General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[infinitebook]

We have six games left against the Rays this season (3 at the trop and 3 at home) if we go .500 for those we have a legit shot at finishing the season with a better record than the Astros (i know, it doesn't mean much but...). What a season. Seems mostly like an underachievement but here we are in the thick of it.

 

With the O's win today they are 2 games up on the Rays with the tiebreaker. Its possible the Rays won't have anything to play for in that final series and we could be seeing them rest some regulars.

[Stangstag]

Jays trolling us, gonna miss the playsoffs by 1 game or lose a tie-breaker lmao

 

This is what Im thinking will happen. Keeping my expectations tempered.

 

If they manage to get in, i’ll be pleasantly surprised. I will also have to cancel family dinner plans on October 3rd lol

[Omar]

With the O's win today they are 2 games up on the Rays with the tiebreaker. Its possible the Rays won't have anything to play for in that final series and we could be seeing them rest some regulars.

 

 

Good point.

[G-Snarls]

Couldn't have asked for a better weekend than this:

 

[bones10]

So is biggio good or what?

[L54]

So is biggio good or what?

 

I think his wRC+ since May 1 is 118

 

A nice bench piece. Baseball rat who fills that role well because he’s always prepared and has a high baseball IQ. Above average speed.

[WryNGinger]

I think his wRC+ since May 1 is 118

 

A nice bench piece. Baseball rat who fills that role well because he’s always prepared and has a high baseball IQ. Above average speed.

 

I don't have a strong opinion on him on the team to be honest but he is a guy I can root for.

 

I do think that in 10 years after his career is over I would like him on the coaching staff. He is a really smart ball player.

[harvey16]

Couldn't have asked for a better weekend than this:

 

 

Jays post season odds went from 75% down to 40% after getting swept by Texas and now back up to 85% with the sweep of Boston. What a roller coaster ride. We basically need to play .500 ball now over the last 12 games and we should take a WC spot, preferably WC 3 and we then get to face the Twins. Much better matchup then having to face either the Rays or Os. Bottom line though is just get in and anything can happen. With the pitching staff we have, I could see us going deep, especially if the bats heat up at the right time.

[deanmike]

If the Jays end up finishing 1 game below Texas, meaning Texas has to go to the Trop and we get the Twins, many Jays fans will be celebrating Texas' sweep of us in retrospect.

[Laika]

Biggio is simply a Big Time player.

[Laika]

Some "worst case scenarios" where TEX/SEA/HOU never lose to a non-TEX/HOU/SEA team:

 

A: Texas never loses again, Seattle only loses to Texas, Houston only loses to Seattle:

 

Texas 95 wins, Seattle 87 wins, Houston 92 wins.

Jays need to go 5-7.

 

B: Seattle never loses again, Texas only loses to Seattle, Houston only loses to Seattle:

Houston 92 wins, Seattle 94 wins, Texas 88 wins.

Jays need to go 6-6.

 

C: Seattle goes 4-3 against Texas and wins the rest, Texas wins the rest, Houston only loses to Seattle:

Houston 92 wins, Seattle 91 wins, Texas 91 wins.

Jays need to go 9-3.

 

D: Texas goes 4-3 against Seattle and wins the rest, Seattle wins the rest, Houston only loses to Seattle:

Houston 92 wins, Texas 92 wins, Seattle 90 wins.

Jays need to go 8-4.

 

"the rest" for:

Texas is BOSx3 and LAAx3 [and SEAx7 of course]

Seattle is OAKx3 [and TEXx7 and HOUx3 of course]

Houston is BALx3 and KCRx3 and ARZx3

 

 

This can just swing in so many different ways. Toronto could be mediocre and sneak in, or they may need to stomp TB and NYY.

[Olerud363]

Some "worst case scenarios" where TEX/SEA/HOU never lose to a non-TEX/HOU/SEA team:

 

A: Texas never loses again, Seattle only loses to Texas, Houston only loses to Seattle:

 

Texas 95 wins, Seattle 87 wins, Houston 92 wins.

Jays need to go 5-7.

 

B: Seattle never loses again, Texas only loses to Seattle, Houston only loses to Seattle:

Houston 92 wins, Seattle 94 wins, Texas 88 wins.

Jays need to go 6-6.

 

C: Seattle goes 4-3 against Texas and wins the rest, Texas wins the rest, Houston only loses to Seattle:

Houston 92 wins, Seattle 91 wins, Texas 91 wins.

Jays need to go 9-3.

 

D: Texas goes 4-3 against Seattle and wins the rest, Seattle wins the rest, Houston only loses to Seattle:

Houston 92 wins, Texas 92 wins, Seattle 90 wins.

Jays need to go 8-4.

 

"the rest" for:

Texas is BOSx3 and LAAx3 [and SEAx7 of course]

Seattle is OAKx3 [and TEXx7 and HOUx3 of course]

Houston is BALx3 and KCRx3 and ARZx3

 

 

This can just swing in so many different ways. Toronto could be mediocre and sneak in, or they may need to stomp TB and NYY.

 

They are in a comparable situation to that they were in 2 years ago. Leading the NY Yankees by 1.5 games with 10 to go. 1 behind Boston. With NY and Boston playing a series.

 

Very sad thing that happened 2 years ago.

 

1. Robbie Ray in his last inning as a Jay enters the 6th of the key game of the season leading 2-1, gives up several homers that inning effectively ending the Blue Jays season

 

before that sad things that happened

 

1. The Yankees have a 7 game win streak starting at this point in 2021 including sweep of Boston. This was bad because Yankees were the trailing team at the time, and while the sweep put Boston back in play, it would have been better if Boston won at least one game.

2. The Twins (leading 5-0) and Nationals (leading 5-1 or something) blow their leads late in game. The latter was last day of season so very sad, so many tears. The former was actually September 13th, but the Yankees could have gone down 2 games and of course the way it turned out every game was important.

3. With Jays leading 2-1 against detroit, Marcus Semien throws a 30 foot throw in the dirt, it bounces softly and up toward Vladdy's glove ever so softly, but Vladdy wiffs, Jays lose (every game turned out to be vital)

4. Others may not remember this, but this one haunts me for some reason. Jays playing Boston in August at home. Double header. Leadin 1-0 late in game. Verdugo and Vladdy both hit hard fly balls to center. Vladdy's of course has a bit more exit V. Verdugo's of course leaves the Yard and Vladdy's (which would have won the game) get's caught in a miracle catch at the top of the wall. I don't think Vladdy's fly balls go 30 foot shorter than they should. But do they go 5 feet shorter than they should? I think they might. So sad.

 

The point is that much pain could ahead (or maybe joy, who knows), and a couple of weird painful things, could lead to all the other stupid things earlier in the season coming back to haunt.

 

Or maybe it will all be awesome? 2021 was so similar in some ways. Jays had a miracle run in September (earlier) to go from like 6 games back of playoffs, to 1 up. Of course they were the team of destiny. No. Not the team of destiny. Maybe this year?

[Dick_Pole]

Whining about a 5 year old trade again. Confirmed we have reached maximum Krylian-level negativity on the board and Jays are about to get hot. I assume we are not going to hear the end of the Donaldson whining until this generation of posters die out.

 

This board never lies. More Donaldson whining and the Jays would probably win the division. Unfortunately I don't think we can fake it and the cautious optimism seeping in now probably means it'll be a struggle going forward. Why can't you dildos just remain hopelessly negative? Pretend that the Jays' shot at the playoffs is at the same level as you ever owning your own home in Canada.

[Grant77]

This board never lies. More Donaldson whining and the Jays would probably win the division. Unfortunately I don't think we can fake it and the cautious optimism seeping in now probably means it'll be a struggle going forward. Why can't you dildos just remain hopelessly negative? Pretend that the Jays' shot at the playoffs is at the same level as you ever owning your own home in Canada.

 

So 100% then. Good!

[wilko]

Jays post season odds went from 75% down to 40% after getting swept by Texas and now back up to 85% with the sweep of Boston. What a roller coaster ride. We basically need to play .500 ball now over the last 12 games and we should take a WC spot, preferably WC 3 and we then get to face the Twins. Much better matchup then having to face either the Rays or Os. Bottom line though is just get in and anything can happen. With the pitching staff we have, I could see us going deep, especially if the bats heat up at the right time.

 

I'm confused with the WC 1, 2, 3. Is it a best of 3 for all these spots now? No longer a one game playoff?

[Masterbather]

Some "worst case scenarios" where TEX/SEA/HOU never lose to a non-TEX/HOU/SEA team:

 

A: Texas never loses again, Seattle only loses to Texas, Houston only loses to Seattle:

 

Texas 95 wins, Seattle 87 wins, Houston 92 wins.

Jays need to go 5-7.

 

B: Seattle never loses again, Texas only loses to Seattle, Houston only loses to Seattle:

Houston 92 wins, Seattle 94 wins, Texas 88 wins.

Jays need to go 6-6.

 

C: Seattle goes 4-3 against Texas and wins the rest, Texas wins the rest, Houston only loses to Seattle:

Houston 92 wins, Seattle 91 wins, Texas 91 wins.

Jays need to go 9-3.

 

D: Texas goes 4-3 against Seattle and wins the rest, Seattle wins the rest, Houston only loses to Seattle:

Houston 92 wins, Texas 92 wins, Seattle 90 wins.

Jays need to go 8-4.

 

"the rest" for:

Texas is BOSx3 and LAAx3 [and SEAx7 of course]

Seattle is OAKx3 [and TEXx7 and HOUx3 of course]

Houston is BALx3 and KCRx3 and ARZx3

 

 

This can just swing in so many different ways. Toronto could be mediocre and sneak in, or they may need to stomp TB and NYY.

 

None of those scenarios is likely because I don't think any of those teams win the rest. I do understand these were the worst case scenarios.

 

I think the number is probably 88 or 89 wins if the tiebreaker is an issue, which it could be for us.

 

I think if we go 6-6, we're safe. 5-7 it might get sticky. It will be tough. Tampa still has something to play for, and believe it or not, I think the Yankees believe they're still alive, given that they play us six times and that Texas and Seattle play seven times, that gives them hope even if it's statistically unrealistic. I think they will play us as if their season is on the line.

[John_Havok]

I'm confused with the WC 1, 2, 3. Is it a best of 3 for all these spots now? No longer a one game playoff?

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-playoff-format-faq

 

Condensed version is top 2 division winners get a bye, Division winner with 3rd best record hosts WC 3 in a best of 3. WC 1 hosts WC 2 in a best of 3

[Stangstag]

I'm confused with the WC 1, 2, 3. Is it a best of 3 for all these spots now? No longer a one game playoff?

 

Where have you been for the last couple years

[G-Snarls]

So essentially no chance of a home WC series right?

 

WC 1 is essentially out of reach

 

WC 2 or WC 3 both mean you're playing on the road

[G-Snarls]

Where have you been for the last couple years

 

Really though

 

Jays have fallen victim in 2 of the last 3 WC rounds...

[Stangstag]

So essentially no chance of a home WC series right?

 

WC 1 is essentially out of reach

 

WC 2 or WC 3 both mean you're playing on the road

 

Yeah. Totally fine though IMO. We know what happened last year… plus the Jays offense has been extremely bad at home this year.

 

Win the WC series and we are guaranteed at least 1 home game in the ALDS

[Stangstag]

Yeah

 

Jays have fallen victim in 2/3 WC rounds the last 3 years

 

Im aware last year was the first season to do it, but it was announced before the season started. Therefore, its been almost 2 years since the new format was implemented.

 

Regardless, how did Wilko completely miss what happened to the Jays last year

[wilko]

Im aware last year was the first season to do it, but it was announced before the season started. Therefore, its been almost 2 years since the new format was implemented.

 

Regardless, how did Wilko completely miss what happened to the Jays last year

 

I got blackout drunk and forgot.

[DonJays]

I got blackout drunk and forgot.

 

I like your style

[BCZ]

I think his wRC+ since May 1 is 118

 

A nice bench piece. Baseball rat who fills that role well because he’s always prepared and has a high baseball IQ. Above average speed.

 

wRC+ with scattered playing time rarely tells the truth. Give a guy everyday ABs and he could be closer to what he's been lately.

 

As happens with a lot of players, the guy got injured and didn't bounce back very well... everyone decided he was replacement level player and somehow his first two seasons we're just a fluke. Now the guy is healthy and looking really good. There's a chance. Not saying, just saying.

[harvey16]

Jays could potentially finish with the 3rd best record in the AL and have to play on the road in the WC round, while Minnesota has the 6th best record and gets potentially 3 home games, that's f'ed up. Now with a more balanced schedule, really need to rid of priority seeding for division winners. Teams in perennially strong divisions like the AL East always get shafted. If Jays were in the Central they'd be cruising to a division title right now instead of battling for a playoff spot.

[John_Havok]

Jays could potentially finish with the 3rd best record in the AL and have to play on the road in the WC round, while Minnesota has the 6th best record and gets potentially 3 home games, that's f'ed up. Now with a more balanced schedule, really need to rid of priority seeding for division winners. Teams in perennially strong divisions like the AL East always get shafted. If Jays were in the Central they'd be cruising to a division title right now instead of battling for a playoff spot.

 

Happens pretty much every year. THe problem with balancing schedules is that travel becomes exceptionally unbalanced. West coast teams already travel far more than central teams and east teams and that disparity would only get wider. I get that many don't really think of this as much of a factor, but it is.

[Omar]

Jays could potentially finish with the 3rd best record in the AL and have to play on the road in the WC round, while Minnesota has the 6th best record and gets potentially 3 home games, that's f'ed up. Now with a more balanced schedule, really need to rid of priority seeding for division winners. Teams in perennially strong divisions like the AL East always get shafted. If Jays were in the Central they'd be cruising to a division title right now instead of battling for a playoff spot.

 

Yes they should just eliminate the divisions altogether. I think they will do that eventually once they add another team. Or maybe go back to the old AL east/west.

[harvey16]

Happens pretty much every year. THe problem with balancing schedules is that travel becomes exceptionally unbalanced. West coast teams already travel far more than central teams and east teams and that disparity would only get wider. I get that many don't really think of this as much of a factor, but it is.

 

I have no problem with the current schedule, playing more games against teams in your division, glad it's a little more balanced now at least, but do away with the priority seedings for division winners. Could even still guarantee that division winners get playoff spots, but don't give them priority 1,2,3 seedings. Just seed the teams based on record alone.

[Terminator]

Would love to see them abolish the divisions altogether and just go AL and NL with the top 6 making the playoffs and the top 2 getting byes. Would make the standings so much easier to look at.

 

They could even make getting the top record in each league special by calling that the "Pennant". So for example if the Braves get the top record in the NL this year they win the "National League Pennant".