Around Baseball 2023

[Olerud363]

I think current arb operates at something like 20/40/60 % of a player's estimated market value in arb years 1, 2 and 3. Means would be expected to make significantly more more healthy going into arb3 than the ~3M he was expected to make via arb1 for a season he wasn't expected to pitch.

 

It's why a lot of injured arb-eligible pitchers just sign multi-year deals with their teams. The alternative is often being non-tendered.

 

There is no formal 20/40/60 scale, though that is what it often works out to be. Players and team submit an offer and an arbitrator decides. There is a minimum decrease which is where the 2 year contract also becomes important because Orioles can offer 3 million if they want.

 

As far as I know the arguments are based on what the player has already done, and what similar players are getting in the same arb year, not 'expectations' for next year. So it would be a weird case based on what other injured players got in arb year 3, and there might not be much data. Not sure you can argue in arb that some team would pay Menas 15 million, so he gets 60% of that....

[connorp]

That was for 2022 and 2023

 

Ah. I see

[connorp]

Bradish you could call an SP1/2 at this point even though he's not a capital a "Ace."

 

Grayson is a stud. His xFIP is/was a bit under 4.00 both before and after his demotion. There was a lot of ERA noise in his first half but he's getting lucky in the second half so it evens out.

 

Kremer is just a nice SP5 eating innings. Means is a wild card but it's not like he was amazing pre-injury, just sneaky good.

 

On talent alone Bradish-Grayson-Means-Kremer is similar to Gausman-Berrios-Bassitt-Kikuchi but the error bars / variance on the O's four is WAY WAY WAY higher. Toronto's core is much more likely to just do their thing in 2024 and produce as expected.

 

WAY WAY WAY, how? Gausman and Grayson outcomes, sure. Berríos xERA of 4.5 and 5+ last two season, Kooch total wildcard, Bassitt turning 45. O’s have their own question marks but it’s about same

[Laika]

WAY WAY WAY, how? Gausman and Grayson outcomes, sure. Berríos xERA of 4.5 and 5+ last two season, Kooch total wildcard, Bassitt turning 45. O’s have their own question marks but it’s about same

 

Track record, injury history

 

All four of the Toronto pitchers are veterans with flawless bills of health, long term

 

It's not even close to the same. You've got Means coming back from a major injury and then some kids who don't even have bulk track records of holding up for tons of innings year over year. Also performance/talent uncertainties that don't exist to the same extent with Toronto.

[Laika]

Kremer's 167 innings is his career high by 33

Grayson's 157 innings is his career high by like 54?

Bradish's 163 innings is his career high by 20 or so.

 

These guys are liable to pop at some point. Sadly. That's ball.

[BTS]

WAY WAY WAY, how? Gausman and Grayson outcomes, sure. Berríos xERA of 4.5 and 5+ last two season, Kooch total wildcard, Bassitt turning 45. O’s have their own question marks but it’s about same

 

- Gausman is going to project for 1-3 wins more than Rodriguez, with much less downside risk

- Berrios and Bradish will project the same

- Bassitt probably projects at least a win better than Means, with much less downside risk

- Kikuchi and Kremer will project the same

 

Toronto clearly has the better rotation on paper for 2024. But Baltimore also has the means to add an impact arm, while Toronto probably isn't going to do that.

[connorp]

- Gausman is going to project for 1-3 wins more than Rodriguez, with much less downside risk

- Berrios and Bradish will project the same

- Bassitt probably projects at least a win better than Means, with much less downside risk

- Kikuchi and Kremer will project the same

 

Toronto clearly has the better rotation on paper for 2024. But Baltimore also has the means to add an impact arm, while Toronto probably isn't going to do that.

 

Bradish is better than Berrios. WAR schmar. I’ll give you Bassit slightly better than Means. Back end about the same.

It’ll depend how Grayson is. I actually just said similar to the Jays, which it is.

[BTS]

Bradish is better than Berrios. WAR schmar. I’ll give you Bassit slightly better than Means. Back end about the same.

It’ll depend how Grayson is. I actually just said similar to the Jays, which it is.

 

Bradish is out-WARing Berrios BTW

[Olerud363]

So HOU is: 3xSEA 3xARI

TEX is: 3xLAA 4xSEA

SEA is: 3xHOU 4xTEX

 

Seattle is on the f***ing ropes. Houston also has a tough outside series with Arizona, a good team that will be fighting to the end of the year.

 

Toronto might need to go 0-6 to miss the playoffs. I do believe in their ability to lose 6 straight games to a lifeless NYY and a TBR with nothing to play for.

 

 

I think the soonest Texas can clinch is Thursday so at least they won't be drunk as f*** until then. When Texas get's drunk as f*** it's easy to see Seattle easily winning the last 3, 41-2 or something, then Texas winning 90, Houston winning 90, and Seattle 89.

 

Then Toronto has to win 3 more.

 

The Anaheim games are critical. Hard to see Toronto going 0-6, but easy to see 2-4. Only Anaheim can save us by keeping Texas from getting drunk as f*** before Saturday.

 

Do we really think a Troutless, Ohtnailess, Souless mess of a franchise can beat Texas? No. So it's probably over honestly. Fangraphs says Jays have 98.5 % chance of playoffs, but they don't factor in Texas getting drunk as f***, and their models still give Anaheim a 35% chance of winning each game, when it is actually 1/10000.

[Olerud363]

Another thing fangraphs isn't factoring in is that no f***ing way Yankees have a losing season. So actually it's f***ing over. Yankees have a 30 year streak of winning seasons and no way the TV networks, the Mayor of NY, the fake President of the United States (Joe Biden), the real President of the United States (Donald J. Trump), the last remaining Kennedy and only hope for America (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.), the fake commissioner of baseball (Rob Manfred), the real commissoner of baseball (Bud Selig), Derek Jeter, the ghost of Mickie Mantle, Aaron Judge, Greg Bird, Rudy Guliani, etc. etc. etc. will let the Yankees have a losing season. So they will win 2/3 and probably sweep Toronto.

 

I estimate Toronto's playoff chances using real world risk analysis and the hard facts of life to be about 10% if that.

[Brownie19]

Will Acuna challenge Jeff Bagwell's record for the most run scored in the modern era? Needs 9 more to tie Bags at 152.

 

40/70 season with almost 150 runs scored, 100 RBI's and a .330+ average is f***ing insanity. I love it. No idea how this guy cut his K% from the mid 20's to like 11% this year.

[Laika]

Will Acuna challenge Jeff Bagwell's record for the most run scored in the modern era? Needs 9 more to tie Bags at 152.

 

40/70 season with almost 150 runs scored, 100 RBI's and a .330+ average is f***ing insanity. I love it. No idea how this guy cut his K% from the mid 20's to like 11% this year.

 

And not even a slam dunk MVP.

 

I would vote for Mookie. But I think the writers will give it to Acuna.

[Laika]

Freddie Freeman having 22 steals and +5 BsR at 33 years old is wild

 

What an insane free agent signing. Back to back 7 WAR seasons to start his contract.

 

For 6 yr, $162M

[BigCecil]

Freddie Freeman having 22 steals and +5 BsR at 33 years old is wild

 

What an insane free agent signing. Back to back 7 WAR seasons to start his contract.

 

For 6 yr, $162M

 

Thats one where both teams did well on the signings so far. Out goes Freddie and in comes Olson.

 

Freeman making a case for HOF.

[AMS528]

Thats one where both teams did well on the signings so far. Out goes Freddie and in comes Olson.

 

Freeman making a case for HOF.

 

He's at 55-57 WAR and coming off the best two seasons of his career. I think barring an absolutely unforeseeable disaster he'll make it in relatively easily with three more decent and nowhere near this good years. One more really good year and two decent years is slam dunk HOF career.

 

By the time he retires enough of the newer voters will be in place that there's not going to be as much BS.

[connorp]

He's at 55-57 WAR and coming off the best two seasons of his career. I think barring an absolutely unforeseeable disaster he'll make it in relatively easily with three more decent and nowhere near this good years. One more really good year and two decent years is slam dunk HOF career.

 

By the time he retires enough of the newer voters will be in place that there's not going to be as much BS.

 

He’s got the old school “good with the press” thing going for him. He’d do just fine in the old school way. Maybe these new wave guys will minus points for not being a minority, who knows

[Ehjays]

Jackson Holliday, Samuel Basillo the best of the Baltimore farm system haven't even shown up yet. All the secondary pieces (Cowser, Westburg, Kjerstad) have all just been called up, so in 4 years only Rutchman and Henderson will be close to free agency, all the others will be ARB1.

 

Angelos is probably just bullshitting about not signing anyone. Admittedly the attendance is a bit disappointing for a 100 win team, but they are still way ahead of where the Rays are. Next year will be telling. Attendance should be up to 2.5 million next year, coming off of a 100 win season.

 

They are going to win 100 games without using payroll on the Ryus, Springers, and Garcias of the world. Maybe they'll just keep a payroll of 60 forever... I doubt that though. Even if they don't go to a top 5 payroll, they have a huge amount of payroll space moving ahead, so hard to see them getting in to real trouble within 4 years.

 

Agreed!!! Plus this ......

 

[mphenhef]

Freddie Freeman having 22 steals and +5 BsR at 33 years old is wild

 

What an insane free agent signing. Back to back 7 WAR seasons to start his contract.

 

For 6 yr, $162M

 

just as insane is that the team that lost him is probably pretty happy too given the crazy season Olson is having.

[G-Snarls]

Astros Mariners desperation series starts today

 

Both teams have been playing like s*** but one can salvage their playoff hopes with a GOOD performance here

[Terminator]

Astros Mariners desperation series starts today

 

Both teams have been playing like s*** but one can salvage their playoff hopes with a food performance here

 

Jays would dominate any food performance competition. Especially if Manoah is available.

[BTS]

Thats one where both teams did well on the signings so far. Out goes Freddie and in comes Olson.

 

Freeman making a case for HOF.

 

I think he's basically a slam-dunk for the HoF at this point. He also has a real shot at 3000 hits

[G-Snarls]

I think he's basically a slam-dunk for the HoF at this point. He also has a real shot at 3000 hits

 

He ticks every box

[Orgfiller]

I think he's basically a slam-dunk for the HoF at this point. He also has a real shot at 3000 hits

 

Yeah, most seem to think Votto is essentially a slam dunk HOF'er, and Freeman will easily surpass him in fWAR next season barring catastrophic injury in the offseason, and will be within a couple of decent (2-3 win) seasons from also overtaking him in bWAR as well. He's peaking offensively and baserunning wise in his mid 30s lol. To be fair, this is also around exactly when Votto started succumbing to injuries and age related decline. Freddie is easily tracking to surpass him in most counting stats, with career-wise wRC+ currently a wash, though he likely ends up under as his decline years bring down the overall performance.

[G-Snarls]

Sad random stat I heard today

 

Over the last 3 seasons combined, Mike Trout has played a total of 41 games after the all Star break

[JFD]

Why is Kevin Barker ranting on my TV about Seattle underachieving. He almost seems upset that the Jays are in a playoff spot. Weird dude

[Ehjays]

Sad random stat I heard today

 

Over the last 3 seasons combined, Mike Trout has played a total of 41 games after the all Star break

 

[Stangstag]

Why is Kevin Barker ranting on my TV about Seattle underachieving. He almost seems upset that the Jays are in a playoff spot. Weird dude

 

I was watching on TV a bit and he seemed very… annoyed?? Upset? Like he didn’t want to be there

[Jimcanuck]

Sad random stat I heard today

 

Over the last 3 seasons combined, Mike Trout has played a total of 41 games after the all Star break

 

Baseball's Bobby Orr, without the championships (f***ing Halos)

[BTS]

Feels like just yesterday connorp was telling me the Padres reckless spending was fine because they’ll just keep upping payroll.

 

They’re so f***ed.

 

[connorp]

Feels like just yesterday connorp was telling me the Padres reckless spending was fine because they’ll just keep upping payroll.

 

They’re so f***ed.

 

 

Straw man building at its finest. My friend, you’re looking at it far too simply. They have DOUBLED their revenue since 2018. That’s pretty crazy. They took a franchise that’s not in a big market and generated a lot of press and excitement. Now they’re trimming around the hedges, as it’s clearly not a perennial WS team. The sport is better for their ownership.

 

Any startup usually burns through a bunch of cash at the front end for market exposure