General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[max silver]

Man, Mike Trout cannot be worth much in a trade. He's gotta be worth way more to the Angels than they'd ever get in a return unless they ate a f***ton of that contract.

 

Hard to believe he's already 32 years old. $35.5 million AAV and he's averaged 3.7 fWAR the last three seasons...well basically three "half seasons" because he is always injured now.

 

I think any team that is actually interested in trading for Trout can have him for essentially nothing in return unless the Angels are willing to eat most of his remaining contract. His ZiPS projections are pretty ugly compared to what he's going to be paid.

 

Under a realistic scenario with likely time lost due to injury baked in Trout is only projected to provide about $127 million of total value of his remaining $248 million. In a best case scenario where his injury history is removed from the projections completely his projections improve a lot, but still underwater with Trout projected to provide $206 million worth of value.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mike-trout-is-probably-staying-in-anaheim/

[Eat My Shatkins]

OK, now I want Bellinger on the Jays again.

[metafour]

Man, Mike Trout cannot be worth much in a trade. He's gotta be worth way more to the Angels than they'd ever get in a return unless they ate a f***ton of that contract.

 

Hard to believe he's already 32 years old. $35.5 million AAV and he's averaged 3.7 fWAR the last three seasons...well basically three "half seasons" because he is always injured now.

 

Exactly.

 

Trout is 230+ pounds, extremely explosive, and has been playing a physically demanding position (CF) for a decade. The guy's body is clearly breaking down. It's incredibly unlikely to carry that much weight with the force he is able to produce and maintain that into your mid to late 30's. Would not surprise me at all if his career trajectory mirrors a guy like Ken Griffey Jr., who was very similar from a physical/athletic perspective.

 

He's really not worth much with his contract and declining health.

[glory]

Even if you think 100% we need to rebuild in 2026, it’s still worth signing Bellinger for the production he could provide in 24/25. And if they’re paying him 25 mil a year during a rebuild, who cares? Can probably still keep the payroll under 100 million even with that on the books.

 

Who has the better projections in 2024-25 between Bellinger and Yelich? If it’s Yelich then he makes more sense to acquire (if it costs nothing and he waives his NTC) since he’d only have 3 years remaining after that, whereas Bellinger would likely have 5-6. A Cody signing only makes sense if you think he’s going to be good for a majority of it, or at least more than half.

 

A big component to all of this is how Atkins goes about the off season. Does he want to maximize the next 2 years or does he want to build something more sustainable? Ohtani was a special case, and Soto would have been a rental so not sure we can decipher anything based on that. Bellinger would probably fit the “sustainable” model but that’s only if they are confident his performance post 2025 will still be there. I’m not even sure his 2024 performance will be there which is why he’s so risky.

[Brownie19]

Even if you think 100% we need to rebuild in 2026, it’s still worth signing Bellinger for the production he could provide in 24/25. And if they’re paying him 25 mil a year during a rebuild, who cares? Can probably still keep the payroll under 100 million even with that on the books.

 

Front end load his contract - then if he's actually still a stud, he becomes a good trade asset to help the rebuild. Does the luxury tax use AAV? or actual? Could pay him like $50M in 2024/2025 and then he'd only have 6 years $80M left on his deal (assuming the deal is 8 years $180M). If he's a 4 to 5 WAR player in 2024 and 2025, you could trade him before the 2026 season for a haul as he enters his age 30 season. Costs Rogers more today, but may help the franchise long term.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Front end load his contract - then if he's actually still a stud, he becomes a good trade asset to help the rebuild. Does the luxury tax use AAV? or actual? Could pay him like $50M in 2024/2025 and then he'd only have 6 years $80M left on his deal (assuming the deal is 8 years $180M). If he's a 4 to 5 WAR player in 2024 and 2025, you could trade him before the 2026 season for a haul as he enters his age 30 season. Costs Rogers more today, but may help the franchise long term.

 

Pretty sure it's the salary that counts against the luxury tax payroll, not the AAV

[Terminator]

What kind of prospects/players do the Brewers like?

 

We’ve got Manoah who it seems like they might like and then a ton of 40/45 high floor guys. The A’s are always a team that likes prospects like that, for example. Would the Brewers?

[Terminator]

Pretty sure it's the salary that counts against the luxury tax payroll, not the AAV

 

It’s the AAV that counts for luxury tax purposes.

[Laika]

What kind of prospects/players do the Brewers like?

 

We’ve got Manoah who it seems like they might like and then a ton of 40/45 high floor guys. The A’s are always a team that likes prospects like that, for example. Would the Brewers?

 

They are kind of like Oakland, just actually good.

 

They like MLB ready bats and pitchers. They like undervalued arms, arms they can change, pop up pitchers...

[Omar]

The reason I mention "semi rebuild" is that with the investment in Rogers Center renovations the Jays want to average at least 30k people a game. Toronto fans can be fickle and I don't think a full on rebuild is in the cards. By semi rebuild we can stay competitive enough wherein when have shot a wildcard spot every year. Sustainable competitiveness is the goal. We're not going to be the best team in the East.

[Eat My Shatkins]

What kind of prospects/players do the Brewers like?

 

We’ve got Manoah who it seems like they might like and then a ton of 40/45 high floor guys. The A’s are always a team that likes prospects like that, for example. Would the Brewers?

 

This is why I like the idea of taking Yelich from them while grabbing a few other things. They are cheap and Adames and Burnes are both a year away from FA.

 

Manoah for Yelich, Burnes, Adames. Toss in a couple low value, near MLB ready pieces from our 40 man like Jiminez, Zulu maybe...

 

Just need a capable DH after that.

[Laika]

This is why I like the idea of taking Yelich from them while grabbing a few other things. They are cheap and Adames and Burnes are both a year away from FA.

 

Manoah for Yelich, Burnes, Adames. Toss in a couple low value, near MLB ready pieces from our 40 man like Jiminez, Zulu maybe...

 

Just need a capable DH after that.

 

Just a PR nightmare for Milwaukee

 

I'm sure they would love to move Yelich but I really doubt they would dismantle the core of their playoff team

[Stottlemyres_Bloody_Chin]

That's why I can still convince myself Bellinger would likely be worth it. Absolutely worst case scenario the team can pay part of his salary in trade if they decide to move him out and undertake a rebuild.

 

If you think Bellinger is likely worth it, you're nuts.

[Stangstag]

Front end load his contract - then if he's actually still a stud, he becomes a good trade asset to help the rebuild. Does the luxury tax use AAV? or actual? Could pay him like $50M in 2024/2025 and then he'd only have 6 years $80M left on his deal (assuming the deal is 8 years $180M). If he's a 4 to 5 WAR player in 2024 and 2025, you could trade him before the 2026 season for a haul as he enters his age 30 season. Costs Rogers more today, but may help the franchise long term.

 

The luxury tax doesn't exist anymore, just defer the last year of his contract into yearly payments for 20 years and poof!

[Stangstag]

It’s the AAV that counts for luxury tax purposes.

 

Not if you defer!

[G-Snarls]

[Jays24]

 

Man we thought he was fat before, wait until marriage sets in for him lol.

[L54]

Not if you defer!

 

Ya it is

[L54]

WTF is Manoah wearing

 

Why do ultra rich people dress like they shop at the Salvation Army?

[Jimcanuck]

Romano actually looks sane in that pic

[Brownie19]

WTF is Manoah wearing

 

Why do ultra rich people dress like they shop at the Salvation Army?

 

He looks like a f***ing moron. He's like a puppy dog who wants attention. Barf.

 

Edit - turns out I was probably wrong. This article gives some insight into Manoah - https://torontolife.com/city/the-electrifying-life-of-blue-jays-ace-alek-manoah/ Dad was an abusive alcoholic who went to jails when he was around high school. Sounds like he's always had that chip on his shoulder (fight first, flight never). Seems to just love the attention I guess. Terrible style though IMO.

Edited December 14, 2023 by Brownie19

[John_Havok]

WTF is Manoah wearing

 

Why do ultra rich people dress like they shop at the Salvation Army?

 

I’d totally wear that jacket and shorts…it’s the shoes that really f*** up that look.

[Jimcanuck]

Actually that's not Manoah's wedding garb. Another pick on Twitter shows his chic wedding tux.

[Stangstag]

Actually that's not Manoah's wedding garb. Another pick on Twitter shows his chic wedding tux.

 

He still had white sneakers with the white suit though. I don’t understand that combo at all.

[G-Snarls]

Manoah wedding story and pics if you care:

 

 

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/blue-jays-alek-manoah-married-wife-puerto-rico?__vfz=medium%3Dsharebar

[burlingtonbandit]

Front end load his contract - then if he's actually still a stud, he becomes a good trade asset to help the rebuild. Does the luxury tax use AAV? or actual? Could pay him like $50M in 2024/2025 and then he'd only have 6 years $80M left on his deal (assuming the deal is 8 years $180M). If he's a 4 to 5 WAR player in 2024 and 2025, you could trade him before the 2026 season for a haul as he enters his age 30 season. Costs Rogers more today, but may help the franchise long term.

 

May as well backload the contract and then if you do trade him you can just attach money. If you are paying the same say $160M its better to pay it later when the dollar isn't worth as much as it is now. Not to mention, you can improve the team right now with more $.

[burlingtonbandit]

Stroman was the same way. Would wear ridiculous clothes and then post on social media "me against the world" or some garbage. Once some of these players achieve a little success their egos go through the roof.

[max silver]

May as well backload the contract and then if you do trade him you can just attach money. If you are paying the same say $160M its better to pay it later when the dollar isn't worth as much as it is now. Not to mention, you can improve the team right now with more $.

 

Unless some of the money is deferred it seems this has zero effect on the luxury tax payout which is the more pressing concern vs just the dollar output.

[burlingtonbandit]

Unless some of the money is deferred it seems this has zero effect on the luxury tax payout which is the more pressing concern vs just the dollar output.

 

Oh I took it in the sense the Jays would get a bigger return since there was way less $ left on the deal if they were to trade him. Speaking of luxury tax if a team releases a player does a players contract count against the tax?

 

If the Jays are up against it next offseason it might make sense to attach money and trade Springer just to get rid of the cost against the tax.

[Brownie19]

I’d totally wear that jacket and shorts…it’s the shoes that really f*** up that look.

 

Nobody should wear a suit jacket with shorts. It looks ridiculous. But yes, the shoes that don't match anything he's wearing makes it even worse. Just screaming for attention because he's so self conscious. I feel bad for the guy.