The Blue Jays Are Repeating a Trend That Led to Problems Late Last Season

Braydon Fisher has been one of the better relievers for the Blue Jays over the last two seasons. Last year, he posted a 2.70 ERA and had a 30.7 percent strikeout rate over 50 1/3 innings. He was a reliable option late in games for manager John Schneider, with a 21.3 percent strikeout-minus-walk rate and a .178 batting average against.

This season, Fisher has been just as outstanding, posting a 2.62 ERA and holding hitters to a .174 average. His strikeout rate is slightly down, but it's still an impressive 27.1 percent. A possible reason for the decline is that he isn't getting as much horizontal break on his pitches. The righty has even changed how he throws his cutter, causing it to break slightly to his arm side rather than his glove side.

Chart data is from Baseball Savant.

I'm not sure what's causing the decline in movement other than a possible change in grip or release point, but Fisher is still finding ways to get outs. He's been more successful getting groundballs this season (47.5 percent) compared to last season (36.4 percent). This vast difference is a drastic improvement, and it's because he's getting batters to hit the top of the ball at a 37.5 percent rate, which is above the MLB average (32.3 percent).

There is cause for concern, though, with Fisher having already pitched in 32 games (one behind Mason Fluharty) and on pace for 81 appearances. Being overworked is a massive concern for young pitchers, but the Blue Jays want to utilize their best relief arms. We saw the issue of less experienced arms being overworked last season with Brendon Little. He was the only reliable southpaw in the bullpen for most of the season after Eric Lauer moved to the starting rotation, while lefties Fluharty and Justin Bruihl also had their struggles. 

Last season, Little threw in 79 big league games, 30 more than in 2024, and pitched 68 1/3 innings. His ERA rose from 2.03 in the first half of the season to 4.88 in the second half, and the strikeout rate dropped from 44.8 percent to 24.1 percent over 20 fewer innings. The decline could have been due to decreased velocity from overuse or insufficient offseason preparation for the increased workload. When you pitch in that many games, it means you are getting up in the bullpen to warm up and then pitching in the game. This usage puts significant strain on a pitcher's arm, and there have been a few instances of pitchers throwing in back-to-back games. 

Fisher and Fluharty are both at risk of repeating Little's late-season collapse. The risk stems from the bullpen being heavily relied on right now, with the starting rotation bitten by the injury bug. José Berríos, Shane Bieber, Dylan Cease, Bowden Francis, Cody Ponce, and Max Scherzer are all on the injured list. 

However, Cease and Scherzer have completed rehab starts and may be returning to Toronto soon. Bieber is also on a rehab start assignment, but he's been out all season and will need a few more starts before returning to the big leagues. Ponce, Francis, and Berríos are out for the year. 

Yimi García has also begun a rehab stint in Single-A Dunedin and is eyeing a return to Toronto later this month. One thing is certain: The Blue Jays need to find a way, quick, to relieve the workload on their young relievers. That may mean making a move well before the trade deadline.