Toronto Blue Jays Roster Discussion (2022)

[Jonn]

What do think Bellinger ends up getting this season? Obviously a lower number with incentives and/or an opt-out, but what number would a team even be comfortable with as a base salary?

 

8 million? 10?

 

I think he might get more than people expect because of demand. Wouldn’t shock me to see him sign a one year deal close to what his arb number was.

[Spanky99]

I think he might get more than people expect because of demand. Wouldn’t shock me to see him sign a one year deal close to what his arb number was.

 

He can f*** off into the sun, if that's what he wants.

[Orgfiller]

I think he might get more than people expect because of demand. Wouldn’t shock me to see him sign a one year deal close to what his arb number was.

 

Agreed. I think he'll end up in the $12-14M range, potentially even returning to the Dodgers. The upside he offers is high enough that even a non contender can sign him and flip him immediately at the deadline for a solid package if his first half numbers are in line with the Bellinger of old.

[Ray]

Boras has come out and said that Bellinger already has multiple multi-year offers on the table, but they're looking for a 1 year deal.

 

Seems like there's a lot of interest in him. He fits on a lot of teams, not just contenders too. It'll come down to which team offers him everyday playing time.

[max silver]

Agreed. I think he'll end up in the $12-14M range, potentially even returning to the Dodgers. The upside he offers is high enough that even a non contender can sign him and flip him immediately at the deadline for a solid package if his first half numbers are in line with the Bellinger of old.

 

That potential price just makes me want to forget about Bellinger and move onto a target with a little more certainty. If you can bring aboard Nimmo for $6-8 million more and potentially have an upside of 2-3x more WAR then you are far better off than spending that kind of money on a reclamation project.

[Brownie19]

Boras has come out and said that Bellinger already has multiple multi-year offers on the table, but they're looking for a 1 year deal.

 

Seems like there's a lot of interest in him. He fits on a lot of teams, not just contenders too. It'll come down to which team offers him everyday playing time.

 

This 100%. The team that signs him will have to guarantee him a full time role, probably in CF - no matter how awful he is at the plate. I could see him signing in Texas.

[Krylian]

Yeah, there's many ways to look at that trade from outside the box also, I get what Jays24 means, I'm still waiting for the other shoe to drop, to get a better feel on that trade process. I'm of thought this will look very good for the Jays overall. As you say, it's already looking like a good trade, but moving Teo isn't ideal in a win now season if we don't see a significant upgrades with the money saved.

 

Ya. I think the Jays will look better overall once the season starts, so as a whole I'm not concerned...but if we break down each transaction that happens throughout the course of this off-season, I don't think this Teo deal will be one that tastes as good as other ones that will be coming.

[Orgfiller]

That potential price just makes me want to forget about Bellinger and move onto a target with a little more certainty. If you can bring aboard Nimmo for $6-8 million more and potentially have an upside of 2-3x more WAR then you are far better off than spending that kind of money on a reclamation project.

 

You're not wrong, but Nimmo will certainly be more than just "$6-8 million more" given how much longer of a commitment he'll require to sign, and upside wise if anything Bellinger theoretically provides more, but Nimmo for sure offers that present certainty. It's much more difficult to answer the question of

a) 1-year reclamation project at <$15M, could be anywhere from a 1-6 WAR player, projects at ~1.5-2 wins. CF defense + good baserunning more or less guaranteed, offense can swing the whole value

5+ year commitment on guy who will be 30 at the beginning of the season, $100M+ committed, 3-5 WAR depending on health in 2023. Defense is "ok" at CF, likely will decline within a couple of years, health a question mark, baserunning exactly average, offense likely to be excellent for a couple of years.

[Jimcanuck]

Given the market, Jays far better off trading for a CF using the C surplus, and using any FA dollars they have for pitchers (of which there are plenty available).

[Spanky99]

Sign Conforto, Atkins.

[AdamGreenwood]

I'm hearing Jays get Bellinger 2/16 with opt-out.

[BallsDeep]

I'm hearing Jays get Bellinger 2/16 with opt-out.

 

Boboa is that you?

[RustyTrombone]

Boboa is that you?

 

He could be Mo Lester too

[max silver]

You're not wrong, but Nimmo will certainly be more than just "$6-8 million more" given how much longer of a commitment he'll require to sign, and upside wise if anything Bellinger theoretically provides more, but Nimmo for sure offers that present certainty. It's much more difficult to answer the question of

a) 1-year reclamation project at <$15M, could be anywhere from a 1-6 WAR player, projects at ~1.5-2 wins. CF defense + good baserunning more or less guaranteed, offense can swing the whole value

5+ year commitment on guy who will be 30 at the beginning of the season, $100M+ committed, 3-5 WAR depending on health in 2023. Defense is "ok" at CF, likely will decline within a couple of years, health a question mark, baserunning exactly average, offense likely to be excellent for a couple of years.

 

I find I just have very little confidence in Bellinger ever returning to much more than league average offensively, and even that would require a fair bit of improvement on his part. Maybe he's helped out by the upcoming shift ban a bit as he's been shifted against a ton for most of his career.

 

If the team actually had any potential impact outfielders less than 2-3 years away I'd be fine with signing stopgap outfielders in the meantime, but given where they are in their competitive cycle that spending big dollars on more reclamation projects feels like a bit of a waste.

[jaysblue]

For Teo to post a 5 WAR season, he would need to have the best season of his career, both on O and D. I doubt that happens. I suspect Teo would be more in the 2-3 WAR range again.

 

Yeah agreed. He would have to come close to his 2021 form and even perform better. I was thinking it with being a contract year, he could have a big season. But realistically, 2-3 WAR is most likely where he sits.

[BallsDeep]

Yeah agreed. He would have to come close to his 2021 form and even perform better. I was thinking it with being a contract year, he could have a big season. But realistically, 2-3 WAR is most likely where he sits.

 

I love Teo and it saddens me we let him go. But the arrow is undoubtedly pointing down.

[max silver]

Sign Conforto, Atkins.

 

I think he's one of the best fits for this roster. He has a bit of the same question mark as Bellinger in how well he bounces back after the shoulder injury though, that's just such a potentially ruinous injury for a hitter to suffer. It's too bad he can't play center field in order to at least spell Springer from time to time.

 

He checks some of the same boxes as Nimmo;

 

- gets on base

- less swing and miss than the bulk of the right handed sluggers on the roster

- left handed hitter to balance out lineup

- typically well above average hitter for most of his career

- strong potential for 4+ WAR if he returns to previous form

 

He would be a direct plug and play replacement for Teo, and likely not cost that much more given the recent injury history. Most likely he upgrades the defence in right field as well, although it remains to be seen how the shoulder injury and subsequent surgery affects his throwing arm.

[max silver]

Yeah agreed. He would have to come close to his 2021 form and even perform better. I was thinking it with being a contract year, he could have a big season. But realistically, 2-3 WAR is most likely where he sits.

 

I think Teo was largely hampered on the bases and in the field by the multitude of foot injuries in 2022. I expect a bounce-back season in the 3-4 WAR range with a little better health.

[Spanky99]

Teoscar had a real bad baserunning year, woof. The only arrow pointing down for Teo is defense. I could see him as a 3 win guy next season.

[Spanky99]

I think he's one of the best fits for this roster. He has a bit of the same question mark as Bellinger in how well he bounces back after the shoulder injury though, that's just such a potentially ruinous injury for a hitter to suffer. It's too bad he can't play center field in order to at least spell Springer from time to time.

 

He checks some of the same boxes as Nimmo;

 

- gets on base

- less swing and miss than the bulk of the right handed sluggers on the roster

- left handed hitter to balance out lineup

- typically well above average hitter for most of his career

- strong potential for 4+ WAR if he returns to previous form

 

He would be a direct plug and play replacement for Teo, and likely not cost that much more given the recent injury history. Most likely he upgrades the defence in right field as well, although it remains to be seen how the shoulder injury and subsequent surgery affects his throwing arm.

 

You don't think he can spell Springer in CF? I like Conforto for all those reasons mentioned plus being able to play CF, we also have Whit and incoming 5th OF.

[glory]

If the team actually had any potential impact outfielders less than 2-3 years away I'd be fine with signing stopgap outfielders in the meantime, but given where they are in their competitive cycle that spending big dollars on more reclamation projects feels like a bit of a waste.

 

If the Jays were to get Bellinger, then I would imagine they'd try to get a long term OF option as well. Whether that's one of Arizona's OF's, or St. Louis, or somewhere else. I can't see Atkins going into 2024 with only one OF under contract especially since the minor league system isn't close to developing one. I would agree that if Bellinger was it in terms of position player acquisitions, then it would be a huge mistake.

[jaysblue]

I'm okay with either one of Bellinger or Conforto at 1 year around $15 million. Conforto would be a safer bet from an offensive standpoint, though Belly would offer more upside if he comes close to his MVP season. If they could sign both, even better haha.

[max silver]

You don't think he can spell Springer in CF? I like Conforto for all those reasons mentioned plus being able to play CF, we also have Whit and incoming 5th OF.

 

I just don't think Conforto has the requisite footspeed to man center field other than in a pinch. Besides he hasn't played any center field since 2019, and even back then he was pretty poor out there.

[Spanky99]

I just don't think Conforto has the requisite footspeed to man center field other than in a pinch. Besides he hasn't played any center field since 2019, and even back then he was pretty poor out there.

 

Meh... an injury to any starting CF you're f***ed, really. I think he can be a backup comfortably, doesn't have to be great.

[Jonn]

The problem with Conforto is he can’t play CF. Well atleast he shouldn’t. And we need someone who can play CF. That should be the target. He’s not the worst case scenario with the bat being left-handed with some power and on base. But he’s not a very good Outfielder. And we already have LF only player on the roster with Gurriel.

[ValiantJaysFan]

Twitter is saying Bellinger to the Jays, 2 years $16 million with a possible player opt out in year 2.

[Laika]

Twitter is saying Bellinger to the Jays, 2 years $16 million with a possible player opt out in year 2.

 

"twitter" meaning who?

[Spanky99]

"twitter" meaning who?

 

Yup, this is key. This troglodyte again...

 

[Krylian]

Mo speaks...

 

[Laika]

MoLester lmao