General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Laika]

Ya ideally Bo hits third high power low OBP guy

 

But at least they moved Vlad up. No reason for him to not hit top 2 from this point forward.

 

And Springer 4th is perfect because he's either coming up with a man on in the 1st inning, great for his HR swing, or he's leading off the 2nd, which he is a role he is used to.

[G-Snarls]

Welcome back Janny Dansen!

 

Oh heck yeah!!!

[Solaxys]

 

Vlad should follow suit and rest that wrist

 

[Stangstag]

Yeah this is an excellent lineup. The right players are playing, and moving Bichette down in the order was badly needed. Schneider already looking better than Buntoyo.

 

Schneider to Vlad:

 

"You're going to hit 2nd and you're gonna f***ing like it"

[gruber92]

Vladdy is fine hitting second now because of the source it comes from now. Chuckles wasn't respected enough to get Vladdy to be ok with it.

[Spanky99]

Vladdy is fine hitting second now because of the source it comes from now. Chuckles wasn't respected enough to get Vladdy to be ok with it.

 

That seems to be the story here, right? Vlad told Charlie he was comfortable at third and it was cemented in. I believe I'm going to really like Schneider's style, aggressive when possible.

[Spanky99]

It's pretty wild that the entire AL East is above .500 and only 3 other teams in the League are??? Jesus...

[Omar]

Vladdy is fine hitting second now because of the source it comes from now. Chuckles wasn't respected enough to get Vladdy to be ok with it.

 

That seems to be the story here, right? Vlad told Charlie he was comfortable at third and it was cemented in. I believe I'm going to really like Schneider's style, aggressive when possible.

 

It's like with kids, they know what limits they can go to and with whom. Vlad knew Charlie would back down so he pushed back. Times are a changing.

[Spanky99]

In terms of hitter talent The Book basically says you want them to hit

 

1st = best hitter

2nd = second best hitter

3rd = fourth best hitter

4th = third best hitter

5th = fifth best hitter

 

Toronto has their

 

3rd best hitter leading off

best hitter hitting 2nd

2nd best hitter hitting 3rd

4th best hitter hitting 4th

5th best hitter hitting 5th

 

 

So it's not exactly optimal, it's just a change.

 

The reason 3rd in the order is not for one of the top 3 hitters is because they come up with bases empty and 2 outs a lot.

 

3rd would actually be the spot for Bo IMO because he's not really a high OBP guy.

 

I think I'd go:

 

Vlad

Kirk

Bo

Springer

Teoscar

Gurriel

Chapman

Jansen

Biggio

 

I don't understand why more teams don't roll with Tango's optimal line-up algorithm? Puzzling.

[Laika]

I don't understand why more teams don't roll with Tango's optimal line-up algorithm? Puzzling.

 

The effect is so tiny

 

I think it's basically just an old school bone that the front offices throw the managers/players to make them comfortable

[Stangstag]

I don't understand why more teams don't roll with Tango's optimal line-up algorithm? Puzzling.

 

Old-school mentality… but also doesn’t it make like a 1 win difference over the course of a full season? Like fully optimized vs completely unoptimized/worst. I thought I had read that. Its kinda moot at the end of the day

[Spanky99]

Old-school mentality… but also doesn’t it make like a 1 win difference over the course of a full season? Like fully optimized vs completely unoptimized/worst. I thought I had read that. Its kinda moot at the end of the day

 

A win's a win, bro.¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Stangstag]

A win's a win, bro.¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Right but nobody is hitting Mike Trout 9th all season, so it wouldn’t even amount to an extra win.

[Stangstag]

Most important things are # of plate appearances and player comfortably/mental aspect

[John_Havok]

Most important things are # of plate appearances and player comfortably/mental aspect

 

And... uh, performance.

[Stangstag]

And... uh, performance.

 

Yes that too

[keggy]

I know this has been said already but the Jays really need to take at least 3 out of 4 against the Royals with at least 1 blowout to rest the leverage relievers and get the position players off their feet.

 

Anything less than that against a spring training split squad is embarassing.

[Jonn]

I know this has been said already but the Jays really need to take at least 3 out of 4 against the Royals with at least 1 blowout to rest the leverage relievers and get the position players off their feet.

 

Anything less than that against a spring training split squad is embarassing.

 

They are missing 10 of their regular players including arguably their 2 best players. Anything less than a sweep would be an embarrassment.

[Stangstag]

They are missing 10 of their regular players including arguably their 2 best players. Anything less than a sweep would be an embarrassment.

 

Looking good so far…

 

If they don’t take the next 3 they should really be ashamed. Maybe the all star break will give the guys some time to clear their heads

[Dagagad]

Looking at vlads fangraph page, man he is swinging outside the zone WAY more. 33.3% of the time this year up from 28.3% last year. That’s higher than every year of his pro career including his rookie year.

 

I’m not sure how to find data of when he is swinging inside the zone but I feel like he is also swinging at more borderline stuff early as well.

 

This isn’t really a problem team wide. We are swinging less outside than last year. Some guys have went up and some down but the only other person I can see with such a dramatic increase is Tapia (which I found surprising).

 

With vlad at least, this to me is his major problem way beyond launch angle. He isn’t going to be the elite hitter he was last year consistently unless he swings inside the zone, and even in a smaller area than that early.

[Omar]

Jays hitting coach Guillermo Martinez should have been sent packing with Charlie. Vlad, Teo, Bo seem to be guessing up there half the time. Last night was embarrassing.

 

Bring back Brook Jacoby.

[Dagagad]

If we are firing coaches for player performance, it would make more sense to can Pete Walker.

[L54]

Looking at vlads fangraph page, man he is swinging outside the zone WAY more. 33.3% of the time this year up from 28.3% last year. That’s higher than every year of his pro career including his rookie year.

 

I’m not sure how to find data of when he is swinging inside the zone but I feel like he is also swinging at more borderline stuff early as well.

 

This isn’t really a problem team wide. We are swinging less outside than last year. Some guys have went up and some down but the only other person I can see with such a dramatic increase is Tapia (which I found surprising).

 

With vlad at least, this to me is his major problem way beyond launch angle. He isn’t going to be the elite hitter he was last year consistently unless he swings inside the zone, and even in a smaller area than that early.

 

Z-Swing% is swinging inside the zone

[Dagagad]

Z-Swing% is swinging inside the zone

 

Yea, I know. I’m not sure what you mean.

[Olerud363]

Looking at vlads fangraph page, man he is swinging outside the zone WAY more. 33.3% of the time this year up from 28.3% last year. ThatÂ’s higher than every year of his pro career including his rookie year.

 

IÂ’m not sure how to find data of when he is swinging inside the zone but I feel like he is also swinging at more borderline stuff early as well.

 

This isnÂ’t really a problem team wide. We are swinging less outside than last year. Some guys have went up and some down but the only other person I can see with such a dramatic increase is Tapia (which I found surprising).

 

With vlad at least, this to me is his major problem way beyond launch angle. He isnÂ’t going to be the elite hitter he was last year consistently unless he swings inside the zone, and even in a smaller area than that early.

 

You mentioned a while ago that if Bo and Vlad are 3 WAR players instead of 5 this winning cycle is screwed anyway... I don't totally agree with that because those 4 'wins' could be made up somewhere else.

 

However Vlad and Bo are 3 WAR players instead of 5 mainly because their swing decisions are bad. What can be done about this? I have no clue. I assume they aren't just swinging at bad pitches for shits and giggles. I guess the opposition has crunched the pitch data and figured out where their weakness is, they must know what is happening, but just can't recognize the difference between a fastball, and breaking stuff off the plate.

 

This to me is one of the reasons why the season is such a disappointment. Vlad and Bo were supposed to have elite hit tools. Vlad was suppose to be patient with a low k rate and Bo was supposed to be able to get his bat on anything.

 

Together they are on pace to strike out about 300 times. Just 1 year ago I thought as they matured they both might have elite contact rates and strike out half that much.

[RustyTrombone]

Yea, I know. I’m not sure what you mean.

 

Easy way to get an idea of what you are looking for is here:https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/swing-take?year=2022&team=&group=Batter&type=All&sub_type=null&min=q

 

Comparing Vlad from last year to this is really pathetic.

[RustyTrombone]

Yea, I know. I’m not sure what you mean.

 

Easy way to get an idea of what you are looking for is here:https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/swing-take?year=2022&team=&group=Batter&type=All&sub_type=null&min=q

 

Comparing Vlad from last year to this is really pathetic.

[Olerud363]

Vlad is the 74th best player in baseball since he debuted. 300M??

 

That's the thing. Is it really a team built around 2 super stars any more? If Bo and Vlad are not great players how does it change things going forward?

 

Say they are really 3 WAR players then

 

1. The win total from 2022 to 2025 is about 5 wins a year less than we thought

2. However the payroll needed for them may be a little less then we thought.

3. If they leave after 2025 they are easier to replace then we thought.

 

Does this change how you operate the team?

[Dagagad]

You mentioned a while ago that if Bo and Vlad are 3 WAR players instead of 5 this winning cycle is screwed anyway... I don't totally agree with that because those 4 'wins' could be made up somewhere else.

 

However Vlad and Bo are 3 WAR players instead of 5 mainly because their swing decisions are bad. What can be done about this? I have no clue. I assume they aren't just swinging at bad pitches for shits and giggles. I guess the opposition has crunched the pitch data and figured out where their weakness is, they must know what is happening, but just can't recognize the difference between a fastball, and breaking stuff off the plate.

 

This to me is one of the reasons why the season is such a disappointment. Vlad and Bo were supposed to have elite hit tools. Vlad was suppose to be patient with a low k rate and Bo was supposed to be able to get his bat on anything.

 

Together they are on pace to strike out about 300 times. Just 1 year ago I thought as they matured they both might have elite contact rates and strike out half that much.

 

I think this is what Bo is supposed to be but he’s under performing. He started from such a high o swing bar that it’s probably going to be a while before it comes down noticeably if at all.

 

Vlad is worrying. He’s not his dad and can’t be elite swinging at anything.

[Dagagad]

Easy way to get an idea of what you are looking for is here:https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/swing-take?year=2022&team=&group=Batter&type=All&sub_type=null&min=q

 

Comparing Vlad from last year to this is really pathetic.

 

Ah, thanks. That’s what I was looking for.