General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[Laika]

Passans new article explicitly only lists three teams as "chasing" Shohei and the Jays are one of them. Doyers and the Rangers the other two. Other teams might have already bowed out.

 

link?

[BigCecil]

Moreno kind of put the "no power" label behind him in the second half. 5 HR in just 41 games and then 4 more in the playoffs (17 games) including some that weren't exactly wall scrapers.

 

He looks like a 15+ HR catcher. 20+ if he puts the games in.

 

The biggest concerns with Moreno are on defense. I guess baserunning too. He might not be the athletic, defensive asset scouts thought.

 

He is quick but isn't as fast as I thought. Compared to Kirk his 46th percentile sprint speed makes him Ben Johnson.

 

I think its too soon to make many judgements on the D. 20 DRS. His pop time, blocks above avg and throwing are elite.

 

Over the next 2 years if they move to a robo appeal system on balls/strikes, which i think they will, framing (where he is currently weak) will have less value in evaluating C. Which is a good thing IMO.

[RustyTrombone]

link?

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/38986551/mlb-free-agency-teams-watch-yankees-mets-padres

[Terminator]

[Laika]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/38986551/mlb-free-agency-teams-watch-yankees-mets-padres

 

pretty interesting

 

they must be making an earnest attempt

 

I like how Toronto tends to do this even if most of the time they just up "price enforcing."

[John_Havok]

Some of this post has big "I don't even watch baseball" energy

 

Moreno has more raw pop IMO and a more traditional swing which seems more likely to actually yank homers. I could actually see him hitting 25 HR a few times if he figures it all out.

 

Moreno had a gross year on BsR but you can just look at the two guys and safely assume he will be at least 5 runs better at BsR than Kirk in every year.

 

They are not as similar as they first seem. I think when their careers are over the player profiles will be quite different, even if they are both good catchers who carry a decent BA.

 

I disagree on the assumption that Moreno has figured out the power aspect using half a season of data... though I concede that the assumption I made of Kirk re-discovering his earlier power is also based on the same half a season, so... could probably call that a wash. Is recency bias more in play with Moreno simply due to age, unfatness and the chance that he "figures it all out?" Kirk isn't exactly ancient either, I'd say the chances of either one of them figuring out the power is roughly equal.

 

I would agree Moreno has more raw pop, but maybe like 55 vs a 50 for Kirk? Not a huge gap. I'd probably put 40 grades on their game power. Their HRs/PA will probably be pretty close going forward. Kirk is currently 1 HR every 38 PAs, Moreno is 1 HR for every 56 in regular season, 1 HR for 45 PAs including the postseason, though SSS caveats apply. 2023 seasons standing alone, Kirk was 1 HR every 53 PA, Moreno (including playoffs) 1 HR every 41 PAs. Still not quite to Kirk's career average. I suppose the overall feeling is which side gets more weight, recent results for Moreno vs early results for Kirk.

 

Kirks earlier career power also came at an earlier age then Moreno, 21/22 age seasons for Kirk vs age 23 season for Moreno.

 

I also make a bit of an assumption on Kirk that he will put some effort in the weight loss and become a less s***** runner over the next few seasons before his knees give out like all catchers' knees do and put him right back at the floor he is at now.

[RustyTrombone]

pretty interesting

 

they must be making an earnest attempt

 

I like how Toronto tends to do this even if most of the time they just up "price enforcing."

 

Wonder if there is an angle here for Rogers to break into the Japanese market via Shohei.

 

With how much Shohei is revered over there, if he does a Rogers commercial that would create a whole lot of demand for Rogers products. Factoring in that for Rogers would make this a no brainer lol

[John_Havok]

Wonder if there is an angle here for Rogers to break into the Japanese market via Shohei.

 

With how much Shohei is revered over there, if he does a Rogers commercial that would create a whole lot of demand for Rogers products. Factoring in that for Rogers would make this a no brainer lol

 

I don't think Rogers has any brand footprint in Japan at all does it? I don't know much about wireless carriers over there.

[mphenhef]

Wonder if there is an angle here for Rogers to break into the Japanese market via Shohei.

 

With how much Shohei is revered over there, if he does a Rogers commercial that would create a whole lot of demand for Rogers products. Factoring in that for Rogers would make this a no brainer lol

 

I'm sure TV rights in Japan are part of a shared revenue stream but I have been wondering if owning their own streaming app could be a means around this for Rogers where they could capitalize on that market.

[RustyTrombone]

I don't think Rogers has any brand footprint in Japan at all does it? I don't know much about wireless carriers over there.

 

Pretty sure they have zero footprint over there but Shohei has a lot of influence over there so if Rogers really wanted to they could probably use other carriers services for a couple years while they build out their own. Im not some telecom expert either but I have to imagine those are conversations that are possibly happening in the board rooms.

[RustyTrombone]

I'm sure TV rights in Japan are part of a shared revenue stream but I have been wondering if owning their own streaming app could be a means around this for Rogers where they could capitalize on that market.

 

Dont think the app would do much more with Shohei since the Japanese TV market produces their own broadcasts for his games.

[John_Havok]

Not sure if anyone has been checking this at all but Baseball Savant now has a leader board for Pitcher Running Game, basically to "express the skill of pitchers at preventing base runners from advancing on the bases, via steal attempts or pickoffs/balks."

 

Jays pitchers in 2023

 

Kikuchi was the best at +4 runs

Richards was +3

Berrios +2

Ryu was +1

Garcia was 0

Swanson -1

Bassitt -3

Manoah -4

Gausman -6

 

Best in baseball was Dylan Cease at +10

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/pitcher-running-game?game_type=Regular&n=q&pitch_hand=all&runner_moved=All&prior_pk=All&season_end=2023&season_start=2023&sortColumn=simple_prevented_on_running_attr&sortDirection=desc&split=no&team=&type=Pit&with_team_only=1&expanded=0

 

How this works: Each steal opportunity (currently runners at 1B only) is assigned a probability of being successful or not based on several inputs about the situation, most notably the speed of the runner. “Lead distance gained” expresses the distance gained by the runner between the pitcher’s first move and the release of the pitch.

 

How to read it: Pitcher Base Advances Prevented is the difference between advances allowed (vs. avg) and outs created (vs. avg). Pitcher Stealing Runs is a translation of that to a run value, where an advance allowed is -.2, an out created is +.45, and opportunities where a runner did not attempt to run are given a sliding scale based on the situation.

 

To be qualified a pitcher must have at least one stolen base opportunity per team game. A stolen base opportunity is defined as a pitcher thrown with a runner on first (and no other runners on).

[John_Havok]

Also some numbers on how steals were impacted with the # of disengagements:

 

0 disengagements - 1.4% attempt // 9.6 ft lead at first move // 77.7% advance rate

 

1 disengagement - 5.3% attempt // 10.4 ft lead at first move // 79.4% advance rate

 

2 disengagements - 10.4% attempt // 11.1 ft lead at first move // 79.0% advance rate

[Brownie19]

Seems odd the advance rate decreases after 2 disengagements, even though the lead length increases...probably an anomaly? I guess it could also just be that slower runners attempt more SB's after the 2nd disengagement, but are still too slow and got thrown out, which reduced the advance rate.

[John_Havok]

Seems odd the advance rate decreases after 2 disengagements, even though the lead length increases...probably an anomaly? I guess it could also just be that slower runners attempt more SB's after the 2nd disengagement, but are still too slow and got thrown out, which reduced the advance rate.

 

My guess would be it would depend on the count. If its a favourable pitcher count they could "waste" a pitch out or two. Probably some weird combo of that, plus who the pitcher is, catcher is etc.

[max silver]

My guess would be it would depend on the count. If its a favourable pitcher count they could "waste" a pitch out or two. Probably some weird combo of that, plus who the pitcher is, catcher is etc.

 

It could also be something that would "normalize" given more seasons of data.

[Brownie19]

Also some numbers on how steals were impacted with the # of disengagements:

 

0 disengagements - 1.4% attempt // 9.6 ft lead at first move // 77.7% advance rate

 

1 disengagement - 5.3% attempt // 10.4 ft lead at first move // 79.4% advance rate

 

2 disengagements - 10.4% attempt // 11.1 ft lead at first move // 79.0% advance rate

 

This is interesting. Some were suggesting we should allow more disengagements and that we've lost the always entertaining "cat and mouse game". This would suggest that while disengagements seem to impact the size of someone's lead, the advance rate % is relatively unchanged. IMO adding more disengagements would have a negligible impact on the game. They would likely just be abused by pitchers to give them more 'rest' on the mound between pitches.

[L54]

Need to know the advance rates before the new rules

 

.4% is pretty much nothing and the idea that a larger lead with no threat of a throw would equal less success is clearly a glitch in the matrix

 

I would give them four disengagements

[Jays24]

Guys talking about Disengagements when we're about to get Ohtaniiiii lol Edited November 27, 2023 by Jays24

[L54]

Guys talking a out Disengagements when we're about to get Ohtaniiiii lol

 

Maybe Yamamoto if we are blessed

[Jimcanuck]

After 2 disengages you probably getting guys that normally don't steal making an attempt. The numbers are meaningless until base stealing ability is factored in.

[Brownie19]

Need to know the advance rates before the new rules

 

.4% is pretty much nothing and the idea that a larger lead with no threat of a throw would equal less success is clearly a glitch in the matrix

 

I would give them four disengagements

 

I think the numbers are there man. Pickoff attempts seemingly hurt your chances of holding the runner! If you attempt a pickoff, they get a bigger lead, attempt more SBs and succeed more often - which is counterintuitive. Regardless, it appears this proves that pickoffs aren't very effective. Give them a couple token attempts per runner - no more.

[Laika]

Also some numbers on how steals were impacted with the # of disengagements:

 

0 disengagements - 1.4% attempt // 9.6 ft lead at first move // 77.7% advance rate

 

1 disengagement - 5.3% attempt // 10.4 ft lead at first move // 79.4% advance rate

 

2 disengagements - 10.4% attempt // 11.1 ft lead at first move // 79.0% advance rate

 

There are lots of variables in numbers like this

 

You'd have to break it down by like, the TYPE of pitcher that has to do multiple disengagements, the type of runner that will only chance it with an 11 foot lead, etc.

 

Like, in the third bucket you could have slower runners choosing to attempt steals more often because they get a bigger lead. You also might only see pitchers in that bucket who have worse pickoff moves (guys with elite moves don't really need to do repeated disengagements...)

[L54]

I think the numbers are there man. Pickoff attempts seemingly hurt your chances of holding the runner! If you attempt a pickoff, they get a bigger lead, attempt more SBs and succeed more often - which is counterintuitive. Regardless, it appears this proves that pickoffs aren't very effective. Give them a couple token attempts per runner - no more.

 

Of course pick off attempts hurt your chance to hold the runner because you only get two lol which is why I would prefer more attempts

 

You don’t have to like it but that’s my preference

[Frenchsoup]

What are we doing?

[Orgfiller]

After 2 disengages you probably getting guys that normally don't steal making an attempt. The numbers are meaningless until base stealing ability is factored in.

 

Guys that normally don't steal aren't drawing 2 disengagements to begin with.

[Brownie19]

Of course pick off attempts hurt your chance to hold the runner because you only get two lol which is why I would prefer more attempts

 

You don’t have to like it but that’s my preference

 

I think the natural thought would be that after an attempted pickoff move, the runner would get a smaller lead and be less likely to steal. I do wonder if that was true when there were unlimited disengagements? You'd think the answer is yes; however, if the pitchers pick off move is s***, then an attempted pickoff might tell that runner that he actually has more time than he thought and thus he takes a bigger lead (and perhaps is then more likely to 'go'). I guess that's where the cat and mouse game came in a bit. Pitchers wouldn't 'show' the runner their good move, in hopes that after a couple of pickoff attempts, the runner was lured into a sense of security that he could increase his leadoff length and then wam - you pick him off. Limiting disengagements certainly reduces the pitchers ability to waste attempts with secondary moves.

 

Under the new rules, runners are probably seeing the 'best move' more often than not and then adjusting their lead based on how much extra 'time' they had after the first pickoff - which is why we see larger leads and success rates after the 1st disengagement.

 

Interesting. I can see how you'd think that's not great, but I generally hate pickoffs and don't enjoy a good game of cat and mouse, so I'm cool with it. Give me more SB's please.

[John_Havok]

There are lots of variables in numbers like this

 

You'd have to break it down by like, the TYPE of pitcher that has to do multiple disengagements, the type of runner that will only chance it with an 11 foot lead, etc.

 

Like, in the third bucket you could have slower runners choosing to attempt steals more often because they get a bigger lead. You also might only see pitchers in that bucket who have worse pickoff moves (guys with elite moves don't really need to do repeated disengagements...)

 

Oh yeah, sooooo many variables that would need to be broken down. Internally I'm sure teams have done this kind of work.

[Jimcanuck]

Guys that normally don't steal aren't drawing 2 disengagements to begin with.

 

Not necessarily, depends on the game situation. Kirk isn't getting 2 disengagements, for sure. I'm talking about the guys that pick up 5-10 steals a year with a 60-65% success rate. Depending on game situation, they may get 2 disengagements.

 

Anyway, Laika used better words to cover my point that the numbers are meaningless without more context.

[Frenchsoup]

Is JD not the best value on the market and perfect fit for this team?