Fire John Schneider

[Stangstag]

I had no problem leaving Gausman in personally. I didn't even expect him to get pulled, so when I saw Schneider walking out I was really surprised. I saw he got those two outs and looked like he settled back in. He's your ace, making over $100 million, at 94 pitches into the 6th inning, with an 8-1 lead. As well with a Game 3 looming, didn't you want to save some arms in your pen rather than use them all in Game 2? I think it made sense to roll with Gausman given the situation and a possible Game 3 to played the next day.

 

Sure, we know some fans will question any move and blame anyone. If Gausman gave up a grand slam, I would have been like damn, so be it. It's still an 8-5 game, now you can roll with the pen. I still wouldn't have had a problem with Schneider leaving him in given that situation. If this was in the 7th or 8th inning and he was well over 100 pitches, then different story, especially if it's a closer score like 4-1 or 2-1 etc. I think Schneider was overthinking when he really didn't need to at that moment.

 

Its just unfortunate that Gausman was in that jam in the first place. He seemed rusty to start that inning and I think the 30ish minutes on the bench between innings is why he wasn’t sharp. But yes he settled in and looked good against Haniger and Frazier. I don’t mind going to the pen there since he had almost given up a homer to Santana in his last at bat. Mayza wasn’t a good choice though.

 

Also sucks Espinal had that error in the first that cost Gausman about 10 extra pitches. Maybe he stays in longer with a lower pitch count there in the 6th.

 

They managed the game like they have all year. Maybe they should have managed it differently. Idk. If game 3 happened the pen would have been cooked.

[Laika]

Its just unfortunate that Gausman was in that jam in the first place. He seemed rusty to start that inning and I think the 30ish minutes on the bench between innings is why he wasn’t sharp. But yes he settled in and looked good against Haniger and Frazier. I don’t mind going to the pen there since he had almost given up a homer to Santana in his last at bat. Mayza wasn’t a good choice though.

 

Also sucks Espinal had that error in the first that cost Gausman about 10 extra pitches. Maybe he stays in longer with a lower pitch count there in the 6th.

 

They managed the game like they have all year. Maybe they should have managed it differently. Idk. If game 3 happened the pen would have been cooked.

 

Not really. Did Romano get a single 2 inning save opportunity all year? I know he had some 1+ but not sure about 2 full innings.

 

Did we ever see Merrifield removed in a corner for a defensive upgrade? Let alone, Tapia?

 

But yes the pitch count for Gausman was the same as where they tended to pull him all year.

[The Cats Ass]

Bringing in the lefty is the most confusing part. Santana hits better from the right side.

[Terminator]

Bringing in the lefty is the most confusing part. Santana hits better from the right side.

 

It will never make any sense to me. Even if he wanted to take Gausman out he could have went with a different RH reliever.

[Pendleton]

It will never make any sense to me. Even if he wanted to take Gausman out he could have went with a different RH reliever.

 

Someone mentioned Cimber as being the right guy if they intent on pulling Gausman there, and that made sense to me. Completely different look, and gives up very few HR. But hindsight and whatever.

[Laika]

I definitely see the argument for Mayza. It's not hard to see what they were thinking.

[Brownie19]

Someone mentioned Cimber as being the right guy if they intent on pulling Gausman there, and that made sense to me. Completely different look, and gives up very few HR. But hindsight and whatever.

 

Cimber is also a reverse split guy. Gets lefties out better than he does righties. That's actually ideal. Keep Santana on his shittier side and bring in a pitcher who gets lefties out well. That would have neutralized them bringing in Moore for Kelenic also. Whooooops.

[Terminator]

I definitely see the argument for Mayza. It's not hard to see what they were thinking.

 

Can you please explain.

[jaysblue]

Even if the Jays pulled out a win in Game 2, what would have Game 3 looked like?

 

I'm assuming they start Strip with Berrios backing him up. But what about the late innings? Would have Romano been available on Sunday in a save situation?

 

Would have been three days in a row of work for Mayza, Garcia and Cimber, but they had low pitch counts the previous two days. Though even still you wouldn't be able to push them that hard.

[Brownie19]

Did we ever see Merrifield removed in a corner for a defensive upgrade? Let alone, Tapia?

 

I mean - he only started 7 games in corner OF positions for the Jays....

[Brownie19]

Even if the Jays pulled out a win in Game 2, what would have Game 3 looked like?

 

I'm assuming they start Strip with Berrios backing him up. But what about the late innings? Would have Romano been available on Sunday in a save situation?

 

Would have been three days in a row of work for Mayza, Garcia and Cimber, but they had low pitch counts the previous two days. Though even still you wouldn't be able to push them that hard.

 

I can't imagine Romano would have been sharp after throwing 2 innings on Saturday. We'd have been praying to the gods that Berrios was on and took us to the finish line. Then again, Seattle would have been short handed too I think.

[Laika]

Can you please explain.

 

Two lefties up after Santana. Even though Santana is better against RHP those next two dudes are way worse.

 

So unless Santana hits a dinger in theory it's a solid plan to prevent a big inning. Even if Mayza loses Santana the next two are great matchups for him.

 

And if he gets Santana then he can start the next inning which is nice.

 

 

I don't think this is a bad way to manage in an 8-1 game if we assume that Gausman was at his limit.

 

The other options are kind of.... be super aggressive and bring Romano in. Or bring in Pop, Cimber, or Phelps who are all hard to get an XBH off of.

[jaysblue]

I can't imagine Romano would have been sharp after throwing 2 innings on Saturday. We'd have been praying to the gods that Berrios was on and took us to the finish line. Then again, Seattle would have been short handed too I think.

 

Yeah I can't imagine Romano would have been sharp after throwing 2 innings and 29 pitches as well. I think you would have needed a combination of Stripling and Berrios to take you maybe into the 7th, and throw in guys like Pop, Bass, Phelps and Richards for sure. Garcia, Cimber and Mayza likely still would have been available, though who knows how sharp they would be after being used 3 consecutive days. Or use Stripling for the first and maybe second time through the order, use some relievers in the middle and then have Berrios close it out.

 

Mariners would have been short handed as well, so definitely would have been an interesting game.

[Stangstag]

Cimber is also a reverse split guy. Gets lefties out better than he does righties. That's actually ideal. Keep Santana on his shittier side and bring in a pitcher who gets lefties out well. That would have neutralized them bringing in Moore for Kelenic also. Whooooops.

 

Richards too

[Stangstag]

I mean - he only started 7 games in corner OF positions for the Jays....

 

He also got hit in the f***ing head, a substitution makes sense

[bones10]

Two lefties up after Santana. Even though Santana is better against RHP those next two dudes are way worse.

 

So unless Santana hits a dinger in theory it's a solid plan to prevent a big inning. Even if Mayza loses Santana the next two are great matchups for him.

 

And if he gets Santana then he can start the next inning which is nice.

 

 

I don't think this is a bad way to manage in an 8-1 game if we assume that Gausman was at his limit.

 

The other options are kind of.... be super aggressive and bring Romano in. Or bring in Pop, Cimber, or Phelps who are all hard to get an XBH off of.

 

Walking Santana after the wild pitch is something I would have considered. Mariners bottom of the lineup is atrocious.

[Stangstag]

Walking Santana after the wild pitch is something I would have considered. Mariners bottom of the lineup is atrocious.

 

Yeah. Also had Dylan Moore on the bench though. Idk, Mayza was not a good choice

[Olerud363]

I definitely see the argument for Mayza. It's not hard to see what they were thinking.

 

I mentioned this already but given the 3 batter rule the computer and the nerds might have said Mayza pitches to 7, 8, 9.

 

Like it's a choice between

 

Santana, Kelenic/Pinch Hitter, Crawford

 

or

 

Kelenic/PH, Crawford, Julio

 

Since he might have to face 3 anyway, they rather Mayza face Santana than Julio. Yes there are 2 outs so 3 batter rule may not have matterred, but if it did matter Julio would have been tying run.

 

Now the question of whether to go to Mayza at all could be asked... but if you use Mayza, 7-8-9 would have been the spot to use him determined pre game. So all of this was probably Schneider working from a plan they made pregame.

[Terminator]

Two lefties up after Santana. Even though Santana is better against RHP those next two dudes are way worse.

 

So unless Santana hits a dinger in theory it's a solid plan to prevent a big inning. Even if Mayza loses Santana the next two are great matchups for him.

 

And if he gets Santana then he can start the next inning which is nice.

 

 

I don't think this is a bad way to manage in an 8-1 game if we assume that Gausman was at his limit.

 

The other options are kind of.... be super aggressive and bring Romano in. Or bring in Pop, Cimber, or Phelps who are all hard to get an XBH off of.

 

Schneider let Gausman face Frazier who is a lefty and then pulled him against Santana right after. Under your theory why not Mayza there?

 

But anyway, back to the situation at hand in Santana and two lefties being up after him. The Mariners were hellbent on pinch hitting for Kelenic with Dylan Moore who crushes lefties (they even did it with 2 outs and no one on base). And by bringing in Mayza you increase the odds of Santana getting on base by a lot. .290 OBP vs. righties compared to .380 OBP vs. lefties. Schneider thought he was going to limit a big inning by doing option 1 instead of option 2.

 

Option 1 - Mayza:

Santana (139 wRC+ vs. LHP)

Moore (137 wRC+)

Crawford (95 wRC+)

 

Option 2: Gausman/Cimber/Garcia/Any other RHP option:

Santana (89 wRC+ vs. RHP)

Kelenic (let's be generous and say he's a true talent 95 wRC+ vs RHP)

Crawford (wRC+ 106)

 

Unregressed splits alert, but just by eyeballing it it would seem like the chances for a big inning are much greater for Option 1 than Option 2.

[Laika]

Schneider let Gausman face Frazier who is a lefty and then pulled him against Santana right after. Under your theory why not Mayza there?

 

But anyway, back to the situation at hand in Santana and two lefties being up after him. The Mariners were hellbent on pinch hitting for Kelenic with Dylan Moore who crushes lefties (they even did it with 2 outs and no one on base). And by bringing in Mayza you increase the odds of Santana getting on base by a lot. .290 OBP vs. righties compared to .380 OBP vs. lefties. Schneider thought he was going to limit a big inning by doing option 1 instead of option 2.

 

Option 1 - Mayza:

Santana (139 wRC+ vs. LHP)

Moore (137 wRC+)

Crawford (95 wRC+)

 

Option 2: Gausman/Cimber/Garcia/Any other RHP option:

Santana (89 wRC+ vs. RHP)

Kelenic (let's be generous and say he's a true talent 95 wRC+ vs RHP)

Crawford (wRC+ 106)

 

Just by eyeballing it, it would seem like the chances for a big inning are much greater for Option 1 than Option 2.

 

You would have to use long career splits or regressed splits

 

if these are 2022 splits they don't mean much

 

Toronto would certainly use regressed platoon splits

[Terminator]

You would have to use long career splits or regressed splits

 

if these are 2022 splits they don't mean much

 

Toronto would certainly use regressed platoon splits

 

Yeah that's a good point and I edited my comment after I posted it. At this stage in their careers Santana, Moore and Crawford are all about true talent 100wRC+ hitters? Kelenic probably like a 90 or something. If you regressed them it'd be something like this?

 

vs LHP

107

107

90

 

vs RHP

90

95 or whatever Kelenic is vs RHP

107

[wilko]

I'm curious. If he left Gausman in - and Gausman gave up a grand slam to Santana, would most on this board support JS and simply suggest that it was Gausman who didn't execute? or would we rip him for not bringing in Garcia or Bass or another RHP in that situation?

 

You leave Gausman in. He's at 94 pitches and it's a do or die game. Unless you're replacing him with a better pitcher don't do it.

[Terminator]

So what do we think of Schneider yesterday?

 

He went to Mayza against the top of the lineup in the 6th inning. It was one of those games where everyone is getting used. And I get why he went with Mayza with the two lefties up, but man, you are really setting yourself up for trouble with Mayza vs. Goldschmidt as the third batter.

 

Swanson has reverse splits and is miles better than Mayza. He's got to be considered the top lefty in the pen for now and I would have used him against the top of the lineup.

[John_Havok]

So what do we think of Schneider yesterday?

 

He went to Mayza against the top of the lineup in the 6th inning. It was one of those games where everyone is getting used. And I get why he went with Mayza with the two lefties up, but man, you are really setting yourself up for trouble with Mayza vs. Goldschmidt as the third batter.

 

Swanson has reverse splits and is miles better than Mayza. He's got to be considered the top lefty in the pen for now and I would have used him against the top of the lineup.

 

That ones a more defensible move than Garcia being allowed to pitch to Arenado with a base empty and the backup catcher coming up. I think if they were wanting to go to Mayza though, they should have brought him in to face Edman. That way at WORST hes facing 3 lefties in a row and needing 2 outs, then you could yank him before facing Goldy even if he didnt get the 2 needed outs. To be fair to Mayza though the hits he gave up were not bad pitches.

[Grant77]

So what do we think of Schneider yesterday?

 

He went to Mayza against the top of the lineup in the 6th inning. It was one of those games where everyone is getting used. And I get why he went with Mayza with the two lefties up, but man, you are really setting yourself up for trouble with Mayza vs. Goldschmidt as the third batter.

 

Swanson has reverse splits and is miles better than Mayza. He's got to be considered the top lefty in the pen for now and I would have used him against the top of the lineup.

 

Do you really want to roll with Swanson for multiple innings on opening day? There were 2 outs, I thought it was the right move. It's not like Mayza was wild or they crushed him. Three balls in a row just kind of found a hole. It happened a lot yesterday.

[Stangstag]

So what do we think of Schneider yesterday?

 

He went to Mayza against the top of the lineup in the 6th inning. It was one of those games where everyone is getting used. And I get why he went with Mayza with the two lefties up, but man, you are really setting yourself up for trouble with Mayza vs. Goldschmidt as the third batter.

 

Swanson has reverse splits and is miles better than Mayza. He's got to be considered the top lefty in the pen for now and I would have used him against the top of the lineup.

 

John reminded me why I wanted him fired after the final game last year.

[Skinny Wolf]

Now they use AI to manage the games. The decisions have little to do with John Schneider.

[Orgfiller]

That ones a more defensible move than Garcia being allowed to pitch to Arenado with a base empty and the backup catcher coming up. I think if they were wanting to go to Mayza though, they should have brought him in to face Edman. That way at WORST hes facing 3 lefties in a row and needing 2 outs, then you could yank him before facing Goldy even if he didnt get the 2 needed outs. To be fair to Mayza though the hits he gave up were not bad pitches.

 

Edman is a switch hitter and is much better against lefties than RHP. 124 wRC+ career against them, obviously no Goldy though.

[Terminator]

Do you really want to roll with Swanson for multiple innings on opening day? There were 2 outs, I thought it was the right move. It's not like Mayza was wild or they crushed him. Three balls in a row just kind of found a hole. It happened a lot yesterday.

 

No I would save Swanson for later on. Middle of the 5th inning against the bottom of the lineup is a waste of his talent. He’s our top “lefty” imo.

 

The use of Mayza was fine I guess but I don’t think he’s very good.

[BTS]

Pitching to Arenado was absurd