General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[MikeM3]

Bichette is nothing like Baez. Baez didn't even have his first "good" hitting season until his 5th year in the league.

 

Bichette is one of the most consistently above-average hitters in the entire league. 90th percentile or above xBA in each of the past 4 seasons. He's in the 98th percentile this season. It's truly elite bat to ball skills.

 

His baserunning and D are trending down as he ages. His value is all tied in his ability to run a 5% walk rate and swing 40% out of the zone. Its an insane bet no one should make if there's a trade out there.

[BigCecil]

His baserunning and D are trending down as he ages. His value is all tied in his ability to run a 5% walk rate and swing 40% out of the zone. Its an insane bet no one should make if there's a trade out there.

 

Clearly. Bo’s bat to ball skills would have to be elite to put up the numbers he has with the chase and bb rates he has.

[Terminator]

I would consider Austin Riley like extensions for both Vlad and Bo. 10 years, ~200 mil.

 

I think Riley signed his right before the end of Year 3 though. Vlad and Bo will be done with year 4. It's getting harder and harder to see extensions for either happening.

[BigCecil]

I would consider Austin Riley like extensions for both Vlad and Bo. 10 years, ~200 mil.

 

I think Riley signed his right before the end of Year 3 though. Vlad and Bo will be done with year 4. It's getting harder and harder to see extensions for either happening.

 

Yep. At least extensions that make sense risk/bet wise. Its a debate that should intensify as the deadline comes next year depending on where the team is at obviously. Big decisions.

[Captain_Obvious]

Jeesus JS and Vladdy are taking it on the shins from the media the last 24 hours

 

Where? Links?

[metafour]

His baserunning and D are trending down as he ages. His value is all tied in his ability to run a 5% walk rate and swing 40% out of the zone. Its an insane bet no one should make if there's a trade out there.

 

Yes, I love painting players with abnormal talents with the same brush that would otherwise hinder an 'average' player. The fact that he runs a 5% walk rate means much less for him than it does for 99% of the hitters in the league. He swings a lot, but he also doesn't whiff (75th percentile this season) or strike out a lot (71st percentile). A player like him could very likely become more selective and walk more if/when his bat-to-ball skills ever deteriorated. He is getting slower, but his hitting prowess really isn't predicated on his speed.

 

His Statcast page is all red everywhere and it has been for 4 straight years now. Outliers always exist.

[MikeM3]

Yes, I love painting players with abnormal talents with the same brush that would otherwise hinder an 'average' player. The fact that he runs a 5% walk rate means much less for him than it does for 99% of the hitters in the league. He swings a lot, but he also doesn't whiff (75th percentile this season) or strike out a lot (71st percentile). A player like him could very likely become more selective and walk more if/when his bat-to-ball skills ever deteriorated. He is getting slower, but his hitting prowess really isn't predicated on his speed.

 

His Statcast page is all red everywhere and it has been for 4 straight years now. Outliers always exist.

 

Ya Tim Anderson was abnormal too until he wasn't. I'd rather not bet on a guy being a complete anomaly.

[John_Havok]

Yes, I love painting players with abnormal talents with the same brush that would otherwise hinder an 'average' player. The fact that he runs a 5% walk rate means much less for him than it does for 99% of the hitters in the league. He swings a lot, but he also doesn't whiff (75th percentile this season) or strike out a lot (71st percentile). A player like him could very likely become more selective and walk more if/when his bat-to-ball skills ever deteriorated. He is getting slower, but his hitting prowess really isn't predicated on his speed.

 

His Statcast page is all red everywhere and it has been for 4 straight years now. Outliers always exist.

 

Yea Bo is an anomaly for sure. His ability to put bat to ball in weird ways is pretty unique. He's a guy who's overall value is very much tied to his babip. Once that goes, he goes.

[BigCecil]

Ya Tim Anderson was abnormal too until he wasn't. I'd rather not bet on a guy being a complete anomaly.

 

Metafour would put all the chips in on aging long term expensive deals for players with declining abnormal, anomalous skills. Awesome. 🙄 Just what we need.

[spats]

Thank you Mets. Texas had the bases loaded with none out in the top of the 10th and didn't score, so it's not just a Jays thing.

[Jays333]

3-3 in the first part of our "soft" schedule is not going cut it. Would be nice to go 8-1 the rest of the way

[WryNGinger]

What is more likely to happen?

 

Jays make the wild-card?

Boston passes the Jays by end of season?

 

Pretty even odds on those if you ask me.

[Masterbather]

What is more likely to happen?

 

Jays make the wild-card?

Boston passes the Jays by end of season?

 

Pretty even odds on those if you ask me.

 

Naw, I think to have a chance they would have to sweep us in the three game series, because they are four games back and they have a tougher schedule than we do. I can't see them making up four games with that schedule without a sweep. Even then it'll be tough.

[Laika]

Cleveland can pitch and Washington is a quality underdog

 

The Blue Jays will get thoroughly dominated by Bibee, Syndergaard, and Josiah Gray and go 3-3 over the next 6 games.

 

Vlad will have 8 groundball singles, a caught stealing, and one HR which will happen in the 8th inning of a 10-2 drumming of Logan T. Allen.

 

Welp. This was pretty close.

 

3-3. Lost to Bibee and lost the Syndergaard game. Lost to Mackenzie Gore rather than Josiah Gray.

 

I think Vlad went 7 for 28 with two homers. One HR was a kind of meaningless solo shot off Bibee. The other one was the 2 run HR off Syndergaard which gave them a lead for a few innings. So he homered in a couple of the losses and then of course failed to get numerous big hits when needed.

[spats]

What is more likely to happen?

 

Jays make the wild-card?

Boston passes the Jays by end of season?

 

Pretty even odds on those if you ask me.

 

Neither

[G-Snarls]

We.only need ONE of Mariners Astros Rangers to suck for a couple weeks and win our own games

 

It's possible

[Eat My Shatkins]

Looking at schedules, recent performance and the fact that the Jays play the Rangers in a 4 game series, the Rangers are our best hope of passing someone.

[G-Snarls]

Looking at schedules, recent performance and the fact that the Jays play the Rangers in a 4 game series, the Rangers are our best hope of passing someone.

 

Agreed

 

Rangers also have 3 games left against the Astros and *6* against the Mariners

[Terminator]

We.only need ONE of Mariners Astros Rangers to suck for a couple weeks and win our own games

 

It's possible

 

100%. If we put up a decent record, say 16-13, we'd only need 1 of the 3 teams to play .500ish ball or so. One of them could s*** the bed entirely.

 

*Silvio cover your eyes*

 

Mariners and Rangers schedules are starting to toughen up too.

 

*Silvio, you really need to skip this part*

 

The easiest part of our schedule all year is coming up with this 9 game stretch against the Rockies, A's and Royals. With Chapman and Bo out I'm not going to call for 8-1 or anything. But 6-3 or 7-2 puts us in a good position heading into that 4 game series against Texas.

[Terminator]

Looking at schedules, recent performance and the fact that the Jays play the Rangers in a 4 game series, the Rangers are our best hope of passing someone.

 

If we win that Rangers series 3-1 we would then hold the tiebreaker. If we go 2-2 they hold the tiebreaker. Going to be a huge series.

 

I think we should pull out all the stops. Bring back everyone from the 2015-2016 teams and play the highlights nonstop. Bautista, Edwin and even the scrubs like Ryan Goins. Gibby needs to be there. Pack the dome and make it a playoff game atmosphere.

[wilko]

If we win that Rangers series 3-1 we would then hold the tiebreaker. If we go 2-2 they hold the tiebreaker. Going to be a huge series.

 

I think we should pull out all the stops. Bring back everyone from the 2015-2016 teams and play the highlights nonstop. Bautista, Edwin and even the scrubs like Ryan Goins. Gibby needs to be there. Pack the dome and make it a playoff game atmosphere.

 

Get that old bag to throw out the first pitch!

[Laika]

100%. If we put up a decent record, say 16-13, we'd only need 1 of the 3 teams to play .500ish ball or so. One of them could s*** the bed entirely.

 

*Silvio cover your eyes*

 

Mariners and Rangers schedules are starting to toughen up too.

 

*Silvio, you really need to skip this part*

 

The easiest part of our schedule all year is coming up with this 9 game stretch against the Rockies, A's and Royals. With Chapman and Bo out I'm not going to call for 8-1 or anything. But 6-3 or 7-2 puts us in a good position heading into that 4 game series against Texas.

 

lmao

[Brownie19]

silvio = jaysblue I assume?

[Terminator]

Yeah but I wasn't meaning to talk s*** to him haha. I like him, I'm just joking bc we went back and forth on the schedule so much before.

[L54]

Hey the Jays control their own destiny still. Take care of business over the next 9 and then you might basically have what feels like a playoff series against Texas

 

Just have to find a way to beat these three really bad teams

[Laika]

One of those teams HAS to be mediocre from now on.

 

Mariners and Rangers play 7 more times

Mariners and Astros play 3 more times

Astros and Rangers play 3 more times

 

They can't all win all the time.

 

Mariners other series: Mets, Reds, Rays, Angels, Dodgers, Athletics

Astros: Yankees, Padres, Athletics, Royals, Orioles, Royals, Diamondbacks

Rangers: Twins, Athletics, Jays, Guardians, Red Sox, Angels

[Laika]

The playoffs remain easy to make.

[Terminator]

I had written the team off after losing to the Nats on Tuesday.

 

We beat them yesterday and now I'm getting high on breaking down remaining schedules again instead of working.

 

I need help.

[Laika]

All I want in life is for the Blue Jays to be the final Wild Card team

 

I need to watch Vlad groundout on the first pitch (a sinker two inches inside) with the bases loaded in the playoffs

[G-Snarls]

I had written the team off after losing to the Nats on Tuesday.

 

We beat them yesterday and now I'm getting high on breaking down remaining schedules again instead of working.

 

I need help.

 

100% same for me LOL