Toronto Blue Jays Roster Discussion (2022)

[wamco]

What's that all about?

 

Sorry. First number is 2022 WAR (bbref), 2nd Is mlb trade values value.

 

I’m asking if the inning pitched (leverage/saves) effects war as Abreu seems closer to Romano in value than stated via war

[Spanky99]

Hang on... are you suggesting that the inning a reliever pitches in will somehow change their fWAR?

 

Leverage is calculated in fWAR, no? I don't get what those numbers mean and where it was sourced from, though. I don't get exactly what he means.

[Spanky99]

Sorry. First number is 2022 WAR (bbref), 2nd Is mlb trade values value.

 

I’m asking if the inning pitched (leverage/saves) effects war as Abreu seems closer to Romano in value than stated via war

 

That's not how it works, they include years of control, contract, performance, etc...

[wamco]

Why would the Angels want Springer? You think they want to move Ohtani and still try to contend? I can't imagine that's the case, but the Angels are kind of nuts, so maybe?

 

I mean if ohtani leaves as a free agent next year, do you see them going into a rebuild? If so, trout gotta be on the move, no?

[wamco]

That's not how it works, they include years of control, contract, performance, etc...

 

Oh I get that for mlbtv

[The Cats Ass]

2018: 2.33 FIP, 9.88 K/9, 1.8 WAR

 

2019: 2.85 FIP, 11.74 K/9, 2.1 WAR

 

2021: 2.13 FIP, 13.17 K/9, 1.5 WAR

 

2022: 3.32 FIP, 11.75 K/9, 1.0 WAR

 

He's been one of the best relievers in baseball since 2018.

 

I didn't know a reliever with a 4.76 ERA was one of the best. But hey, as long as he can get those K's and Saves right.

[Laika]

Leverage is calculated in fWAR, no? I don't get what those numbers mean and where it was sourced from, though. I don't get exactly what he means.

 

It's BR WAR

[wamco]

But even with that , here are the 2 players numbers last year (which of course a longer track record should be worth more)

 

Romano - age 29 free agent after 2026.

2.11 era , 2.82 FIP, 1.01 WHIP, 10.3k/9

4.4m salary

 

Abreu- age 25 free agent after 2027.

1.94 era, 2.12 FIP, 1.17 WHIP 13.1 k/9

Pre-arb salary

[Laika]

How much better is Romano than abreu though

 

Romano 2.9 last year (mlbtv 30)

Abreu 1.3 last year. (Mlbtv 11)

 

That doesn’t seem like reality. Getting the save seems to boost this entirely too far. I’d think if you have Romano pitch the 8th and Abreu the 9th, you’d see the WAR flip-flop.

 

I don’t think enough to get Jansen still even if you boost abreu up. I think a better pitcher than Urquidy should be included. Plus I can’t stand his wind up.

 

Possible that Romano is no better by talent.

 

They were pretty close in 2022. Romano did it against tougher hitters but Abreu had a better FIP and K-BB numbers.

 

Romano has a longer track record. So you'd have a bit more confidence in Romano's projections. Abreu has bigger error bars.

 

One more year of control for Abreu. And cheaper arb projections for Abreu... there are cheap teams that would literally swap Romano for Abreu 1 for 1, I think.

[Spanky99]

It's BR WAR

 

Yeah, he mentioned it, I get it. The mlbtv part threw me for a loop.

[Spanky99]

Possible that Romano is no better by talent.

 

They were pretty close in 2022. Romano did it against tougher hitters but Abreu had a better FIP and K-BB numbers.

 

Romano has a longer track record. So you'd have a bit more confidence in Romano's projections. Abreu has bigger error bars.

 

One more year of control for Abreu. And cheaper arb projections for Abreu... there are cheap teams that would literally swap Romano for Abreu 1 for 1, I think.

 

That trade's a lot closer than I originally thought after looking at Eno Sarris' chart, I think it's fair value, Jays might have to kick in something else that isn't significant.

[jaysblue]

I didn't know a reliever with a 4.76 ERA was one of the best. But hey, as long as he can get those K's and Saves right.

 

You should know very well that ERA isn't the only indicator you judge a pitcher on.

 

He had a down year in 2022 yes, though still put up solid numbers across the board. His K numbers and FIP numbers are still very elite. He would have been the Jays second most valuable reliever this season behind Romano.

 

If he puts up similar numbers to his 2021 season which I think is a reasonable expectation, he's a huge upgrade to this bullpen overall.

[jaysblue]

Possible that Romano is no better by talent.

 

They were pretty close in 2022. Romano did it against tougher hitters but Abreu had a better FIP and K-BB numbers.

 

Romano has a longer track record. So you'd have a bit more confidence in Romano's projections. Abreu has bigger error bars.

 

One more year of control for Abreu. And cheaper arb projections for Abreu... there are cheap teams that would literally swap Romano for Abreu 1 for 1, I think.

 

Yeah both Romano and Abreu were very close in terms of value they provided in 2022.

 

Romano has more experience in the later innings and closing, whereas Abreu has mainly been used in the 6th/7th inning this past season. Though Abreu's FIP and K-BBs are elite.

 

Abreu has cheaper arb projections since he hasn't racked up that many saves or holds. Romano and Abreu overall are pretty even like you said in terms of value.

 

Adding Abreu to this bullpen would drastically improve it. Him and Romano in the late innings would be an awesome duo.

[wamco]

Worth noting Astros have Diaz in minors as a catcher. Ripped up aa-aaa to a 898 ops last season. May not have that much interest in Jansen unless using Diaz as 1b as well

[L54]

I didn't know a reliever with a 4.76 ERA was one of the best. But hey, as long as he can get those K's and Saves right.

 

Is 14th in WAR since 2018 good?

 

Oh no bad ERA stay away!

[Spanky99]

Yeah both Romano and Abreu were very close in terms of value they provided in 2022.

 

Romano has more experience in the later innings and closing, whereas Abreu has mainly been used in the 6th/7th inning this past season. Though Abreu's FIP and K-BBs are elite.

 

Abreu has cheaper arb projections since he hasn't racked up that many saves or holds. Romano and Abreu overall are pretty even like you said in terms of value.

 

Adding Abreu to this bullpen would drastically improve it. Him and Romano in the late innings would be an awesome duo.

 

Dude, you just repeated like literally everything he said in that post? lol... just say you agree.

[Carlos Danger]

I don't get that trade at all, other than Drey Jameson who looks to have good stuff.

 

Mantiply probably just had a career year and has traditionally not been a big whiff guy. Isn't he a soft tosser?

 

Stone Garrett peaked in the upper minors at 25 and 26 with 112 and 116 wRC+ lines. He looks like a weak side platoon player in an outfield corner.

 

On my cell and don’t have my personal laptop in the office today.

 

However, a lefty RP controlled through 2026 is a good get for us plus the other two guys I mentioned.

 

n the 2022 season Mantiply, who is controllable through the 2026 season, improved his 2021 numbers. Pitching to a low 2.85 ERA in 60 innings with a solid 25.1% strikeout rate, a sparkling 2.5% walk rate, and missing hitters’ barrels (99th percentile for Chase Rate, 94th percentile for Barrel %), the 31-year-old earned a trip to the All-Star game in his second full season. Left-handed hitters have found limited success against Mantiply, slashing a poor .247/.297/.282 against him, while righties are hitting a slightly better .260/.272/.404. The unsightly .252 combined average may be cause for concern, however, Mantiply is tied for the 27th lowest Hard Hit%, among relievers to pitch 50+ innings, and is in the 89th percentile for Average Exit Velocity.

[wamco]

Eh, he seems like a smart man and a distinguished gentleman to me.

 

So In conclusion, now I feel I have to have Abreu on the team and will give up whatever it takes to get him!

 

I think I would take that Urquidy- Abreu deal. Again, he would need to agree to ditch the wind up and I think he had a bad mustache as well. That’s gotta go.

Make that trade, sign rodon and let’s f***ing go

[Laika]

On my cell and don’t have my personal laptop in the office today.

 

However, a lefty RP controlled through 2026 is a good get for us plus the other two guys I mentioned.

 

n the 2022 season Mantiply, who is controllable through the 2026 season, improved his 2021 numbers. Pitching to a low 2.85 ERA in 60 innings with a solid 25.1% strikeout rate, a sparkling 2.5% walk rate, and missing hitters’ barrels (99th percentile for Chase Rate, 94th percentile for Barrel %), the 31-year-old earned a trip to the All-Star game in his second full season. Left-handed hitters have found limited success against Mantiply, slashing a poor .247/.297/.282 against him, while righties are hitting a slightly better .260/.272/.404. The unsightly .252 combined average may be cause for concern, however, Mantiply is tied for the 27th lowest Hard Hit%, among relievers to pitch 50+ innings, and is in the 89th percentile for Average Exit Velocity.

 

Right he was good in 2022 but you would be buying SKY HIGH on Mantiply who seems to be a reliever without amazing stuff.

[Carlos Danger]

So you want to trade Kirk and Martinez for a pitching prospect who's projected for the bullpen, a AAAA pinch hitter, and a 32 year old middle reliever.

 

Drey Jameson is not projected for the pen. He is in the top 60s SP on Pitchers list and if you do any solid research and based on his MLB time so far is a stud.

 

Young controllable SPs are very expensive in general. However, Drey is where Mahle was at this point or Trevor Rogers when they came up. If you wait until a Mahle becomes a Mahle, you have to pay what the Twins did to get him and it was very expensive.

 

Mantiply is a lefty that hitters have a hard time barreling up against.

 

Garrett made some significant changes and has taken off recently.

 

I am all about buying before the peak. If you wait until Jameson and Garrett become really good, the cost is exorbitant.

 

Mantiply fits a need. The three of them make our team much better. Trade for Drey and sign Bassit and you have a pretty damn good starting 5.

 

Again, young good controllable SPs are expensive and it would take a Kirk in the deal.

[Carlos Danger]

Right he was good in 2022 but you would be buying SKY HIGH on Mantiply who seems to be a reliever without amazing stuff.

 

If Mantiply is part of a packaged return, then I think that mitigates the overpaying. I agree and you are right, I would not target soley Mantiply alone and pay a high sellers price at the moment. However, as part of a three player deal or some thing akin to that, I think the value is there.

[wamco]

Worth noting Astros have Diaz in minors as a catcher. Ripped up aa-aaa to a 898 ops last season. May not have that much interest in Jansen unless using Diaz as 1b as well

 

Also their 7th ranked prospect reached mlb last year as well after a 790 ops aaa mark.

 

That’s their 4 and 7 ranked prospects per mlb.com

[Captain_Obvious]

If you can't get Jansen's true value back in a trade in the off-season, then just play him full-time for the first half of 2023 and trade him after. I am confident his value will skyrocket when he is in the top 10 in WAR in MLB.

[Krylian]

If you can't get Jansen's true value back in a trade in the off-season, then just play him full-time for the first half of 2023 and trade him after. I am confident his value will skyrocket when he is in the top 10 in WAR in MLB.

 

You're assuming he can stay healthy

[wamco]

Are the 3 year ZIP projections on fangraphs up to date or are they from before the season?

[Captain_Obvious]

You're assuming he can stay healthy

 

Yes. However, his last injury was a HBP that broke his hand I believe. That is probably bad luck.

[Terminator]

I've been trying to get into direct contact with Atkins to tell him my Astros trade but I've heard through the grapevine that he is no longer pouring over my messages on BJMB because of my criticism of John Schneider. If anyone has his email address or phone number please PM me ASAP. But after we complete my Astros trade, move Kikuchi to the bullpen and sign Chris Bassitt here is the pitching staff of the 2023 AL East Champs.

 

1. Gausman

2. Manoah

3. Bassitt

4. Berrios

5. Urquidy

 

CL Romano

SU Abreu

MR Bass

MR Garcia

MR Cimber

MR Mayza

MR Kikuchi

LR White

[wamco]

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/

 

 

Free agent predicted values

[Stangstag]

I've been trying to get into direct contact with Atkins to tell him my Astros trade but I've heard through the grapevine that he is no longer pouring over my messages on BJMB because of my criticism of John Schneider. If anyone has his email address or phone number please PM me ASAP. But after we complete my Astros trade, move Kikuchi to the bullpen and sign Chris Bassitt here is the pitching staff of the 2023 AL East Champs.

 

1. Gausman

2. Manoah

3. Bassitt

4. Berrios

5. Urquidy

 

CL Romano

SU Abreu

MR Bass

MR Garcia

MR Cimber

MR Mayza

MR Kikuchi

LR White

 

I like it

[wamco]

What about their 2 catching prospects I mentioned? Both got mlb ab last year