General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[Terminator]

[max silver]

 

Trying to re-sign Chapman is both reassuring and terrifying at the same time. Chapman could be a monster at the plate with a bit of an approach change but he just had a season where he was one of baseball's hitters for about half of the season (near MVP level overall play) and simultaneously awful for half of the season (replacement level value).

[Laika]

Dunno who this guy is but I doubt Toronto will miss Lantigua

 

And I also kind of doubt they want to pay Chapman $100M+

[Brownie19]

Screw Votto. Get J.D. Martinez.

 

I really don't get the hankering for Votto. His numbers against right handed hitters the last few seasons are downright bad which really limits his potential usefulness. If he weren't Canadian I don't think anyone here would give half a f*** about signing him. I think it makes infinitely more sense to spend a bit more to bring back Belt who was far and away the team's best hitter for most of last season.

 

I think the assumption is that Votto is going to cost next to nothing (I don't know, say $3), while JD Martinez (and Belt???) is going to cost you $15M

[deanmike]

 

 

Lmfao Rafael Lantigua, the guy they chose to snub off the 40-man in September in favour of Mason f***ing McShit. Nice loss there Atkins, hope you enjoyed McShit's late game defense at SS.

[saskjayfan]

Votto not wanting to come to Toronto when he was good makes me not want him at all now that he's 40 and a part time platoon 1B at best

 

He didn't want to go anywhere. He stayed in Cincinatti for his whole career. He was just loyal to an organization. It's not like he jumped ship and chose the Yankees over the Jays.

[max silver]

Lmfao Rafael Lantigua, the guy they chose to snub off the 40-man in September in favour of Mason f***ing McShit. Nice loss there Atkins, hope you enjoyed McShit's late game defense at SS.

 

Yeah potentially losing Lantigua is going to absolutely cost Atkins his job.

[Terminator]

Lmfao Rafael Lantigua, the guy they chose to snub off the 40-man in September in favour of Mason f***ing McShit. Nice loss there Atkins, hope you enjoyed McShit's late game defense at SS.

 

Wow I didn't realize we had any diehard Lantigua fans on the board.

[Omar]

The fact that even Cincinnati fans are content with letting Votto walk should give everyone on this board pause for thought. Don't do it.

[saskjayfan]

In 2022 he was below league average with the bat, so not sure how the worse case is league average. This is a player on a steep decline from a legendary career. Reminds me somewhat of Jose Bautista in 2017 where a bunch of people were trying to convince themselves that father time hadn't cooked him at age 37. Joey is 40 years old.

 

If you're signing him, I would hope he's rarely off the bench and there is some stats nerd that's going to convince me he can be sheltered enough to come close to a league avg bat. To be honest, I'd rather give the ABs to guys like Spencer Horwitz.

 

Steamer is completely statistcally driven and projects his wRC at 94. I'm not sure what your definition of "close to a league avg bat is" but 94 seems close to me. Votto was playing hurt in 2022. That's pretty well documented. He also put up a 39% better than league avg in 2021. Last year coming off injury coming in mid season he put up a .747 OPS for an OPS of 99. That's league average. Coming into camp healthy, I can see him bettering that number. His OPS range is 90 to 120. 1 year 3 mil on that type of player isn't really a bad signing. Throw in all the intangibles and he's not a terrible add. Sure I'd like Martinez but he's 15 to 20 mil. If we go sign a Bellinger and ony have a few mil left in our pocket and can't afford Martinez why not go with the young kids and sign Votto.

 

For years I've heard the nerds say don't spend big on a designated hitter and now you all don't want to go cheap on Votto, you want to spend big on a DH..lol

[MikeM3]

Votto can't even stay on the field at this point. We're gonna get Brantley for the old LHB slot

 

Then again he can't stay on the field either

[deanmike]

Wow I didn't realize we had any diehard Lantigua fans on the board.

 

I think you're saying this in jest (you probably don't actually think I'm a fan of Lantigua and just being negative), and if so you might be surprised once you find out this is far from my first post about liking Lantigua's game.

[deanmike]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/blue-jays-hope-to-add-multiple-position-players-this-offseason.html

 

Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins spoke to the media at the GM Meetings in Scottsdale, Arizona, with Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet passing along some of his quotes. Atkins discussed many details but the overarching takeaway was that the Jays are looking to add position players, with Atkins saying it could be anywhere from one to four players but it would most likely be two or three.

 

That pursuit is understandable given the results from the season that just ended. Though the Jays qualified for the postseason, their strength was their pitching and defense. The club had a combined wRC+ of 107 at the plate during the regular season, which wasn’t terrible, putting them just inside the top 10 league-wide. But they scored just one run across two games against the Twins in the Wild Card round and then saw Matt Chapman, Brandon Belt, Whit Merrifield and Kevin Kiermaier become free agents, depriving the club of four regular members of the lineup.

 

Atkins went on to address the free agent market, which is generally considered light on impact position players beyond Shohei Ohtani and Cody Bellinger, though the GM doesn’t necessarily view it that way. He said that “there are some really compelling players” available beyond the top of the market but they could also look to the trade market since they “still have the depth to trade from.”

 

Infield is likely to be a focus for the club, since Chapman was an everyday player at third base, while Merrifield split his time between second and the outfield and Belt played a bit of first base when he wasn’t the designated hitter. The Jays have plenty of infielders on the roster but, outside of shortstop Bo Bichette and first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., many of them are unproven at the big league level or are perhaps better suited to a bench/utility role.

 

Davis Schneider, Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal, Spencer Horwitz, Ernie Clement, Otto López, Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger and Leo Jimenez are all infielders on the 40-man roster but it’s unclear if the Jays want to rely on anyone in that group to step up and replace those that are departing. That is perhaps why Atkins gave the wide swath of possibilities for this winter.

 

Free agency features some potential solutions, such as Gio Urshela or Amed Rosario, though bringing Chapman back still seems to be on the table. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that Chapman is at the GM Meetings and has met with multiple teams, including the Jays. Chapman is coming off an uneven season but is still going to be one of the top free agents available this winter. He recently took the #7 spot on MLBTR’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents for this offseason, with a prediction of $150MM over six years.

 

Another option would be corner infielder Jeimer Candelario, who came in #13 on that MLBTR list with a prediction of $70MM over four years. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reports that the Jays met with Candelario’s reps at the GM meetings, indicating they are open to him as a Chapman replacement. Candelario looked to be establishing himself as an everyday player in Detroit not too long ago, hitting .278/.356/.458 over 2020 and 2021 for a wRC+ of 124. But he then endured a nightmare season in 2022 and got non-tendered. Splitting 2023 between the Nationals and Cubs, he got back on track with a .251/.336/.471 line and 117 wRC+. He’s generally been regarded as a passable but subpar defender in that time.

 

It’s also possible the Jays go another direction and lump multiple younger players together in a trade for an established major leaguer. That’s how they acquired Chapman in the first place, sending four less-established players to the A’s in March of 2022. Given the aforementioned glut of infielders, it’s possible the Jays could look to do something like that again.

 

On the trade front, Nicholson-Smith reports that third baseman Eugenio Suárez of the Mariners is one of the players they are interested in. It’s unknown if Seattle has openness to such a deal, but it seems possible. Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said yesterday that the club is looking to reduce the amount of strikeouts in the lineup and moving on from Suárez would certainly help in that department. Each of the past five seasons has ended with his strikeout rate near 30%, when the league average is usually in the 22-23% range.

 

That hasn’t stopped him from being a useful hitter, but with year-to-year inconsistency. While his strikeout rate has been steadily high in those five recent campaigns, the power and batting average have oscillated. That has resulted in two season with a wRC+ of 130, a couple close to league average and one way down at 85. On defense, he’s generally considered passable at third, though Outs Above Average loved his 2023 season. That metric considered him to be league average over the 2018-2022 period but gave him +11 in 2023. He has one year left on his contract with a club option for 2025. He’s set to make a salary of $11MM in the upcoming campaign with the option valued at $15MM and coming with a $2MM buyout.

 

Another option that the Jays are open to is first baseman Joey Votto, who is now a free agent for the first time in his career after the Reds declined their 2024 club option. He has been a speculative fit for the Jays going back many years since he grew up in Etobicoke, which was amalgamated into Toronto in 1998. “Incredible player, remarkable career,” Atkins said of Votto. “They’re just massive impact in the community if he were to be a Toronto Blue Jay. So definitely something that we would have to consider if that was something he wanted to pursue.” Though he added that Votto’s reputation would lead to him finding interest outside of his stomping grounds. “Incredible reputation, really dynamic personality, really bright (person) that I know our team would embrace,” Atkins said. “But I think that’s the case for probably 15 teams.”

 

Despite Votto’s incredible career, he’s not coming into free agency on a high note, having hit .204/.317/.394 over the past two seasons with a shoulder surgery in between those campaigns. It’s a somewhat similar scenario to Belt, who joined the Jays after a poor 2022 campaign that was ended by knee surgery. But Belt was going into his age-35 season when he was signed whereas Votto is now 40. Both are left-handed hitters at first base and the designated hitter spot, so it’s possible Votto could be viewed as a Belt replacement, but the Jays might have less faith in a post-surgery bounceback from Votto given the age disparity.

 

In the outfield, the Jays could look for a center fielder to replace Kiermaier though Daulton Varsho is also a capable center fielder, which could allow them to add in a corner. But Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports they are showing interest in free agent Michael A. Taylor. He’s a similar player to Kiermaier as both are considered excellent defensive center fielders but with lesser reputations on offense. Taylor hit 21 home runs in 2023 but his 6.7% walk rate and 33.5% strikeout rate were both worse than league average, resulting in a 96 wRC+. The defensive metrics have continued to be excellent though, as they have all throughout his career.

 

Though the lineup figures to be the primary concern, there is some uncertainty on the pitching staff. Four rotation spots should be spoken for with Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi all under contract and set to return in 2024, though the free agency of Hyun Jin Ryu leaves one spot open. That could go to Alek Manoah, who was excellent in 2021 and 2022, but 2023 was a different story. He posted a 5.87 ERA and was optioned to the minors multiple times as the relationship between him and the club appeared to sour. Perhaps there is some hope of getting back on track next year, as Atkins tells Keegan Matheson of MLB.com “I do feel like he has earned, already, the right to have a strong leg up” for that spot. Manoah may have some competition, as the Jays recently added Mitch White back to their roster, while prospect Ricky Tiedemann reached Triple-A in 2023.

 

Davidi adds that the Jays are interested in Japanese hurler Yoshinobu Yamamoto, with Atkins having gone to Japan to scout him three times this past year. They surely won’t be alone in that pursuit since Yamamoto is only 25 years old and has been one of the best pitchers in Japan for years, leading MLBTR to predict a contract of $225MM over nine years. Whether the club would upgrade their relatively strong rotation while having clear needs in the lineup is something that was asked of Atkins. “I feel like we will have the opportunity to present those types of significant adds or acquisitions to ownership. We’ve been given so much support that I wouldn’t say that that is unrealistic to do both.”

 

The club’s president/CEO Mark Shapiro previously stated that he expects next year’s payroll to be similar to this year’s, though they are already close on that front. Cot’s Baseball Contracts pegged their Opening Day payroll at $210MM in 2023 and now Roster Resource has them slated for $205MM next year. That includes projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players, but even a couple of non-tenders would only drop them down a bit below $200MM. Though if the competitive balance tax is the larger concern, there should be more wiggle room. RR estimates the club got to $246MM in terms of CBT in 2023 but is only at $216MM at the moment, with a few non-tenders likely to knock that down some.

 

Elsewhere in Blue Jays’ notes, they announced that Carlos Febles will be their third base coach next year, replacing Luis Rivera. It was reported last month that Rivera is retiring after 11 years in that gig for Toronto. Febles has been part of the Red Sox’ organization for the past two decades, serving as that club’s third base coach since 2018.

[wilko]

Wow I didn't realize we had any diehard Lantigua fans on the board.

 

I hope he resigns. If not i'll have to cover over my Lantigua Jays tattoo.

[Terminator]

I'm definitely down to fleece the Mariners again, this time for Suarez.

[Laika]

I'd be on board with trading for Eugenio Suárez

 

Ernie Clement should do it

[BTS]

 

The contract Chapman ends up signing is going to look pretty ugly when the defense slips and he's a below-average bat, and that could reasonably happen as soon as next year. If an impact bat won't take their money, spend it on an impact arm.

[MikeM3]

Forget the position players if you can actually sign Yamamoto

 

I'll get by with LHB reclamations like Gallo Wong Winker Brantley Santana Hicks

[Terminator]

I think you're saying this in jest (you probably don't actually think I'm a fan of Lantigua and just being negative), and if so you might be surprised once you find out this is far from my first post about liking Lantigua's game.

 

No, I do indeed think you are a fan of Lantigua. As odd as that may be. His numbers are interesting (nearly everyone in Buffalo's were) but he's a midget and not particularly young.

 

He might have been worth keeping around but we've already got a 40 man roster crunch so I'm not sure who we should boot in favor of him. We've already got some guys on the 40 man who are going to get the boot as we make moves this offseason.

 

As for McCoy, pretty sure he's gone already but he was literally up here to cover SS if necessary when Bo was hurt and we were in the middle of a playoff run. I'm not going to lose sleep over either of them but you do you, Dean.

[deanmike]

I'm definitely down to fleece the Mariners again, this time for Suarez.

 

Get it done Atkins, Espinal (2.7 surplus value) for Eugenio (8.2) straight up. This may seem like too big of a value disparity in the Jays' favour, but the Teo trade last year was also a big BTV win for the Jays. The only people who hated on the Teo trade were casuals who didn't know who Erik Swanson was.

[BTS]

I don't really known why the Ms are trading Suarez, but flipping them a couple of assets for the last two years of his deal are how you acquire a stopgap 2-3 win 3B. Not a 150M contract for a guy who's bat is hanging by a thread.

[deanmike]

I'd be on board with trading for Eugenio Suárez

 

Ernie Clement should do it

 

No joke it probably should actually do it. Even Espinal straight up might not be realistic enough of a fleecing considering how dumb the Mariners are.

[Terminator]

What if we traded for Suarez and he hit 50 dingers again.

[BTS]

The team should really be playing in the SP market if they have 25-30M in payroll space burning a hole in their pocket. I hope they don't get tunnel vision with the bats.

 

Gausman

Yamamoto/Nola/Glasnow/Gray

Berrios

Bassitt

Kikuchi

-----

Manoah

Tiedemann

 

There's nothing wrong with just stacking the rotation and getting the best stopgaps available with the lineup, and it will probably result in a better team than if they focus on Chapman or Bellinger simply because they're all that's available on the market.

[saskjayfan]

No not necessarily "no good" but he is old school - "short to the ball", just do a google search, there's a recent article on Fantragphs (I beleive it's from 2021 - he tells you his philosphy).

 

Also this from 2018

"Why Marlins Manager Don Mattingly Doesn't Buy Into "Launch Angle" | The Dan Patrick Show "

 

There's also a piece on Chris O'Leary's site where he breaks down Mattingly's swing (not his philosphy), showing him trying to create big lunch angle. So maybe Mattingly just can't explain what he does naturally at the plate.

 

Did you actually watch that clip? It's a rather misleading headline. Mattingly said if you focus on elevating the ball in batting practice against 60 mph you get into bad habits with your swing lengthening and then when you get to an actual game and face 95 up in the zone you have no chance. He also said you don't want to just pepper the ball all over the infield and give up your at bat. There's a balance between contact and aggression. He said there's room for a guy who strikes out a lot and hits 40 with some walks, but loading up with too many of those guys isn't ideal either. His answers seem pretty balanced and seems to acknowledge there are different types of hitters in the game.

[Ehjays]

The team should really be playing in the SP market if they have 25-30M in payroll space burning a hole in their pocket. I hope they don't get tunnel vision with the bats.

 

Gausman

Yamamoto/Nola/Glasnow/Gray

Berrios

Bassitt

Kikuchi

-----

Manoah

Tiedemann

 

There's nothing wrong with just stacking the rotation and getting the best stopgaps available with the lineup, and it will probably result in a better team than if they focus on Chapman or Bellinger simply because they're all that's available on the market.

 

Yes I totally agree, I didnt realize Atkins has scouted Yamamoto 3 different times in Japan as an article mentioned earlier on. I love the idea of going after the market you speak of, then using a Kikuchi as trade bait later when all SP are signed.

[Brownie19]

Did you actually watch that clip? It's a rather misleading headline. Mattingly said if you focus on elevating the ball in batting practice against 60 mph you get into bad habits with your swing lengthening and then when you get to an actual game and face 95 up in the zone you have no chance. He also said you don't want to just pepper the ball all over the infield and give up your at bat. There's a balance between contact and aggression. He said there's room for a guy who strikes out a lot and hits 40 with some walks, but loading up with too many of those guys isn't ideal either. His answers seem pretty balanced and seems to acknowledge there are different types of hitters in the game.

 

Can't expect people to do much more than read the headline these days.

[glory]

If the Jays can get Suarez for a reasonable price, then that wouldn't be a bad scenario. Has 1+1 left on his deal, so it's either going to be 1/13 or 2/26, and both are reasonable for the type of player he is. Much better than overpaying for Chapman or Candy on long term deals.

[John_Havok]

Dunno who this guy is but I doubt Toronto will miss Lantigua

 

And I also kind of doubt they want to pay Chapman $100M+

 

Yeah, i think the "priority" just refers to them figuring out their line in the sand regarding him first, before focusing elsewhere. I'd put the chances of Chappy returning to the Jays at like 5% or lower.

[Jonn]

What if we traded for Suarez and he hit 50 dingers again.

 

He's never hit 50 homeruns before but hit 49 in Great American Small Park