General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Stangstag]

If we can develop our own pitching either ones we drafted/signed as int FA or ones we traded for from other guys systems over the next couple of years, then the window could continue. If we don’t it won’t. Cheap pitching is what extends window.

 

The Tampa way. Also gotta know when to trade guys at their peak value. Getting nothing for guys like Donaldson, Stroman and Giles extended the bad years longer than necessary.

[Dagagad]

The Tampa way. Also gotta know when to trade guys at their peak value. Getting nothing for guys like Donaldson, Stroman and Giles extended the bad years longer than necessary.

 

It’s also the Houston, NYY and LAD way. I mean, they aren’t paying peanuts but most of their pitching is underpaid.

 

I think it would be very smart to trade guys like Jansen and Teo and maybe Lourdes early and get guys we like back with control. That’s also important but not as important at pitching dev.

[Solaxys]

The majority of the coaching nucleus needs to be changed tbh, but that's a sentiment not everyone shares.

Too many baserunning mistakes, too many defensive misplays (especially from the OF), too many non-competitive ABs, just things that add up to losses.

This happened to Yankees last year and they basically fired their hitting, assistant hitting, and 3B coaches.

[Orgfiller]

The Tampa way. Also gotta know when to trade guys at their peak value. Getting nothing for guys like Donaldson, Stroman and Giles extended the bad years longer than necessary.

 

Um, half of the Stroman trade netted us Jose Berrios. Anthony Kay sucks but at the time of the trade he was also like a 45 FV, just off the top 100 list kind of prospect. Not exactly nothing.

 

JA Happ would've been a better example of someone we didn't get anything back of value for, although if we look at someone like Brandon Drury and how he's doing nowadays you can sort of see where the process in the valuations came from.

[Benito]

Tampa way is to be at the bottom of attendance year after year, with no media to care. Easy to trade away guys at their peak when you don't have a fanbase or media to answer to.

[Dagagad]

Tampa way is to be at the bottom of attendance year after year, with no media to care. Easy to trade away guys at their peak when you don't have a fanbase or media to answer to.

 

The media and fans won’t care as long as you win ultimately.

[Benito]

How many teams can trade away guys at their peak coming off 90 win seasons? Tampa are able to do things other franchises just don't have the luxury of doing, because they actually have fanbases they need to try and maintain, and owners that stress that. That's business. Even with 100 win season, Tampa was last in attendance in the AL. If you don't think that matters in decision making, then we can agree to disagree.

[Dagagad]

How many teams can trade away guys at their peak coming off 90 win seasons? Tampa are able to do things other franchises just don't have the luxury of doing, because they actually have fanbases they need to try and maintain, and owners that stress that. That's business. Even with 100 win season, Tampa was last in attendance in the AL. If you don't think that matters in decision making, then we can agree to disagree.

 

I agree that Tampa have an underrated advantage in that they have the freedom to always make the smart move.

 

What I’m saying is that if you are willing to trade players at their peak and that ended up getting you more winning seasons and more playoff appearances, that it would in the end not hurt your attendance at all.

 

If you did that and still lost, you are gonzo though. Which is why gms of rich teams don’t do it imo. It’s easier to keep your job if you work within the framework of what’s acceptable.

[Benito]

It's not just FOs worried about losing their jobs. You also need owners that support that strategy. Most successful and rich franchises don't, because from a business perspective, it's not always the smart move to building the brand. And ultimately, that's what sports franchises are. Look where franchises that trade off assets at their peak the most are in terms of value, Tampa, Oakland, Florida. They are all at or near the bottom.

[Dagagad]

It's not just FOs worried about losing their jobs. You also need owners that support that strategy. Most successful and rich franchises don't, because from a business perspective, it's not always the smart move to building the brand. And ultimately, that's what sports franchises are. Look where franchises that trade off assets at their peak the most are in terms of value, Tampa, Oakland, Florida. They are all at or near the bottom.

 

You are mixing up the causation there.

 

Oakland and Tampa have to have innovative strategies because their owners are cheap.

 

I’d rather win baseball games than improve the brand I guess, but that’s neither here nor there.

 

I don’t understand why running a strategy that leads to losing seasons with low attendances is good for the brand but I’m not a marketer.

[Benito]

No. I said you need owners who support that strategy, and Oakland and Tampa clearly do (because they are cheap), where as others don't. I didn't say it wasn't smart from a baseball perspective, nor did I say I preferred the brand over winning baseball games.

 

Owners and fans have different priorities. Business decisions vs baseball decisions.

 

And winning hasn't helped Tampa's attendance one bit.

[Dagagad]

No. I said you need owners who support that strategy, and Oakland and Tampa clearly do (because they are cheap), where as others don't. I didn't say it wasn't smart from a baseball perspective, nor did I say I preferred the brand over winning baseball games.

 

Owners and fans have different priorities. Business decisions vs baseball decisions.

 

And winning hasn't helped Tampa's attendance one bit.

 

Losing doesn’t help ours either.

 

I guess it’s better to have owners that are so cheap they don’t care what you do than rich ones that care too much. Ironic.

[Benito]

Of course losing doesn't help! Lol.

 

I'm only stating Tampa can operate in ways other franchises can't due to owner expectations. You are the one reducing the argument to personal strategic preferences. I haven't made any statement on that.

[Dagagad]

Of course losing doesn't help! Lol.

 

I'm only stating Tampa can operate in ways other franchises can't due to owner expectations. You are the one reducing the argument to personal strategic preferences. I haven't made any statement on that.

 

What I’m saying is that it is illogical.

 

A winning brand is a winning brand. If the jays acted like the rays sometimes and that helped them win more then it would help the brand.

 

I don’t think it’s a brand thing or ownership pressure. I think that it’s just super risky from a job safety pov for the front office.

 

It wouldn’t hurt the jays brand if they traded Teo and Jansen for a little bit of help now and a lot of help later at the deadline. No one would care as long as we win. But if we lost, people would want the front office gone.

[BigCecil]

The first contention window will end in 2026 (this can continue of course but will be with a pretty different roster)

 

While Gausman & Springer are both signed through 2026 (34 & 37 ages at that time respectively), Vlad, Biggio and Bo will be free-agents at the end of 2025.

Berrios' contract also specifically lets him opt out after 2026 season.

2024 is the checkpoint to sort of redefine any holes we have in the roster and make the push.

With Ryu's salary coming off the books, and Chapman, Gurriel & Teo all becoming free agents during this year, - ~50M will be off the salary books.

2025 is when Kikuchi drops out and assuming everything's well with Tiedemann, he takes over.

 

Definitely don't think we re-sign both Bo and Vlad - doubt we'll have the payroll for that.

One we can afford because of Springer's contract falling off in 2 years (so they just back-end the contract).

Vlad will command ~25M/yr I think (unless we give him a contract early like they did with Franco), and imo the better of the two to re-sign.

 

I think we do trade Teo or Gurriel at some point - maybe this offseason, alongside Jansen

We need a spot to slot in a LHB that isn't DH because of how DH is being used by this team

They would both cost the same ~12.5M/yr (maybe a bit more for Teo)

 

But man, we pay so much for starting pitching.

This year: 21M for Gausman, 20M for Ryu, 10.7M for Berrios, 16M for Kikuchi; so basically ~67.7M in starting pitching.

Basically 39.3% of our payroll going towards 14% of our WAR. Crazy.

Hopefully we don't dish out another 20M AAV for a pitcher once Ryu's contract falls off.

 

Comparatively:

NYM --> 35% for 24% WAR (DeGrom eating this up)

NYY --> 24% for 30% WAR

Astros --> 22% for 26% WAR

 

Yep. We do pay so much for SP. You can write a million glass half full or empty scenarios for this situation over next 3/4 years.

 

Money comes off the books yes, but you have to fill the spots with plus assets and our minor's bats don't exactly look too promising, sans Moreno.

 

And if we do sign Vlad and or Bo and or Teo the delta gets tacked on to the payroll.

 

If we don't sign Bo and Chappy we need a SS and 3B. 7/8 ish WAR there.

 

Its a fairly high probability Springer is going to decline over next 2-3 years.

 

Anyway...its going to be interesting and I'd rather capitalize on what we have now in 22 and 23.

[Benito]

Owner pressure and expectations absolutely impact and provide guidance to FOs mandate and method of operation. Front offices do not all have the same level of autonomy.

[gruber92]

Bullpen construction is just f***ing horrid Ross. Stop with the Banda and Romo s***, we have better than that in the system. I don't f***ing get it.

[Jonn]

Borucki doing well with Seattle lmao

 

10 hits allowed in 8.2 IP. Less than a strikeout per inning. I think will live.

[Carlos Danger]

Why is Connor banned?

[L54]

#freeconnorp

[jaysblue]

http://www.freeconnor.com

[Daniel Labude]

Why is Connor banned?

 

Made some commemt about the Marlins GM signing Avi, but made it out of bounds

[Solaxys]

Good news: Every team except Yankees have frustrating games/stretches just like ours. That's baseball. Every other contending team has 40 some wins to 30 some losses, just like us (Astros/Mets/Dodgers slightly better). This isn't specific to us. I think we got super led on by Vegas-contender Odds/Projections and put up some serious expectations which aren't being met, so every loss feels a crushing disappointment. Barring a monumental collapse, we still have a very straight and simple road to playoffs.

 

Bad news: As each day does by, we are seemingly looking like just the same as last year (90 win ball club). We are being kept afloat by our n+1 wins from early in the season, as we have been playing .500 ball for the last 60 or so games. Don't think we hold a competitive edge to the big 4. We might get lucky and pull a Braves or Nationals but if that's what we are banking on, no need to burn the farm for massive upgrades - just stopgaps.

[Laika]

Why is Connor banned?

 

Mild sexism and racism about Kim Ng.

24 hours timeout.

[Solaxys]

There's big pieces and all but DBacks have been quiet and they have two of the best relievers this year.

 

Joe Mantiply - 1.13 ERA (1.72 xERA), 1.74 WHIP (2.26 xFIP); crafty sinker/slider pitcher.

He has some erratic past but over the last two years in Arizona, he has been excellent and this year - straight up elite

Lefty.

He's still pre-arb, control through 2026 (fits our window).

Arizona could use 2B/3B prospects - decent fit.

[NY_Mountie]

They're exactly at the halfway point of their season. It was pointed out by Shulman that this year's team is pacing ahead of last year's at the same point.

 

Just need to go on a winning streak to solidify playoff positioning. Having the extra wild card helps and the AL sucks outside of the East.

 

I still don't have confidence in a deep October run though.

[RustyTrombone]

Would it be outrageous to say last years team was better lol?

[BigCecil]

Would it be outrageous to say last years team was better lol?

 

In some ways we benefitted from playing in ML parks. Semien and Vlad et al power numbers may have gotten a boost.

 

Ray won CY, Semien was a 7 WAR player, Vlad was elite, Bo/Teo were better and Matz was an excellent 5th SP. All were relatively cheap.

[Olerud363]

Would it be outrageous to say last years team was better lol?

 

They were playing better especially near the end of the season but I think the projected wins would be about the same. One big difference is Ryu is gone. So no SP depth.

 

If everybody plays at their career norms things will be fine. Like if you tell me Berrios and Richards will be at career norms, Garcia and the Rotation will be healthy and the position players will be relatively healthy and play at career norms then second half will be fine, they will likely end up at same wins as last year, but playoffs because of the extra spot.

 

The worrisome things for me are

 

a) something is wrong with Berrios and he won't perform at career norms

Could have another starting pitcher go down, and the depth is garbage.

c) Bullpen arms like Richards and Garcia will be injured and/or implode and no depth there.

 

So there is a disaster scenario where 6.00 ERA starters and relievers tank the season and the position players aren't good enough to score enough runs to consistently win 9-5 games on the nights (like last) where pitching is bad but not a complete implosion.

[RustyTrombone]

In some ways we benefitted from playing in ML parks. Semien and Vlad et al power numbers may have gotten a boost.

 

Ray won CY, Semien was a 7 WAR player, Vlad was elite, Bo/Teo were better and Matz was an excellent 5th SP. All were relatively cheap.

 

Thats what I was thinking. Even though last years team was horribly unlucky from a run differential perspective, just seems like they were more explosive last year and were getting much better pitching on a consistent basis.