Around Baseball 2023

[jaysblue]

The ledger does not care how much sleep you get. It's all about WAR and money, and when you flick the abacus it says that deal was a complete abomination.

 

In hindsight, AA probably learned a lot from it, and the Dickey trade. The point isn't that these trades "defined his tenure" it's just that they played significantly into his objective record when Shapiro made the unpopular decision to part ways with him.

 

Like, when he left Toronto he had a mixed track record. He made some brilliant moves and put together good and exciting teams for two runs, but he also had some huge fumble trades and the organization's farm system + MLB situation was a bit ugly (s***** farm, old expensive players)

 

Considering the huge fumble trades that were a complete abomination, he brought Toronto closer to a World Series during his tenure than Atkins has thus far.

 

But yeah I'm not disagreeing with you, those trades were awful.

[thatoneguy]

f*** the POS 2015 Royals.

[jaysblue]

f*** the POS 2015 Royals.

 

And the 2016 future Guardians!

[BigCecil]

I have to think the output by those 3 had about a 5-10% probability of happening. All 3 were sub 92 wRC+ hitters when the Braves traded for them. Soler and Rosario put up wRC+'s above 130 after the trade and of course all 3 came up huge in the playoffs. There was probably a 90% chance those 3 came in and did jack s*** to help the team and they missed the playoffs. It's a great example of how much luck and timing is involved in baseball.

 

DeJong was having a better season than Soler, Roserio and Pederson at the time we acquired him. Could you imagine if he was pumping a 135 wRC+ right now? Even Jordan Luplow is hitting well for the Twins right now and was batting cleanup for them. That said, we do have our own version of the Braves 3 acquisitions on the team right now in Schneider, Horwitz and Clement. We're getting way more out of them than anyone would have expected. If we sneak into the playoffs like the 2021 Braves and those 3 play pivotal roles on our way to a deep playoff run - will the FO get kudos for adding them to the team also?

 

I would probably argue that neither AA or Atkins would deserve a ton of credit - besides the fact they had, or acquired more 'depth' and gave themselves a higher chance of striking gold. At the end of the day, they will have hit the ace on the river when there was a 10% chance of winning the hand.

 

I take your point. They hit the s*** out of the ball when it mattered most. That often happens. f***, Pat Borders was a WS MVP. Without those guys hot ATL just doesn't win. The 3 of them at times had been impactful their careers. Soler had 48 bombs and a 136 wRC+ in 2019. Pederson is a career 130 bat vs RHP.

 

I listened to an interview where AA said he didn't want to go all in in '21 because of the players lost like Acuna Jr etc, but he would add pieces because he liked the run differential at the deadline. Plus what he learned in TOR at previous deadlines about the clubhouse impact of doing too little. He thought the ATL 2021 record was better than it showed at the deadline. Whatever...that was his view.

 

Game is full of luck to be sure and it colors perceptions. Like why is Joe Carter on the Level of Excellence? lol It wasn't his career WAR in TOR. The answer to your question is yes, they probably would. Although the 3 you mentioned aren't analogous to the 3 players AA picked up. Soler ain't Ernie Clement.

 

GM's need to be lucky to be good, and good to be lucky at the end of the day.

Edited September 15, 2023 by BigCecil

[Ehjays]

 

Classic quote

[max silver]

Yeah they were awful at the time considering but did the Jays really miss anyone of significance in that Marlins trade?

 

At the time, it was tough signing big name FA's in Toronto so I understand some of the reasoning behind it and to be honest it wasn't all that bad. Reyes had a 2.5 WAR in 93 games in 2013 and a 3.8 WAR in 2014. Completely fell off in 2015, though AA traded for Tulo at the deadline. Mark Buehrle was really solid and durable here. Posted WARs of 2.2, 3.7 and 2 during his three seasons here. The X factor was Josh Johnson. If he was healthy, would have made the trade look better than it was. He was 28-years-old coming off a 3.3 WAR season and who had a 5.5 WAR and 6 WAR season in 2009 and 2010. Who would have thought Johnson was done after the 2013 season at the age of 29?

 

The RA Dickey trade was the one that hurt. It happened because of the Marlins trade unfortunately. Definitely was a weird trade by AA and probably was his worst. Wasn't a fan of acquiring Dickey at that high price tag, but he for the most part was durable and ate innings. 1.8 WAR in each season here from 2013-2015 and a 0.8 WAR in 2016. Still, wish the Jays had Thor in 2015 and 2016.

 

Apparently Josh Johnson failed his pre-trade physical and he had a really checkered injury history before that as well. It's not hugely surprising that he completely washed out of baseball soon afterwards.

[glory]

Apparently Josh Johnson failed his pre-trade physical and he had a really checkered injury history before that as well. It's not hugely surprising that he completely washed out of baseball soon afterwards.

 

Yeah, David Samson went over the deal a few years ago. Apparently, both Johnson and Henderson Alvarez failed their physicals, but the deal was pushed through regardless, and the Marlins apparently chose Nicolino over Syndergaard. Unfortunately the Mets didn't choose Sanchez over Thor in the Dickey deal. Or maybe they asked for Thor, I don't remember.

 

Those two deals were awful. No other way to slice it. AA improved significantly after that (2014-15), but everything those two trades represented was just awful. Trading a glut of prospects, taking on enormous salary attached to 30-something's, etc.

[connorp]

I know it’s the In Thing in baseball and the media to kick Ohtani’s nuts, but I wonder it Seager will get any significant MVP votes if he finishes strong and Texas wins the division.

 

I blew $200 for fun in Jays to win ALCS at 9-1 a few weeks back in Atlantic City. Genuinely did a double take on Seager at +10,000 for MVP.

[Krylian]

If Seager can hit 60 homers and bat 350 I think he can genuinely beat Ohtani. I doin't like Ohtani because he makes too much money honestly. Like share a bit Jesus Christ. Im struggling over here can barely afford my double payments on my 6% mortgage.

 

 

What?!?

[L54]

I'm struggling to make double payments on my variable mortgage. Ohtani could pay off my mortgage 100 times just on all his salary and endorsements this year, but he chooses greed.

 

Tap water is the leading cause of diabetes in cats

[Krylian]

I'm struggling to make double payments on my variable mortgage. Ohtani could pay off my mortgage 100 times just on all his salary and endorsements this year, but he chooses greed.

 

Hopefully he signs for half a billion and you lose your house.

[connorp]

Man, the Rangers are some dumbasses trying to buy their way into the playoffs with Seager and Semien etc

 

They should’ve just stayed a sub .500 team for 3-4 years. Picking 11th in the draft instead of 23rd for 3-4 years would’ve been a lot more beneficial. I know as a fan that’s what I’d want

[wilko]

 

Classic quote

 

[Carlos Danger]

I have to think the output by those 3 had about a 5-10% probability of happening. All 3 were sub 92 wRC+ hitters when the Braves traded for them. Soler and Rosario put up wRC+'s above 130 after the trade and of course all 3 came up huge in the playoffs. There was probably a 90% chance those 3 came in and did jack s*** to help the team and they missed the playoffs. It's a great example of how much luck and timing is involved in baseball.

 

DeJong was having a better season than Soler, Roserio and Pederson at the time we acquired him. Could you imagine if he was pumping a 135 wRC+ right now? Even Jordan Luplow is hitting well for the Twins right now and was batting cleanup for them. That said, we do have our own version of the Braves 3 acquisitions on the team right now in Schneider, Horwitz and Clement. We're getting way more out of them than anyone would have expected. If we sneak into the playoffs like the 2021 Braves and those 3 play pivotal roles on our way to a deep playoff run - will the FO get kudos for adding them to the team also?

 

I would probably argue that neither AA or Atkins would deserve a ton of credit - besides the fact they had, or acquired more 'depth' and gave themselves a higher chance of striking gold. At the end of the day, they will have hit the ace on the river when there was a 10% chance of winning the hand.

 

So wait, you are saying an experienced GM who had just come from the Dodgers at that time, acquired players that had a 90-95% probability of failing and because it actually worked out it was just total luck.

 

You need to break from the robotic data in data out does not compute cycle you are always on. You are using their wRC+ numbers for the year. What about that month prior to the deadline. What about the situations they were in vice what they would be in Atlanta, what was their platoon split if AA's plan was a strong side platoon when they were playing everyday with their former team. What about run prevention (Duval) vs offensive output when combined with the run differential of the Braves at the time.

 

Both AA and Theo Epstein have said as they matured and gained experience, it is not all about the straight analytics. There is a balance.

 

I really don't see astute guys like AA making deadline moves, if their internal assessment of success had a 90% chance of failure.

[Spanky__99]

The process was fine, they did get it their way but they got lucky boys, it was almost freakish how huge them players acquired stepped up, that's what is so great about this game, there's never really a concrete answer. It could've been a disaster and noone would care as AA was in a bind. Dude's a slick exec, now though. He was good with the T-dot aside from the infamous trades that snowballed, but no denying he's a dog now.

[John_Havok]

 

65% called strike accuracy folks. 65%

[Spanky__99]

 

65% called strike accuracy folks. 65%

 

lmfao... you edit it in for me.

[JFD]

Guardians > Jays apparently

 

Baseball is so f***ed

[glory]

Guardians powerhouse offense showing the Jays how it’s done.

 

Can’t believe the Jays couldn’t split that 4 game series.

[hanton]

Kirby vs Miller

 

helluva a matchup

[jaysblue]

The process was fine, they did get it their way but they got lucky boys, it was almost freakish how huge them players acquired stepped up, that's what is so great about this game, there's never really a concrete answer. It could've been a disaster and noone would care as AA was in a bind. Dude's a slick exec, now though. He was good with the T-dot aside from the infamous trades that snowballed, but no denying he's a dog now.

 

AA even at his worst has been better than Atkins thus far. Let that sink in Spanky

[Stangstag]

Guardians > Jays apparently

 

Baseball is so f***ed

 

They beat us 4 of 7 so yeah it checks out

[hanton]

wow Teo made a mess of that play and they still gave Muncy a triple

[Masterbather]

Kirby will likely never get to throw 100 pitches again

Didn't even take him 100 pitches to capitulate this time.

 

What's he going to complain about now that they're making him start too many games? Not enough days rest? Thermostat was set wrong in the clubhouse?

[Spanky__99]

AA even at his worst has been better than Atkins thus far. Let that sink in Spanky

 

Okay, jaysblue, I recall always enjoying AA as a an exec. for the Jays, don't get your satire, honestly. So make like a tree...

 

ETA; What's with you and AA man, get a grip.

Edited September 16, 2023 by Spanky99

[Jimcanuck]

I for one am not going to blame the front office for Vlad's epic fail. Every GM in baseball would have expected much better from him.

[jaysblue]

Great to see Texas, Houston and Seattle all lose yesterday! This likely will go down to the wire.

[jaysblue]

Max Muncy in 2023:

 

.209/.333/.495 with 35 HR's and 99 RBI, 122 wRC+ and 2.8 WAR

[Masterbather]

I for one am not going to blame the front office for Vlad's epic fail. Every GM in baseball would have expected much better from him.

Why? For a year and a half he was declining. Suddenly he's supposed to not? Sure this season was worse than last year, but not by miles. Not by an amount that substantially changes the fact that this team is underwhelming. I'm not suggesting it might not have happened, he might have gone back to superstar status, but he showed nothing by the end of last year to suggest that would happen. It was just hope, nothing more.

[jaysblue]

Why? For a year and a half he was declining. Suddenly he's supposed to not? Sure this season was worse than last year, but not by miles. Not by an amount that substantially changes the fact that this team is underwhelming. I'm not suggesting it might not have happened, he might have gone back to superstar status, but he showed nothing by the end of last year to suggest that would happen. It was just hope, nothing more.

 

I wouldn't blame the FO on Vlad's epic fail but do place some blame on their failure to address the offensive issues with this team as a whole. Could have the Blue Jays added another bat or two before or at the trade deadline? Could have Atkins and the FO done a better job at improving the teams defense without sacrificing that much offense in the lineup? It was evident by June/July, the lineup was the biggest issue.

 

As with Vladdy, I think you just have to go into 2024 thinking he's just a 2 WAR player and not a superstar offensively. Meaning the Jays need to add another elite bat or two to pair with Bo, instead of expecting Vlad to be that guy. The great thing is we all know the upside and potential Vlad still has, so if he returns to his 2021 form, even better. I just wouldn't bank on him automatically returning to his 2021 form after two seasons of mediocre performances. So I think it's vital Atkins goes out and adds a big bat this offseason if they're serious about contending in 2024. I wouldn't be relying on Vladdy again to be that guy.