General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[Olerud363]

Merrifield at 2nd has been great and KK in CF have been very good - about as good as expected. Perhaps your factoring in days when Varsho covers CF and Espy/Biggio play 2nd - but I still don't see how you lock those 2 positions into the 'sucky' category.

 

Yeah. Not sure how the formatting will work out, but here is the table from baseball reference. Second base has been horrible but will get better if Merrifield becomes primary 2b.

 

G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+

s C 29 119 103 10 22 2 0 4 17 0 0 16 21 .214 .319 .350 .669 36 0 0 0 0 1 0 .231 81 92

as 1B 29 128 112 19 33 8 0 4 14 0 0 13 22 .295 .375 .473 .848 53 3 2 0 1 0 0 .333 128 122

as 2B 29 116 101 12 19 6 0 0 11 3 2 12 25 .188 .285 .248 .532 25 1 2 0 1 0 0 .247 46 58

as 3B 29 123 108 17 38 14 0 5 21 1 2 14 28 .352 .431 .620 1.051 67 0 1 0 0 1 1 .440 181 189

as SS 29 133 126 20 44 5 0 8 22 1 2 6 19 .349 .384 .579 .963 73 2 1 0 0 0 0 .364 157 160

as LF 29 125 109 11 24 4 0 2 10 5 0 12 25 .220 .304 .312 .616 34 1 2 0 2 0 0 .262 68 76

as CF 29 116 106 13 27 4 2 1 8 3 0 7 29 .255 .313 .359 .672 38 2 2 1 0 0 2 .342 82 76

as RF 29 130 122 17 29 2 0 5 14 4 1 7 27 .238 .285 .377 .662 46 3 1 0 0 0 2 .267 78 82

as DH 29 125 107 15 21 5 0 3 12 4 0 16 36 .196 .312 .327 .639 35 4 2 0 0 0 0 .265 74 76

[Olerud363]

Yeah. Not sure how the formatting will work out, but here is the table from baseball reference. Second base has been horrible but will get better if Merrifield becomes primary 2b.

 

G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+

s C 29 119 103 10 22 2 0 4 17 0 0 16 21 .214 .319 .350 .669 36 0 0 0 0 1 0 .231 81 92

as 1B 29 128 112 19 33 8 0 4 14 0 0 13 22 .295 .375 .473 .848 53 3 2 0 1 0 0 .333 128 122

as 2B 29 116 101 12 19 6 0 0 11 3 2 12 25 .188 .285 .248 .532 25 1 2 0 1 0 0 .247 46 58

as 3B 29 123 108 17 38 14 0 5 21 1 2 14 28 .352 .431 .620 1.051 67 0 1 0 0 1 1 .440 181 189

as SS 29 133 126 20 44 5 0 8 22 1 2 6 19 .349 .384 .579 .963 73 2 1 0 0 0 0 .364 157 160

as LF 29 125 109 11 24 4 0 2 10 5 0 12 25 .220 .304 .312 .616 34 1 2 0 2 0 0 .262 68 76

as CF 29 116 106 13 27 4 2 1 8 3 0 7 29 .255 .313 .359 .672 38 2 2 1 0 0 2 .342 82 76

as RF 29 130 122 17 29 2 0 5 14 4 1 7 27 .238 .285 .377 .662 46 3 1 0 0 0 2 .267 78 82

as DH 29 125 107 15 21 5 0 3 12 4 0 16 36 .196 .312 .327 .639 35 4 2 0 0 0 0 .265 74 76

 

 

To make things clearer here are just position and sOPS+

 

sOPS+

as C 92

as 1B 122

as 2B 58

as 3B 189

as SS 160

as LF 76

as CF 76

as RF 82

as DH 76

 

Here are my groupings, not all groups have even size

 

150+ MVP

120-149 All Star

100-119 above average

85-99 mediocre

70-84 sucky

0-70 f*** you

[The_DH]

Yeah the 9M against the luxury tax does hurt if it prevents the Jays from adding a key piece or two at the trade deadline.

 

That's exactly what I was thinking. We may not be able to sign somebody else because of the money we sunk here.

[max silver]

That's exactly what I was thinking. We may not be able to sign somebody else because of the money we sunk here.

 

From what I can gather this front office has always been cognizant of leaving available funds to add at the trade deadline to shore up any obvious weaknesses. Aside from that it appears as though Shapiro has much better support from Rogers higher ups than was previously the case under other regimes. The days of going around in the clubhouse with a hat for salary donations is a thing of the past.

[Jonn]

That's exactly what I was thinking. We may not be able to sign somebody else because of the money we sunk here.

 

We would likely have to eat another big salary to improve the club. So moving Belts salary and someone else. Belt + Bass + Prospect for Joc Pederson. Something along those lines.

[Brownie19]

That's exactly what I was thinking. We may not be able to sign somebody else because of the money we sunk here.

 

We can exceed the luxury tax guys and I'm sure that won't be a concern if we're in WS contention. We don't want to be over the luxury tax for 3-4 straight years, but doing it this year won't be a major issue.

[Jonn]

From what I can gather this front office has always been cognizant of leaving available funds to add at the trade deadline to shore up any obvious weaknesses. Aside from that it appears as though Shapiro has much better support from Rogers higher ups than was previously the case under other regimes. The days of going around in the clubhouse with a hat for salary donations is a thing of the past.

 

It’s much less about Rogers be willing to pay. It’s the potential to lose draft picks. And avoiding the tax in the future seems impossible. The Jays have so many players to pay. And giving mid rotation arms isn’t helping. We likely won’t be able to afford Chapman, Vlad, and Bo because contracts like Bassit’s exists. That’s extremely annoying.

 

Luckily Ryu comes off the book finally but in arbitration raises alone that quickly evaporates.

 

Jays inability to develop pitching and being forced to overpay Starters in Free Agency is really limiting the Franchise’s potential.

[Solaxys]

I still don't know if they have the luxury of losing Chapman tbh.

 

Barger/Orelvis aren't even remotely close to the defensive capability of Chapman and possibly even with his production if everything is clicking their 1st year (big if).

 

They signed Bo for 3 yrs and I think we let Bo walk after.

You have to sign Vlad no matter what, and preferably Chap at least to 2027 (to coincide with Gausman and Springer's contracts).

[John_Havok]

I still don't know if they have the luxury of losing Chapman tbh.

 

Barger/Orelvis aren't even remotely close to the defensive capability of Chapman and possibly even with his production if everything is clicking their 1st year (big if).

 

They signed Bo for 3 yrs and I think we let Bo walk after.

You have to sign Vlad no matter what, and preferably Chap at least to 2027 (to coincide with Gausman and Springer's contracts).

 

This trade dealine should be interesting. The Jays have this season, plus 2 more with Bo and Vlad, only this season with Chappy, (assuming no extensions at this point). This should be "all in" time for getting the best reliever(s) available, DFA whoever ya gotta, and trade the s*** out of the minor leaguers with the possible exception of Tiedemann to land anyone else you think needs to be landed. If they go this year and the next 2 without getting to a WS whilst having Bo and Vlad in their primes, along with these starters, they failed bigtime

[jaysblue]

This trade dealine should be interesting. The Jays have this season, plus 2 more with Bo and Vlad, only this season with Chappy, (assuming no extensions at this point). This should be "all in" time for getting the best reliever(s) available, DFA whoever ya gotta, and trade the s*** out of the minor leaguers with the possible exception of Tiedemann to land anyone else you think needs to be landed. If they go this year and the next 2 without getting to a WS whilst having Bo and Vlad in their primes, along with these starters, they failed bigtime

 

Yeah I said this last season as well. You have guys like Vladdy and Bo still under control, you need to at least get to a World Series with them here. If you can't get to a World Series with those guys under club control, then it's an epic fail. Also, you have Gausman pitching at his best and other players in their prime. These next three seasons are definitely the best window for this Jays team to win a World Series or at least get to one.

[glory]

I still don't know if they have the luxury of losing Chapman tbh.

 

Barger/Orelvis aren't even remotely close to the defensive capability of Chapman and possibly even with his production if everything is clicking their 1st year (big if).

 

They signed Bo for 3 yrs and I think we let Bo walk after.

You have to sign Vlad no matter what, and preferably Chap at least to 2027 (to coincide with Gausman and Springer's contracts).

 

They can't afford to lose Chapman, but I don't know if they would be willing to pay the price that it would take to sign him. Chapman is a Boras guy and by far the best FA 3B available. If he's coming off a 5-6 WAR season on top of that, then his ask will be huge, and whoever signs him would be paying top dollar for his 30's. The front office does deserve some benefit of the doubt in this case as they lost Ray coming of a Cy Young season and Semien coming off a top 3 MVP finish, and somehow replaced both with better players (Gausman and Chapman). I would expect them to try the same this winter.

 

I agree that they need to go reasonably "all in" at the trade deadline. No more giving Tapia 500 plate appearances just to non tender him after the season type of decisions. The Jays are closer to the end of the Vlad/Bo window than the beginning, so every move they make between now and 2024 will have to be done with the expectation of trying to win a championship in 2023-25. The farm system doesn't look like it will be producing another star position player any time soon, so they'll have to make more Varsho type of trades where they turn prospects into controllable big leaguers at positions of need during the winter, while also trading prospects during the deadline to get better.

[jaysblue]

They can't afford to lose Chapman, but I don't know if they would be willing to pay the price that it would take to sign him. Chapman is a Boras guy and by far the best FA 3B available. If he's coming off a 5-6 WAR season on top of that, then his ask will be huge, and whoever signs him would be paying top dollar for his 30's. The front office does deserve some benefit of the doubt in this case as they lost Ray coming of a Cy Young season and Semien coming off a top 3 MVP finish, and somehow replaced both with better players (Gausman and Chapman). I would expect them to try the same this winter.

 

I agree that they need to go reasonably "all in" at the trade deadline. No more giving Tapia 500 plate appearances just to non tender him after the season type of decisions. The Jays are closer to the end of the Vlad/Bo window than the beginning, so every move they make between now and 2024 will have to be done with the expectation of trying to win a championship in 2023-25. The farm system doesn't look like it will be producing another star position player any time soon, so they'll have to make more Varsho type of trades where they turn prospects into controllable big leaguers at positions of need during the winter, while also trading prospects during the deadline to get better.

 

They might have to get creative next offseason and look towards the trade route when it comes to third base. Any possible 3B trade candidates? I love Chapman but if he puts together a 5-6 WAR season, he might get close to Austin Riley money, considering Boras is his agent and he's literally the only reliable FA option at 3B. Not sure I would want the Jays to be on the hook for that type of contract.

 

Brandon Belt is like this years Tapia. The Jays can't afford to give him 400 ABs if he continues to struggle this heavily. Need to either cut bait by the end of May if he still is struggling and look for an improvement via the trade market if possible.

[Krylian]

With Ryu's $20M coming off the books, that can go to Chappy. I'm sure there's a way to keep him. That said, if Boras is looking to squeeze every red cent available, there may be a team that's willing do something stupid...something that the Jays really shouldn't match.

[Laika]

I don't see any obvious trade candidates at 3B.

 

The other 3B free agents are Donaldson, Turner, Longoria... Brian Anderson, Candelario, Eduardo Escobar.

 

I don't see any SS or 2B free agents that would work well at 3B on a competitive team.

 

Addison Barger better start hitting!!!

[jaysblue]

Some 3B trade candidates next offseason I could think of:

 

- Yoán Moncada: White Sox might blow things up and Burger has been really good with the bat.

- Anthony Rendon: Angels would need to eat some salary and if they decide to sell off given Ohtani walking as a FA.

- Nolan Arenado: very slim chances he gets moved unless the Cardinals really disappoint this season.

- J.D. Davis: if he becomes too expensive for San Fran after and if David Villar hits well, he might be shopped.

 

Maybe Moncada is the most likely guy who could be traded. Otherwise, the other three are complete long shots.

[wilko]

I don't see any obvious trade candidates at 3B.

 

The other 3B free agents are Donaldson, Turner, Longoria... Brian Anderson, Candelario, Eduardo Escobar.

 

I don't see any SS or 2B free agents that would work well at 3B on a competitive team.

 

Addison Barger better start hitting!!!

 

He damn well better start hitting! It's either him or Espy at 3B... There's no way in hell the Jays are going to lock up the ice cream man long term. Especially if he keeps playing like this! Scott Boras will want a kings ransom.

[John_Havok]

We can exceed the luxury tax guys and I'm sure that won't be a concern if we're in WS contention. We don't want to be over the luxury tax for 3-4 straight years, but doing it this year won't be a major issue.

 

Yeah I don't think Rogers will suddenly suspend the spending if all it adds is a few million more to this season's overage. There's ~60 million coming off the books after 2023 in Ryu, Kiermaier, Belt, Cimber, Bass, Merrifield and Chapman. Obviously a chunk of that will go to arb increases, but will still be a good amount left over to spend to add and fill the gaps

[jaysblue]

Josh Rojas wouldn't be a bad trade option if Arizona would move him. Nothing special with the bat, but is left-handed and plays solid defense. So far has posted a 0.8 WAR this season. Might be able to get a 3 WAR season out of him.

[Brownie19]

Some 3B trade candidates next offseason I could think of:

 

- Yoán Moncada: White Sox might blow things up and Burger has been really good with the bat.

- Anthony Rendon: Angels would need to eat some salary and if they decide to sell off given Ohtani walking as a FA.

- Nolan Arenado: very slim chances he gets moved unless the Cardinals really disappoint this season.

- J.D. Davis: if he becomes too expensive for San Fran after and if David Villar hits well, he might be shopped.

 

Maybe Moncada is the most likely guy who could be traded. Otherwise, the other three are complete long shots.

 

Solid list of options - but Arenado can come off it. For Rendon - Angels would need to eat almost all of the Contract.

[jaysblue]

Solid list of options - but Arenado can come off it. For Rendon - Angels would need to eat almost all of the Contract.

 

Yeah don't see the Cardinals trading off everyone even if they underachieve this season, so definitely a huge long shot they move Arenado. Would take him off the list.

 

Angels would have to eat majority of the contract. 3 years/$114M left on his contract after the 2023 season. He also has a full no trade clause, but could waive it likely if the Angels are terrible in 2024.

 

Josh Rojas wouldn't be a bad option if Arizona is open to trading him. Nothing sexy, but he could be solid at the hot corner.

[Pendleton]

Rendon makes $38,571,428 per season for each of the remaining three years. f*** that's disgusting

[jaysblue]

Rendon makes $38,571,428 per season for each of the remaining three years. f*** that's disgusting

 

His tenure with the Angels has been a disaster. Hasn't even had a full season with them.

[Pendleton]

Some 3B trade candidates next offseason I could think of:

 

- Yoán Moncada: White Sox might blow things up and Burger has been really good with the bat.

- Anthony Rendon: Angels would need to eat some salary and if they decide to sell off given Ohtani walking as a FA.

- Nolan Arenado: very slim chances he gets moved unless the Cardinals really disappoint this season.

- J.D. Davis: if he becomes too expensive for San Fran after and if David Villar hits well, he might be shopped.

 

Maybe Moncada is the most likely guy who could be traded. Otherwise, the other three are complete long shots.

 

I was going to suggest that Isaac Paredes may soon find himself bumped out of the 3B job in Tampa by Curtis Mead, but the latter is having a dreadful start to the AAA season.

[G-Snarls]

The thought of not having Chapman at 3B next year upsets me

 

But I'm just going to enjoy watching him play this year and see what happens...

[max silver]

His tenure with the Angels has been a disaster. Hasn't even had a full season with them.

 

For what it's worth he basically played a full season in 2020's covid shortened season. His contract is a warning sign for the potential downside of signing long term deals with 30+ year old players. You can never tell how a guy's body is going to hold up over time.

[Terminator]

First and foremost, whenever the Jays need an All-Star 3B we need to look to see who the A's have at the hot corner. Unfortunately for us, I don't think Jace Peterson is going to cut it this time.

[John_Havok]

The thought of not having Chapman at 3B next year upsets me

 

But I'm just going to enjoy watching him play this year and see what happens...

 

No doubt. Id hate to see him leave but even if he ends the season with a wRC+ around 150-160 he's going to have a lot of teams kicking down the door. He wont be getting those SS type of deals, but a 5 year guarantee upwards of 120 million is probably a sure thing. Aside from the hip issue he;s never really been hurt. He runs the bases well, still has above average speed at 30 whilst playing a corner IF position and is money on D. Hell, even if he hits at a 120 wRC+ like he did last season he's a 4 WAR player.

 

I'd be sorely tempted to try and get him to that 5 year 125 million dollar extension now. Problem is he'd be insane not to test free agency. It will likely be his only chance at getting that 200 million dollar payday from some team that doesn't care about his age 36+ years.

 

also,... who the f*** carries a .486 babip after 28 games???? That's so far past insane

[Terminator]

I could see the Rockies trading Ryan McMahon and he would be a good fit as a great defensive player with an average lefty bat.

 

But they are so irrational that it will be a situation where he's either definitely getting moved no matter what the offers are, or he's not getting moved at all no matter what the offers are. Will depend on how Dick Monfort feels this offseason.

[Laika]

I could see the Rockies trading Ryan McMahon and he would be a good fit as a great defensive player with an average lefty bat.

 

But they are so irrational that it will be a situation where he's either definitely getting moved no matter what the offers are, or he's not getting moved at all no matter what the offers are. Will depend on how Dick Monfort feels this offseason.

 

But they just extended him through 2027.

 

Leave it to the Rockies to turn one of their only assets approaching free agency into a brick with no value.

 

He's an okay player but the total package is a bit borderline. Like, the K-BB numbers are fringe and the power isn't amazing. Not a guy I want to own into his 30s. Metrics do like his 3B defense.

 

He's probably a .230/.300/.400 hitter outside of Coors.

[wilko]

First and foremost, whenever the Jays need an All-Star 3B we need to look to see who the A's have at the hot corner. Unfortunately for us, I don't think Jace Peterson is going to cut it this time.

 

Round 2 with Diaz or Smith?