Around Baseball 2022

[Spanky__99]

That was a missile to 3rd by Aquino, lol.

[Grant77]

Mic'd up Votto was awesome.

[keggy]

maybe, but he had already shown in Toronto that he could scout + draft + develop and that he could do okay on the financial / contract side of things.

 

those two components are what he is excelling the most at in ATL

 

Anthopoulos accomplished more in 5 years than Atkins has in 7. He's just that much better now with Atlanta.

[AMS528]

Vlad would be on a 25 year $180M contract if AA was here right now.

 

I don't know if there's ever going to be a more egregious contract than the Albies one ever signed again in sports. It would be incredibly hard to top.

[jaysblue]

Anthopoulos accomplished more in 5 years than Atkins has in 7. He's just that much better now with Atlanta.

 

AA took over after the 2009 season and put together a World Series contender in 2015. It's unfortunate that he couldn't stay around longer past 2015.

 

Atkins took over after 2015 and while the Jays were World Series contenders in 2016, a lot of that was left over from AA's tenure. We'll see what the Blue Jays do this season, though don't think they're World Series contenders thus far. 2023 and 2024 are the real test IMO and like you said, Atkins is in year 7 already and likely won't be until year 8 or 9 until the Blue Jays win a World Series.

[WryNGinger]

AA took over after the 2009 season and put together a World Series contender in 2015. It's unfortunate that he couldn't stay around longer past 2015.

 

Atkins took over after 2015 and while the Jays were World Series contenders in 2016, a lot of that was left over from AA's tenure. We'll see what the Blue Jays do this season, though don't think they're World Series contenders thus far. 2023 and 2024 are the real test IMO and like you said, Atkins is in year 7 already and likely won't be until year 8 or 9 until the Blue Jays win a World Series.

 

Holy stupid-leaving-out-half-the-narrative-Batman dumb s*** is this? I don't have a hard on for this current iteration of the Jays head office but this is just lazy.

 

The AA "World Series contender" team was all-in. It was Peaks and Valleys management. Go all in once a cycle... This team and organizational depth is CLEARLY a much different model. Atkins et al are obviously trying to establish depth AND a winning product. This is really obvious honestly.

[Spanky__99]

Holy stupid-leaving-out-half-the-narrative-Batman dumb s*** is this? I don't have a hard on for this current iteration of the Jays head office but this is just lazy.

 

The AA "World Series contender" team was all-in. It was Peaks and Valleys management. Go all in once a cycle... This team and organizational depth is CLEARLY a much different model. Atkins et al are obviously trying to establish depth AND a winning product. This is really obvious honestly.

 

Tell em, bro!

[Stangstag]

Holy stupid-leaving-out-half-the-narrative-Batman dumb s*** is this? I don't have a hard on for this current iteration of the Jays head office but this is just lazy.

 

The AA "World Series contender" team was all-in. It was Peaks and Valleys management. Go all in once a cycle... This team and organizational depth is CLEARLY a much different model. Atkins et al are obviously trying to establish depth AND a winning product. This is really obvious honestly.

 

Yep I agree. And I can’t argue with it honestly. 2015-16 was “all in” and they didn’t even make it to the WS.

 

I’ll take perennial contention (making the playoffs each year) over that any day.

 

Only time will tell if the “perennial contention” model is even sustainable or not. If the team is back to hovering around 80ish wins by 2025… then yeah I would’ve preferred going all in for 2022.

[BTS]

Yep I agree. And I can’t argue with it honestly. 2015-16 was “all in” and they didn’t even make it to the WS.

 

I’ll take perennial contention (making the playoffs each year) over that any day.

 

Only time will tell if the “perennial contention” model is even sustainable or not. If the team is back to hovering around 80ish wins by 2025… then yeah I would’ve preferred going all in for 2022.

 

I'm not sure what to make of their approach. The goal is to compete every year, and usually teams who operate like that are very risk averse - even the Dodgers are really careful about who they allocate big money to. But Toronto has made a number of high risk decisions:

 

- holding on to JD for 2018, largely for PR reasons and crossing their fingers that he'd maintain value at the deadline

- 80M for Ryu

- 150M for Springer

- trading for Berrios and then giving him 130M

 

They've been a lot more open to risk, at least on the financial side, than I think any of us expected 3-4 years ago. And I'm not sure Ross has been super great at allocating that capital.

[Laika]

I'm not sure what to make of their approach. The goal is to compete every year, and usually teams who operate like that are very risk averse - even the Dodgers are really careful about who they allocate big money to. But Toronto has made a number of high risk decisions:

 

- holding on to JD for 2018, largely for PR reasons and crossing their fingers that he'd maintain value at the deadline

- 80M for Ryu

- 150M for Springer

- trading for Berrios and then giving him 130M

 

They've been a lot more open to risk, at least on the financial side, than I think any of us expected 3-4 years ago. And I'm not sure Ross has been super great at allocating that capital.

 

Nah he's been s*** at it. We can say it.

 

Okay, maybe "mediocre at best" is more fair but it sure would be nicer to have the Kikuchi + Ryu + Berrios money going towards productive stars like, say, Nolan Arenado or Paul Goldschmidt. And Springer is at best treading water on his deal...

[Krylian]

Nah he's been s*** at it. We can say it.

 

Okay, maybe "mediocre at best" is more fair but it sure would be nicer to have the Kikuchi + Ryu + Berrios money going towards productive stars like, say, Nolan Arenado or Paul Goldschmidt. And Springer is at best treading water on his deal...

 

That's generous. Performance wise, I've liked healthy Springer. But we haven't seen nearly enough of him to live up to that contract.

[BTS]

Nah he's been s*** at it. We can say it.

 

Okay, maybe "mediocre at best" is more fair but it sure would be nicer to have the Kikuchi + Ryu + Berrios money going towards productive stars like, say, Nolan Arenado or Paul Goldschmidt. And Springer is at best treading water on his deal...

 

Yeah.

 

It feels like every time the Cardinals in particular decide to make a big investment it works out great for them. Can't really remember the last major flop.

[Pendleton]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/08/rockies-to-select-wynton-bernard.html

 

32 years old and he was a 35th round pick ten years ago. Gotta love these stories

[Laika]

TIL Steven Matz had a 3.03 xFIP and an insanely good K-BB this year.

[The Cats Ass]

I'm not sure what to make of their approach. The goal is to compete every year, and usually teams who operate like that are very risk averse - even the Dodgers are really careful about who they allocate big money to. But Toronto has made a number of high risk decisions:

 

- holding on to JD for 2018, largely for PR reasons and crossing their fingers that he'd maintain value at the deadline

- 80M for Ryu

- 150M for Springer

- trading for Berrios and then giving him 130M

 

They've been a lot more open to risk, at least on the financial side, than I think any of us expected 3-4 years ago. And I'm not sure Ross has been super great at allocating that capital.

 

Sometimes their risks pay off. Gausman is looking good, and showing his 2021 is sustainable. Gausman > Ray

 

I've found there hasn't been any brutal contracts yet. Ryu is disappointing, especially after the cy young caliber first year. Springer is a break even for me. Jury is out on Berrios, hopefully this year is just a blip. Certainly no Anthony Rendon type deals.

 

These sub-ideal contracts happen with every team. AA/Braves have had some bad contracts recently as well. Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario.

 

Kikutchi is looking to be the worst decision so far. Maybe he's a bullpen candidate? Atleast his last 2 years are the cheaper ones.

[The Cats Ass]

Yeah.

 

It feels like every time the Cardinals in particular decide to make a big investment it works out great for them. Can't really remember the last major flop.

 

Matt Carpenter's last contract. Andrew Miller. Dexter Fowler.

[Laika]

The Angels owe $75.6M to Trout + Rendon until 2026.

[The Cats Ass]

The Angels owe $75.6M to Trout + Rendon until 2026.

 

That Justin Upton contract.

[G-Snarls]

If the Orioles losr every single game from here on out they'd still have their best record in 5 years

[Brownie19]

Nah he's been s*** at it. We can say it.

 

Okay, maybe "mediocre at best" is more fair but it sure would be nicer to have the Kikuchi + Ryu + Berrios money going towards productive stars like, say, Nolan Arenado or Paul Goldschmidt. And Springer is at best treading water on his deal...

 

Isn't this considered a 'good' outcome when you're talking about $150M+ contracts? I can't imagine there are many contracts like that which provide ample surplus value. I'd render a guess that 70% don't even break even in terms of value.

[BTS]

Isn't this considered a 'good' outcome when you're talking about $150M+ contracts? I can't imagine there are many contracts like that which provide ample surplus value. I'd render a guess that 70% don't even break even in terms of value.

 

You'd ideally like them to provide lots of surplus early on to make up for the expected negative value on the back end.

[The Cats Ass]

Isn't this considered a 'good' outcome when you're talking about $150M+ contracts? I can't imagine there are many contracts like that which provide ample surplus value. I'd render a guess that 70% don't even break even in terms of value.

 

Free agents always tend to get overpaid, how many from just this past offseason already look to be an overpay? Bryant, Semien, Story, Baez, Castellanos.

 

The Springer contract is looking better than all of those.

[Brownie19]

You'd ideally like them to provide lots of surplus early on to make up for the expected negative value on the back end.

 

That's fair.

[Laika]

Isn't this considered a 'good' outcome when you're talking about $150M+ contracts? I can't imagine there are many contracts like that which provide ample surplus value. I'd render a guess that 70% don't even break even in terms of value.

 

I don't think so.

 

Toronto was hoping for a couple of elite years on the front end and unfortunately it does not look like they are going to get them.

 

what BTS said

[metafour]

I don't think so.

 

Toronto was hoping for a couple of elite years on the front end and unfortunately it does not look like they are going to get them.

 

what BTS said

 

That's what teams are always hoping for, but if you look back at "top free agent signings", it's very hit or miss to even get one or two of those "elite years". Last year's mega-class seems to be like a ~50% rate at this point.

 

A lot of it is just down to luck IMO. The Braves gave Marcell Ozuna $64 mill in 2020 and he's been a negative player over the first two years of his deal. That's a considerably worse signing/outcome than Ryu who got $80 mill. And that's from a "smart team".

[Laika]

Yeah of course. You can only project with so much certainty. Any player can get hurt or perform at the lower end of their projections.

 

And most free agents are past their physical prime. I believe projections get LESS certain in a players 30s; more variance.

[Stangstag]

Nah he's been s*** at it. We can say it.

 

Okay, maybe "mediocre at best" is more fair but it sure would be nicer to have the Kikuchi + Ryu + Berrios money going towards productive stars like, say, Nolan Arenado or Paul Goldschmidt. And Springer is at best treading water on his deal...

 

How can you complain about the Berrios contract? EVERYONE thought it was a great extension at the time given his age and track record. It still could be a great contract. Who tf could know that Berrios would s*** the bed in 2022

[Laika]

How can you complain about the Berrios contract? EVERYONE thought it was a great extension at the time given his age and track record. It still could be a great contract. Who tf could know that Berrios would s*** the bed in 2022

 

I'm not really complaining about it.

 

I also don't think the Ryu contract was bad.

 

It's just a fact that Toronto is not getting optimal or great results from their free agent expenditures and free agent level extensions.

[metafour]

How can you complain about the Berrios contract? EVERYONE thought it was a great extension at the time given his age and track record. It still could be a great contract. Who tf could know that Berrios would s*** the bed in 2022

 

Exactly, a lot of this is pure revisionist history. Berrios was a 27 year old with great health. Panned as a "great extension" at the time it was made. Now it's seen as some "huge gamble" they took LOL.

 

No offense to anyone, but it's typical fan-BS. "Wooohooo! We signed Springer! f*** yeahhh!". Then it's "what a bunch of idiots, why did they take this huge risk and sign Springer?"

 

Kikuchi is the only real head-scratcher where it seemed like they were throwing big money in the hopes of performing magic.

[Laika]

Exactly, a lot of this is pure revisionist history. Berrios was a 27 year old with great health. Panned as a "great extension" at the time it was made. Now it's seen as some "huge gamble" they took LOL.

 

No offense to anyone, but it's typical fan-BS. "Wooohooo! We signed Springer! f*** yeahhh!". Then it's "what a bunch of idiots, why did they take this huge risk and sign Springer?"

 

Kikuchi is the only real head-scratcher where it seemed like they were throwing big money in the hopes of performing magic.

 

Nope, none of this.

 

If you ran an analysis for team efficiency when allocating free agent expenditures and free agent level extensions, I am just guessing that Toronto would be middle of the pack at best. Probably not a top 10 team in this regard.

 

It's fair to attribute that to bad luck if you want.

 

But there were valid criticisms for these contracts IN CONTEXT. They would be:

 

- Springer is an injury risk

- Ryu is an injury risk

- Kikuchi is just bad

- Berrios is bland / milquetoast and lacks upside on the contract

 

Of course Springer could beast later on and make his contract fine. Kikuchi could pay for his whole contract with one great season. Berrios is far from a lost cause.