 ball is what 88 Wins, team's projected to Win 92, so 100 is too much? Jays won 96 games last year, I don't think the Jays have gotten worse, so my quick Spanky math tells me CD's out to lunch on 88 Wins...

[Olerud363]

I think his point is .540 ball is what 88 Wins, team's projected to Win 92, so 100 is too much? Jays won 96 games last year, I don't think the Jays have gotten worse, so my quick Spanky math tells me CD's out to lunch on 88 Wins...

 

I think they won 92 last year and this years Fangraphs projection is 89. https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

 

Projections always have a lower variation than real standings I think. For example Jays fangraphs projection of 89 is like tied for 5th. Projected standings don't have many teams above 95 (none for FG this year) or below 65.

 

The variation that leads to 100 or 50 win seasons is not predictable.

 

Carlos Math (88) is closer to the real Math(89) than Spanky Math, though that doesn't mean you are wrong. Math might be wrong. Jays win 110.

 

(Probably some of the other projection systems have more variability, I think Baseball Prospectus standings may have more outliers... I don't know. Too lazy to look, research, or think about how the predicted variability works).

[John_Havok]

I think they won 92 last year and this years Fangraphs projection is 89. https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

 

Projections always have a lower variation than real standings I think. For example Jays fangraphs projection of 89 is like tied for 5th. Projected standings don't have many teams above 95 (none for FG this year) or below 65.

 

The variation that leads to 100 or 50 win seasons is not predictable.

 

Carlos Math (88) is closer to the real Math(89) than Spanky Math, though that doesn't mean you are wrong. Math might be wrong. Jays win 110.

 

(Probably some of the other projection systems have more variability, I think Baseball Prospectus standings may have more outliers... I don't know. Too lazy to look, research, or think about how the predicted variability works).

 

I have a fairly non-scientific approah to this. take last years win totals and then add and subtract around 10 wins to get a decent range of "woulda coulda shoulda" outcomes, check the team to see if anything major occurred that would drastically change anything. If not, expect something roughly similar.