2022/2023 offseason thread

[Terminator]

A lot of talk about moving Springer from CF but he seems to be about average there and the metrics back it up. I suppose a lot of that talk comes from trying to keep him healthy and his age but I'm not entirely sure if a move to RF would make that much of a difference. If a move falls into our lap I'd be all for it but I'm not too concerned about him in CF for another year. If Teoscar leaves after the year, that's when I think moving Springer to RF makes more sense.

 

Bo, on the other hand, had some of the worst metrics I've ever seen this year. Moving him to 2B might be the more prudent move. Switching him with Espinal who has great defensive metrics could be an in-house option but it looks like Espinal's arm strength rates really poor. He also doesn't really *seem* like he'd be a good defensive SS but I just don't know enough about their defense to say one way or the other.

[Captain_Obvious]

A lot of talk about moving Springer from CF but he seems to be about average there and the metrics back it up. I suppose a lot of that talk comes from trying to keep him healthy and his age but I'm not entirely sure if a move to RF would make that much of a difference. If a move falls into our lap I'd be all for it but I'm not too concerned about him in CF for another year. If Teoscar leaves after the year, that's when I think moving Springer to RF makes more sense.

 

Bo, on the other hand, had some of the worst metrics I've ever seen this year. Moving him to 2B might be the more prudent move. Switching him with Espinal who has great defensive metrics could be an in-house option but it looks like Espinal's arm strength rates really poor. He also doesn't really *seem* like he'd be a good defensive SS but I just don't know enough about their defense to say one way or the other.

 

Which metrics say Springer is average?

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=230&type=1&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=13,d&page=2_30

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=230&type=1&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=19,d

 

 

Getting a better CF allows Springer to move RF and Teoscar to LF. This would be much better than what we had this year.

[Spanky99]

A lot of talk about moving Springer from CF but he seems to be about average there and the metrics back it up. I suppose a lot of that talk comes from trying to keep him healthy and his age but I'm not entirely sure if a move to RF would make that much of a difference. If a move falls into our lap I'd be all for it but I'm not too concerned about him in CF for another year. If Teoscar leaves after the year, that's when I think moving Springer to RF makes more sense.

 

Bo, on the other hand, had some of the worst metrics I've ever seen this year. Moving him to 2B might be the more prudent move. Switching him with Espinal who has great defensive metrics could be an in-house option but it looks like Espinal's arm strength rates really poor. He also doesn't really *seem* like he'd be a good defensive SS but I just don't know enough about their defense to say one way or the other.

 

Agreed on Springer top 10 CF'er in ball, adding Nimmo would change that though. lol

 

As for Bo, the Jays have showed zero reason that would change, mind you, they were in on someone IIRC at SS last season. Unless that happens they aren't moving him off short.

[keggy]

A lot of talk about moving Springer from CF but he seems to be about average there and the metrics back it up. I suppose a lot of that talk comes from trying to keep him healthy and his age but I'm not entirely sure if a move to RF would make that much of a difference. If a move falls into our lap I'd be all for it but I'm not too concerned about him in CF for another year. If Teoscar leaves after the year, that's when I think moving Springer to RF makes more sense.

 

For me moving Bichette is purely a performance issue, but with Springer it's more about keeping him physically intact for the remaining 4 years of his contract, which takes him into his age 37 season.

 

Springer is playable in CF but the conventional wisdom is that moving to a corner will prevent injuries due to decreased workload. It's the same argument for Trout's eventual move to a corner. Given the damage to his elbow, LF might be an even better option than RF to reduce max effort throws.

[Terminator]

Which metrics say Springer is average?

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=230&type=1&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=13,d&page=2_30

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=230&type=1&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=19,d

 

 

Getting a better CF allows Springer to move RF and Teoscar to LF. This would be much better than what we had this year.

 

Well for starters the two metrics you just linked to are pretty average LOL. A -4 DRS and UZR/150 of 0.1 are definitely playable and better than guys like Mike Trout, Christian Pache, Brett Phillips, and even Jackie Bradley Jr.

 

But if you look at his statcast page his OAA, Outfielder Jump and Arm Strength all grade out as above average. His OAA, probably the overall most important of the three, puts him in the 70th percentile. That's not just average, that's good!

 

I don't know what CFer you have in mind but there are zero starting caliber players in FA last I looked. It would take a pretty significant trade to improve upon a Gurriel-Springer-Teoscar OF, not to mention that you'd need to find a Gurriel trade on top of it. If something falls into our laps I'd definitely be interested. And if there is some way to prove that RF would keep him healthier I'd listen as well. But the team has much bigger needs than CF defense right now.

[Terminator]

Woops just saw Nimmo come up. He didn't appear on Spotrac's list for CF. His metrics are better than Springer in some instances and worse in others. His high OBP, left handed bat would be nice. But he's often injured as well and come next year you guys would be wanting to acquire yet another centerfielder so we could then move Nimmo to the other corner OF to save the wear and tear on his body too.

[Captain_Obvious]

Well for starters the two metrics you just linked to are pretty average LOL. A -4 DRS and UZR/150 of 0.1 are definitely playable and better than guys like Mike Trout, Christian Pache, Brett Phillips, and even Jackie Bradley Jr.

 

But if you look at his statcast page his OAA, Outfielder Jump and Arm Strength all grade out as above average. His OAA, probably the overall most important of the three, puts him in the 70th percentile. That's not just average, that's good!

 

I don't know what CFer you have in mind but there are zero starting caliber players in FA last I looked. It would take a pretty significant trade to improve upon a Gurriel-Springer-Teoscar OF, not to mention that you'd need to find a Gurriel trade on top of it. If something falls into our laps I'd definitely be interested. And if there is some way to prove that RF would keep him healthier I'd listen as well. But the team has much bigger needs than CF defense right now.

 

You're right. CF is not the biggest problem defensively. SS, LF, and RF are. Signing Nimmo (29) might allow us to maintain CF defense levels while allowing Springer (33) to age in RF or LF over the next couple of years.

[Spanky99]

Sign Conforto, he'd be nice... Conforto, Diaz and re-sign Stripling, easy peasy.

 

Trading interchangeable assets for depth and trade a Catcher + for a good SP we're made.

 

I should be GM.

[Terminator]

You're right. CF is not the biggest problem defensively. SS, LF, and RF are. Signing Nimmo (29) might allow us to maintain CF defense levels while allowing Springer (33) to age in RF or LF over the next couple of years.

 

I didn't say we had bigger defensive needs than CF. I said we had bigger needs than CF defense. Much bigger. Starting pitching, bullpen and then SS defense are all in worse spots than CF defense. I assume we have limited resources this offseason and I'd hate to see us spend most of them on an oft injured CFer when we've got bigger holes to worry about. On top of it, look at Nimmo's injury history. If you are worried about the wear and tear on Springer's body in CF and want to move him to a corner, the same logic means we'll be looking to move Nimmo to a corner a year after we sign him too. Pass.

[jaysblue]

Sign Conforto, he'd be nice... Conforto, Diaz and re-sign Stripling, easy peasy.

 

Trading interchangeable assets for depth and trade a Catcher + for a good SP we're made.

 

I should be GM.

 

I'm down for that Jay.

 

Do you want Duran back or not?

[Daniel Labude]

Kirk for Edward Cabrera

 

And

 

Zulueta, Barger, Horwitz for Ian Happ

 

Sign Knebel

Sign Bass

Sign Boyd

Sign Stripling

 

C: Jansen/Moreno

1B: Vlad/Gurriel/Merrifield

2B: Bo/Merrifield/Happ

SS: Espinal/Bo

3B: Chapman/Espinal

LF: Happ/Gurriel/Merrifield

CF: Springer/Happ/Merrifield

RF: Teoscar/Merrifield

DH: Gurriel/Springer/Vlad/Jansen/Moreno etc.

 

Bench: Biggio and Lopez

 

SP: Manoah

SP: Gausman

SP: Stripling

SP: Berrios

SP: Cabrera/Boyd/Pearson/White/Tiedemann

 

Pen:

Romano

Bass

Knebel

Mayza

Garcia

Cabrera/Boyd/Pearson/White/Pop

 

Id say this is a realistic expectation for the offseason (no idea if my breakdown is accurate or i missed something. Don't see them spending big due to the lower quality and amount of FAs compared to last season

 

Trades will make or break the offseason imo

[Captain_Obvious]

Trade Vlad for Corbin Carroll. (14M saved)

Trade Gurriel for lottery tickets. (5.5M saved)

Do not tender Tapia. (5M saved)

Do not exercise Merrifield option (6M saved)

Sign Rondon (25M added)

Sign Swanson (15M added)

 

Payroll delta (+9M) - Should be doable

 

Line up:

C - Jansen/Kirk/Moreno

1B - Jansen/Biggio

2B - Bo/Espinal/Lopez

SS - Swanson/Espinal

3B - Chapman/Espinal

RF - Springer/Lopez

CF - Carroll/Lopez

LF - Teoscar/Lopez

DH - Rotate catchers, Springer, and Teo

 

Batting order:

Springer (RF)

Bo (2B)

Carroll (CF)

Teoscar (LF)

Jansen (1B)

Kirk (DH)

Chapman (3B)

Moreno ©

Swanson (SS)

 

Rotation:

Rondon

Gausman

Manoah

Berrios

Stripling or his replacement

 

Bullpen:

Romano

Bass

Pop

Garcia

Cimber

Mayza

Kikuchi

Pearson

[Sorrow]

I'd be non-tendering Zimmer and Tapia and bringing Zimmer back on a minor league deal.

 

I'm open to trading Kirk or Moreno but am loathe trade to Jano. I'm of the opinion that he is potentially the best player on this roster. He's a strong defensive catcher and since May 1st of 2021 he has a 144 wRC+. Which is 12th in baseball in that period of time (tied with Vladdy and Kyle Tucker, 1 wRC+ behind Ohtani). He was on pace for a 5.2 win season this year.

 

I'd prefer not trading Kirk or Moreno but I'd want young controlled starting pitching or an OF in the same boat.

 

I'd be shopping Gurriel and one of Espinal or Biggio. I'd assume Merrifield is the starting 2B in 2023.

[Spanky99]

I'm down for that Jay.

 

Do you want Duran back or not?

 

Sure do. Almost worked out to another Championship for you. lol

[Olerud363]

Kirk for Edward Cabrera

 

Zulueta, Barger, Horwitz for Ian Happ

 

 

You don't trade this package for 1 year of Ian Happ unless you are really convinced that the three prospects are high risk.

 

In particular Barger. It's pretty rare for a middle infielder to show this kind of power and (from what I hear) the average isn't a fluke because he has great exit velocities. I asked around a while ago whether his defense is flawed, and people seemed to indicate it's OK.

 

The only flaw I've heard is that his swing may not play at high levels. However so far so good, including in the AFL. Seems people on the board like the swing, but maybe there is a flaw and you sell high.

[Olerud363]

Trade Vlad for Corbin Carroll. (14M saved)

 

It sucks that Moreno was injured most of 2021, and a bit of 2022, and also lost 30 milb games during his 2 stints in Toronto. The thumb injury may have also sapped his power for most of 2022. Saw the raw power that last day in Baltimore.

 

If he had completed his great 2021 milb season, and had more playing time this year he'd be equal to Corbin as a prospect and maybe there is a match there.

 

Despite missing so much time he's still been a top 5 prospect and even flirted with the number 1 spot on some lists when they were reshuffling during the summer.

[Jimcanuck]

I'm down for that Jay.

 

Do you want Duran back or not?

 

Sure do. Almost worked out to another Championship for you. lol

 

What league is this? This sounds like a loaner deal / collusion.

[Spanky99]

What league is this? This sounds like a loaner deal / collusion.

 

They allow it... apparently. lol... I loaned him for a 3rd.

[Spanky99]

 

Damn!!!

[Daniel Labude]

You don't trade this package for 1 year of Ian Happ unless you are really convinced that the three prospects are high risk.

 

In particular Barger. It's pretty rare for a middle infielder to show this kind of power and (from what I hear) the average isn't a fluke because he has great exit velocities. I asked around a while ago whether his defense is flawed, and people seemed to indicate it's OK.

 

The only flaw I've heard is that his swing may not play at high levels. However so far so good, including in the AFL. Seems people on the board like the swing, but maybe there is a flaw and you sell high.

 

I say do it now while Barger's value is probably at his highest. If he does succeed in the MLB its still worth a cheap 1 year from Happ who had 3.5 WAR (4.3 on BR) and wRC+ of 120 and plays multiple positions while being a switch hitter. Fills a need and won't be too expensive to resign

[Captain_Obvious]

I say do it now while Barger's value is probably at his highest. If he does succeed in the MLB its still worth a cheap 1 year from Happ who had 3.5 WAR (4.3 on BR) and wRC+ of 120 and plays multiple positions while being a switch hitter. Fills a need and won't be too expensive to resign

 

No way. We should think long term. Vlad for Corbin Carroll solves multiple problems. It significantly improves our OF for years to come, and reduces the clown factor in the dugout thus increasing overall effectiveness of the team. Not to mention how it would improve infield turf condition at home.

[Laika]

No way. We should think long term. Vlad for Corbin Carroll solves multiple problems. It significantly improves our OF for years to come, and reduces the clown factor in the dugout thus increasing overall effectiveness of the team. Not to mention how it would improve infield turf condition at home.

 

There is less than no chance Arizona would do that trade

[Captain_Obvious]

There is less than no chance Arizona would do that trade

 

If they overvalue Vlad the way many do, you never know.

[L54]

Carroll put up half of Vlad’s WAR in just over 100 PA’s and is controlled through like 2029

 

They aren’t doing it

[Captain_Obvious]

Carroll put up half of Vlad’s WAR in just over 100 PA’s and is controlled through like 2029

 

They aren’t doing it

 

Yes, but is 2022 Vlad representative of his true talent level? I obviously would not do it either if I were the Arizona, but I see many people focusing on Vlad's 2021 version so maybe there is a chance.

[Laika]

If they overvalue Vlad the way many do, you never know.

 

Nah even if they LOVE him the years of control are way too different

[bluejaysinternNo5]

1. Use Vlad's down year as an opportunity to sign him to a team friendly deal. Channel your inner Alex Anthopoulos and get him under contract. Promise Vlad many winning seasons and championships with him at the helm of the Jays for years to come. Tell him how he'll become a legend in Toronto.

 

2. As soon as the ink is dry on his team friendly contract, ship Vlad and the homerun jacket to Arizona for Corbin Carrol and Zac Gallen.

 

3. Win the next 5 world series.

[Daniel Labude]

[Captain_Obvious]

Nah even if they LOVE him the years of control are way too different

 

As I said, I wouldn't do it if I were Arizona. LTBF would though. I am counting on incompetence.

 

A more balanced trade would be Kirk for Varsho. Lefty bat who is a very good CF with similar years of control.

Arizona gets:

- Very good defensive catcher.

- Superior contact and plate discipline.

- Younger player.

 

Toronto gets:

- One of the best defensive CFs in the game.

- Lefty power bat.

- Superior base running.

 

Edit:

Just checked baseball trade values. They have Varsho as 2X the value of Kirk. I did not expect that.

Edited October 11, 2022 by Captain_Obvious

[Solaxys]

Atkins does not have the guts or the creativity to better this team by making smart moves.

And I don't think Rogers is giving him more money after all he spent last offseason for 1 extra win and 2 losses in postseason.

 

Expect a bit more dumpster diving for relief, another tapia-esque bat (if not bringing him back or keeping JBJ), maybe re-sign Stripling or just run the 5 we have until trade deadline to see what happens.

 

All we can really hope for is Bo to clean up his defense, Vlad to get his LA and plate discipline back, Teo/Springer/Danny to stay healthy, Gurriel to find some power, Kirk to find some speed and ability to throw out runners (both these facets are going to be extremely relevant next year with the changes) and not get fatigued by the end of the year, Pearson to stay healthy and get in the BP with hurling 100, Manoah not regressing to the mean, Kikuchi/Berrios finding some sort of consistency, Pop/White to becoming as advertised, Bass not regressing like he did near the end of the year for us, Martinez understanding that "pull everything to the SS" is not a good approach and preaching a bit more patience, etc...

 

That's a lot of ifs. We aren't going to address the ifs.

Atkins said this team would be ready to compete by 2021 (in his 2018 interview) and we have been - maybe he has a plan, but I think he's hoping to get lucky and and vindicated when all the ifs happen at the same time.