Blue Jays acquire Daulton Varsho for Moreno and Gurriel

[BTS]

Creating something out of thin air is as much a result of necessity as it is anything else. Baltimore simply has to because they are cheapskates.

 

If the Jays have a hole at DH, Atkins isn't going to be dumpster diving for the Ryan O'Hearns of the world to fill it. Instead he signed Brandon Belt on a 1 year deal and he pumps out 2.3 WAR in 100 games. He also got 45 homers out of Semien on a one year deal and a Cy Young out of Robbie Ray on a 1 year deal. For a top 10 payroll that kind of stuff is similar to creating something out of nothing.

 

Yeah. Toronto has a 3.86 ERA over the last 3 years and Baltimore is at 4.56. I don't know if Baltimore is going to be able to reproduce the success they had dumpster diving in 2023, but to whatever extent they're better than Toronto at turning shitbags into useful arms (and I'm not convinced they are), Toronto can just keep flopping that Rogers wallet down and making up the difference. And Atkins and his nerds have been really, really good at identifying proven arms to invest in.

[Laika]

That's a good point. It will be hard for Baltimore to keep finding multiple stud relievers for nothing. Toronto should be operating more like the other high payroll teams.

 

Actually, their bullpen churning has negative consequences people don't often talk about.

 

August 2 2021 they released Evan Phillips...

[connorp]

Well the FO is lucky Toronto is a beta city and culture. A lot of cities and owners aren’t so forgiving about “randomness” of the playoffs…

 

They don’t marvel at all the good moves someone made to make it a playoff team. 4 years ago they came of the scene and were considered a dangerous WC team..ok.. they lost but stage was set..

 

Starting to next year they were a WS contender that at the least would contend for division.. for 3 straight years it’s been apparent a couple months into the season they would battle for the wild card lives at best. Then when/if they make the post-season, it’s a quick broom.

 

So a lot of major US cities wouldn’t give a s*** about this “body of work” that enabled them to battle for the last playoff spot each year, while having a decent sized payroll

[connorp]

Especially when BAL and TB seem to be surging ahead, and you can never count out NY and Boston

[Omar]

Well the FO is lucky Toronto is a beta city and culture. A lot of cities and owners aren’t so forgiving about “randomness” of the playoffs…

 

They don’t marvel at all the good moves someone made to make it a playoff team. 4 years ago they came of the scene and were considered a dangerous WC team..ok.. they lost but stage was set..

 

Starting to next year they were a WS contender that at the least would contend for division.. for 3 straight years it’s been apparent a couple months into the season they would battle for the wild card lives at best. Then when/if they make the post-season, it’s a quick broom.

 

So a lot of major US cities wouldn’t give a s*** about this “body of work” that enabled them to battle for the last playoff spot each year, while having a decent sized payroll

 

To the contrary they are all forgiving. That's why we don't have 29 new general managers every year.

[Terminator]

NYY keep trotting Cashman out there year after year

[BTS]

Dodgers have been letting Andrew Friedman lose in the playoffs with a top-3 payroll in baseball for the last decade, with the only exception being the short season. Kenny Williams was in charge in Chicago for like 15 straight years of ineptitude. Preller has mismanaged a massive payroll in SD for years with no consequences. Cashman in NY. Dipoto has been treading water for like 8 years in Seattle. Zaidi has had one good season in SF and just got a 4 year contract extension. Daniels got to botch things in Texas for like 10 years.

 

connorp is not a serious poster

[John_Havok]

Dodgers have been letting Andrew Friedman lose in the playoffs with a top-3 payroll in baseball for the last decade, with the only exception being the short season. Kenny Williams was in charge in Chicago for like 15 straight years of ineptitude. Preller has mismanaged a massive payroll in SD for years with no consequences. Cashman in NY. Dipoto has been treading water for like 8 years in Seattle. Zaidi has had one good season in SF and just got a 4 year contract extension. Daniels got to botch things in Texas for like 10 years.

 

connorp is not a serious poster

 

These types of jobs are long term in nature. Just using Atkins as an example... he took over starting in 2016, but when did the team really start to resemble what he built vs what he was left with?

 

I'd arguably say the latter part of 2019 was the first time you could really see his fingerprints on the actual team. 2016 was all basically leftovers, and 2017 and 2018 were just ... do the best you can to be not terrible with shorter term FAs while trying to restock the system through the draft and trades.

 

2020-2023 has objectively been successful in the regular season and has made the playoffs 3 times. Rogers is making boatloads of money off the Jays. In any sort of company review process, Atkins and Shapiro have been a smashing success from a corporate point of view.

 

Fans point of view, basically if you don't win a world series, you should be fired every year.

[connorp]

Dodgers have been letting Andrew Friedman lose in the playoffs with a top-3 payroll in baseball for the last decade, with the only exception being the short season. Kenny Williams was in charge in Chicago for like 15 straight years of ineptitude. Preller has mismanaged a massive payroll in SD for years with no consequences. Cashman in NY. Dipoto has been treading water for like 8 years in Seattle. Zaidi has had one good season in SF and just got a 4 year contract extension. Daniels got to botch things in Texas for like 10 years.

 

connorp is not a serious poster

 

Titles mean a lot in terms of job security. You mentioned a lot of names with WS trophies

[BTS]

Titles mean a lot in terms of job security. You mentioned a lot of names with WS trophies

 

3 of the 7

 

The only org that seems to have a trigger finger less than 8-10 years for the people they hire to run baseball ops is Boston

[connorp]

3 of the 7

 

The only org that seems to have a trigger finger less than 8-10 years for the people they hire to run baseball ops is Boston

 

I’m not talking about inventing the wheel here. The board of libs this year voted to boot him. I think Shapiro is at least starting to feel some pressure on things with the GM. It’s hardly outlandish to suggest the GM gets booted at this point in a different market. He did a good job building a perennial WC contender

[connorp]

Mmm.. could be a miscommunication though. I’m saying the next shoe would drop, which is the GM gets canned. Manager was the first shoe a couple years ago

[BTS]

I’m not talking about inventing the wheel here. The board of libs this year voted to boot him. I think Shapiro is at least starting to feel some pressure on things with the GM. It’s hardly outlandish to suggest the GM gets booted at this point in a different market. He did a good job building a perennial WC contender

 

Atkins/Shapiro are almost certainly in the same boat in like 95% of MLB orgs: a fanbase that's wants change, and ownership that not going to move on yet. Your post was dumb.

[Laika]

If Atkins is feeling any heat it's just from the media/fans.

 

As far as the org is concerned his job is probably not close to at risk. We can assume Rogers is happy with Shapiro, and we know Shapiro thinks Atkins is solid. And ownership probably does not care at all about the fan/media stuff being negative right now.

[connorp]

If Atkins is feeling any heat it's just from the media/fans.

 

As far as the org is concerned his job is probably not close to at risk. We can assume Rogers is happy with Shapiro, and we know Shapiro thinks Atkins is solid. And ownership probably does not care at all about the fan/media stuff being negative right now.

 

My friend, in the past you’ve essentially agreed to my position that Rodgers doesn’t appear to be the type of ownership group that shows much obsession with “taking the next step and getting deeper into the playoffs”. Other organizations with different kinds of ownership often times see it differently

[BTS]

My friend, in the past you’ve essentially agreed to my position that Rodgers doesn’t appear to be the type of ownership group that shows much obsession with “taking the next step and getting deeper into the playoffs”. Other organizations with different kinds of ownership often times see it differently

 

I think we'll see Atkins replaced if the team doesn't get out of the wild card round in 2024. Shapiro probably stays as long as he wants.

[wilko]

I think we'll see Atkins replaced if the team doesn't get out of the wild card round in 2024. Shapiro probably stays as long as he wants.

 

[Laika]

I think we'll see Atkins replaced if the team doesn't get out of the wild card round in 2024. Shapiro probably stays as long as he wants.

 

You think so?

 

I think Shapiro would still say that the "total body of work" for Atkins is solid. Shapiro is probably too objective to make a decision based on a small string of 1-3 game "series".

[connorp]

You think so?

 

I think Shapiro would still say that the "total body of work" for Atkins is solid. Shapiro is probably too objective to make a decision based on a small string of 1-3 game "series".

 

Do you have PT availability in your office to get paid to do all your thinking? If so, I could always use pocket money.

 

Is failing to even sniff a division title the last 3 years not his body or work. When it was a roster expected to compete for that. When he’s playing in those 3 game series’, it’s already a fail at this point for many organizations that would be expecting more.

 

There’s now increased pressure from the division completion getting better at a more rapid pace.

[Laika]

Do you have PT availability in your office to get paid to do all your thinking? If so, I could always use pocket money.

 

Is failing to even sniff a division title the last 3 years not his body or work. When it was a roster expected to compete for that. When he’s playing in those 3 game series’, it’s already a fail at this point for many organizations that would be expecting more.

 

There’s now increased pressure from the division completion getting better at a more rapid pace.

 

I'm not expressing my personal opinion

 

I'm expressing how I think Shapiro would see it

 

Personally, I'm probably canning Atkins if 2024 looks like 2023

 

The only way they lose in the WC but he would stick on, for me, would be if the team just LOOKS better and more competitive all year long. Like, if they win 98 games and end up as WC1 and then lose because of dumb playoff luck, whatever. Like the Rays this year.

[MikeM3]

The game has probably passed Shapiro by. There's no way he can keep up with the literal science and tech wars going on right now. If Atkins keeps getting 85+ wins then Shapiro doesn't want to look too far into it.

 

I'm sure he gets all the mlb transactions and can give intelligent input quickly if he had to but the actual development strategies and lower minors tech, he probably is completely out of the loop.

[max silver]

Do you have PT availability in your office to get paid to do all your thinking? If so, I could always use pocket money.

 

Is failing to even sniff a division title the last 3 years not his body or work. When it was a roster expected to compete for that. When he’s playing in those 3 game series’, it’s already a fail at this point for many organizations that would be expecting more.

 

There’s now increased pressure from the division completion getting better at a more rapid pace.

 

The key moving forward for the team to reach it's potential for the existing players to play up to their capabilities. Atkins assembled what could have reasonably been expected to challenge for a division title.

[BigCecil]

If Atkins is feeling any heat it's just from the media/fans.

 

As far as the org is concerned his job is probably not close to at risk. We can assume Rogers is happy with Shapiro, and we know Shapiro thinks Atkins is solid. And ownership probably does not care at all about the fan/media stuff being negative right now.

 

That matters. Rogers has invested in the big renos and payroll for an ROI. I'm an exec at a company that used to cater the Rogers Center - we ran all concessions/everything.

 

Attendance records were broken and things were great though 93. In the dark years following the corporate money bailed and The RC went from 180 boxes purchased to 7. Our rev in all areas was crushed and it was ugly. Hockey is still the DNA of most fans in Canada and the #1 product.

 

If the product on the field remains "competitive" enough for eyeballs and seats, and we don't go all White Sox, I think you are right. The 3 wildcards help make this a bit less of a challenge. If the product has a couple lean years the renos and missed Bo/Vlad window could become an epitaph for this FO.

 

Atkins is on his last life line in '24 regardless in my view - just missing or making it or flaming out won't keep him there. Which is fine.

[Ehjays]

[connorp]

The key moving forward for the team to reach it's potential for the existing players to play up to their capabilities. Atkins assembled what could have reasonably been expected to challenge for a division title.

 

Bad take. There’s a lot of teams that look good on paper that don’t perform on the field. Paper tiger is only worth so many points.

[BigCecil]

Bad take. There’s a lot of teams that look good on paper that don’t perform on the field. Paper tiger is only worth so many points.

 

100%. Mets, SDP etc. ChiSox were supposed to challenge on paper and missed the window. The FO gets the glory & accolades when it goes well and the opposite when it doesn't = law of the jungle.

[max silver]

Bad take. There’s a lot of teams that look good on paper that don’t perform on the field. Paper tiger is only worth so many points.

 

Can't say I agree with you here. I don't think it's all all unreasonable to have expected at least semi similar production from established players compared to prior seasons. The combination of Vlad, Springer, Kirk, Espinal, Manoah and Varsho combined for a drop of approximately 14-15 WAR compared to 2022. Springer is the only guy who is old enough to have expected a chance for his production to have completely fallen off at this point, and perhaps Espinal won't ever recreate his previous success but the rest of these guys should be in the the prime of their careers. If the team has any kind of shot whatsoever to compete in 2024-2025 they need to have bounceback seasons from at least some of these players.

[connorp]

Can't say I agree with you here. I don't think it's all all unreasonable to have expected at least semi similar production from established players compared to prior seasons. The combination of Vlad, Springer, Kirk, Espinal, Manoah and Varsho combined for a drop of approximately 14-15 WAR compared to 2022. Springer is the only guy who is old enough to have expected a chance for his production to have completely fallen off at this point, and perhaps Espinal won't ever recreate his previous success but the rest of these guys should be in the the prime of their careers. If the team has any kind of shot whatsoever to compete in 2024-2025 they need to have bounceback seasons from at least some of these players.

 

I don’t think you’re grasping the other side. In sports, you are mostly evaluated on results. It may have been perfectly reasonable to assume Varsho would be a 5-6 WAR player. I know that was certainly a lot of people’s projections here. Nobody cares what the March projection was in October.

 

This also isn’t our job. We aren’t paid to determine if Kirk should be traded, if there’s reasons to believe Springer is declining, Vlad may not bounce back, etc.. that’s for a GM to decide and be accountable for going into a season. Same when they sign a FA.

 

In any business I know, the leaders are responsible for results. Widely Missing projections three years in a row is luckily a position I’ve never been in

[max silver]

I don’t think you’re grasping the other side. In sports, you are mostly evaluated on results. It may have been perfectly reasonable to assume Varsho would be a 5-6 WAR player. I know that was certainly a lot of people’s projections here. Nobody cares what the March projection was in October.

 

This also isn’t our job. We aren’t paid to determine if Kirk should be traded, if there’s reasons to believe Springer is declining, Vlad may not bounce back, etc.. that’s for a GM to decide and be accountable for going into a season. Same when they sign a FA.

 

In any business I know, the leaders are responsible for results. Widely Missing projections three years in a row is luckily a position I’ve never been in

 

I certainly wouldn't have projected Varsho as a 5-6 win player, but I don't think there should have been a lot of issues with projecting him in the 4-5 win range where he had settled in as a regular in Arizona. I fully agree that ultimately it's Atkins that should hold the most level of accountability for the collective underperformance of so much of the team's supposed core. Some of this could be fitness related in the case of the heavier set of players in Manoah, Kirk and Vlad, but then some of this is also a baffling inability for the team to hit as a collective in Rogers Center in 2023. The home numbers really sunk the overall offensive season for the likes of Varsho and Vlad in particular as they were much better hitters on the road. The organization needs to determine how to help these players perform up to the level that their inherent talent levels should allow. The overwhelming majority of these players more than likely return in 2024 and will be key to whether the team can compete in the remaining few years in the current window.

[glory]

If Atkins is feeling any heat it's just from the media/fans.

 

As far as the org is concerned his job is probably not close to at risk. We can assume Rogers is happy with Shapiro, and we know Shapiro thinks Atkins is solid. And ownership probably does not care at all about the fan/media stuff being negative right now.

 

Since 2020, the Jays have the 6th best regular season record in baseball (304-242), 2 games behind the Yankees. I tend to agree that while we may think Atkins' job is in danger, from a business aspect he's probably done more than enough to keep his bosses happy. The only thing he hasn't done is had playoff success, but a lot of that is out of his control, and Shapiro is likely firmly in the "playoffs at a crapshoot" camp so he may focus more on the regular season success.

 

I think the only way Atkins is gone after 2024 is if the team falls out of contention. If they are in contention and/or make the playoffs, then he's likely fine even if they go 0-2 in the WC round again. In 2021-22, he built a top 5 offense in baseball, and in 2023 built the best (or close to it) pitching staff in baseball. He's gotta find a way to make that happen in the same season.