General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[wamco]

Pitching is great

 

Need to fill 2B, 3B and one corner OF stop with an above average bats in 2-3 of those spots. Offense needs more certainly because we just don't know what Springer/Vladdy/Kirk/Varsho will do in 2024.

 

I think white grabs the last bp spot as the long man. Out of options

[Terminator]

Moncada is owed $24.8M in 2024, and has a $5M buyout in the team option in 2025. So nearly $30M guaranteed.

 

He projects for 2.2 WAR, I think.

 

Hard to see that working. Ignoring salary, Moncada seems like a nice 2024 punt option though. I wonder if CHW would eat half the salary? That makes something like Pearson for Moncada an even swap.

 

Ah okay, I didn't realize he made that much more in the final year. I was just going off of the AAV.

 

How would his salary be calculated for tax purposes for the team that acquires him for that final year? Would it be 14 mil (the AAV of his deal and what it is for the ChiSox)? Or would does it change for his new team to the 24.8 mil?

 

ChiSox are cheapskates so he's definitely on the block if he's making that much and in order to move him they are going to have to eat some salary. I could see a Pearson for Moncada swap with the ChiSox eating about half of the salary.

[Laika]

Kind of want Toronto to come out of the offseason with some funky ass platoons all over the place.

 

LF: Gallo and McCutchen

 

s*** like that ^

 

Schneider, Hoskins, Biggio, Orelvis, Barger, Palmegiani all in house candidates for such platoons.

[Terminator]

Idk what McCutchen did to get his walk rate up that high again but if he can repeat that sign me up.

[MikeM3]

Yeah right now Manoah is probably the #5 and Francis and Tiedemann are in AAA as the main MLB depth. White probably the longman to start the year but I don't think we can rely on him to be an MLB SP.

 

Would be cool to move Horwitz or someone for a backend SP with options.

 

Need some Manaea, Junis, Velasquez types from FA

[Eat My Shatkins]

I think our pitching needs way more depth because it's very unlikely they'll all be healthy again

 

They absolutely need some more depth, but the top 4 are notoriously durable so it's not crazy to think they'll all be healthy again.

 

Plus Manoah is also a workhorse, if he isn't ass again he can eat a lot of innings.

[BTS]

Need some Manaea, Junis, Velasquez types from FA

 

Manaea opted out of his 12.5M option. Seems to think his big second half will get him more than that. I wouldn't want him at like 15M.

[Laika]

Manaea opted out of his 12.5M option. Seems to think his big second half will get him more than that. I wouldn't want him at like 15M.

 

wtf he did?

 

every time I checked a box score this year he was getting destroyed

[Laika]

so..... hire David Ross?

[Terminator]

Need some Manaea, Junis, Velasquez types from FA

 

The problem with guys like that is we don't really have a spot in the current rotation for them but there are probably some s***** teams who do.

[Brownie19]

Need some Manaea, Junis, Velasquez types from FA

 

Where are you going to put those guys? In the bullpen? AAA? You typically can't just sign quality SP depth and stash it in AAA. The solid guys will sign with teams that need them at the ML level right now...

 

Ricky, Francis, White, Thompson, Macko - those types of guys are going to be your #6 thru #10 starters next year more than likely.

[Laika]

Where are you going to put those guys? In the bullpen? AAA? You typically can't just sign quality SP depth and stash it in AAA. The solid guys will sign with teams that need them at the ML level right now...

 

Ricky, Francis, White, Thompson, Macko - those types of guys are going to be your #6 thru #10 starters next year more than likely.

 

that's the beauty of it

 

when SFG signs guys like this, they are coming off injury or terrible seasons so they just take a role as SP6 and starting in their pen.

 

some candidates in the current FA crop would be guys like Severino, Rich Hill, Erick Fedde (check his KBO stats), Weaver, Odorizzi, Fujinami, Keller, Boyd

 

Toronto would need to do some musical chairs in the pen though and trade some traditional RP. Or non-tender a couple.

[wilko]

They absolutely need some more depth, but the top 4 are notoriously durable so it's not crazy to think they'll all be healthy again.

 

Plus Manoah is also a workhorse, if he isn't ass again he can eat a lot of innings.

 

[MikeM3]

Where are you going to put those guys? In the bullpen? AAA? You typically can't just sign quality SP depth and stash it in AAA. The solid guys will sign with teams that need them at the ML level right now...

 

Ricky, Francis, White, Thompson, Macko - those types of guys are going to be your #6 thru #10 starters next year more than likely.

 

I don't know what Manoah looks like right now. We might actually have a rotation slot open. Beyond that, Kikuchi is an expiring and might not be re-signed. He can be moved for futures and you sell these MLB FAs on an open rotation slot or at worst they're #6s in the pen. Someone like Junis was already doing that.

 

Like hey we have at least one spot open and also Manoahs slot is a question mark so just sign here and compete with these other 2 guys and that's basically how SFG creates depth. You have to slightly weaken your 4/5 but you have 6/7/8

[L54]

Wow I had no idea Erick Fedde was a KBO stud this year

[wilko]

Wow I had no idea Erick Fedde was a KBO stud this year

 

Very impressive numbers. Good for him!

[jaysblue]

Need some Manaea, Junis, Velasquez types from FA

 

Can't sign all of those guys, but definitely one of them as SP insurance is doable. Junis would be a nice add. Has shown he could be successful as a starter over a short period of time and can pitch multiple innings out of the pen if need be.

[jaysblue]

Where are you going to put those guys? In the bullpen? AAA? You typically can't just sign quality SP depth and stash it in AAA. The solid guys will sign with teams that need them at the ML level right now...

 

Ricky, Francis, White, Thompson, Macko - those types of guys are going to be your #6 thru #10 starters next year more than likely.

 

I don't think MikeM was suggesting to sign all of those guys together. But definitely one of them would be a nice add as some quality SP depth that you can keep on the MLB roster. I'm sure one of those guys would sign here with an open competition for the No. 5 spot in the rotation.

[jaysblue]

I don't know what Manoah looks like right now. We might actually have a rotation slot open. Beyond that, Kikuchi is an expiring and might not be re-signed. He can be moved for futures and you sell these MLB FAs on an open rotation slot or at worst they're #6s in the pen. Someone like Junis was already doing that.

 

Like hey we have at least one spot open and also Manoahs slot is a question mark so just sign here and compete with these other 2 guys and that's basically how SFG creates depth. You have to slightly weaken your 4/5 but you have 6/7/8

 

I doubt a team offers Jake Junis a guaranteed SP role unless it's a team like Oakland or KC haha. If the Jays show that they have open competition for the No. 5 spot in the rotation (which they likely do), signing an arm like Junis or Velasquez definitely will be easier.

[jaysblue]

Manaea opted out of his 12.5M option. Seems to think his big second half will get him more than that. I wouldn't want him at like 15M.

 

Who is his agent? Geez I doubt he gets more than $12.5M. Would have taken the guaranteed money. Unless he really wants out of San Fran.

[MikeM3]

I doubt a team offers Jake Junis a guaranteed SP role unless it's a team like Oakland or KC haha. If the Jays show that they have open competition for the No. 5 spot in the rotation (which they likely do), signing an arm like Junis or Velasquez definitely will be easier.

 

He won't get guaranteed. I'd definitely take him as a long man who can start though.

 

Personally, I'd live with a 5th slot that's Francis opener + Junis or some turns you could do another RP + Wood or some other 6th SP type.

 

You get milb depth for Kikuchi and you have 13M or whatever to play with. Kikuchi's not going in the playoffs anyways and he's probably not re-signing.

[jaysblue]

They absolutely need some more depth, but the top 4 are notoriously durable so it's not crazy to think they'll all be healthy again.

 

Plus Manoah is also a workhorse, if he isn't ass again he can eat a lot of innings.

 

It's not crazy to think they'll all be healthy again, but can't go into 2024 and just assume they all will. It's better to be safe than sorry.

 

As well, in terms of performance, does Kikuchi build off his strong 2023 season? Does Gausman still pitch as one of the best pitchers in baseball or does he lose a tick? Bassitt is going to be 35 and just threw a career high of 200 innings. Does Berrios repeat his 2023 season? Which Manoah do the Jays end up getting? Outside of Manoah, 4/5ths of the Jays rotation is going to be 30 or above at some point next season.

[Terminator]

He won't get guaranteed. I'd definitely take him as a long man who can start though.

 

Personally, I'd live with a 5th slot that's Francis opener + Junis or some turns you could do another RP + Wood or some other 6th SP type.

 

You get milb depth for Kikuchi and you have 13M or whatever to play with. Kikuchi's not going in the playoffs anyways and he's probably not re-signing.

 

I see some of what you are saying but this doesn't make our pitching depth better IMO.

 

Kikuchi is a backend SP for us right now (and a pretty decent one at that?) and Francis is a depth starter. If you dump Kikuchi and then slide Francis up, how does that make the depth better? Even if you add a Junis or whoever.

[Brownie19]

I don't think MikeM was suggesting to sign all of those guys together. But definitely one of them would be a nice add as some quality SP depth that you can keep on the MLB roster. I'm sure one of those guys would sign here with an open competition for the No. 5 spot in the rotation.

 

I thought that was obvious. I wasn't suggesting he thought we'd sign all of them. All I'm saying is that unless you have a legit spot available in your rotation, it's hard to "sign" SP depth guys that will be your #6 through #10. Nobody wants to sign to pitch in AAA or the pen when another team will put them right into the rotation.

[jaysblue]

I thought that was obvious. I wasn't suggesting he thought we'd sign all of them. All I'm saying is that unless you have a legit spot available in your rotation, it's hard to "sign" SP depth guys that will be your #6 through #10. Nobody wants to sign to pitch in AAA or the pen when another team will put them right into the rotation.

 

The Jays do have an open spot though in their rotation right? Is Manoah guaranteed the No. 5 spot? I'm sure someone like Junis or Velasquez or whoever would sign here if they know they can compete for a rotation spot.

 

Which other teams would put them right into the rotation, other than Oakland or KC or maybe a team like Colorado?

[AdamGreenwood]

This is way too much money for Chad Green.

He's good but $11 million a season for him, or any non-closing reliever? Terrible.

Feels like we could have plucked someone out of FA for way less, that is almost as good.

 

Would have preferred that $22 million go towards Bellinger or YY or Rhys Hoskins or Jung-Hoo Lee

[MikeM3]

I see some of what you are saying but this doesn't make our pitching depth better IMO.

 

Kikuchi is a backend SP for us right now (and a pretty decent one at that?) and Francis is a depth starter. If you dump Kikuchi and then slide Francis up, how does that make the depth better? Even if you add a Junis or whoever.

 

I'd basically be aiming for Junis and Velasquez, Nick Martinez or Fedde. And the assets we get for Kikuchi and the money we save in the payroll. So you're gaining tons of depth all over the place.

 

And I'm fine opening for a Junis, Martinez or Velasquez type because I think Francis is good for 2 IP. You could baby Tiedemann as well and let him go 3 or 4 because that's probably what they're gonna do anyways right

 

Again I'm only doing this because we're not using Kikuchi in the playoffs and he's probably not re-signing. I'd just liquidate him.

 

I just don't think we have the innings if someone gets hurt as we currently stand

[jaysblue]

This is way too much money for Chad Green.

He's good but $11 million a season for him, or any non-closing reliever? Terrible.

Feels like we could have plucked someone out of FA for way less, that is almost as good.

 

Would have preferred that $22 million go towards Bellinger or YY or Rhys Hoskins or Jung-Hoo Lee

 

As long as his contract doesn't tie down the Jays in regards to spending this offseason or at the trade deadline, I'm fine with it. If we're hearing that the Jays don't have enough payroll available later on this offseason to sign a solid bat or two, then I would be pissed.

[Terminator]

This is way too much money for Chad Green.

He's good but $11 million a season for him, or any non-closing reliever? Terrible.

Feels like we could have plucked someone out of FA for way less, that is almost as good.

 

Would have preferred that $22 million go towards Bellinger or YY or Rhys Hoskins or Jung-Hoo Lee

 

I actually think Green on a 2 year, 21 million dollar deal is under market.

 

Robert Suarez got 5 years and 46 mil last year. Montero got 3 years, 33 million. Heck, Pierce Johnson just got 2 years and over 14 mil. He'll be entering his age 33 season and has an ERA over 4 for his career.

[deanmike]

IIRC last offseason all of Atkins' notable position player signings had a projected 2023 fWAR of at least 1. Here's the list of 2024 position player FAs (other than catchers) with a projected 2024 fWAR of at least 1:

 

Shohei Ohtani DH/SP 4.0

Matt Chapman 3B 2.6

Cody Bellinger CF/1B 2.4

Amed Rosario SS/2B 2.3

Rhys Hoskins 1B 2.0

Jorge Soler RF/LF/DH 1.8

Jeimer Candelario 3B/1B 1.8

Harrison Bader CF 1.6

Joc Pederson DH/LF/RF 1.5

Tim Anderson SS/2B 1.5

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF 1.4

Teoscar Hernández RF/LF 1.4

Michael Brantley DH/LF 1.3

Gio Urshela 3B/1B/SS 1.1

Adam Frazier 2B 1.1

Kevin Kiermaier CF 1.1

Tommy Pham LF/RF 1.0

Jean Segura 2B/3B 1.0

Michael A. Taylor CF 1.0

 

Should be safe to say that with the holes that need filling on this roster, Jays will likely be in on a lot of these names.