General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[Olerud363]

George Springer is a f***ing problem. 0.086 ISO. He is playing like Randal Grichuk in a cold streak. Ugh.

Belt has been useless.

The "supporting cast" is mostly without power. Biggio + Belt + Espinal + Luplow + Lukes + Kiermaier have.... 268 combined PA and 5 combined home runs.

 

Merrifield has none but that's not his game anyway.

 

I'm not worried about the catchers. Their K-BB rates seem fine so they will both come around.

 

If you could magically go back to 2021 and have this team as constructed in 2023 together with their 2021 seasons they would have hit for enough power, though not as much power as the real 2021 team.

 

Or actually maybe they would when healthy because Springer and Belt were great in 2021 with 40+ homer power (but injuries), so if they were all together healthy in September of 2021 it would have been a team with great power.

 

Everyone is 2 years older though, which is good for Varsho/Vlad/Bo and Kirk (or should be as a group) but not good for 4 other starters Springer, Merrifield, Belt, Keirmarier.

 

It would suck if Springer is aging 3 years ahead of Bautista and has arrived at Bautista 2017 level.

[Laika]

Toronto bullpen has the 2nd best xFIP in baseball. And second best SIERA.

 

ERA and FIP not as good.

 

It's possible they are getting pretty unlucky. When I think about Yimi Garcia, for example, I can't help but think that he is being tested by god. His K-BB numbers are sublime and he is throwing very hard but he has a f***ing 30% HR/FB rate lmao.

[Olerud363]

Fans:

 

Jays hit a ton of home runs - "Jays rely too much on the long ball. They can't manufacture runs and this won't work in the playoffs"

Jays hit less home runs - "Jays need to hit more home runs"

 

 

I've never said the former. I think manufacturing runs is pointless, because if you look at the win expectancy it doesn't make much of a difference to ever bunt a guy over and is useless because even the grittiest, gamer, "knows how to it the right way", guys fail to get the bunt down occasionally (like Kiermaier the other night). On the other hand do I want to fire the manager if he bunts to get the win expectancy from 60% to 60%. Not really unless he is bunting 100 times or something.

 

I like homers as long as there is some on base percentage with it. Like not the 250 homer .300 on base percentage Cito teams that would be outscored by 200 runs by the 220 homer .350 on base percentage red sox and yankees teams.

 

Recipe for good offense

 

On base percentage = high

homers = high

bunts = who cares

[Olerud363]

Fans:

 

Jays hit a ton of home runs - "Jays rely too much on the long ball. They can't manufacture runs and this won't work in the playoffs"

Jays hit less home runs - "Jays need to hit more home runs"

 

 

Imagine being a casual fan, who didn't read analytics and watched 10 games a year, but the girlfriend was away and they sat down and watched the last three games.

 

There were by my count 4 game changing homeruns in Sundays game, 4 game changing homeruns in Monday's game, and 2 or 3 last night.

 

There was one failed bunt attempt by one of the grittiest players of all time that led to a lead off double being stranded at 2nd.

 

What fan would ever think bunts should be a thing, and homeruns weren't that important after watching those 3 games. Only 3 games. I guess there are historic games with great bunts that made all the difference that I am just not remembering because of my bias.

 

Even myself, who 5 minutes ago claimed I just didn't care about bunts either way, has now changed my mind and decided to hate them based on what I saw so far this week.

[Krylian]

Toronto bullpen has the 2nd best xFIP in baseball. And second best SIERA.

 

ERA and FIP not as good.

 

It's possible they are getting pretty unlucky. When I think about Yimi Garcia, for example, I can't help but think that he is being tested by god. His K-BB numbers are sublime and he is throwing very hard but he has a f***ing 30% HR/FB rate lmao.

 

What's Garcia's pitch location on those homers? Centre cut? Or are they quality pitches?

[Orgfiller]

What's Garcia's pitch location on those homers? Centre cut? Or are they quality pitches?

 

It doesn’t really matter tbh. Not every meatball is hit for a homerun, and this is especially true when the stuff is good. There’s still an aspect of luck involved if all of your “bad” pitches get put over the bleachers, and the same is true that not all of your good pitches won’t be hit out of the park. Garcia’s HR/FB rate is completely unsustainable.

[Krylian]

It doesn’t really matter tbh. Not every meatball is hit for a homerun, and this is especially true when the stuff is good. There’s still an aspect of luck involved if all of your “bad” pitches get put over the bleachers, and the same is true that not all of your good pitches won’t be hit out of the park. Garcia’s HR/FB rate is completely unsustainable.

 

But wasn't the whole argument with Berrios that the stuff was good but his location was s***, hence getting pounded?

[Jonn]

Fans:

 

“Why did Schneider pull the starter early, he gave up 2 runs early but he was cruising!!”

 

Next week:

 

“Why didn’t Schneider go to pen! He tried to squeeze 1 more inning out of the starter and it backfired.”

 

I mean the problem has been he was taking out Starters at 88 pitches that are throwing well lol.

 

The time he finally decides to push Berrios was a start he was getting hit around and was quite frankly lucky to have only allowed 2 runs at that point.

 

It’s a feel position and he appears to have very little feel for the game.

[Orgfiller]

But wasn't the whole argument with Berrios that the stuff was good but his location was s***, hence getting pounded?

 

Yes, but being shelled doesn't just mean homeruns. For instance, Berrios last year had a HR/FB rate of 13.5%, which is only slightly higher than career numbers. His xERA was also awful, so in general yes he was giving up a ton of loud contact and without the Ks to make up for it. Over the long run some of these homerun pitches Garcia has given up will turn into hard singles, doubles, or warning track flyouts. And he's shown he has the stuff to get away from these kinds of spots unscathed.

[John_Havok]

Yes, but being shelled doesn't just mean homeruns. For instance, Berrios last year had a HR/FB rate of 13.5%, which is only slightly higher than career numbers. His xERA was also awful, so in general yes he was giving up a ton of loud contact and without the Ks to make up for it. Over the long run some of these homerun pitches Garcia has given up will turn into hard singles, doubles, or warning track flyouts. And he's shown he has the stuff to get away from these kinds of spots unscathed.

 

Look at the HR Swanson have up yesterday over the monster. HR in 2/30 parks. It's a loud out virtually everywhere else in baseball.

[Stangstag]

Toronto bullpen has the 2nd best xFIP in baseball. And second best SIERA.

 

ERA and FIP not as good.

 

It's possible they are getting pretty unlucky. When I think about Yimi Garcia, for example, I can't help but think that he is being tested by god. His K-BB numbers are sublime and he is throwing very hard but he has a f***ing 30% HR/FB rate lmao.

 

Yeah just glancing over the stats over the last few days, there’s no way that HR rate is sustainable

[Brownie19]

I mean the problem has been he was taking out Starters at 88 pitches that are throwing well lol.

 

The time he finally decides to push Berrios was a start he was getting hit around and was quite frankly lucky to have only allowed 2 runs at that point.

 

It’s a feel position and he appears to have very little feel for the game.

 

Holy f*** this is a terrible take. Schnieder has been managing successful teams for the past 15 years, winning multiple championship along the way, while working his way up through the minors to the majors. You think he's accomplished all of that without any feel for the game? Do you also think that everyone in the organization is a f***ing moron? Obviously you must if they keep promoting him.

 

Ever stop - just for a second - to consider that you may be sitting atop Mount Stupid?

[Jonn]

Holy f*** this is a terrible take. Schnieder has been managing successful teams for the past 15 years, winning multiple championship along the way, while working his way up through the minors to the majors. You think he's accomplished all of that without any feel for the game? Do you also think that everyone in the organization is a f***ing moron? Obviously you must if they keep promoting him.

 

Ever stop - just for a second - to consider that you may be sitting atop Mount Stupid?

 

Does anyone really care about Minor League Success lol? You’re as good as the players you have. Even Montoyo stumbled into some success. If you’re telling me John Scheneider is a glorified puppet and someone is pulling all the strings. The person controlling him might be the real issue yes. He doesn’t appear capable of making simple routine decisions. He can’t even get Whit Merrifield in the lineup every day.

[jaysblue]

Joseph Gordon Levitt has a great feel for the game. I think he would make a great manager if he ever wanted to pursue a career in baseball.

[John_Havok]

Does anyone really care about Minor League Success lol? You’re as good as the players you have. Even Montoyo stumbled into some success. If you’re telling me John Scheneider is a glorified puppet and someone is pulling all the strings. The person controlling him might be the real issue yes. He doesn’t appear capable of making simple routine decisions. He can’t even get Whit Merrifield in the lineup every day.

 

Not a glorified puppet, but he's going to have parameters he has to manage to. It wouldn't be anything as strict as "must always insert X pitcher to face Y Batter in 5th inning no matter who starts..." kind of s***, but more like "If X pitcher is at X number of pitches and is now in his third time through the lineup... here's 2 or 3 relief options that match up well with this part of the lineup, that part of the lineup etc. Score would obviously be a factor as would reliever availability and if a guy is on his second day in a row vs fresh. he makes decisions based on the info provided. That's not the same thing as having in game decisions made for him.

 

I bet that the who's in and who's out on any given day (assuming injuries arent a thing) is probably much more rigid though. Every regular is going to have planned days off, planned DH days and the non regulars are going to be platooned per matchups more often than not. They're definitely going to stick to that unless injuries force a change.

[Jonn]

Not a glorified puppet, but he's going to have parameters he has to manage to. It wouldn't be anything as strict as "must always insert X pitcher to face Y Batter in 5th inning no matter who starts..." kind of s***, but more like "If X pitcher is at X number of pitches and is now in his third time through the lineup... here's 2 or 3 relief options that match up well with this part of the lineup, that part of the lineup etc. Score would obviously be a factor as would reliever availability and if a guy is on his second day in a row vs fresh. he makes decisions based on the info provided. That's not the same thing as having in game decisions made for him.

 

I bet that the who's in and who's out on any given day (assuming injuries arent a thing) is probably much more rigid though. Every regular is going to have planned days off, planned DH days and the non regulars are going to be platooned per matchups more often than not. They're definitely going to stick to that unless injuries force a change.

 

It’s my understanding that he gets presented with info and he can make a decision based on the information he has. But he can make his own decision. The way people sound on this board sometimes is just wild to me. They act like Atkins has a gun to his head telling him what to do at all times. There’s definitely suggestion and a gameplan. But the at the end of day hes the one with the fingers pointed at him when things go wrong. He’s making a lot of these choices and it hasn’t been going well for him. Rightfully he should be criticized. I’m not saying I or anyone else can do a better job than him. I’m just calling things out as I see them. I’m allowed to do that without people getting butt hurt about it lol. I just want to see the team win when I see clear mistakes that are correctable I kind would like to hear both the reasoning behind it and how you’re going to fix it. The guy had 5+ months to think about Game 2 of the playoffs last year. And he makes the same mistake a few weeks into the season. I’m not very confident at this point he’s capable of correcting his mistakes.

 

Its really not anything more than that.

[wilko]

Does Schneider have rosacea or high blood pressure?

[John_Havok]

It’s my understanding that he gets presented with info and he can make a decision based on the information he has. But he can make his own decision. The way people sound on this board sometimes is just wild to me. They act like Atkins has a gun to his head telling him what to do at all times. There’s definitely suggestion and a gameplan. But the at the end of day hes the one with the fingers pointed at him when things go wrong. He’s making a lot of these choices and it hasn’t been going well for him. Rightfully he should be criticized. I’m not saying I or anyone else can do a better job than him. I’m just calling things out as I see them. I’m allowed to do that without people getting butt hurt about it lol. I just want to see the team win when I see clear mistakes that are correctable I kind would like to hear both the reasoning behind it and how you’re going to fix it. The guy had 5+ months to think about Game 2 of the playoffs last year. And he makes the same mistake a few weeks into the season. I’m not very confident at this point he’s capable of correcting his mistakes.

 

Its really not anything more than that.

 

The point is you have no idea what information he is making his decisions from ... so you sitting there saying he made the "wrong one" is presumptive and stupid. All you have is hindsight, which is always perfect.

[Stangstag]

It’s my understanding that he gets presented with info and he can make a decision based on the information he has. But he can make his own decision. The way people sound on this board sometimes is just wild to me. They act like Atkins has a gun to his head telling him what to do at all times. There’s definitely suggestion and a gameplan. But the at the end of day hes the one with the fingers pointed at him when things go wrong. He’s making a lot of these choices and it hasn’t been going well for him. Rightfully he should be criticized. I’m not saying I or anyone else can do a better job than him. I’m just calling things out as I see them. I’m allowed to do that without people getting butt hurt about it lol. I just want to see the team win when I see clear mistakes that are correctable I kind would like to hear both the reasoning behind it and how you’re going to fix it. The guy had 5+ months to think about Game 2 of the playoffs last year. And he makes the same mistake a few weeks into the season. I’m not very confident at this point he’s capable of correcting his mistakes.

 

Its really not anything more than that.

 

This is all pure 100% speculation, we really have no idea how things work. And to your 2nd point about how he is making the same mistakes as last year... isn't that pointing more to the fact that these decisions come from the top?

 

IDK maybe John really is just dumb but we don't really know for certain

[Terminator]

Does Schneider have rosacea or high blood pressure?

 

I think his face is always red in public because he's in a state of permanent embarrassment for all of his bonehead decisions that he made in Game 2 last year.

[RobinThicc]

https://www.tsn.ca/scott-mitchell-q-a-with-toronto-blue-jays-mark-shapiro-we-re-in-the-sweet-spot-right-now-1.1955641

 

Q&A with Shapiro.

[Jonn]

This is all pure 100% speculation, we really have no idea how things work. And to your 2nd point about how he is making the same mistakes as last year... isn't that pointing more to the fact that these decisions come from the top?

 

IDK maybe John really is just dumb but we don't really know for certain

 

You’re right I don’t. But if it doesn’t work like that and his hands truly are tied. I have question if that’s even an enjoyable position to be in. You get all the blame but don’t push the buttons? I would like to feel these managers have some level of freedom.

 

The point is you have no idea what information he is making his decisions from ... so you sitting there saying he made the "wrong one" is presumptive and stupid. All you have is hindsight, which is always perfect.

 

If you’re in the GDT’s you would know I call out most of these things at the time. This isn’t a Jonn’s right scenario though. I just don’t understand why he feels these decisions are his best moves. That’s the underlying factor. But I also don’t have to access to all the information.

[Terminator]

I know that Stoeten said something bad about the board once but he wrote a pretty good article about Belt and Biggio as well as their potential in-house replacements.

 

https://stoeten.substack.com/p/the-cases-against-biggio-belt-and

[Stangstag]

You’re right I don’t. But if it doesn’t work like that and his hands truly are tied. I have question if that’s even an enjoyable position to be in. You get all the blame but don’t push the buttons? I would like to feel these managers have some level of freedom.

 

 

 

If you’re in the GDT’s you would know I call out most of these things at the time. This isn’t a Jonn’s right scenario though. I just don’t understand why he feels these decisions are his best moves. That’s the underlying factor. But I also don’t have to access to all the information.

 

Yeah well that’s why you rarely see the “old school” guys as managers anymore. Im sure they don’t like being told what to do and taking all the blame.

 

Its no secret why like 80% of managers are younger dudes now in their first managerial role

[John_Havok]

You’re right I don’t. But if it doesn’t work like that and his hands truly are tied. I have question if that’s even an enjoyable position to be in. You get all the blame but don’t push the buttons? I would like to feel these managers have some level of freedom.

 

 

 

If you’re in the GDT’s you would know I call out most of these things at the time. This isn’t a Jonn’s right scenario though. I just don’t understand why he feels these decisions are his best moves. That’s the underlying factor. But I also don’t have to access to all the information.

 

but youre missing the overall point. Because you have no idea what info he has, you have no idea what the best move is, so calling out some move you dont agree with doesn't matter. A manager can't always make the perfect ideal decision. I'd wager they probably cant do that even half the time depending on the metric ton of variables that are in play every single day that we never know about.

[Brownie19]

The guy had 5+ months to think about Game 2 of the playoffs last year. And he makes the same mistake a few weeks into the season. I’m not very confident at this point he’s capable of correcting his mistakes.

 

Ever stop to consider the decisions they make aren't actually "mistakes"? Almost every decision comes with a probability of success - and of course a probability of failure. Just because the result was a failure, doesn't mean the decision was a mistake.

 

Someone pointed out that the moves he made v. Seattle last series were very similar to those made in Game 2 of the playoff game v. Seattle. If they were - wouldn't that suggest those decisions were made using the highest probability for success? The reality is the outcome is out of the managers control (and I say that with full disclosure that I didn't agree with the moves Schneider made in Game 2 either - couldn't understand them).

 

Look at it this way. If the probability of getting a 1st down in football on 4th and inches is 90% (based on the play you're going to call) and it fails the first time - do you want the coach to abandon going for it on 4th and inches again because it was a 'mistake' the first time? Of course you don't. I'm not suggesting every decision is based off what the computer tells you, but you certainly don't abandon it just because the results went against the probabilities.

 

Of course you need to ensure the information the computer is calculating is accurate as well - which leads back to the point that it's a very complicated matter and you're simplistic opinions, with very little information are comical.

Edited May 3, 2023 by Brownie19

[Stangstag]

Ever stop to consider the decisions they make aren't actually "mistakes"? Almost every decision comes with a probability of success - and of course a probability of failure. Just because the result was a failure, doesn't mean the decision was a mistake.

 

Someone pointed out that the moves he made v. Seattle last series were very similar to those made in Game 2 of the playoff game v. Seattle. If they were - wouldn't that suggest those decisions were made using the highest probability for success? The reality is the outcome is out of the managers control (and I say that with full disclosure that I didn't agree with the moves Schneider made in Game 2 either - couldn't understand them).

 

Look at it this way. If the probability of getting a 1st down in football on 4th and inches is 90% (based on the play you're going to call) and it fails the first time - do you want the coach to abandon going for it on 4th and inches again because it was a 'mistake' the first time? Of course you don't. I'm not suggesting every decision is based off what the computer tells you, but you certainly don't abandon it just because the results went against the probabilities.

 

Of course you need to ensure the information the computer is calculating is accurate as well - which leads back to the point that it's a very complicated matter and you're simplistic opinions, with very little information are comical.

 

I agree with this but still the Tapia replacement over Bradley is 100% inexcusable

[Jonn]

I will accept that good decisions can be subjective. That doesn’t mean I can’t criticize when I don’t agree with them. Like is that not the point of a message board to discuss this s*** even though we have no control over the outcome lol.

 

Even the right decision fails sometimes. I just feel tactically as a Baseball team our manager can be putting us in a better position to be successful.

[glory]

The issue with the Game 2 scenario was that there is no analytic in the world that could rationalize it. Mayza got rocked by RHB. Santana was much better against LHP. Gausman had no issues with facing an order for the 3rd time (2.91 ERA/2.65 FIP 3rd time through the order in 2022), was only at 90+ pitches, and had a near 6 WAR regular season. There are good decisions that just don't work out, and then there's whatever the hell that was. Never mind having an 8-1 lead in the 6th and deciding that Tapia was the best guy to bring in rather than a vetrin whose only skill at that point was being great defensively.

 

Schneider and all managers do make decisions based on probability. As mentioned, some times it works, some times it doesn't. There are also times when moves simply do not make sense and are a result of a manager's "gut" gone wrong. I hope the latter was responsible for Game 2's decisions because if it was the Jays analytics, then that's a bigger problem.

[Omar]

Ever stop to consider the decisions they make aren't actually "mistakes"? Almost every decision comes with a probability of success - and of course a probability of failure. Just because the result was a failure, doesn't mean the decision was a mistake.

 

Someone pointed out that the moves he made v. Seattle last series were very similar to those made in Game 2 of the playoff game v. Seattle. If they were - wouldn't that suggest those decisions were made using the highest probability for success? The reality is the outcome is out of the managers control (and I say that with full disclosure that I didn't agree with the moves Schneider made in Game 2 either - couldn't understand them).

 

Look at it this way. If the probability of getting a 1st down in football on 4th and inches is 90% (based on the play you're going to call) and it fails the first time - do you want the coach to abandon going for it on 4th and inches again because it was a 'mistake' the first time? Of course you don't. I'm not suggesting every decision is based off what the computer tells you, but you certainly don't abandon it just because the results went against the probabilities.

 

Of course you need to ensure the information the computer is calculating is accurate as well - which leads back to the point that it's a very complicated matter and you're simplistic opinions, with very little information are comical.

 

When it's 3rd and 7 Schneider is calling for a handoff and our running game is s***. That's the problem.