General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[Laika]

Hard agree

 

f*** everything

[Olerud363]

SINCE 1993 there was never been a year where the Jays were solid wire to wire. Never been a fun non-stressful year. Even 2015 they were s*** to 100 games then a miracle run.

 

We have the best pitching in baseball but the hitting sucks is it 1997? Or 2008? Or 2023? f*** if I know.

 

We have a young slugger hitting .310 with power and winning the silver slugger, oh... don't blink now he's hitting like .250 or so with a .410 slugging. COLLAPSE! Is it Vernon Wells? Is it Vladimir Guerrero Jr.? Is it Adam Lind. I don't f***ing really know to be honest it all blurs together now.

 

We fired John Gibbons and the new manager is a f***ing mess... Is it 2009? 2019? Who the f*** knows.

 

We've got a nice looking young pitcher who will be part of the rotation for the next 5 years... oh wait a minute no we don't. His ERA is now 5.7 and his career is over like 3 months after getting Cy Young Votes, that was Romero right? Oh wait was it that other guy Alex... it's all a blur.

 

OK. Now it's our year. Oh wait Tampa Bay is all of a sudden a 98 win team on the verge of a 6 year run... or is that Baltimore? Or both. f*** if I know. It's all blurring together.

 

OK. More playoff spots, even though Tampa Bay and Baltimore are dynamite on a 60 million dollar payroll, the Yankees and Red Sox are bad... they are bad right? Oh don't worry wait 6 months and they'll both be great again with smart FO and the highest payrolls in baseball... don't believe me. You will in 6 months.

 

f*** this team. Same thing for 30 years.

[Laika]

lmao

 

it hurts

 

perennial bridesmaid team

 

forever #3 in the division

[Jonn]

It doesn’t seem like the Jays can ever put everything together this Season it’s frustrating. One of the cogs always falls apart.

 

The Jays are still in position to control their own Destiny. But unless they win the next 2 games and atleast split the series it makes it much tougher. Especially considering the performance against the AL East this Season. And none of those teams are laying down for us.

[Laika]

The Jays are going to host the Yankees and get shutout three games in a row by like, Jhonny Brito, Michael King, and Randy Vasquez.

 

The five rookies filling out the NYY lineup will all have multiple extra base hits.

 

Yimi Garcia will throw lots of strikes and still give up 2 runs blowing a tie in the 6th inning

 

It is prophecy

[Laika]

PLAYER --- 2022 WAR --- 2023 WAR

 

Vlad --- 2.9 --- 0.4

Varsho --- 4.8 --- 1.6

Springer --- 4.3 --- 2.2

Bo --- 4.5 --- 3.1

Chapman --- 4.2 --- 3.2

Jansen --- 2.6 --- 1.9

Kirk --- 3.9 --- 1.3

Biggio --- 1.4 --- 0.7

Espinal --- 2.3 --- (0.1)

 

16.6 WAR decline from these bats in one year

 

Of course, the pitching aside from Manoah and Cimber has gone in the other direction. But Manoah's 4.1 to (0.4) negates the positive trends from Kikuchi and Berrios.

[Laika]

Pain.

[DigitalRock]

PLAYER --- 2022 WAR --- 2023 WAR

 

Vlad --- 2.9 --- 0.4

Varsho --- 4.8 --- 1.6

Springer --- 4.3 --- 2.2

Bo --- 4.5 --- 3.1

Chapman --- 4.2 --- 3.2

Jansen --- 2.6 --- 1.9

Kirk --- 3.9 --- 1.3

Biggio --- 1.4 --- 0.7

Espinal --- 2.3 --- (0.1)

 

16.6 WAR decline from these bats in one year

 

Of course, the pitching aside from Manoah and Cimber has gone in the other direction. But Manoah's 4.1 to (0.4) negates the positive trends from Kikuchi and Berrios.

 

Exactly yet idiots Biden the Varsho trade. That trade may suck but the reason the jays are where they are is this.

[Stangstag]

The 2006 to 2010 teams were just as talented as either the 2013-2017 iteration or the 2020-2023 but had bad luck

 

1. 2006 team was great hitting wise but didn't score as many runs as they should have, and pitching was bad.

2. Somehow by 2008 with mostly the same characters they were the best pitching team in baseball but no longer scoring runs. Perhaps similar to this team in a way (improved defense but worse hitting).

3. Their pythag in 2008 was 93 wins, but they won 86.

4. There was no second wild card, let along a 3rd.

5. The Yankees and Red Sox were serious power house organizations and in 2008 TBR became TBR.

6. They traded Halladay for what turned out to be very little in 2009, but in 2010 the offense rebounded, and with Halladay they could have won that year (In one sense no one could have predicted Bautista becoming Bautista, but Adam Lind and Aaron Hill collapsed in 2010, so overall perhaps AA (who just took over) should have tried more in 2010)

7. They replaced John Gibbons with a horrible manager who was universally hated in the clubhouse and led to a toxic 2009.

 

2006-2010 was a mostly nice team in a lot of ways, with some bad luck, crazy good competition, and a few terrible choices, no different than the last 4 years.

 

Man this is depressing for me to read

[glory]

It doesn’t seem like the Jays can ever put everything together this Season it’s frustrating. One of the cogs always falls apart.

 

The Jays are still in position to control their own Destiny. But unless they win the next 2 games and atleast split the series it makes it much tougher. Especially considering the performance against the AL East this Season. And none of those teams are laying down for us.

 

The one benefit for the Jays is that the Rangers and Mariners play each other 7 times. That’s 7 days where at least one of those 2 teams is guaranteed to lose. Of course the Jays also have to win, which is the hard part.

 

The Jays have been ass against the AL East and face nothing but ALE opponents after this series. It’s going to be a tough last couple of weeks.

[glory]

The 2006 to 2010 teams were just as talented as either the 2013-2017 iteration or the 2020-2023 but had bad luck

 

1. 2006 team was great hitting wise but didn't score as many runs as they should have, and pitching was bad.

2. Somehow by 2008 with mostly the same characters they were the best pitching team in baseball but no longer scoring runs. Perhaps similar to this team in a way (improved defense but worse hitting).

3. Their pythag in 2008 was 93 wins, but they won 86.

4. There was no second wild card, let along a 3rd.

5. The Yankees and Red Sox were serious power house organizations and in 2008 TBR became TBR.

6. They traded Halladay for what turned out to be very little in 2009, but in 2010 the offense rebounded, and with Halladay they could have won that year (In one sense no one could have predicted Bautista becoming Bautista, but Adam Lind and Aaron Hill collapsed in 2010, so overall perhaps AA (who just took over) should have tried more in 2010)

7. They replaced John Gibbons with a horrible manager who was universally hated in the clubhouse and led to a toxic 2009.

 

2006-2010 was a mostly nice team in a lot of ways, with some bad luck, crazy good competition, and a few terrible choices, no different than the last 4 years.

 

This season does resemble 2008. IIRC that year they had the best pitching in the league but stopped hitting for power (or hitting period) until Cito came on board. I vaguely remember Matt Stairs blaming the hitting coach for messing some of the hitters up (in his opinion). Thankfully there are 3 WC’s now so the Jays have a better shot than they did in 2008, but the parallels are there.

[Daniel Labude]

Exactly yet idiots Biden the Varsho trade. That trade may suck but the reason the jays are where they are is this.

 

The reason is, the total drop in power and offense across the board in favor of defensive WAR and contact hitting

 

We only have 6 qualified hitters a day only 3 above 108 wRC+

[Masterbather]

This is just such an unlikable team. They're not fun to watch. The players I look forward to watching most in the lineup are the AAA guys because at least I know they'll have good at bats.

 

This team will win nothing even if it stumbles and falls backwards into the playoffs. I can't believe there's still anyone who thinks that this team can win a championship.

 

There were people that were offended at me saying that this team MIGHT be a playoff team at the beginning of the season. I'm not surprised that Guerrero continued to decline because he has been declining since the first half of 2021. Not surprised about Varsho because I saw around 50 diamondback games last year, I knew his bat was s***. Kirk had one breakout year but that's not a trend. These things are not excuses especially when we had as much good luck with the pitching staff even with Manoah regressing beyond the regression that most of us expected anyhow.

 

This team needs a shake up and it starts with leadership. Get some f***ers in here that have a spine and will hold players accountable.

[Captain_Obvious]

Try this line-up:

 

1. DH Springer

2. 3B Biggio

3. SS Bichette

4. 2B Schneider

5. 1B Horwitz

6. C Kirk

7. RF Lukes

8. LF Merrifield

9. CF Kiermaier

 

I bet this line-up does far better than anyone thinks just because it's filled with guys who guys great ABs.

 

I like it except I would use Varsho over Merrifield. Although Varsho is not hitting much, Merrifield has been even worse over the past month and is not as good defensively.

[BigCecil]

The 2006 to 2010 teams were just as talented as either the 2013-2017 iteration or the 2020-2023 but had bad luck

 

1. 2006 team was great hitting wise but didn't score as many runs as they should have, and pitching was bad.

2. Somehow by 2008 with mostly the same characters they were the best pitching team in baseball but no longer scoring runs. Perhaps similar to this team in a way (improved defense but worse hitting).

3. Their pythag in 2008 was 93 wins, but they won 86.

4. There was no second wild card, let along a 3rd.

5. The Yankees and Red Sox were serious power house organizations and in 2008 TBR became TBR.

6. They traded Halladay for what turned out to be very little in 2009, but in 2010 the offense rebounded, and with Halladay they could have won that year (In one sense no one could have predicted Bautista becoming Bautista, but Adam Lind and Aaron Hill collapsed in 2010, so overall perhaps AA (who just took over) should have tried more in 2010)

7. They replaced John Gibbons with a horrible manager who was universally hated in the clubhouse and led to a toxic 2009.

 

2006-2010 was a mostly nice team in a lot of ways, with some bad luck, crazy good competition, and a few terrible choices, no different than the last 4 years.

 

This is a good summary. Been watching baseball since the 70s. We have seen a lot of team "windows" that give some perspective.

 

This team is just not, yet anyway, the powerhouse with "waves" from the minors perennial sustainable powerhouse contender we hoped when Shatkins took over in 2016-17. This window is coming to a close and facing some huge decisions rapidly.

[burlingtonbandit]

Atkins needs to be fired.

 

He's terrible with the media where he comes off as a huge phony. Terrible at contract negotiations (Some decent signings over the past few years but at the time a lot of them seem like overpays or at the least are market value). And the farm system hasn't really done anything either and we are in year 7. Shapiro seems like a pretty good President but I would get rid of Atkins.

[Spanky99]

The meltdown is epic up in this s***.

[bones10]

PLAYER --- 2022 WAR --- 2023 WAR

 

Vlad --- 2.9 --- 0.4

Varsho --- 4.8 --- 1.6

Springer --- 4.3 --- 2.2

Bo --- 4.5 --- 3.1

Chapman --- 4.2 --- 3.2

Jansen --- 2.6 --- 1.9

Kirk --- 3.9 --- 1.3

Biggio --- 1.4 --- 0.7

Espinal --- 2.3 --- (0.1)

 

16.6 WAR decline from these bats in one year

 

Of course, the pitching aside from Manoah and Cimber has gone in the other direction. But Manoah's 4.1 to (0.4) negates the positive trends from Kikuchi and Berrios.

 

How in the f*** did this even happen

[thatoneguy]

The meltdown is epic up in this s***.

 

Honestly, for good reason.

[BigCecil]

The meltdown is epic up in this s***.

 

Its about 1/10th of what it is in BOS and NY over their seasons so far.

 

Lets hope we bounce into the playoffs - suddenly get hot and roll to a 3rd ring. Then you can make fun of any of us who panicked and we'll happily take it.

[Laika]

How in the f*** did this even happen

 

Good question

 

My only idea is that the source of power was in fact Le Barrio or the Homerun Jacket

[THANOS]

PLAYER --- 2022 WAR --- 2023 WAR

 

Vlad --- 2.9 --- 0.4

Varsho --- 4.8 --- 1.6

Springer --- 4.3 --- 2.2

Bo --- 4.5 --- 3.1

Chapman --- 4.2 --- 3.2

Jansen --- 2.6 --- 1.9

Kirk --- 3.9 --- 1.3

Biggio --- 1.4 --- 0.7

Espinal --- 2.3 --- (0.1)

 

16.6 WAR decline from these bats in one year

 

Of course, the pitching aside from Manoah and Cimber has gone in the other direction. But Manoah's 4.1 to (0.4) negates the positive trends from Kikuchi and Berrios.

 

Seeing something like this has to be an inditement on the coaching staff right? Most of that decline is offense related.

 

I can't see how a hitting strategist, in Hudgens, can keep his job when both the analytics and the eye-test displays consistently horrendous ABs for a huge a sample size across the season now. How is a player with as much talent as Vlad continually walking to the plate looking like a deer in the headlights? It doesn't add up.

[Orgfiller]

PLAYER --- 2022 WAR --- 2023 WAR

 

Vlad --- 2.9 --- 0.4 - fell off a cliff, swing mechanics and/or decisions are completely f***ed

Varsho --- 4.8 --- 1.6 - offense fell off a cliff, some bad luck?

Springer --- 4.3 --- 2.2 - bad luck + age related decline, mostly the former

Bo --- 4.5 --- 3.1 - basically nothing, he's just been injured

Chapman --- 4.2 --- 3.2 - see Bo

Jansen --- 2.6 --- 1.9 - overperformance last season, injured as usual this year

Kirk --- 3.9 --- 1.3 offense fell of a cliff, may have lost power or something, the EVs and hard hit data are down across the board

Biggio --- 1.4 --- 0.7 honestly nothing? He's been better than last season but the defensive metrics think he fell off a cliff, I'd say if anything he's been better

Espinal --- 2.3 --- (0.1) legit sucks

 

16.6 WAR decline from these bats in one year

 

Of course, the pitching aside from Manoah and Cimber has gone in the other direction. But Manoah's 4.1 to (0.4) negates the positive trends from Kikuchi and Berrios.

 

How in the f*** did this even happen

This is how

[Laika]

Vlad + Varsho + Kirk are the problematic ones

 

All the others are just bad luck / injury / age.

 

Well, maybe. I think Springer has had a pretty bad approach at times this year.

Espinal is a broader coaching problem. I don't really like the way he has seemingly been training.

Chapman has done some weird stuff this year with his offensive approach. But he overperformed heavily in the first month so his WAR was steady.

[Dick_Pole]

After reading the last few pages of intense whining, 93 wins and an easy slide into the playoffs confirmed. At this point last year the Jays were battling for a spot and ended up winning it easily. Don't remind me what happened immediately after.

 

Before comparing YoY WAR, we still have a couple of weeks left. Bichette was still sub-3 WAR by September last year IIRC. That 16 point decline is probably going to be something like 12 by year end. Bad, but less bad.

 

As for drafting, yes it sucks but you have to look at it holistically. This team has been mediocre at drafting and player development of its own prospects HOWEVER has been extremely good at developing other team's scrap heaps like Bautista and Encarnacion. That offsets much of the lost value from bad drafts.

 

The rotation is not homegrown but who cares? Looks solid right now and that's all that matters. The spending on the rotation is not out of line compared to other upper mid to large market teams nor is it out of line compared to the performance.

[BigCecil]

After reading the last few pages of intense whining, 93 wins and an easy slide into the playoffs confirmed. At this point last year the Jays were battling for a spot and ended up winning it easily. Don't remind me what happened immediately after.

 

Before comparing YoY WAR, we still have a couple of weeks left. Bichette was still sub-3 WAR by September last year IIRC. That 16 point decline is probably going to be something like 12 by year end. Bad, but less bad.

 

As for drafting, yes it sucks but you have to look at it holistically. This team has been mediocre at drafting and player development of its own prospects HOWEVER has been extremely good at developing other team's scrap heaps like Bautista and Encarnacion. That offsets much of the lost value from bad drafts.

 

The rotation is not homegrown but who cares? Looks solid right now and that's all that matters. The spending on the rotation is not out of line compared to other upper mid to large market teams nor is it out of line compared to the performance.

 

How is your 95 Win bet looking Mr. Gekko?

[Dick_Pole]

Its about 1/10th of what it is in BOS and NY over their seasons so far.

 

Lets hope we bounce into the playoffs - suddenly get hot and roll to a 3rd ring. Then you can make fun of any of us who panicked and we'll happily take it.

 

Yankees I see, as that fan base has had a wake up call to see how bad of a mess they are in. This is going to be a multi-year problem for them. Sox fans I don't see how. They were pretty much consensus last place pick in the AL East at the start of the year. If anything they have outperformed and their fan base should be reasonably content.

[Dick_Pole]

How is your 95 Win bet looking Mr. Gekko?

 

Didn't bet on that this year as my confidence was less so than last year. I did put some mid season bets of over 89.5-92.5 total wins, but the intense whining here has my confidence on 93 shooting up to over 90% now. 90 is basically a lock.

[Terminator]

We will win the next two vs Texas and everything will be ok again.

[Olerud363]

After reading the last few pages of intense whining, 93 wins and an easy slide into the playoffs confirmed. At this point last year the Jays were battling for a spot and ended up winning it easily. Don't remind me what happened immediately after.

 

After 145 games the 2022 Blue Jays were in WC1 with a 6 game lead for a Wild Card spot.,

 

I think there was a couple of times in August it got close last year, but by this time the Jays had the playoff spot pretty much wrapped up.